Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
cmizelle
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Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby cmizelle » Mon May 06, 2019 3:32 pm

I haven't posted one of these in a while, but its always interesting to look back at where guys were going vs where they are now:

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/fiveYear.php

Give the page a second to load, it pulls the data dynamically and will update the 2019 ADP values as I update the main ADP page.
Last edited by cmizelle on Mon May 06, 2019 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon May 06, 2019 3:38 pm

Awesome, thank you!!!
TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
BREES, Jimmy G, Haskins, Lock, Keenum
COOK/JACOBS/BELL, Gurley, D Washington, Shady, Gio, Gallman, Ollison, M Davis, Rodney A
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Hilton, Edelman, Alshon, Sammy, Wims, Dez
KITTLE, Waller, Irv, Herndon, J Graham, Eifert
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring (1st year league, tanking this year to build through 2020 draft)
DARNOLD, Brissett, Rosen, Tyrod
SAQUON/MIXON, Hines, Gallman, L Miller
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/HOLLYWOOD, Edelman, R Anderson, A Tate, Coutee, G Ward
KITTLE, Ian Thomas, James O
-
Danielle Hunter and some maybes for my IDP squad.

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moishetreats
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby moishetreats » Mon May 06, 2019 8:20 pm

Thank you!!!
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Slayton, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Harmon, Meyers, S Miller
TE: Kelce, Henry, Herndon, Goedert, Jarwin, Walker, Alie-Cox, Moreau

2020: 3rd, 4thx2, 5thx3
2021: 2ndx2, 3rd, 5thx2



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Garappolo (5/20), Brissett (1/21), Rivers (11/20)
RB: Barkley (38/22) A Jones (10/22), Mixon (30/20), Lindsay (11/21), Ja Williams (3/20)
WR: Cooper (28/20), Diggs (19/21), Allen (29/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), C Davis (20/21)
TE: Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $300

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby Shcritters » Mon May 06, 2019 9:07 pm

Sooo... is the takeaway that you should trade your picks for established players?
DFFL - Luck Dynasty
12 team PPR Contract/Salary league. $331 cap limit. Starting lineup is QB, RB, RB/WR, 2 WR, WR/TE, plus IDP's (2 LB, 2 CB/S, 2 DL).

QB: Rivers ($6 - 2020), Mayfield ($4 - 2022)
RB: Chubb ($5 - 2022), Gurley ($58 - 2020), Mixon ($7 - 2023), Guice ($6 - 2022), MWilliams ($1-2024)
WR: Julio ($75 - 2019), Cooper ($12 - 2021), JuJu SS ($2 - 2023), Diggs ($2 - 2021), Watkins ($15 - 2020), MWilliams ($9 - 2022), Kirk ($2 - 2024), Isabella ($2 - 2025)
2013 and 2017 League Champion

Gopher Two
PPR WR & TE Premium (1.2 PPR for WR, 1.5 for TE), 9 total starters, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex
QB: Mahomes, Mayfield, Carr
RB: Cook, Chubb, Connor, Mattison, Ogunbowale, Richard, Crowell
WR: MThomas, Tyreek, Davis, Sutton, AJBrown, Dorsett, PRichardson, DParker, Doctson, Cain
TE: Dissly, OJHoward, McDonald, Shaheen, Vannett, Fells
2020: 1st (late), 2nd (early), 3rd, 4th

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dlf_mikeh
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby dlf_mikeh » Tue May 07, 2019 5:01 am

Thanks for posting!
Shcritters wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 9:07 pm
Sooo... is the takeaway that you should trade your picks for established players?
I did a study on this many years ago. I had the original assumption based on previous outcomes of rookie drafts. It would take three rookie picks to acquire AJ Green (for example) and you'd be guaranteed AJ Green. If you drafted 3 rookies, you aren't guaranteed a thing, and maybe even have a good chance at drafting all busts..... but you'd also have a chance at drafting 3 studs!

After tons of work, I came to the conclusion that if you constantly traded for vets, your team will never be good enough to compete for the championship, but it would also never be bad enough to finish near the bottom of the standings.

Using your rookie picks gives you a much better chance at winning the whole thing, but drafting poorly gives you a bigger chance to finish at the bottom of the standings.

Trading for Vets = higher floor, lower ceiling
Drafting Rookies = lower floor, higher ceiling
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

cmizelle
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby cmizelle » Tue May 07, 2019 6:15 am

Shcritters wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 9:07 pm
Sooo... is the takeaway that you should trade your picks for established players?
My takeaway is that this stuff is much more of a crapshoot then we want to admit :D

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby moishetreats » Tue May 07, 2019 6:30 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 5:01 am
I came to the conclusion that if you constantly traded for vets, your team will never be good enough to compete for the championship, but it would also never be bad enough to finish near the bottom of the standings.

Using your rookie picks gives you a much better chance at winning the whole thing, but drafting poorly gives you a bigger chance to finish at the bottom of the standings.

Trading for Vets = higher floor, lower ceiling
Drafting Rookies = lower floor, higher ceiling
I think that this is a gross exaggeration. My Team 1 in Sig is entering its 7th year. In the history of the league -- including the start-up!! -- I have made exactly two first-round picks. Ever. (Mixon and OJ Howard, for those who are curious). I have won the championship twice, finished in second place twice, and finished in third place twice. Yup -- I have made money in 6/6 years.

Indeed, but for Hill's troubles, I'd be the presumptive favorite for the next 2+ years, as well.

(In Team 2, I almost never bid on Rookies, either -- save $1 players who can go on my Taxi Squad. Ever. (The exception here was James Conner.) I have won 4/8 championships in the league's history.)

Suggesting that any specific path leads to a pre-determined outcome (e.g., "Trading for Vets = higher floor, lower ceiling") is one of the great traps of fantasy football.

I'm not saying that always trading your rookie picks for veterans is the path to success, nor am I arguing that one cannot build a championship team through the draft. I am saying that neither path leads to a definite outcome. It's not just the path that you chose but how you chose to walk it.
Last edited by moishetreats on Tue May 07, 2019 6:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Slayton, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Harmon, Meyers, S Miller
TE: Kelce, Henry, Herndon, Goedert, Jarwin, Walker, Alie-Cox, Moreau

2020: 3rd, 4thx2, 5thx3
2021: 2ndx2, 3rd, 5thx2



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Garappolo (5/20), Brissett (1/21), Rivers (11/20)
RB: Barkley (38/22) A Jones (10/22), Mixon (30/20), Lindsay (11/21), Ja Williams (3/20)
WR: Cooper (28/20), Diggs (19/21), Allen (29/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), C Davis (20/21)
TE: Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $300

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dlf_mikeh
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby dlf_mikeh » Tue May 07, 2019 6:34 am

moishetreats wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 6:30 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 5:01 am
I came to the conclusion that if you constantly traded for vets, your team will never be good enough to compete for the championship, but it would also never be bad enough to finish near the bottom of the standings.

Using your rookie picks gives you a much better chance at winning the whole thing, but drafting poorly gives you a bigger chance to finish at the bottom of the standings.

Trading for Vets = higher floor, lower ceiling
Drafting Rookies = lower floor, higher ceiling
I think that this is a gross exaggeration. My Team 1 in Sig is entering its 7th year. In the history of the league -- including the start-up!! -- I have made exactly two first-round picks. Ever. (Mixon and OJ Howard, for those who are curious). I have won the championship twice, finished in second place twice, and finished in third place twice. Yup -- I have made money in 6/6 years.

Indeed, but for Hill's troubles, I'd be the presumptive favorite for the next 2+ years, as well.

Suggesting that any specific path leads to a pre-determined outcome (e.g., "Trading for Vets = higher floor, lower ceiling") is one of the great traps of fantasy football.

I'm not saying that always trading your rookie picks for veterans is the path to success, nor am I arguing that one cannot build a championship team through the draft. I am saying that neither path leads to a definite outcome. It's not just the path that you chose but how you chose to walk it.
My analysis wasn't meant to be taken as an absolute. Of course there are exceptions, and a good startup draft and excellent trading changes the results. My comment was if the only trading a team ever did was rookie picks for a stud vets year after year and nothing else, assuming all teams were average and players went at average adp. Basically if the league was 100% average across the board.
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue May 07, 2019 6:41 am

Thanks for this post cmizelle. I love a good visual representation to put data into perspective. It's easier said than done and this one nails it.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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John Paul
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby John Paul » Tue May 07, 2019 6:46 am

I've been trading back as the rookie draft approaches, even so far as out of the first round to gather futures for a couple of years. Last year I had a pretty good bounty of top picks. I traded them all for established players like AJG, Mike Evans and Gronk. I even added Mixon and Cooper Kupp. In spite of injuries to AJG and Kupp, plus a goose egg from Gronk when it mattered, I still won the championship. So yes, there is a lot of hit and miss, but work the ADPs and definitely add proven vets when you can. This year I have three of the top 14 picks and plan on BPA as if I were rebuilding.

Put the work in on scouting, have guys you trust to guide you and always weigh the ADPs leading up to your draft. If your guy is tracking several picks later, trade back and pick up more booty.

Great work, cmizelle.
Last edited by John Paul on Tue May 07, 2019 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
10 Team PPR Dynasty (2012 Startup) 1st 2019 2nd
1 QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-2 TE, 1 Flex, K, LB, DB, DL(11 starters total)(30 Man Rosters, 1 IR)

QB: Aaron Rodgers(1.01/'12), Mitchell Trubisky(2.04/'17), Gardner Minshew(Trade'20), Ryan Tannehill(WW/'19)
RB: Todd Gurley(1.04/'15), Joe Mixon(Trade'18), Nick Chubb(2.08/'18), Tarik Cohen(WW/'17), Raheem Mostert(WW/'19), Kenyan Drake(Trade'20)
WR: Julio Jones(Trade '20), Mike Evans(Trade '18), Cooper Kupp(Trade '18), Allen Robinson (Trade '19), Parris Campbell(1.10/'19), Andy Isabella(2.02/'19), [IR]Hakeem Butler(2.04/'19), Diontae Johnson(WW/'19)
TE: Mark Andrews(WW/'19), Darren Waller(WW/'19), David Njoku(WW/'19)
K: Zuerlein(WW/'17)
LB: Fred Warner(WW/'19)
DB: Jabril Peppers(WW/'19), Minkah Fitzpatrick(WW/'19)
DL: Sam Hubbard(WW/'19), Josh Allen(WW/'19)

Drop 5, draft 5
2020: 3, 3, 4, 5, 5
2021: 1, 1, 1, 2, 4

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby ArrylT » Tue May 07, 2019 6:54 am

Thanks as always cmizelle for stuff like this! :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby BeeziBad » Tue May 07, 2019 6:56 am

A reminder that’s it’s a crapshoot, yes. But you if you own multiple picks, you could hit gold! Thanks Mizelle
Seattle SuperSonics 12Team - 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K - .5 PPR
QB - C. Newton, B. Mayfield, D. Brees, M. Mariota
RB - E. Elliott, L. Bell, N. Chubb, A. Peterson, J. Samuels, A. Ekeler. M. Breida, E. McGuire
WR - O. Beckham, J. Jones, A. Brown, C. Davis
TE - G. Kittle, G. Olsen
Picks - 1.06

The Jabroni Beaters - 10 team NonPPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2FLEX/DST
QB D. Watson
RB E. Elliott, M. Gordon, Duke Johnson, D. Singletary, L. McCoy, J. Samuels, A. Peterson, A. Mattison, M. Breida, I. Smith
WR O. Beckham, D. Hopkins, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Golladay, A. Robinson, C. Godwin, AJ Brown, J. Arcega-Whiteside, J. Washington
TE O. Howard

cmizelle
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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby cmizelle » Tue May 07, 2019 7:16 am

Whats crazy to me is the number of bombs. Between 2014 and 2016 (so between three and five years back)...
1) Of the 75 rookies tracked, 48 are bombs. (65%)
2) Of the 36 rookies that would make up the typical 1st round picks in a 12 team league, 18 are bombs! (50%)

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby AZK » Tue May 07, 2019 9:56 am

Thank you for posting this. One trend I am noticing is to get out of players between year 2 and 3 that you don't believe in. The longer you look back on this the more bombs there are, but some of the bombs had real value year 2 with declining value year 3 but there were still selling points.
Ainslie-Rachlin Law, "Our decisions... are guided by the perceived values at the moment of the decision - not by the potential final value."

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Re: Five Year Rookie ADP snapshot

Postby AZK » Tue May 07, 2019 10:04 am

And a plug for cmizelle because I know he won't do it himself but if you use his ADP that he provides for free, and you can spare to, you should consider a donation to him so that we can help alleviate the cost of hosting on him.
Ainslie-Rachlin Law, "Our decisions... are guided by the perceived values at the moment of the decision - not by the potential final value."


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