Terry McLaurin

[themburns]

A lot of every single fantasy asset's trade value is made up of hype. The 2019 draft class had the opposite of hype. It was very popular to talk about how these players wouldn't be first rounders in any other class, but two weeks into the season and that looks very different. I think many people's values haven't caught up to that, and they still see 2020 as infinitely better. Kinda feels like it'd be a lot more to say that it "hype" rather than a confluence of situation and talent that is Terry McLaurin.

I don't know that he is more than a WR2 longterm in this league, but the path to production this year is open and if you think he's expensive now, it's going to get worse if he keeps up this target share for the rest of the season.

[Sriracha]

A lot of every single fantasy asset's trade value is made up of hype. The 2019 draft class had the opposite of hype. It was very popular to talk about how these players wouldn't be first rounders in any other class, but two weeks into the season and that looks very different. I think many people's values haven't caught up to that, and they still see 2020 as infinitely better. Kinda feels like it'd be a lot more to say that it "hype" rather than a confluence of situation and talent that is Terry McLaurin.

I don't know that he is more than a WR2 longterm in this league, but the path to production this year is open and if you think he's expensive now, it's going to get worse if he keeps up this target share for the rest of the season.

I disagree here. Marquise Brown has two years of elite college production to fall back on. Deebo Samuels also elite production in college, albeit on an injury shortened career. N'keal has dominator rating, and break out age going for him. AJB has collegiate production amongst solid competition for targets. DK has his freakish athleticism + good production among elite target competition.

McLaurin has little production amongst solid target competition... he's much more of an enigma than the other WRs in this draft class.

[themburns]

A lot of every single fantasy asset's trade value is made up of hype. The 2019 draft class had the opposite of hype. It was very popular to talk about how these players wouldn't be first rounders in any other class, but two weeks into the season and that looks very different. I think many people's values haven't caught up to that, and they still see 2020 as infinitely better. Kinda feels like it'd be a lot more to say that it "hype" rather than a confluence of situation and talent that is Terry McLaurin.

I don't know that he is more than a WR2 longterm in this league, but the path to production this year is open and if you think he's expensive now, it's going to get worse if he keeps up this target share for the rest of the season.

I disagree here. Marquise Brown has two years of elite college production to fall back on. Deebo Samuels also elite production in college, albeit on an injury shortened career. N'keal has dominator rating, and break out age going for him. AJB has collegiate production amongst solid competition for targets. DK has his freakish athleticism + good production among elite target competition.

McLaurin has little production amongst solid target competition... he's much more of an enigma than the other WRs in this draft class.

You're just listing a group of players all worth at least a 2020 1st as well with those rookie WRs. I was just saying that because of a lack of "hype" the 2019 class had been undervalued on the trade market. We can argue about why McLaurin didn't check the production boxes, but I think when a 23 y/o WR with that kind of limited college production goes day 2, the team either reached horribly or found a gem.

This is from an article last weekend:
"Drafted in the third round out of Ohio State, McLaurin has blown past expectations since arriving in Ashburn. Hailed for being the “No.1 special teams player” in the draft by coach Jay Gruden, McLaurin didn’t step on the field Sunday as a special teamer.

He’s just too valuable. .... “If we were smart, we would have taken him in the first round,” Gruden said."

I just think the drive to call things "hype" is a way to dismiss an argument without actually taking the time to make a counter-argument.

[FantasyFreak]

A lot of every single fantasy asset's trade value is made up of hype. The 2019 draft class had the opposite of hype. It was very popular to talk about how these players wouldn't be first rounders in any other class, but two weeks into the season and that looks very different. I think many people's values haven't caught up to that, and they still see 2020 as infinitely better. Kinda feels like it'd be a lot more to say that it "hype" rather than a confluence of situation and talent that is Terry McLaurin.

I don't know that he is more than a WR2 longterm in this league, but the path to production this year is open and if you think he's expensive now, it's going to get worse if he keeps up this target share for the rest of the season.

I disagree here. Marquise Brown has two years of elite college production to fall back on. Deebo Samuels also elite production in college, albeit on an injury shortened career. N'keal has dominator rating, and break out age going for him. AJB has collegiate production amongst solid competition for targets. DK has his freakish athleticism + good production among elite target competition.

McLaurin has little production amongst solid target competition... he's much more of an enigma than the other WRs in this draft class.

You're just listing a group of players all worth at least a 2020 1st as well with those rookie WRs. I was just saying that because of a lack of "hype" the 2019 class had been undervalued on the trade market. We can argue about why McLaurin didn't check the production boxes, but I think when a 23 y/o WR with that kind of limited college production goes day 2, the team either reached horribly or found a gem.

This is from an article last weekend:
"Drafted in the third round out of Ohio State, McLaurin has blown past expectations since arriving in Ashburn. Hailed for being the “No.1 special teams player” in the draft by coach Jay Gruden, McLaurin didn’t step on the field Sunday as a special teamer.

He’s just too valuable. .... “If we were smart, we would have taken him in the first round,” Gruden said."

I just think the drive to call things "hype" is a way to dismiss an argument without actually taking the time to make a counter-argument.

That's why he's not a GM. It would have been stupid to take him in the first. Deebo Samuel and N'Keal Harry are certainly not worth more than a 2020 first right now.

[themburns]

I disagree here. Marquise Brown has two years of elite college production to fall back on. Deebo Samuels also elite production in college, albeit on an injury shortened career. N'keal has dominator rating, and break out age going for him. AJB has collegiate production amongst solid competition for targets. DK has his freakish athleticism + good production among elite target competition.

McLaurin has little production amongst solid target competition... he's much more of an enigma than the other WRs in this draft class.

You're just listing a group of players all worth at least a 2020 1st as well with those rookie WRs. I was just saying that because of a lack of "hype" the 2019 class had been undervalued on the trade market. We can argue about why McLaurin didn't check the production boxes, but I think when a 23 y/o WR with that kind of limited college production goes day 2, the team either reached horribly or found a gem.

This is from an article last weekend:
"Drafted in the third round out of Ohio State, McLaurin has blown past expectations since arriving in Ashburn. Hailed for being the “No.1 special teams player” in the draft by coach Jay Gruden, McLaurin didn’t step on the field Sunday as a special teamer.

He’s just too valuable. .... “If we were smart, we would have taken him in the first round,” Gruden said."

I just think the drive to call things "hype" is a way to dismiss an argument without actually taking the time to make a counter-argument.

That's why he's not a GM. It would have been stupid to take him in the first. Deebo Samuel and N'Keal Harry are certainly not worth more than a 2020 first right now.

That is perhaps the least generous way anyone could have read that excerpt. The coach explicitly stated he's outplayed the role he was drafted for before the season started. By stating "I should have taken him in the first round" he's just saying this guy is overperforming expectations.

I wouldn't pay a 2020 1st for Harry, but this thread isn't about that. I do think that all of the WRs listed could fetch a 2020 1st on the trade market right now in various leagues, and some more.

[Sriracha]

A lot of every single fantasy asset's trade value is made up of hype. The 2019 draft class had the opposite of hype. It was very popular to talk about how these players wouldn't be first rounders in any other class, but two weeks into the season and that looks very different. I think many people's values haven't caught up to that, and they still see 2020 as infinitely better. Kinda feels like it'd be a lot more to say that it "hype" rather than a confluence of situation and talent that is Terry McLaurin.

I don't know that he is more than a WR2 longterm in this league, but the path to production this year is open and if you think he's expensive now, it's going to get worse if he keeps up this target share for the rest of the season.

I disagree here. Marquise Brown has two years of elite college production to fall back on. Deebo Samuels also elite production in college, albeit on an injury shortened career. N'keal has dominator rating, and break out age going for him. AJB has collegiate production amongst solid competition for targets. DK has his freakish athleticism + good production among elite target competition.

McLaurin has little production amongst solid target competition... he's much more of an enigma than the other WRs in this draft class.

You're just listing a group of players all worth at least a 2020 1st as well with those rookie WRs. I was just saying that because of a lack of "hype" the 2019 class had been undervalued on the trade market. We can argue about why McLaurin didn't check the production boxes, but I think when a 23 y/o WR with that kind of limited college production goes day 2, the team either reached horribly or found a gem.

This is from an article last weekend:
"Drafted in the third round out of Ohio State, McLaurin has blown past expectations since arriving in Ashburn. Hailed for being the “No.1 special teams player” in the draft by coach Jay Gruden, McLaurin didn’t step on the field Sunday as a special teamer.

He’s just too valuable. .... “If we were smart, we would have taken him in the first round,” Gruden said."

I just think the drive to call things "hype" is a way to dismiss an argument without actually taking the time to make a counter-argument.

No, I listed other receivers who have more clarity on their careers because they have collegiate production to fall back on instead of just training camp buzz and 2 games.


Has the Dante Pettis hype train taught us nothing? If you werent productive in college, I need more than 2 games before I declare you a “hit”.

[FantasyFreak]

You're just listing a group of players all worth at least a 2020 1st as well with those rookie WRs. I was just saying that because of a lack of "hype" the 2019 class had been undervalued on the trade market. We can argue about why McLaurin didn't check the production boxes, but I think when a 23 y/o WR with that kind of limited college production goes day 2, the team either reached horribly or found a gem.

This is from an article last weekend:
"Drafted in the third round out of Ohio State, McLaurin has blown past expectations since arriving in Ashburn. Hailed for being the “No.1 special teams player” in the draft by coach Jay Gruden, McLaurin didn’t step on the field Sunday as a special teamer.

He’s just too valuable. .... “If we were smart, we would have taken him in the first round,” Gruden said."

I just think the drive to call things "hype" is a way to dismiss an argument without actually taking the time to make a counter-argument.

That's why he's not a GM. It would have been stupid to take him in the first. Deebo Samuel and N'Keal Harry are certainly not worth more than a 2020 first right now.

That is perhaps the least generous way anyone could have read that excerpt. The coach explicitly stated he's outplayed the role he was drafted for before the season started. By stating "I should have taken him in the first round" he's just saying this guy is overperforming expectations.

I wouldn't pay a 2020 1st for Harry, but this thread isn't about that. I do think that all of the WRs listed could fetch a 2020 1st on the trade market right now in various leagues, and some more.

Not really. I doubt Jay Gruden was pounding the table to take McLaurin over Haskins. If he's being serious, it's idiocy, and if it's hyperbole, it still sort of puts the GM in a bad light. Could have just said he's outperforming expectations. McLaurin could be legit, but to boost his value beyond a 2020 first is too much for me, this early. It's 2 games. I'm not paying a first plus just yet. They could easily draft Jeudy next year. I'm sure they will want to surround Haskins with talent at the position. I don't think it's a high probability that he's the teams top WR for years to come. It may happen, but I'm not betting on it. He certainly should be a productive part of the offense, but I am sceptical the Redskins WR1 is his long term outcome.

[themburns]

That's why he's not a GM. It would have been stupid to take him in the first. Deebo Samuel and N'Keal Harry are certainly not worth more than a 2020 first right now.

That is perhaps the least generous way anyone could have read that excerpt. The coach explicitly stated he's outplayed the role he was drafted for before the season started. By stating "I should have taken him in the first round" he's just saying this guy is overperforming expectations.

I wouldn't pay a 2020 1st for Harry, but this thread isn't about that. I do think that all of the WRs listed could fetch a 2020 1st on the trade market right now in various leagues, and some more.

Not really. I doubt Jay Gruden was pounding the table to take McLaurin over Haskins. If he's being serious, it's idiocy, and if it's hyperbole, it still sort of puts the GM in a bad light. Could have just said he's outperforming expectations. McLaurin could be legit, but to boost his value beyond a 2020 first is too much for me, this early. It's 2 games. I'm not paying a first plus just yet. They could easily draft Jeudy next year. I'm sure they will want to surround Haskins with talent at the position. I don't think it's a high probability that he's the teams top WR for years to come. It may happen, but I'm not betting on it. He certainly should be a productive part of the offense, but I am sceptical the Redskins WR1 is his long term outcome.

Yes, really. There's no arguing in good faith here, so I'll just say that if you wouldn't pay a 1st for McLaurin I understand that, but you also can't expect any owner to move him for a 2nd rounder.

[Lord_Varys]

Player has WR1 production as a rookie in the NFL.

"Yeah, but he wasn't productive in college."

LMAO

[Patsfan86]

Player has WR1 production as a rookie in the NFL.

"Yeah, but he wasn't productive in college."

LMAO

College production matters but I 100 percent agree with this. And its a very simple way of putting it. While its very rare there are some players who are better at the NFL game than they were at the college game for whatever reason. Perhaps Mclaurin is that, and i dont own him at all. Not saying throw his college production out the window but the two NFL games def matter more.

[brward]

FWIW....There was an article on The Athletic about McLaurin. In it, Haskins said multiple teams asked him who he would take out of his three receivers. He told every team he would want Terry to come with him if given the opportunity. He described his chemistry with McLaurin as "something I've never really had before with anyone else"

[ArrylT]

I think that depends on what you call production. If what is being referred to as production is a lack of a breakout season / college dominator rating then sure in that respect McLaurin has "no production".

But it is not like McLaurin was unproductive in the role he was given last year. In some aspect one could call Terry McLaurin the Josh Jacobs of the 2019 WRs. There was a lot of debate about Jacobs ability to produce in the NFL due to a lack of volume. We can see how that is playing out so far ... Looking back, McLaurin flashed in his senior year, then some more in the Senior Bowl, and then some more during the off-season.

In other words there were hints that this could happen - but the odds for many owners was not intriguing enough to pay the draft price necessary. And now that some are willing, those that own McLaurin obviously see no need to sell for a price similar to what they paid.

And that is perfectly fine.

The good news for McLaurin owners, is that it is not likely this situation changes before 2020. And since Haskins & McLaurin already have a connection from college, if/when the Redskins go from Keenum to Haskins, that won't likely change his targets much. So at the very least he should be usable in your lineups for the rest of the year.

Sometimes when you play it safe you win, and sometimes you lose. Right now we're likely looking at that kind of crossroads decision in regards to McLaurin - do you buy & ride McLaurin (like Damien Williams owners*) and hope it lasts beyond 2019 - or do you wait til next year and hope the guy you draft with your 1st can be as good (or better). The odds suggest it is safer to wait, but then again the odds are based on what McLaurin was, not what he is right now. Sometimes the right decision is to actually take that risk and reap the rewards if it pans out. Like they say, 100% of doors you do not open remain closed.

What I think a savvy contending owner might do is offer a 2020 2nd and pair that with a guy they're falling out of love with - be it a Dante Pettis / Anthony Miller / Rashaad Penny - and see if that will entice any McLaurin owners looking for a profit.

It really depends on what you're doing with your team.

* - The comparison is that both are players who a section of the community feels that they are nothing special and are propped up by a situation that they cannot foresee lasting. Well as long as it lasts all of 2019 their owners will likely be happy to be rewarded with the high RB2 (Dam Williams), mid WR2 (McLaurin) production.

[Lord_Varys]

Breakout age, dominator rating, and all of that stuff is helpful for correlation. But it's not causation.

McLaurin's QB was a RB for 3 years. He played in a loaded WR room on a team that ran the ball a ton. He was given a role, and he crushed it. We weren't sure if he could handle a broader role or not, but you could watch him work and guess that he had a decent shot at it. And we're seeing it now.

But people still want to ignore their lying eyes for some reason. Oh well.

[djeternal2]

It's 2 games. We see this kind of thing where guys pop for a couple or three games and then disappear. Anyone remember Keelan Cole from last year? After 2 weeks he had 10 for 170 and 1 TD. His end of year stats 38 catches 491 yds 1 TDs. I don't think anyone would argue that last year's Jags WR depth chart is loaded with superstars. Was anyone paying a first+ for Cole last year? And if so you happy with that now?

[FantasyFreak]

That is perhaps the least generous way anyone could have read that excerpt. The coach explicitly stated he's outplayed the role he was drafted for before the season started. By stating "I should have taken him in the first round" he's just saying this guy is overperforming expectations.

I wouldn't pay a 2020 1st for Harry, but this thread isn't about that. I do think that all of the WRs listed could fetch a 2020 1st on the trade market right now in various leagues, and some more.

Not really. I doubt Jay Gruden was pounding the table to take McLaurin over Haskins. If he's being serious, it's idiocy, and if it's hyperbole, it still sort of puts the GM in a bad light. Could have just said he's outperforming expectations. McLaurin could be legit, but to boost his value beyond a 2020 first is too much for me, this early. It's 2 games. I'm not paying a first plus just yet. They could easily draft Jeudy next year. I'm sure they will want to surround Haskins with talent at the position. I don't think it's a high probability that he's the teams top WR for years to come. It may happen, but I'm not betting on it. He certainly should be a productive part of the offense, but I am sceptical the Redskins WR1 is his long term outcome.

Yes, really. There's no arguing in good faith here, so I'll just say that if you wouldn't pay a 1st for McLaurin I understand that, but you also can't expect any owner to move him for a 2nd rounder.

I clearly stated more than a first. I would not trade him for a 2nd if I had him, nor do I expect people to, but I'd probably take a 2020 first for him. I don't think he should be valued at more than a first through 2 games, that's all.