More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

[Shankopotamus]

Just read an article talking about how Doug Marrone wants to use Leviska Shenault and I’m seriously intrigued. They want to use him at RB, wildcat QB, TE, and WR. This is what I advised he work out as at the combine (or at least WR, TE, RB) and I think this is one scenario in which he could be a top fantasy asset for a stretch if he’s utilized like this. Certainly an argument to be made he should be a 1st round pick with this game plan in mind

The big question is not how he will be used, but how often. Gadget type plays work because they are unexpected. They are unexpected because they don't happen often. Can you trust that he'll see enough touches to put him into your starting lineup?

Yeah, the last thing you want in dynasty is the Taysom Hill of a bad offense.

[Sriracha]

Jay Gruden came across as a good offensive mind, to me. Not sure where the narrative that hes a bad coach is coming from? He was continually held back by an inept franchise that doesnt understand how to keep their players healthy, or prevent infections post injury (although, perhaps thats a general problem in D.C.’s hospitals?)

[skinfanjon]

Jay Gruden came across as a good offensive mind, to me. Not sure where the narrative that hes a bad coach is coming from? He was continually held back by an inept franchise that doesnt understand how to keep their players healthy, or prevent infections post injury (although, perhaps thats a general problem in D.C.’s hospitals?)

His strength is developing QBs and the pass game that he's designed. He can scheme open receivers very well. The work he did with Dalton and Cousins was excellent and they owe their careers to him.

He had glaring weaknesses as a HC- effective leadership, in game adjustments, getting the team ready to play from the opening whistle, clock management- a lot of really important stuff, but he's actually a very good coordinator. That is, when running his system. If you ask him to get outside his comfort zone, he's going to fall on his face because he's not imaginative. Marrone can force him to try, but he's going to struggle figuring out what to do with a guy like Shenault.

[Servo]

Dependent on team need and who's available (2QB/SF thinking), I would much rather have someone take Jordan Love in the 2nd, while I take Hurts in the 3rd. I feel like we'll be laughing at Lafleur sooner rather than later.

I'm sitting in one league at the 1.07, and if JT, CEH, Dobbins, Burrow, Tua are all gone....I'm not so sure I'm taking Swift/Lamb/Jeudy over Herbert.

- Swift because DET would barely feed Kerryon while he was healthy and Patricia lol
- Jeudy because I already have Sutton, Fant, Lindsay (lol)
- Lamb, ugh, I could be tempted but after drafting Nkeal over AJB last year, I think I'd rather draft a player that "shouldn't" lose a ton of value with a bad YR1.

[Cameron Giles]

Just read an article talking about how Doug Marrone wants to use Leviska Shenault and I’m seriously intrigued. They want to use him at RB, wildcat QB, TE, and WR. This is what I advised he work out as at the combine (or at least WR, TE, RB) and I think this is one scenario in which he could be a top fantasy asset for a stretch if he’s utilized like this. Certainly an argument to be made he should be a 1st round pick with this game plan in mind

The big question is not how he will be used, but how often. Gadget type plays work because they are unexpected. They are unexpected because they don't happen often. Can you trust that he'll see enough touches to put him into your starting lineup?

You shouldn't enter the season with any desire or hope to put Shenault in your starting lineup, unless you're playing DFS.

This is the right long-term play though and it's basically what the Chiefs did with Tyreek Hill. The key here is how Shenault develops as an actual WR. Hill had one of the more significant Year 1 to 2 improvements in recent memory. I doubt Shenault does that, but he has to at some point so the team isn't relying on moving him around the formation to get the ball in his hands.

Jacksonville is a very interesting team. They currently hold the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl and everyone expects them to be taking this season off to get Trevor Lawrence.

If you add Lawrence to this team, the outlook of players suddenly changes, and Shenault as a high 2020 pick for them and DJ Chark, could be a beneficiary.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Dependent on team need and who's available (2QB/SF thinking), I would much rather have someone take Jordan Love in the 2nd, while I take Hurts in the 3rd. I feel like we'll be laughing at Lafleur sooner rather than later.

I'm sitting in one league at the 1.07, and if JT, CEH, Dobbins, Burrow, Tua are all gone....I'm not so sure I'm taking Swift/Lamb/Jeudy over Herbert.

- Swift because DET would barely feed Kerryon while he was healthy and Patricia lol
- Jeudy because I already have Sutton, Fant, Lindsay (lol)
- Lamb, ugh, I could be tempted but after drafting Nkeal over AJB last year, I think I'd rather draft a player that "shouldn't" lose a ton of value with a bad YR1.

What if Kerryon becomes a role player, and Patricia is gone after 2020 like so many predict?

Or Jeudy becomes the ppr monster like sanders was before he was traded?

Or Dallas moves on from Cooper and Lamb becomes the WR1 in that offense that created guys like Adams?

And a year ago the consensus would have been Harry would be least likely to see a year 1 decline in value vs AJ Brown.

[ArrylT]

Going to be interesting to see how the hype cools and increases for 2020 Rookies over the off-season considering there will be little to no OTAs and or training camps ...

[Sriracha]

Going to be interesting to see how the hype cools and increases for 2020 Rookies over the off-season considering there will be little to no OTAs and or training camps ...

A big buying opportunity is likely to open up for these guys after the 2020 season (especially for the rawer WR prospects: Mims)

[FantasyFreak]

Going to be interesting to see how the hype cools and increases for 2020 Rookies over the off-season considering there will be little to no OTAs and or training camps ...

A big buying opportunity is likely to open up for these guys after the 2020 season (especially for the rawer WR prospects: Mims)

I think Mims will get peppered with targets compared to most rookies, so I am not sure he will be a buy low. That depth chart is wide open. I generally agree, though. The way I see guys like Isabella etc. sold for peanuts, I think a year from now is a good time to throw out offers for guys who are hot commodities right now that don't fire right away. This class will inevitably cool a bit, it's a given.

[smbkrypt24]

Going to be interesting to see how the hype cools and increases for 2020 Rookies over the off-season considering there will be little to no OTAs and or training camps ...

A big buying opportunity is likely to open up for these guys after the 2020 season (especially for the rawer WR prospects: Mims)

I think Mims will get peppered with targets compared to most rookies, so I am not sure he will be a buy low. That depth chart is wide open. I generally agree, though. The way I see guys like Isabella etc. sold for peanuts, I think a year from now is a good time to throw out offers for guys who are hot commodities right now that don't fire right away. This class will inevitably cool a bit, it's a given.

Sophomore receivers are always a good time to buy even if they don't pan out because most times they don't show much or at all and then people are infatuated with this years new WRs.

[Shankopotamus]

Dependent on team need and who's available (2QB/SF thinking), I would much rather have someone take Jordan Love in the 2nd, while I take Hurts in the 3rd. I feel like we'll be laughing at Lafleur sooner rather than later.

I'm sitting in one league at the 1.07, and if JT, CEH, Dobbins, Burrow, Tua are all gone....I'm not so sure I'm taking Swift/Lamb/Jeudy over Herbert.

- Swift because DET would barely feed Kerryon while he was healthy and Patricia lol
- Jeudy because I already have Sutton, Fant, Lindsay (lol)
- Lamb, ugh, I could be tempted but after drafting Nkeal over AJB last year, I think I'd rather draft a player that "shouldn't" lose a ton of value with a bad YR1.

What if Kerryon becomes a role player, and Patricia is gone after 2020 like so many predict?

Or Jeudy becomes the ppr monster like sanders was before he was traded?

Or Dallas moves on from Cooper and Lamb becomes the WR1 in that offense that created guys like Adams?

And a year ago the consensus would have been Harry would be least likely to see a year 1 decline in value vs AJ Brown.

i always laugh at how we see things as a community before the happen versus how things really shake out. Every year i have to remind myself to take talent over situation, and I'll probably still take Akers over Swift in my rookie draft like i passed on AJB last year.

[Mike11]

Dependent on team need and who's available (2QB/SF thinking), I would much rather have someone take Jordan Love in the 2nd, while I take Hurts in the 3rd. I feel like we'll be laughing at Lafleur sooner rather than later.

I'm sitting in one league at the 1.07, and if JT, CEH, Dobbins, Burrow, Tua are all gone....I'm not so sure I'm taking Swift/Lamb/Jeudy over Herbert.

- Swift because DET would barely feed Kerryon while he was healthy and Patricia lol
- Jeudy because I already have Sutton, Fant, Lindsay (lol)
- Lamb, ugh, I could be tempted but after drafting Nkeal over AJB last year, I think I'd rather draft a player that "shouldn't" lose a ton of value with a bad YR1.

What if Kerryon becomes a role player, and Patricia is gone after 2020 like so many predict?

Or Jeudy becomes the ppr monster like sanders was before he was traded?

Or Dallas moves on from Cooper and Lamb becomes the WR1 in that offense that created guys like Adams?

And a year ago the consensus would have been Harry would be least likely to see a year 1 decline in value vs AJ Brown.

i always laugh at how we see things as a community before the happen versus how things really shake out. Every year i have to remind myself to take talent over situation, and I'll probably still take Akers over Swift in my rookie draft like i passed on AJB last year.

I really don't get having Akers over Swift. For everyone hating Swifts landing spot how is Akers better? That team has a worse line, there is still competition with Malcolm Brown and Henderson, making it likely a combo of the 3 get used and Swift is a better pure receiver increasing his chances of being in on 3rd down. Stafford is the better QB, over Goff, with the better line; per PFF the Lions had the 11th ranked overall line last year (pretty sure the Rams were 31? and didn't get much help).

I think everyone is sleeping on Swift way too much right now. Even if he gets a 60/40 split he is going to get the receiving work (remember when Matthew Stafford made Theo Riddick relevant?) and be put in a position to succeed in order to defend a pick Matt Patricia was told he shouldn't have made by many.

Call it planting my flag (I know there's a thread) but I'm saying right now Swift is going to be a big time value, he's a better talent and Akers screams Christine Michael 2.0 (Great athlete, can you play RB?). If you get the pre-draft 1.01/1.02 at 1.04 - 1.08 you should be jumping for joy.

[Sriracha]

I really don't get having Akers over Swift. For everyone hating Swifts landing spot how is Akers better? That team has a worse line, there is still competition with Malcolm Brown and Henderson, making it likely a combo of the 3 get used and Swift is a better pure receiver increasing his chances of being in on 3rd down. Stafford is the better QB, over Goff, with the better line; per PFF the Lions had the 11th ranked overall line last year (pretty sure the Rams were 31? and didn't get much help).

I think everyone is sleeping on Swift way too much right now. Even if he gets a 60/40 split he is going to get the receiving work (remember when Matthew Stafford made Theo Riddick relevant?) and be put in a position to succeed in order to defend a pick Matt Patricia was told he shouldn't have made by many.

Call it planting my flag (I know there's a thread) but I'm saying right now Swift is going to be a big time value, he's a better talent and Akers screams Christine Michael 2.0 (Great athlete, can you play RB?). If you get the pre-draft 1.01/1.02 at 1.04 - 1.08 you should be jumping for joy.

I do not have Akers over Swift, but I can see the appeal.

Malcolm Brown and Henderson are about as much competition as Ty Johnson is to Swift. The argument is Kerryon will actually be a threat to Swift's touches (we'll see what happens there). I do think there's a strong argument to be made that Kerryon is talented, but injury prone -- and those concerns are lessened with a split workload.

Anyone who's high on Akers is chasing the "X-factor" he displays on film, his pedigree from highschool, and banking on his output being significantly depressed by horrid O-line play in college.

Opportunity is often lumped in with situation, but it might be better to say that while his situation isn't amazing his opportunity is.

[Cameron Giles]

I really don't get having Akers over Swift. For everyone hating Swifts landing spot how is Akers better? That team has a worse line, there is still competition with Malcolm Brown and Henderson, making it likely a combo of the 3 get used and Swift is a better pure receiver increasing his chances of being in on 3rd down. Stafford is the better QB, over Goff, with the better line; per PFF the Lions had the 11th ranked overall line last year (pretty sure the Rams were 31? and didn't get much help).

I think everyone is sleeping on Swift way too much right now. Even if he gets a 60/40 split he is going to get the receiving work (remember when Matthew Stafford made Theo Riddick relevant?) and be put in a position to succeed in order to defend a pick Matt Patricia was told he shouldn't have made by many.

Call it planting my flag (I know there's a thread) but I'm saying right now Swift is going to be a big time value, he's a better talent and Akers screams Christine Michael 2.0 (Great athlete, can you play RB?). If you get the pre-draft 1.01/1.02 at 1.04 - 1.08 you should be jumping for joy.

I do not have Akers over Swift, but I can see the appeal.

Malcolm Brown and Henderson are about as much competition as Ty Johnson is to Swift. The argument is Kerryon will actually be a threat to Swift's touches (we'll see what happens there). I do think there's a strong argument to be made that Kerryon is talented, but injury prone -- and those concerns are lessened with a split workload.

Anyone who's high on Akers is chasing the "X-factor" he displays on film, his pedigree from highschool, and banking on his output being significantly depressed by horrid O-line play in college.

Opportunity is often lumped in with situation, but it might be better to say that while his situation isn't amazing his opportunity is.

That sounds vague.

What's the X-Factor? Swift and Akers actually measured similarly at the combine, but on tape, Swift just looks more explosive, has better cutting ability and shows better receiving skills. I don't think there's any upside argument to having Akers over Swift.

I'll give Akers the edge in situation, because Sean McVay is one of the elite offensive minds in the league, but I think people forget how good Detroit's offense looked last year before Stafford went down.

[nathanq42]

After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads