blemly wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 6:29 am
ninotoreS wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 1:56 am
Arians will have to turn over a new leaf with regard to TE pass-game usage for Howard to get up there with Kelce, Kittle, Ertz. etc.
See, I just don’t buy this whatsoever. If you take a look back at the TEs Arians has had over the years I think it becomes pretty clear why he didn’t rely on them too much.
Tampa Bay night not be great this year, but after Evans and Godwin there will be a lot of targets available and, if OJH can stay healthy, I think he sees a lot of them. He’s as good a bet as any to break out into the T3 conversation, but even if he stays behind them there is still a lot of value in a T5 TE.
The degree of TE talent Arians has or has not had in the past isn't essential to my point.
(Which, btw, if he's never had an elite TE before, have you considered that maybe it's because
he never wanted one? Still tangential to my point, though)
after Evans and Godwin there will be a lot of targets available
Here's the problem:
that's unlikely to be enough targets to make Howard produce numbers on the Kelce/Ertz/Kittle level.
The 'top 3' fantasy TEs are usually characterized by a key circumstance: they are typically the #1 or #1b (or whatever) in their offense for pass-targets; they are at the top of the target totem-pole, or
right below it. When there are exceptions to this rule, it's usually by grace of TD overachievement.
So I'm saying that for Howard to enter that territory of elite, every-week production, most liikely Arians would have to implement a system that emphasizes the TE as a pass-catcher to such an extent that it'll
artificially manufacture more targets for Howard at Godwin and/or Evans' direct expense.
The Kelce/Ertz/Kittle zone for fantasy TE production is a rarified height -- it's so far above other TE1s that it's exasperating that we even nominally put them in the same category. To enter this hyper-elite echelon of fantasy TE production, Howard would probably have to usurp one of the top WRs for target-share completely, and significantly cut into the other's targets. Arians, in all his career, has never curtailed the target-share of talented WRs to feed a TE instead, even if he might be talented, too. (historical note: Rob Housler in Arizona was an excellent pass-catching TE prospect, so don't tell me Arians has never had high-ceiling talent at the position to mold and utilize)
All with Jameis Winston 'serving the pie'. Not to mention that Brate is returning.
Good luck! It's not a bet I'll make. I think for Howard to produce on the Kelce/Ertz/Kittle level, Evans or Godwin would have to suffer a season-ending injury early in the year.
Krypto_King wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 12:01 pm
Ertz and Kittle were the only show in town last year, I think they come back to OJH just as much as he rises to them. Kelce is on an island this year
Regarding Ertz... he has been remarkably consistent the last four years, so the outlier reception total last year isn't
so strange. Jeffery was there, and Agholor, and then Golden Tate too after Week 8, so Ertz wasn't "the only show in town" at all. Wentz loves throwing to Ertz, and to the middle of the field in general, and Pedersen is content to oblige him. Ertz remains the best bet for targets leader again in Philly if he plays 16 games.
Regarding Kittle... if not an island, he's still on a peninsula. Pettis's expected breakout would siphon some targets away, but beyond Pettis, who else profiles for a major target load in '19? Deebo is a rookie. It's plausible -- perhaps likely -- Kittle will remain the #1a or #1b for targets in SF.