Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby ninotoreS » Mon May 06, 2019 5:59 am

themburns wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 3:50 am
I know Sammy Watkins was at some point a flat earther, which doesn't speak well for his ability to quickly learn a new playbook
laughed out loud
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby brooklynkid » Mon May 06, 2019 2:23 pm

So if your team with the chance of competing with a need in WR, Would you send 1.04 for Watkins?
14 Team PPR League 6pts all TDs 1.5 PPR TE
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon May 06, 2019 2:32 pm

brooklynkid wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 2:23 pm
So if your team with the chance of competing with a need in WR, Would you send 1.04 for Watkins?
I would hold the 1.04 personally, but I wouldn’t sell Watkins for less than the 1.06 probably
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby Hottoddies » Mon May 06, 2019 10:01 pm

If you're a Hill owner would you pay a 2020 1st for Sammy?

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby Ice » Tue May 07, 2019 7:48 am

hoos89 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:51 pm
M-Dub wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:51 pm
I’d probably sell for the 1.06 or better, but I doubt anyone is paying that in my particular market of 11. I haven’t had any offers or inquiries about him, nor have I actively shopped him. I’d definitely have taken the Guice offer mentioned above if I didn’t already own him too.
Yeah there are people in my league who are "interested", but I think that amounts to trying to get him for pre-Hill news prices. 1.06 might have done it in last year's draft, and would almost certainly do it in next year's draft, but I want more than Metcalf, Deebo, AJB, Hockenson or Fant for Watkins right now.
Wanting and getting can be as wide as the Grand Canyon..... Good Luck but doubt this happens given so much history. Maybe some young newbie will pay that price but highly doubt anyone would even trade Hardman for him once he is drafted.

Hardman is going top 6 in some drafts now.

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby hoos89 » Tue May 07, 2019 8:31 am

Ice wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 7:48 am
hoos89 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:51 pm
M-Dub wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:51 pm
I’d probably sell for the 1.06 or better, but I doubt anyone is paying that in my particular market of 11. I haven’t had any offers or inquiries about him, nor have I actively shopped him. I’d definitely have taken the Guice offer mentioned above if I didn’t already own him too.
Yeah there are people in my league who are "interested", but I think that amounts to trying to get him for pre-Hill news prices. 1.06 might have done it in last year's draft, and would almost certainly do it in next year's draft, but I want more than Metcalf, Deebo, AJB, Hockenson or Fant for Watkins right now.
Wanting and getting can be as wide as the Grand Canyon..... Good Luck but doubt this happens given so much history. Maybe some young newbie will pay that price but highly doubt anyone would even trade Hardman for him once he is drafted.

Hardman is going top 6 in some drafts now.
...yes, thank you for restating my point.

And Hardman may be going in the top 6 in some drafts, but he's got an ADP of #13. Holding Hardman over Watkins would be the epitome of rookie fever.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Haskins, Bortles
Michel, Howard, McKinnon, Love, Richard, Warren, Gaskin, Collins
Cooks, Kupp, Watkins, Kirk, MVS, Lee, Da. Moore, Dorsett, Coleman, Perriman, Patterson, Ateman
Njoku, Herndon, ASJ
IR(2):
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, Deebo
2020 Picks: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 5th

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Ryan, Stafford, Grier, Fitzpatrick
Gurley, Cohen, Miller, Ito, Barber, Brown, Pollard, Homer
Thomas, Woods, Watkins, Boyd, Anderson, M. Jones, Foster, Enunwa, Doctson, KeeSean, Perriman, Ferguson
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Gronk
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby Ice » Tue May 07, 2019 9:04 am

hoos89 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 8:31 am
Ice wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 7:48 am
hoos89 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 8:51 pm


Yeah there are people in my league who are "interested", but I think that amounts to trying to get him for pre-Hill news prices. 1.06 might have done it in last year's draft, and would almost certainly do it in next year's draft, but I want more than Metcalf, Deebo, AJB, Hockenson or Fant for Watkins right now.
Wanting and getting can be as wide as the Grand Canyon..... Good Luck but doubt this happens given so much history. Maybe some young newbie will pay that price but highly doubt anyone would even trade Hardman for him once he is drafted.

Hardman is going top 6 in some drafts now.
...yes, thank you for restating my point.

And Hardman may be going in the top 6 in some drafts, but he's got an ADP of #13. Holding Hardman over Watkins would be the epitome of rookie fever.
It is not really rookie fever but Watkins production over his 5 year career.

As a Rookie Watkins had 128 targets 65 receptions, His 2nd year was also promising with 96 targets and 60 receptions but he missed 3 games.

His last 3 years he has had a total of 177 targets and 107 receptions in 33 games. To put that is production in perspective Julio in 16 games last year had 170 targets and 113 receptions.

Further, when one looks at the scheme for KC, Tyreek gobbled up 137 targets and 87 receptions last season. Hardman is slotted into that position given the situation. KC doesn't target the more stationary X WR in their system nearly as much as the move WR.

I would much rather take my chances on Hardman on this team. I have always liked Sammy's talent but his dependability and position he plays in their system is not ideal.

Hardman is the upside play here going into the future and this is the real reason he is flying up draft boards. Obviously, he has to grow into the position but we already know Watkins past and it is disappointing on many levels so his value is high risk at this point.

ADP means nothing to me. I have no idea what the masses are doing with their research within a team structure and how a particular player will most likely be used. What ADP is telling us if anything is Hardman is flying up draft boards post NFL draft as the masses start to delve into the mindset of the KC brain trust with this selection.

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby M-Dub » Tue May 07, 2019 9:29 am

As a Sammy owner, I actually celebrated a little when the Chiefs drafted Hardman. If they had taken someone like Campbell, Metcalf or Isabella (all of whom were available), I’d have been a little concerned. My first rookie pick isn’t until 2.09, so I won on that front too, as Hardman is now almost certain to get drafted before then and push better talent down to me.
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby Ice » Tue May 07, 2019 9:43 am

M-Dub wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:29 am
As a Sammy owner, I actually celebrated a little when the Chiefs drafted Hardman. If they had taken someone like Campbell, Metcalf or Isabella (all of whom were available), I’d have been a little concerned. My first rookie pick isn’t until 2.09, so I won on that front too, as Hardman is now almost certain to get drafted before then and push better talent down to me.
Don't blame you for liking this for Watkins but every pick pushes talent down. I highly doubt you will draft a better talent than Hardman there.

Maybe a Deaonte Johnson type falls to you if your league is asleep on him.

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby joeya2001 » Tue May 07, 2019 9:55 am

so as a Watkins owner if you can scoop up hardman, are you?

I may be faced with that choice at #7 pick
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby JFever » Tue May 07, 2019 10:02 am

M-Dub wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:51 pm
I’d probably sell for the 1.06 or better, but I doubt anyone is paying that in my particular market of 11. I haven’t had any offers or inquiries about him, nor have I actively shopped him. I’d definitely have taken the Guice offer mentioned above if I didn’t already own him too.
yikes man. I think I'd have snap accepted that. I think Guice long term (1-2 years) is more valuable and productive. Sammy = flat earther. nuf said for me. :crazy: lol.
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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby Huh » Tue May 07, 2019 10:05 am

I love Sammy and he burned me with injuries. Sold him for amari when he signed with the rams and never looked back. Any day Sammy isn’t hurt is a sell day, because the next injury is coming.

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby hoos89 » Tue May 07, 2019 4:46 pm

Ice wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:04 am

It is not really rookie fever but Watkins production over his 5 year career.

As a Rookie Watkins had 128 targets 65 receptions, His 2nd year was also promising with 96 targets and 60 receptions but he missed 3 games.

His last 3 years he has had a total of 177 targets and 107 receptions in 33 games. To put that is production in perspective Julio in 16 games last year had 170 targets and 113 receptions.

Further, when one looks at the scheme for KC, Tyreek gobbled up 137 targets and 87 receptions last season. Hardman is slotted into that position given the situation. KC doesn't target the more stationary X WR in their system nearly as much as the move WR.

I would much rather take my chances on Hardman on this team. I have always liked Sammy's talent but his dependability and position he plays in their system is not ideal.

Hardman is the upside play here going into the future and this is the real reason he is flying up draft boards. Obviously, he has to grow into the position but we already know Watkins past and it is disappointing on many levels so his value is high risk at this point.

ADP means nothing to me. I have no idea what the masses are doing with their research within a team structure and how a particular player will most likely be used. What ADP is telling us if anything is Hardman is flying up draft boards post NFL draft as the masses start to delve into the mindset of the KC brain trust with this selection.
I think expecting a rookie as raw as Hardman to step into the Tyreek role and give substantial production, much less steal a significant chunk of targets from Sammy, is rookie fever.

The knock on Sammy's position in that system is overblown. He was a WR2 when healthy last year. Sammy averaged ~6.6 targets in games he finished last season, and with Hunt gone and Hill probably gone (not to mention that this is the first time he'll be on the same team as the previous season since 2016), I think it's fair to assume that number will rise. Obviously the big question mark of health remains, but we know that Sammy can play WR in the NFL when he is healthy, which we can't yet say about Hardman.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Haskins, Bortles
Michel, Howard, McKinnon, Love, Richard, Warren, Gaskin, Collins
Cooks, Kupp, Watkins, Kirk, MVS, Lee, Da. Moore, Dorsett, Coleman, Perriman, Patterson, Ateman
Njoku, Herndon, ASJ
IR(2):
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, Deebo
2020 Picks: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Stafford, Grier, Fitzpatrick
Gurley, Cohen, Miller, Ito, Barber, Brown, Pollard, Homer
Thomas, Woods, Watkins, Boyd, Anderson, M. Jones, Foster, Enunwa, Doctson, KeeSean, Perriman, Ferguson
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Gronk
2020 Picks: 1st x 4

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby pvillebiker » Tue May 07, 2019 4:48 pm

JFever wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 10:02 am
M-Dub wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:51 pm
I’d probably sell for the 1.06 or better, but I doubt anyone is paying that in my particular market of 11. I haven’t had any offers or inquiries about him, nor have I actively shopped him. I’d definitely have taken the Guice offer mentioned above if I didn’t already own him too.
yikes man. I think I'd have snap accepted that. I think Guice long term (1-2 years) is more valuable and productive. Sammy = flat earther. nuf said for me. :crazy: lol.
Yes, I bet most are in that camp to take Guice over Sammy now. Not me.

Sammy's (longer) injury risk is held against him, but Guice's is discounted. Guice should have at least as much doubt now with all that's going on with his injury. However, I definitely see a path for Guice to prove you correct and his dynasty value to skyrocket this off season. For instance if he proves he's over the injury and ready to overtake AP for starter volume.

Interestingly enough - in mizelle's latest May draft data, Guice is going #36 overall (RB16), while Sammy is going #43 overall (WR 21). Pretty close. Betting Sammy continues to climb into camp.

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Re: Sammy Watkins - Hold or Sell?

Postby hoos89 » Tue May 07, 2019 4:50 pm

joeya2001 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:55 am
so as a Watkins owner if you can scoop up hardman, are you?

I may be faced with that choice at #7 pick
Would you consider Hardman at #7 if you didn't have Watkins on your roster? If not, I wouldn't take him there.
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
Wentz, Haskins, Bortles
Michel, Howard, McKinnon, Love, Richard, Warren, Gaskin, Collins
Cooks, Kupp, Watkins, Kirk, MVS, Lee, Da. Moore, Dorsett, Coleman, Perriman, Patterson, Ateman
Njoku, Herndon, ASJ
IR(2):
Taxi(4): Jacobs, DJ Moore, Sutton, Deebo
2020 Picks: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 5th

Team 3: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
Ryan, Stafford, Grier, Fitzpatrick
Gurley, Cohen, Miller, Ito, Barber, Brown, Pollard, Homer
Thomas, Woods, Watkins, Boyd, Anderson, M. Jones, Foster, Enunwa, Doctson, KeeSean, Perriman, Ferguson
Hooper, Herndon, Witten, Gronk
2020 Picks: 1st x 4

Team 1: 2012-2016
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