Undervalued TEs to target?

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Sriracha
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:46 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm
Pullo Vision wrote: Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.
For those who think Arians can't use TEs.

He made Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener relevant... you think he can't use OJ Howard? :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Space Cowboy » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:19 am

wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:12 am Keep an eye on Knox in BUF, and Waller in OAK.
Jason Croom made some plays down the stretch. Name to monitor as we get into August and things pick up. Bills passing attack is wide open for targets.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:25 am

ArrylT wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:56 pm Ironically enough Jermaine Gresham & Coby Fleener were also TEs that were highly drafted and highly coveted coming out. I do not think using them as reasons why Arians had bad TEs is a legit argument.

https://www.sbnation.com/2009/10/11/108 ... ne-gresham
https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/17/2954 ... ing-report
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/115 ... ect#slide5
Fleener is out of the league and had 1 solid season. Gresham was with Arians on the downside of his career. Neither player is as talented or as complete as Howard.

Arians historically has coached bad and limited TEs.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:30 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:25 am
ArrylT wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:56 pm Ironically enough Jermaine Gresham & Coby Fleener were also TEs that were highly drafted and highly coveted coming out. I do not think using them as reasons why Arians had bad TEs is a legit argument.

https://www.sbnation.com/2009/10/11/108 ... ne-gresham
https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/17/2954 ... ing-report
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/115 ... ect#slide5
Fleener is out of the league and had 1 solid season. Gresham was with Arians on the downside of his career. Neither player is as talented or as complete as Howard.

Arians historically has coached bad and limited TEs.
My point exactly. These guys aren't good players and they were still relevant when Arians was their coach.

The coaching correlation trap is strong, here. Smart coaches let personnel dictate usage, they aren't stuck in one philosophy, they're flexible. Arians is a good offensive mind.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ericanadian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:57 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:46 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu May 23, 2019 8:49 pm
Pullo Vision wrote: Thu May 23, 2019 4:21 pm He's not a straight up lottery ticket, but I could see him failing to reach his statistical ceiling with Arians. In a way, you could compare him to Landry- he produced well enough to be worth owning and starting, but there was real excitement over the idea of him leaving Tannehill and the coaching carousel at Miami so he could be used more downfield.

I don't envision Arians leaving soon (unless he retires again) so Howard's only prayer of truly flexing his muscles and being more than a mid range guy at his position could easily be leaving. Injury, target-share and role could all limit him. Given how many years before that he can leave, I'd rather flip that value into something else. That said, I wouldn't take a 2019 1st for him.
I still feel like you're overthinking this. Arians isn't some restricter of TE's. If anything, his offense is super-friendly to big play talents who can also run a variety of routes. His three best players on offense: Evans, Godwin, Howard just so happen to be that. Howard is in a great, high upside situation right now. Not to mention, from a fantasy standpoint the Bucs project to be one of the most pass happy teams in the league. Their defense still blows chunks and they have zero running game.

Howard's role isn't going to be challenged by anyone. He's the guy. Cameron Brate isn't that good and already lost heavy usage to Howard last year. He's the clear #2.

Also, keep this in mind (courtesy of Evan Silva):

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* In 2018, Howard was 1st in yard per reception (11.8)

* In 2018, Howard was 3rd in targets over 15+ from LOS (35%)

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

There is no chance that Arians is watching tape of Howard running routes downfield and thinking "You know what? I should make him just a blocker and send that Cameron Brate guy out there to catch everything!"

Buy Howard (and Godwin) while you still can.
For those who think Arians can't use TEs.

He made Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener relevant... you think he can't use OJ Howard? :lol: :lol: :lol:
Allen was okay under Arians (45 - 521 - 3), but I think you’re confusing Arians for Pip Hamilton if you think Fleener did well under Arians.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:16 pm

You are correct @ericanadian, that was a pretty impressive rookie season for Dwayne Allen though lol

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:44 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:30 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:25 am
ArrylT wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 8:56 pm Ironically enough Jermaine Gresham & Coby Fleener were also TEs that were highly drafted and highly coveted coming out. I do not think using them as reasons why Arians had bad TEs is a legit argument.

https://www.sbnation.com/2009/10/11/108 ... ne-gresham
https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/17/2954 ... ing-report
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/115 ... ect#slide5
Fleener is out of the league and had 1 solid season. Gresham was with Arians on the downside of his career. Neither player is as talented or as complete as Howard.

Arians historically has coached bad and limited TEs.
My point exactly. These guys aren't good players and they were still relevant when Arians was their coach.

The coaching correlation trap is strong, here. Smart coaches let personnel dictate usage, they aren't stuck in one philosophy, they're flexible. Arians is a good offensive mind.
I am not making an argument that Arians cannot or will not use TEs - I am simply stating that using those guys as a reason why he has only had "bad" TEs is not a legit argument. I completely agree with you that Arians is the type of Coach will use the personnel he has to the best of their ability.

Coby Fleener only played his rookie season with Arians. Fantasy wise he had 2 high end TE and 1 TE1 season - none of which were with Arians. So a Rookie TE when the vast majority of TEs in their Rookie year are not going to have strong statistical production should not be used as an argument for/against Arians willingness to use TEs.

Jermaine Gresham was graded as one of the best blocking TEs so it made sense to use him in that capacity when they had John Brown, Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald & David Johnson to use in receiving situations.

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2016/06/ ... s-per-pff/
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Plank » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:32 pm

A strength of Jameis is throwing the seam pass, if Arians truly plays to the strength of his players as he is known to do, I think Howard will have a fine year if he stays healthy ...
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Plank » Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:34 pm

I'm not done watching all of CHI's games yet, but like up to W6, Burton was used on the ISO side like Kelce in Reid's offense .. if that continues, I say Burton has the most to gain in CHI .. if Shaheen ever goes ISO, I would be very interested, otherwise, I'm not so sure ..

I'm also curious with Seals-Jones in Kingsbury system, after watching ARI's season, I would throw a little capital at him (not much, but a 3rd or something, if I had a lot of room on my roster)
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby DynastyDabbler » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:10 pm

Space Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:19 am
wickerkat1212 wrote: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:12 am Keep an eye on Knox in BUF, and Waller in OAK.
Jason Croom made some plays down the stretch. Name to monitor as we get into August and things pick up. Bills passing attack is wide open for targets.
I really like Croom and Knox. I remember Croom had a nice 1 handed grab in the end zone against the Patriots. I feel like one of them will be a decent TE this year. Maybe a bye week type of guy.
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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Phaded » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:26 pm

Josh Oliver.

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:23 pm

Phaded wrote: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:26 pmJosh Oliver.
Knox & Oliver have definitely been getting a lot of buzz from what I've noticed - I am not sure how well they'll do from a 1st year perspective but will be interesting to see how they develop.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Pew Dogs » Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:04 am

I think Gerald Everett may well finish top 12.

- was #10 TE from games 9-16 last year
- very steady production during that span
- neither of the three WRs are big red zone targets
- Gurley was, and if scaled back opens up more
- 3rd year player got increased playing time as year went on
- if staff wants to reign Goff in a bit he may utilize TE more
- is having great camp
- I just traded for him and emailed him so he’ll be extra motivated
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TE T.Hockenson

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby Phaded » Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:32 am

ArrylT wrote:Knox & Oliver have definitely been getting a lot of buzz from what I've noticed - I am not sure how well they'll do from a 1st year perspective but will be interesting to see how they develop.
TEs obviously take a while to develop, but Nick Foles also loves himself some TE.
Pew Dogs wrote:I think Gerald Everett may well finish top 12.
I love Everett and think he is a great talent. I even drafted him to be a TE commitee with Gesicki.
However, I think he is more likely to be more valuable in real life than fantasy.
It is hard to imagine him getting enough targets to be reliable in fantasy

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Re: Undervalued TEs to target?

Postby sugbear65 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:40 am

For those in TE premium or 2TE, word from Redskin’s camp is Donald Parham making the most of his reps, and showing an early chemistry with Haskins. An uphill climb but may be worth throwing on the watchlist at least, just in case. Not like Washington is overflowing with dependable pass catchers.*

* copy and pasted from another thread, but felt relevant here too


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