Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

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Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Phaded » Fri May 03, 2019 7:58 pm

So now that I have acquired him where I am able to; I am going to post this.
You can disagree or agree. I planted my flag on a rookie bust in another thread.
Now, I am planting my flag for a story of what I believe will be success.

Matt Breida
Let's go..

His college career
In his first two years - his exploded statistically in college.
He rushed for a total of 374 attempts, 3094 yards and 34 touchdowns.
His third year was a different story - 168 attempts, 646 yards and 3 touchdowns.
In his third year - the team had a new head coach who tried to employ a new offense, it went horribly wrong.
His YPC of 8.7 & 7.9 were the two best marks in the history of his school.

The combine and the draft
He was not invited to the combine due to his third year performance.
He then had to rely on the combine; where he showed off his athleticism.
He ran a 4.39 40 with a 1.53 10 yard & 2.50 20 yard split.
He ran a 6.85 3-cone, had a 42-inch vertical jump and a 11'2" broad jump.
He also bench pressed 23 reps.
These numbers would have put him amongst the top of the combine of running backs.
He went undrafted - but the 49ers signed him.

So that is some background, what about the NFL?
He has had very limited opportunities, but when given the chance he has absolutely made something out of it.
In 2017 - he did not get much of a chance as he played backup to Carlos Hyde. He flashed a little bit, but that is just about it.

Enter 2018
The 49ers offense looks to be in shambles. Newly signed quarterback, Jimmy G is out for the year.
Highly paid and sought after weapon of Shanahan, Jerick McKinnon is out for the year.
Not only this - but they lose their field stretcher in Marquise Goodwin.
So in other words, they have nothing at quarterback - next to nothing at WR; and George Kittle.
We also have Matt Breida, who capitalized on the opportunities turning 14 games into 153 attempts, 814 yards, 27 receptions, 261 yards and 5 touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 receiving).
He was able to do this despite the offense having nothing.

The 49ers offensive line is good - but Matt Breida is even better
Both PFF and Football Outsiders ranked the 49ers as the 10th best run blocking line. That is pretty good.
However, what goes unnoticed is what Matt Breida did with that offensive line.
Football Outsiders uses a statistic called "adjusted line yards" which is essentially how many yards the running backs should get on any given rush attempt on average. Now unfortunately, it does not break down the RB yards on average; only the total of RBs on that team. However, we can still compare the YPC that player got for the year.

The 49ers had an adjusted line yards of 4.56. Breida had 5.3YPC; so he got +.7YPC more than he technically should have been getting.

Just how good is this?
Let's compare it to the top five teams just for arguments sake (some of the best running games in the league)
Rams: 5.49 | Gurley: 4.9YPC | -.6YPC
Saints: 5.19 | Kamara: 4.6YPC / Ingram 4.7YPC | -.6YPC / -.5YPC
Pats: 5.03 | Michel: 4.5YPC / -.5YPC
Colts: 4.83 | Mack: 4.7YPC / -.1YPC
Chargers: 4.80 | Gordon: 5.1YPC / +.3YPC

As you can see, in the top 5 offenses; the only RB who got more than what their offensive line was giving them was Melvin Gordon. Even he had only +.3YPC, whereas Breida had +.7YPC, nearly a +1.0YPC swing over guys like Gurley & Kamara.

Now, this is not a flawless stat - but just one to consider.

Even when you try to stop him, he can still succeed
Per NFL Next Gen Stats; Matt Breida faced a stacked box (8+ defenders in the box) on 25.49% of his carries.
Among the 28 running backs who had 150+ carries in 2018, this is the 10th highest percentage of stacked boxes faced.
Just think what will happen if teams cannot do this and have to respect the pass game.

SPARQ! Athleticism! METRICS! WOOHOO!
For you metrics and athlete lovers, he is an 89th percentile SPARQ athlete.
Oh - and his burst score is an absurd 99th percentile (which absolutely shows up on tape).
In addition to this, per Next Gen Stats, no player ran faster on a play than Breida did in 2018 at 22.09mph (yes, even faster than Tyreek Hill & Saquon Barkley).

Okay but they signed Tevin Coleman..
This is true - they did. However, Coleman was signed to nothing more than back-up and change of pace money.
On the surface - yes, it is a 2yr/8.5m contract which sounds nice.
However, it is actually a 1yr/3.6m contract with a team option as he can be cut with no dead money after this year.
People will use the Shanahan argument - but this is not contract that a team with a ton of cap space would give a perceived difference maker.
My best guess is that Coleman is there to be a change of pace / insurance policy for when McKinnon goes down again.

They didn't cut McKinnon!
This is true, they did not - and they could have.
However, we have seen what McKinnon has to offer. He's a decent pass catching back, but nothing more than that.
Not to mention, he is known for his athleticism - it remains to be seen how he recovered from the injury and if that changed his explosiveness.

But they are both better pass catchers than Breida is..
Are they though? Fun facts about 2018..
PFF graded Breida 90.1 for receiving as a running back.
For reference, he edged out Kamara (89.4), McCaffrey (89.3) & Barkley (86.4).
...yes, I am saying that Breida was the #1 receiving back per PFF; ahead of the receiving studs above.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Yes, he has not been heavily utilized in the receiving game.. yet.
When they start using him there - watch out.
He was also one of two running backs to catch all catchable targets (Kerryon was the other).

But the situation sucks!
Ah yes - this we can agree upon, for now.
On paper, this is a messy backfield that you probably want no part of; but patience would be require, maybe not as much patience as you think.
McKinnon & Coleman could both feasibly be on their way out soon.
I don't think Shanahan is silly enough to let his best running back ride the bench.
We have seen it many times in just recent years; perceived poor situations can change extremely fast for a running back.

He was undrafted!
Yes, he was.
However, he has proven he belongs in the NFL. His draft status should not mean anything at this point, once you prove you belong in the NFL - you are there.

2019 and beyond
The 49ers are a team on the rise. Jimmy G will be back and healthy.
They have added numerous pieces to the offense. They have a good run blocking line. This offense could surprise people, and things are going to open up for Matt Breida a bit. Even if he starts in a bit of a committee with Coleman & McKinnon, it will keep his legs fresh. I believe as the season goes on though, the running game will begin to run more through Breida than either of the other two backs.

So, go get him now while he is still cheap.

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby ArrylT » Fri May 03, 2019 8:03 pm

Sounds like an ideal target for best ball dynasties or leagues with multiple flex positions. :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby honcho55 » Fri May 03, 2019 8:24 pm

I was never a big Breida guy. More I see more I like though.

Also McKinnon and Coleman are THE two best examples in the NFL I can think of, if you’re looking for a nice complimentary back.

So yeah, at this current price I can get behind this post!
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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby blemly » Fri May 03, 2019 9:06 pm

Nice writeup, Phaded. Not to mention it fits my bias towards him!
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Fri May 03, 2019 9:31 pm

That’s a lot of good information but you left out one big detail which is that he is sub 200 lbs.

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby FantasyDumDum » Fri May 03, 2019 9:47 pm

Thank you, fantastic content.

I’m a Breida owner and Niners fan, and I am super high on him as a player, but I also majorly question Shanahan’s plans and how they affect the fantasy value of his backs. Aka why the hell did he bring in Coleman when Breida has looked so good? Injuries I guess. If given the starter job or even the 1B, and if I injured, Breida could be great. As much as I love him though he has some downsides as a dynasty asset which is why his value is a mid/late 2nd nowadays. I’m holding him and hoping his opportunity goes up here, that he signs a longer term 2nd contract with the 49ers, or as a starter in another good situation after this year
10 team, .5ppr, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: CMC, D Williams, Drake, Guice, Penny, RoJo, Breida, I Smith, Edmonds
WR: AB, ARob, Ridley, Jeffery, Shepard, Pettis, Miller, Washington, MVS, Callaway
TE: Kelce, Herndon, Andrews

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Friction » Fri May 03, 2019 11:17 pm

Solid points and I respect the hustle on that flag plant. I was wondering why you traded your boy Diontae so quick today. I like Breida at his price point and will for sure be targeting him in some redrafts. Dynasty I might grab him in the league I have Tevin too. It makes sense and hedges things a bit.
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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby ninotoreS » Fri May 03, 2019 11:24 pm

If I had a gun to my head to pick just one, Breida would be my guy, too.

But I'm not a very interested buyer, because of the one issue you didn't say anything about in that long, well organized post: Breida's struggles to remain healthy last year are logical considering his weight and BMI (he's built like a friggin slot-receiver), and I'm concerned that's just gonna be the on-going reality with him. He didn't have one game with 20+ carries, and yet even that moderate usage (around 15 touches a week, from eyeballing the gamelog) still wore him down.

And I think this was a factor in SF signing Coleman and retaining McKinnon -- they're not confident in Breida's ability to stay healthy with a leadback load, either.

If I could get him for an RB3 price, I'd consider it. But I doubt I can.
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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby trc » Sat May 04, 2019 2:45 am

I am that guy.

PFF stats are truly nice, but I recall years ago they had Tannehill as one of the highest ranking QBs.
Just saying, don't put all eggs in 1 basket because of stats.

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Phaded » Sat May 04, 2019 5:46 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 03, 2019 9:31 pm That’s a lot of good information but you left out one big detail which is that he is sub 200 lbs.
I thought about including this - however; much like with other players, it is hard to definitely find the correction information.
I found places where he was listed at 190, 195 & 200.
Heck - not everyone even agrees on his height, where I see some listing him at 5'11" and some listing him at 5'9".
Who knows what to believe.
Friction wrote:Solid points and I respect the hustle on that flag plant. I was wondering why you traded your boy Diontae so quick today. I like Breida at his price point and will for sure be targeting him in some redrafts. Dynasty I might grab him in the league I have Tevin too. It makes sense and hedges things a bit.
Yeah, I didn't necessarily want to move Diontae - but I wanted an RB as it is a big need for me and I considered what I paid for Diontae. I would have easily paid that for Breida.
ninotoreS wrote:Breida's struggles to remain healthy last year are logical considering his weight and BMI (he's built like a friggin slot-receiver)
While I certainly get what you are saying when it comes to BMI and health - I wouldn't go so far as to say he struggled to remain healthy last year. Beyond that, he had a great track record of health prior to the season but had that ankle injury last year.
ninotoreS wrote:If I could get him for an RB3 price, I'd consider it. But I doubt I can.
I feel like his price is around there, or lower to be completely honest. I just drafted him at the back of round 10 in an 18 team startup and traded Diontae Johnson for him, so he's certainly still cheap.
trc wrote:PFF stats are truly nice, but I recall years ago they had Tannehill as one of the highest ranking QBs.
Of course PFF stats are not the end-all, be-all; I use their grades to decide which players to go watch tape on and that is what prompted me to go watch Breida. You can see why his receiving grade was so high.

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby MEuRaH » Sat May 04, 2019 5:49 am

Huge 49er fan here. Two things about Breida that you didn't mention:

(1) His pass protection sucks. That's a huge knock against him since it makes the offense just slightly more predictable every play.
(2) He gets hurt all the time. ALL THE TIME. Soft tissue injuries every damn day. It's a running joke every week about how long into a game he'll get before he gets hurt. That's why we saw FOUR RBs past Breida on the depth chart who got significant carries during the year.

I like Breida's talent as a runner and pass catcher, but there's no way in hell he'll ever be the lead back. He's a flex with weekly upside at best. Coleman is 1A, McKinnon is 1B. Breida has the talent to fill in for either of these guys, an that's a role that everyone is going to be comfortable with.

Your assessment is spot on though.
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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Phaded » Sat May 04, 2019 6:03 am

Thanks for the input Mike, I had a feeling you would chime in at some point as I know you are a 49ers fan.

1) I agree, right now his pass protection does suck. Coleman & McKinnon are not fantastic pass blockers either, though. He also just turned 24 earlier this year as I'm sure you know; plenty of time to improve on this (even if it is a minor improvement or it takes time, any improvement helps). I agree it can become slightly predictable which is probably part of why he faced a stacked box around 25% of the time - but on the flipside, the offense overall should be a lot more respectable which will make things even easier for him. Plenty of poor pass blockers have good fantasy success, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb & Joe Mixon - to name a few.

2) I didn't hear much outside of the nagging ankle injury that bugged him for most of the year, so maybe I am overlooking that - however; I do know that prior to 2018 he did a great job remaining healthy.

Considering a lot of sites have him ranked around RB38 - and with guys like Ito Smith & Ronald Jones, give me Matt Breida every single time over those guys. I think he might surprise you with what he does compared to guys to Coleman & McKinnon (who also to be quite frank, are nowhere near the skillset of a lead back).

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat May 04, 2019 6:28 am

https://nflmocks.com/2017/09/07/pre-dra ... tt-breida/
On March 30th, Breida put out one of the best pro day performances of any back in the 2017 NFL Draft class.

He started off by running a 4.39 second 40-yard dash, speed that was undeniably translated to the field. He checked in at 5-foot-9, 195 pounds, and threw up 23 bench press reps of 225 pounds.

Breida’s vertical jump of 42 inches was other-worldly, and his broad jump of 11’2″ would have ranked him among the best at the 2017 scouting combine.

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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby ericanadian » Sat May 04, 2019 6:34 am

Steve Slaton without the fumbling issues?
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Re: Sorting out the 49ers backfield - and this might be your last chance to buy this guy cheap..

Postby ninotoreS » Sat May 04, 2019 6:42 am

I think he's Corey Grant with better instincts.
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