Dynasty League Football Forum

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:28 pm

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads

Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.

I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:55 pm

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:28 pm

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads

Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.

I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.

I'd say 70% marketshare for Taylor in year 1 is pretty lofty, as is 65% for CEH.

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 4:47 pm Really eh? I thought 65% was reasonable for CEH considering the competition he is facing in KC. I do think 70% for Taylor is best case scenario.

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 5:44 pm

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 4:47 pm Really eh? I thought 65% was reasonable for CEH considering the competition he is facing in KC. I do think 70% for Taylor is best case scenario.

I realize a lot of people write off Damien Williams; but so far as fit, Damien Williams is every bit as valuable to KC's offense as Marlon Mack is to IND. When he's healthy he's produced at an elite level for KC, and has completely taken over the playoffs two years in a row.

I expect a 50/50 split to start the season for both of these guys; and for Taylor to eventually seize a 70% opportunity share sometime around midseason. CEH might have to wait until Williams leaves in 2021 before he completely takes off in that offense; but we'll see what happens.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm I'm always surprised to see people hold Damien Williams in high regard. Can we look at this from a fantasy perspective?

He's been on the Chiefs for 2 years. In that time, you'd want someone you could start on your fantasy team to help you get to the playoffs. Those are the weeks 1-12.

Take a guess as to how many times he reached over 100 yards rushing in those weeks.
Now take a guess as to how many times he rushed for 30 or fewer yards in those weeks.

Done guessing? This will be fun, come play along now. Weeks 1-12 for 2 years = 24 possible games. Last chance to guess.

Over 100 yards: 1 time.
30 and under: 18 times.
3 total rushing touchdowns.
He only played 20 games.
(link)

Would you feel comfortable starting a player like this on your fantasy team if you made the playoffs? Or at all? Just FYI, he didn't do well in weeks 13 and 14 either. He only played 2 games. One for 38 yards, and another for 14 yards. 2 games out of 4 total possible games. This means he wasn't reliable in the first 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs either. (link)

So when were people starting this scrub? I can already hear the detractors btw. "But Mike. That's not fair. You have to factor in his receiving yards and touchdowns."

Oh ok then. Let's do that aaaaaand....... Not much changed.: LINK

I don't get it. 6 years in the NFL and DWilly has never eclipsed the 500 rushing mark. He benefited from being on a team with an elite offense, but still couldn't produce.

CEH is going to dominate that position. DWill is going to be forgotten after this season.

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm I'm always surprised to see people hold Damien Williams in high regard. Can we look at this from a fantasy perspective?

He's been on the Chiefs for 2 years. In that time, you'd want someone you could start on your fantasy team to help you get to the playoffs. Those are the weeks 1-12.

Take a guess as to how many times he reached over 100 yards rushing in those weeks.
Now take a guess as to how many times he rushed for 30 or fewer yards in those weeks.

Done guessing? This will be fun, come play along now. Weeks 1-12 for 2 years = 24 possible games. Last chance to guess.

Over 100 yards: 1 time.
30 and under: 18 times.
3 total rushing touchdowns.
He only played 20 games.
(link)

Would you feel comfortable starting a player like this on your fantasy team if you made the playoffs? Or at all? Just FYI, he didn't do well in weeks 13 and 14 either. He only played 2 games. One for 38 yards, and another for 14 yards. 2 games out of 4 total possible games. This means he wasn't reliable in the first 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs either. (link)

So when were people starting this scrub? I can already hear the detractors btw. "But Mike. That's not fair. You have to factor in his receiving yards and touchdowns."

Oh ok then. Let's do that aaaaaand....... Not much changed.: LINK

I don't get it. 6 years in the NFL and DWilly has never eclipsed the 500 rushing mark. He benefited from being on a team with an elite offense, but still couldn't produce.

CEH is going to dominate that position. DWill is going to be forgotten after this season.

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 6:21 pmAs a rookie, do you think CEH’s pass protection issues could suppress his snap count—especially with shortened camps and such being a possibility?

IZigUZag wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 6:33 pm William's has struggled with health his entire career, but in the 5 games he's gone over a 70% snap share since he joined the Chiefs he's averaged 138 total yards, and 1.2 TDs per game.