Undervalued TEs to target?

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blemly
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby blemly » Mon May 20, 2019 6:07 am

Blueboy wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 11:33 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 6:14 pm
blemly wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 6:29 am


See, I just don’t buy this whatsoever. If you take a look back at the TEs Arians has had over the years I think it becomes pretty clear why he didn’t rely on them too much.

Tampa Bay night not be great this year, but after Evans and Godwin there will be a lot of targets available and, if OJH can stay healthy, I think he sees a lot of them. He’s as good a bet as any to break out into the T3 conversation, but even if he stays behind them there is still a lot of value in a T5 TE.
Heath Miller was a pretty solid TE and put up 71 - 816 - 8 immediately after Arians departure. Arians depresses TE value because he likes to work the deep ball and will hold the TE in to block in order to accomplish this.
Worth noting that Howard might be the best deep-threat in the league at his position.
Agreed. But if people want to go ahead and sleep on Howard’s talent I’ll let them. I didn’t say that he would be in the T3 and fwiw don’t think the T3 will change this year, but he is still as good a bet as any to do so based on talent alone.
Team 1: 10-team 15-keeper PPR:
QB: Cousins, Winston
RB: Zeke, DJ, Kerryon, RoJo, Ajayi
WR: Hopkins, Allen, Hilton, M. Williams, Pettis, Washington, Z. Jones, Hamilton
TE: Kittle, Reed
D: CHI

Team 2: 12-team Superflex 25-man 0.5PPR, 1.0PP1D:
QB: Luck, Darnold, Carr, Jones, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Michel, Drake, McKinnon, Breida, Ballage, Anderson
WR: Evans, Cooks, Golladay, Pettis, J. Brown, Ross, Allison, Hardman, Isabella, Boykin
TE: Howard, Reed
D: CHI

Team 3: 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Cousins, Rosen, Keenum, Grier
RB: Barkley, Sanders, Williams, Drake, Armstead, B. Anderson, Smallwood
WR: Julio, Cooks, Kirk, Goodwin, Z. Jones, Wright, Dulin, Hall
TE: Howard, McDonald, Gesicki

Team 4: 12-team Superflex 28-man 3WR PPR:
QB: Watson, Garopollo, Haskins, McCown
RB: Mixon, Jacobs, Hines, Hill, Ajayi, Booker, J. Williams, R. Anderson
WR: Cooks, Edelman, AJ Brown, M. Brown, Boykin, R. Anderson, Richardson, McLaurin, Cobb, D. Thomas
TE: Howard, Rudolph

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Jigga94 » Mon May 20, 2019 6:15 am

honcho55 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:00 am
My take on Howard: he’s a no brainer for top TE asset in dynasty past the big three. Of course there’s legitimate concerns, and they’ve been brought up, but the pool isn’t very deep.

Howard was on pace to be TE 5 or 6 last year, which would’ve put him firmly in that second tier with Ebron and Cook. He outscored or was within a couple points of Ebron and Kittle for half the games through week 11. I know because I started the wrong damn one every week haha.

Anyways I’m that tier, Cook is a great redraft target, solid for a team in a window of competitiveness, but obviously: age. Ebron has an argument but personally I can’t project him to get 13 tds again.

Who else can you put up against Howard? Engram with obj out of town? Hooper to take another step? Njoku with obj and Landry ahead of him on the target list? I just don’t see it.

Don’t blame anyone for preferring cheaper options and hope they hit, but I don’t see how Howard isn’t the top bet for ascension to elite.
I agree with most of what you said. Howard is probably 4th or 5th in most dynasty ranks. Maybe (big maybe) even 3rd if someone is discounting Ertz on age?

I'm still a big Henry truther so he is 4/5 with Howard for me.

I like Njoku but am worried about him getting enough looks. I don't think he's a big RZ threat like other TE.

Engrams argument is that he was better when OBJ didn't play. I'm not that high on him to begin with though and don't project him any higher or lower without OBJ.

Ebron might not be so bad at football? Hard to tell because Luck props every TE up. If he stays in Indy, he will likely remain a top 10 option.

I like Hooper as the next name but that's not saying much...
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Luck, Baker, Tannehill
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ekeler, K. Dixon, Hines, Samuels, CJA, Ware
WR: Tyreek, Julio, Cooks, D.J. Moore, C. Davis, MVS, Hamilton, Washington, ESB
TE: Henry, Njoku, Herndon, Hooper
2019 Picks: 3.08, 3.10, 6...

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Baker, Cam, Jimmy G, Foles
RB: CMC, Kerryon, A. Jones, Hunt, J. Samuels, M. Brown
WR: D.J. Moore, Landry, Mike Will, P. Campbell, Pettis, Fuller, MVS, Hamilton, Gallup, M. Lee
TE: Henry, Hockenson, Herndon, Andrews, Goedert
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby honcho55 » Mon May 20, 2019 6:33 am

Yeah I think Ebron is a rock solid bet for decent production. But that Td count is bound to regress imo.

I’m with ya on Henry. In fact I’m my sig league I sold Kittle and gave up on Howard trade talks because I’m a fan, and don’t hate McDonald for a backup
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -4 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. Roster 15, 2 IR. keep 10 every year (must keep one each pos) *transitioning to more keepers/full dyno over a couple years

QB: Wilson, Goff, Carr, Stidham
RB: E Elliot, D Henry, M Ingram, R Armstead, J Williams, D Ozigbo, M Brown
WR. O. Beckham, J Smith-Schuster, A Cooper, J Arcega-Whiteside, P Dorsett
TE. H. Henry, V McDonald

2020 picks: four 1sts, two 3rds
(Project 2 top 3, one mid-late, one late 1st)
2021: two 1sts, four 2s, two each 3,4
2022: three 1sts, 3rd, 5th

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby turkjetfan » Mon May 20, 2019 6:43 am

honcho55 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:33 am
Yeah I think Ebron is a rock solid bet for decent production. But that Td count is bound to regress imo.

I’m with ya on Henry. In fact I’m my sig league I sold Kittle and gave up on Howard trade talks because I’m a fan, and don’t hate McDonald for a backup
I am not so sure about this re; Ebron at all. In the weeks that Doyle was active Ebron's snap share was in the 20 - 30%s. Doyle is back. This doesn't mean I think that Doyle is a consistent TE1, but what it says is even in the midst of Ebron's season when Doyle was active he got the majority of snaps. Ebron to me is a massive sell high and not a rock solid bet for decent production at all. On top of this they signed Funchess who should get his share of redzone looks.
14 team 1 pt PPR

QB: Baker, Darnold
RB: Kareem, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, Ito Smith, Jay Ajayi, Damien Harris, CJ Anderson, Dion Lewis, Corey Clement
WR: Jarvis, DK Metcalf, Robby Anderson, Tyrell Williams, Kenny Stills, Donte Moncrief, David Moore, Hakeem Butler, Miles Boykin, Scott Miller, Anthony Johnson
TE: Hooper, Doyle, Jace Sternberger

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby honcho55 » Mon May 20, 2019 8:16 am

turkjetfan wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:43 am
honcho55 wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:33 am
Yeah I think Ebron is a rock solid bet for decent production. But that Td count is bound to regress imo.

I’m with ya on Henry. In fact I’m my sig league I sold Kittle and gave up on Howard trade talks because I’m a fan, and don’t hate McDonald for a backup
I am not so sure about this re; Ebron at all. In the weeks that Doyle was active Ebron's snap share was in the 20 - 30%s. Doyle is back. This doesn't mean I think that Doyle is a consistent TE1, but what it says is even in the midst of Ebron's season when Doyle was active he got the majority of snaps. Ebron to me is a massive sell high and not a rock solid bet for decent production at all. On top of this they signed Funchess who should get his share of redzone looks.
Thats the problem with the current state of TEs: “decent production” is maybe misleading. I agree with your analysis and it’s why I don’t think Ebron belongs in the discussion with Howard for best of the rest (after ertz Kittle Kelce).

TD regression to, say 7. Some yardage drop due to less target share? Sure. He’s still in that 100-120 points group which is “decent” in terms of still being starter quality, technically.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -4 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. Roster 15, 2 IR. keep 10 every year (must keep one each pos) *transitioning to more keepers/full dyno over a couple years

QB: Wilson, Goff, Carr, Stidham
RB: E Elliot, D Henry, M Ingram, R Armstead, J Williams, D Ozigbo, M Brown
WR. O. Beckham, J Smith-Schuster, A Cooper, J Arcega-Whiteside, P Dorsett
TE. H. Henry, V McDonald

2020 picks: four 1sts, two 3rds
(Project 2 top 3, one mid-late, one late 1st)
2021: two 1sts, four 2s, two each 3,4
2022: three 1sts, 3rd, 5th

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Mon May 20, 2019 2:46 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 4:31 pm
Regardless, Howard is a fine buy right now. Unless Arians is truly a fool, Howard should get enough targets to be a mid-range TE1 in fantasy. Achieving more than that will probably require good luck with touchdowns.

I just question the notion Howard's poised for "top 3" fantasy superstardom. The target-share for that doesn't seem to be there, and the playcaller doesn't appear to be right for it, either.
This is most in-line with my thoughts. Howard can definitely be a TE1, just not sure he'll be in that elite tier. His upside is a top-5ish fantasy TE, but even if he's the TE5, I'm not sure the actual point total will be that much more than the TE10.

He also has yet to finish a season healthy since entering the league, which makes him a somewhat risky asset. His potential is exciting, but I probably wouldn't pay more than a late 1st.
Kittles Pox | Championships: 2015, 2017
12-Team PPR | QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DST
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Lamar Miller, Elijah McGuire
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Doug Baldwin
TE: Travis Kelce, George Kittle | K: Stephen Gostkowski | DST: TEN
PS: Dante Pettis, Dallas Goedert | 2019 Picks: 2.06, 2.10, 3.01, 3.03 | 2020 Picks: 2nd

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 12:05 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 10:40 am
I appreciate you putting this together. It paints an encouraging story, but my two reasons for hesitating on committing to Howard where I have him are Arians himself and Brate. You can't change a tiger's stripes and many coaches/coordinators refuse to change how they coach despite the personnel they have. Sometimes, what they've got is a poor match for "their" scheme. Sometimes, the player has more skills then what that coach demands of the position. I could imagine a future coach restricting Hockenson to 6th man blocking duties because he wants to impose his will with the run game, despite Hockenson's (presumed NFL caliber) receiving ability.

Can Arians create an offensive that gives a significant receiving role for the TEs? I'm not gonna assume that must because his offenses have been potent in the past.

My other concern is the team has a TE that Winston seems to have a strong rapport with. In fact, that connection seems stronger than what he has with Howard. Brate's proven redzone/TD skills put a cap on Howard's ceiling at a minimum.

I have Howard on a team that's been struggling at TE for something like 6 years. I don't want to bail on a young TE who clearly has a lot going for him, but I'm seriously considering taking a TE value downgrade an getting lower valued TE dart throws I like better.
Here are the Starting TE's Bruce Arians coached as an OC or HC in the NFL:

O.J. Santiago (2001)
Mark Campbell (2002)
Steve Heiden (2003)
Heath Miller (2007-2011)
Dwayne Allen (2012)
Coby Fleener (2012)
Rob Housler (2013)
John Carlson (2014)
Jermaine Gresham (2015-2017)

Which TE's on that list would you say were underused by Arians in relation to their talent and ability? The issue isn't that Arians offense isn't friendly towards TE's. The issue is that Arians never has coached a team where the TE was one of the teams best playmakers. Heath Miller was the closest thing he had and Miller posted one of his best seasons under Arians. Howard's talent is clear and obvious. I can't imagine Arians looking at him and regulating him to blocking duties.

As far as Cameron Brate, I wouldn't be concerned at all outside of 3rd down and RZ. Brate got 49 targets last year and TB is starting to use him less with how well Howard has played.
Needless to say, that's an unimpressive list. But, my concerns with Howard have nothing to do with that list. I question if Arians even knows how to create an offense that features the TE. If you gave him KC's 2018 roster, would Kelce get relegated to third or lower in the pecking order? The fact he didn't get production from that motley crew doesn't mean the only logical conclusion is he will feature the TE now that he has a talented one.

On the Brate thing- everyone talks about the loss of DJax and Humphries when hyping OJH and Godwin. But, there's already talk about the depth WRs. If Godwin really does get pushed into the slot and a WR or two earns snaps opposite Evans, Howard could be relegated to a bit player. Add his history of injuries and competition with Brate for TE looks (which may be elevated as the two best mid-field guys) and Howard's target/touch floor is pretty low. The projected offensive potency, limited run game forcing the offense to move through the air and pecking order questions behind Evans create a hypothetically high ceiling, but the ceiling could be lowered once the target order gets solidified.

I think the real play here is packaging him up for a truly elite TE.
14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, R/W/T
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
R Wilson, Brees
Zeke, D Freeman, Yeldon, Breida, E McGuire, Ajayi, Darwin Thompson, R Armstead, James Williams
Hopkins, Evans, R Anderson, Marvin Jones, Moncrief, A Wilson, D Cain, Conley, G Jennings
Kittle, Jimmy G, Dissly, K Warring

IDP core- DT Kenny Clark; DEs Watt, Ngakoue; LBs David, K Mack
2020- 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3
2021- 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm
Needless to say, that's an unimpressive list. But, my concerns with Howard have nothing to do with that list. I question if Arians even knows how to create an offense that features the TE. If you gave him KC's 2018 roster, would Kelce get relegated to third or lower in the pecking order? The fact he didn't get production from that motley crew doesn't mean the only logical conclusion is he will feature the TE now that he has a talented one.

On the Brate thing- everyone talks about the loss of DJax and Humphries when hyping OJH and Godwin. But, there's already talk about the depth WRs. If Godwin really does get pushed into the slot and a WR or two earns snaps opposite Evans, Howard could be relegated to a bit player. Add his history of injuries and competition with Brate for TE looks (which may be elevated as the two best mid-field guys) and Howard's target/touch floor is pretty low. The projected offensive potency, limited run game forcing the offense to move through the air and pecking order questions behind Evans create a hypothetically high ceiling, but the ceiling could be lowered once the target order gets solidified.

I think the real play here is packaging him up for a truly elite TE.
This is the mistake we make in dynasty (and I'm guilty of it too). Look at Kansas City for instance. Matt Nagy was the OC for Travis Kelce, gets hired by Chicago and then people assume that Trey Burton is taking on the "Kelce Role." There is no Kelce role. Teams (smart teams) simply get the ball to their best players. The Cowboys lost Jason Witten and people assumed that some random TE would take on the "Witten role." There is no Witten role.

Just because he hasn't built an offense around a TE doesn't mean he will never do it. Coaches adapt to their best players. O.J. Howard is one of TB's best players---don't overthink this. Howard is a complete TE who will rarely have to leave the field. Brate will play, but there's no competition between him and Howard. Brate isn't remotely as good as him.

I agree with you that if you can sell Howard+ for Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, then it's an easy call. However, I doubt that's appealing without some sort of significant asset coming with Howard.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon May 20, 2019 7:15 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 pm
This is the mistake we make in dynasty (and I'm guilty of it too). Look at Kansas City for instance. Matt Nagy was the OC for Travis Kelce, gets hired by Chicago and then people assume that Trey Burton is taking on the "Kelce Role." There is no Kelce role. Teams (smart teams) simply get the ball to their best players. The Cowboys lost Jason Witten and people assumed that some random TE would take on the "Witten role." There is no Witten role.

Just because he hasn't built an offense around a TE doesn't mean he will never do it. Coaches adapt to their best players. O.J. Howard is one of TB's best players---don't overthink this. Howard is a complete TE who will rarely have to leave the field. Brate will play, but there's no competition between him and Howard. Brate isn't remotely as good as him.

I agree with you that if you can sell Howard+ for Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, then it's an easy call. However, I doubt that's appealing without some sort of significant asset coming with Howard.
I agree that assuming a coach features a position without regarding to the personnel and skills on the roster has its pitfalls, and can lead people astray. I also believe thinking coaches and coordinators accurately and agnostically evaluate the roster's players strengths and skills is inaccurate, as well.

You specified "smart" teams put the ball in the hands of their best players. What about the non-"smart" coaches? What determines which ones are smart? Offensive potency? I'll never forget Mike Martz not featuring Olsen because TEs are for blocking in "his" scheme.

Certainly the argument in terms of target competition is weaker than questioning Arians' coaching history. Brate stealing so many snaps/targets is concerning, but couching an argument on depth and UDFA WRs and offseason rumors/hype is weak azz.

I agree Howard is one of the most talented Bucs, but rostering him feels like you're waiting for him to hit FA, to have an opportunity to consistently hit his ceiling.
14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, R/W/T
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex
R Wilson, Brees
Zeke, D Freeman, Yeldon, Breida, E McGuire, Ajayi, Darwin Thompson, R Armstead, James Williams
Hopkins, Evans, R Anderson, Marvin Jones, Moncrief, A Wilson, D Cain, Conley, G Jennings
Kittle, Jimmy G, Dissly, K Warring

IDP core- DT Kenny Clark; DEs Watt, Ngakoue; LBs David, K Mack
2020- 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3
2021- 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 20, 2019 7:26 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 7:15 pm
I agree that assuming a coach features a position without regarding to the personnel and skills on the roster has its pitfalls, and can lead people astray. I also believe thinking coaches and coordinators accurately and agnostically evaluate the roster's players strengths and skills is inaccurate, as well.

You specified "smart" teams put the ball in the hands of their best players. What about the non-"smart" coaches? What determines which ones are smart? Offensive potency? I'll never forget Mike Martz not featuring Olsen because TEs are for blocking in "his" scheme.

Certainly the argument in terms of target competition is weaker than questioning Arians' coaching history. Brate stealing so many snaps/targets is concerning, but couching an argument on depth and UDFA WRs and offseason rumors/hype is weak azz.

I agree Howard is one of the most talented Bucs, but rostering him feels like you're waiting for him to hit FA, to have an opportunity to consistently hit his ceiling.
Well, Bruce Arians is highly regarded as an offensive mind and generally seen as a competent coach. At least to me, I can't see him marginalizing one of his best players. I don't see Brate as concerning, considering he's not a better player and already saw a decline in usage and role with Howard last year.

I don't see Howard as some lottery ticket that you're waiting on for free agency. He's already really good and had a rare 2nd-year TE breakout cut short because of injury. He's a complete TE, will play a lot and be a big factor in the passing game.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ericanadian » Tue May 21, 2019 4:26 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm
Needless to say, that's an unimpressive list. But, my concerns with Howard have nothing to do with that list. I question if Arians even knows how to create an offense that features the TE. If you gave him KC's 2018 roster, would Kelce get relegated to third or lower in the pecking order? The fact he didn't get production from that motley crew doesn't mean the only logical conclusion is he will feature the TE now that he has a talented one.

On the Brate thing- everyone talks about the loss of DJax and Humphries when hyping OJH and Godwin. But, there's already talk about the depth WRs. If Godwin really does get pushed into the slot and a WR or two earns snaps opposite Evans, Howard could be relegated to a bit player. Add his history of injuries and competition with Brate for TE looks (which may be elevated as the two best mid-field guys) and Howard's target/touch floor is pretty low. The projected offensive potency, limited run game forcing the offense to move through the air and pecking order questions behind Evans create a hypothetically high ceiling, but the ceiling could be lowered once the target order gets solidified.

I think the real play here is packaging him up for a truly elite TE.
This is the mistake we make in dynasty (and I'm guilty of it too). Look at Kansas City for instance. Matt Nagy was the OC for Travis Kelce, gets hired by Chicago and then people assume that Trey Burton is taking on the "Kelce Role." There is no Kelce role. Teams (smart teams) simply get the ball to their best players. The Cowboys lost Jason Witten and people assumed that some random TE would take on the "Witten role." There is no Witten role.

Just because he hasn't built an offense around a TE doesn't mean he will never do it. Coaches adapt to their best players. O.J. Howard is one of TB's best players---don't overthink this. Howard is a complete TE who will rarely have to leave the field. Brate will play, but there's no competition between him and Howard. Brate isn't remotely as good as him.

I agree with you that if you can sell Howard+ for Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, then it's an easy call. However, I doubt that's appealing without some sort of significant asset coming with Howard.
Big difference between a disciple coming over (that was Andy Reid’s offense in KC) and a coach with a long track record like Arians, but sure, he could change things up. I think people keep looking at the wrong side of this equation though. Howard is an elite receiving weapon, but he is also an elite blocker. If Howard goes deep, who will be staying in to block? It seems like you guys think this is about Arians just not having routes for the TE. It’s not. Arians needs guys to stay back and block for the routes on his deep balls to progress. Generally that’s the TE. It’s possible that he’ll foist the blocking duties off on another TE, but if they struggle to keep Winston upright, he’s going to prioritize blocking over receiving when he has Evans and Godwin as alternatives and you don’t often stay in to block and receive on the same play.
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QB - Mariota, Stafford, Carr
RB - Gordon, Martin, Penny, Foreman, Guice, Zenner
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee
TE - Kelce, Henry, Andrews, I. Thomas
LB - Kuechly, J. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Hurst
DB - D. James, Baker, Berry
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Weknownothing86 » Tue May 21, 2019 6:50 am

"The Overthink" is strong in this thread. I don't own Howard but he is a really good TE and will produce in an Arians offense since he is the 2nd or 3rd best offensive weapon. Its that simple. He is a great buy low if any of the owners in your league feel the way some do in this thread. He wont put up top 3 numbers but i see him being in the top 5-6.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue May 21, 2019 10:41 am

ericanadian wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 4:26 am
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 pm
Pullo Vision wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm
Needless to say, that's an unimpressive list. But, my concerns with Howard have nothing to do with that list. I question if Arians even knows how to create an offense that features the TE. If you gave him KC's 2018 roster, would Kelce get relegated to third or lower in the pecking order? The fact he didn't get production from that motley crew doesn't mean the only logical conclusion is he will feature the TE now that he has a talented one.

On the Brate thing- everyone talks about the loss of DJax and Humphries when hyping OJH and Godwin. But, there's already talk about the depth WRs. If Godwin really does get pushed into the slot and a WR or two earns snaps opposite Evans, Howard could be relegated to a bit player. Add his history of injuries and competition with Brate for TE looks (which may be elevated as the two best mid-field guys) and Howard's target/touch floor is pretty low. The projected offensive potency, limited run game forcing the offense to move through the air and pecking order questions behind Evans create a hypothetically high ceiling, but the ceiling could be lowered once the target order gets solidified.

I think the real play here is packaging him up for a truly elite TE.
This is the mistake we make in dynasty (and I'm guilty of it too). Look at Kansas City for instance. Matt Nagy was the OC for Travis Kelce, gets hired by Chicago and then people assume that Trey Burton is taking on the "Kelce Role." There is no Kelce role. Teams (smart teams) simply get the ball to their best players. The Cowboys lost Jason Witten and people assumed that some random TE would take on the "Witten role." There is no Witten role.

Just because he hasn't built an offense around a TE doesn't mean he will never do it. Coaches adapt to their best players. O.J. Howard is one of TB's best players---don't overthink this. Howard is a complete TE who will rarely have to leave the field. Brate will play, but there's no competition between him and Howard. Brate isn't remotely as good as him.

I agree with you that if you can sell Howard+ for Kelce, Ertz or Kittle, then it's an easy call. However, I doubt that's appealing without some sort of significant asset coming with Howard.
Big difference between a disciple coming over (that was Andy Reid’s offense in KC) and a coach with a long track record like Arians, but sure, he could change things up. I think people keep looking at the wrong side of this equation though. Howard is an elite receiving weapon, but he is also an elite blocker. If Howard goes deep, who will be staying in to block? It seems like you guys think this is about Arians just not having routes for the TE. It’s not. Arians needs guys to stay back and block for the routes on his deep balls to progress. Generally that’s the TE. It’s possible that he’ll foist the blocking duties off on another TE, but if they struggle to keep Winston upright, he’s going to prioritize blocking over receiving when he has Evans and Godwin as alternatives and you don’t often stay in to block and receive on the same play.
....the offensive line will block and Arians will send the freak of nature TE down the field to catch passes. They're not going to limit one of their best players to being a blocker. Arians is too smart for that.

Krypto_King
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Krypto_King » Tue May 21, 2019 2:07 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 2:10 pm
Krypto_King wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 12:01 pm
Ertz and Kittle were the only show in town last year, I think they come back to OJH just as much as he rises to them. Kelce is on an island this year
Regarding Ertz... he has been remarkably consistent the last four years, so the outlier reception total last year isn't so strange. Jeffery was there, and Agholor, and then Golden Tate too after Week 8, so Ertz wasn't "the only show in town" at all. Wentz loves throwing to Ertz, and to the middle of the field in general, and Pedersen is content to oblige him. Ertz remains the best bet for targets leader again in Philly if he plays 16 games.

Regarding Kittle... if not an island, he's still on a peninsula. Pettis's expected breakout would siphon some targets away, but beyond Pettis, who else profiles for a major target load in '19? Deebo is a rookie. It's plausible -- perhaps likely -- Kittle will remain the #1a or #1b for targets in SF.
I hear ya but Sanders/Joho is a big upgrade to the running game. DJax >> Mike Wallace? was he last year?. Year 2 Goedert > Year 1 Goedert. JJAW
Same in SF. Healthier, more + better RBs. Healthy Pettis, Goodwin + Deebo >> Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor + Pierre Garcon.

They are still TE 2/3 in re-draft but even 1-2 less targets a week is significant

ericanadian
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ericanadian » Tue May 21, 2019 7:05 pm

Eric Swoope just got worth a look.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Mariota, Stafford, Carr
RB - Gordon, Martin, Penny, Foreman, Guice, Zenner
WR - Julio, C. Davis, Watkins, Samuel, Lee
TE - Kelce, Henry, Andrews, I. Thomas
LB - Kuechly, J. Smith
DL - Ansah, Hunter, Hurst
DB - D. James, Baker, Berry
K - Just a stupid kicker


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