More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:48 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:18 pm
Percentage of targets by route over the last two seasons:

Image

Thought this was pretty interesting.

Then percentage of receiving yards by route over the last two seasons

Image

Confirming some limited route trees and some players who are actually very diverse with their use.

Makes me want to stay away from Aiyuk. A very, very high dependency on screen routes.

But, Ruggs....very surprising that he and Jeudy were just as diverse in their route tree.
was that supposed to be 2 separate charts?

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:48 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:18 pm
Percentage of targets by route over the last two seasons:

Image

Thought this was pretty interesting.

Then percentage of receiving yards by route over the last two seasons

Image

Confirming some limited route trees and some players who are actually very diverse with their use.

Makes me want to stay away from Aiyuk. A very, very high dependency on screen routes.

But, Ruggs....very surprising that he and Jeudy were just as diverse in their route tree.
was that supposed to be 2 separate charts?
Oops, fixed.

Percentage of targets by route the last two years:
Image

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:59 pm

Not surprised that Shenault's 2 top routes are screens and hitches. Mims two top routes look based off his speed. The go route, and the hitch based off the go routes to beat guys playing for his speed on the go.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm

Thanks for posting Giles! That's huge info.

Do you happen to have charts from years past? I'd try and look for breakout trends or anything that would suggest a player being successful at the next level
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:48 pm

DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Thanks for posting Giles! That's huge info.

Do you happen to have charts from years past? I'd try and look for breakout trends or anything that would suggest a player being successful at the next level
PFF has them, but I'm not sure how far they go back.

I think the big takeaway is to have some concern over players winning or being used on a few routes, though it's understandable that teams peg them into that. Usually route diversity is a very encouraging trait heading into the next level.

Really big for someone like Ruggs who took a lot of snaps as an outside receiver and ran a variety of routes. My growing opinion is that he's being underrated here. Separation numbers would be the missing piece to all of this.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm

For people who study wr better than me, does any of this data impress or cause concern for you on any particular player. I don't have the required knowledge to digest this info.

Edit: Be warned, if you tell me something negative about Jalen Reagor I will promptly ignore it and assume you are a hater or trying to drive his draft capital down.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm
For people who study wr better than me, does any of this data impress or cause concern for you on any particular player. I don't have the required knowledge to digest this info.

Edit: Be warned, if you tell me something negative about Jalen Reagor I will promptly ignore it and assume you are a hater or trying to drive his draft capital down.
Think about it like this. If you are a WR who wins with a limited route tree in college, then there's going to be more pressure for those limited routes to translate seamlessly to the pros. It's not to say someone like Higgins will bust, but without the natural speed or the releases that equalize game speed to get open downfield, can he win consistently by just being taller and having a big catch radius? 75% of his production came on gos, posts, and outs.

For comparison, the percentage of receiving yards by route for some of the best receivers from last season:
Image

The route diversity is clear. Evans is probably the least diverse of the pack, but he's so freakishly gifted and skilled at those, that it explains why.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:26 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm
AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm
For people who study wr better than me, does any of this data impress or cause concern for you on any particular player. I don't have the required knowledge to digest this info.

Edit: Be warned, if you tell me something negative about Jalen Reagor I will promptly ignore it and assume you are a hater or trying to drive his draft capital down.
Think about it like this. If you are a WR who wins with a limited route tree in college, then there's going to be more pressure for those limited routes to translate seamlessly to the pros. It's not to say someone like Higgins will bust, but without the natural speed or the releases that equalize game speed to get open downfield, can he win consistently by just being taller and having a big catch radius? 75% of his production came on gos, posts, and outs.

For comparison, the percentage of receiving yards by route for some of the best receivers from last season:
Image

The route diversity is clear. Evans is probably the least diverse of the pack, but he's so freakishly gifted and skilled at those, that it explains why.
My first thought was wow Evans isn't very diverse, but like you said he's just a freak.

Also interesting that Hopkins and Thomas have very similar strengths in this chart.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Hottoddies » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:30 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm
AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm
For people who study wr better than me, does any of this data impress or cause concern for you on any particular player. I don't have the required knowledge to digest this info.

Edit: Be warned, if you tell me something negative about Jalen Reagor I will promptly ignore it and assume you are a hater or trying to drive his draft capital down.
Think about it like this. If you are a WR who wins with a limited route tree in college, then there's going to be more pressure for those limited routes to translate seamlessly to the pros. It's not to say someone like Higgins will bust, but without the natural speed or the releases that equalize game speed to get open downfield, can he win consistently by just being taller and having a big catch radius? 75% of his production came on gos, posts, and outs.

For comparison, the percentage of receiving yards by route for some of the best receivers from last season:
Image

The route diversity is clear. Evans is probably the least diverse of the pack, but he's so freakishly gifted and skilled at those, that it explains why.
Okay, so this shows the break down of the different routes that the WRs ran in college. To me this shows the different offensive schemes that these teams ran, the plays that their offensive coordinators called, and what roles that these WRs were asked to play in those schemes. I'm not sure if it necessarily says anything about a WRs ability to run a particular route or not.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:01 am

Hottoddies wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:30 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm
AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 pm
For people who study wr better than me, does any of this data impress or cause concern for you on any particular player. I don't have the required knowledge to digest this info.

Edit: Be warned, if you tell me something negative about Jalen Reagor I will promptly ignore it and assume you are a hater or trying to drive his draft capital down.
Think about it like this. If you are a WR who wins with a limited route tree in college, then there's going to be more pressure for those limited routes to translate seamlessly to the pros. It's not to say someone like Higgins will bust, but without the natural speed or the releases that equalize game speed to get open downfield, can he win consistently by just being taller and having a big catch radius? 75% of his production came on gos, posts, and outs.

For comparison, the percentage of receiving yards by route for some of the best receivers from last season:
Image

The route diversity is clear. Evans is probably the least diverse of the pack, but he's so freakishly gifted and skilled at those, that it explains why.
Okay, so this shows the break down of the different routes that the WRs ran in college. To me this shows the different offensive schemes that these teams ran, the plays that their offensive coordinators called, and what roles that these WRs were asked to play in those schemes. I'm not sure if it necessarily says anything about a WRs ability to run a particular route or not.
Correct. Schemes can limit what a player needs to do in college, but it's still a big plus to see a player coming into the league with multiple years of experience running a diverse route tree. Those players could be ahead of the curve long-term.

Ultimately, it's always good to see how players are winning so you can weigh if that will continue at the next level

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:27 am

Cameron this is awesome stuff man. Thank you. Is this your work?
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:31 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:27 am
Cameron this is awesome stuff man. Thank you. Is this your work?
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:05 am

I had seen this the other day. For the guy that asked, Ruggs is the most noticeable and biggest takeaway from this data. He’s massively undersold as a guy who’s just fast and could end up like John Ross, but in reality he’s really fluid in his game, and his route running is going to translate great to the next level. We already know he’s fast, and gets separation, but it’s yet to be seen really if he translates more to tyreek or someone else with just linear speed I.e Ted Ginn or Ross.

I’ve had him top 3 and essentially in a 3 way tie for quite a while with Jeudy and lamb, but I think he’s that guy you can get at the back end of R1 that’s going to be a steal.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:22 am

Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:05 am
I had seen this the other day. For the guy that asked, Ruggs is the most noticeable and biggest takeaway from this data. He’s massively undersold as a guy who’s just fast and could end up like John Ross, but in reality he’s really fluid in his game, and his route running is going to translate great to the next level. We already know he’s fast, and gets separation, but it’s yet to be seen really if he translates more to tyreek or someone else with just linear speed I.e Ted Ginn or Ross.

I’ve had him top 3 and essentially in a 3 way tie for quite a while with Jeudy and lamb, but I think he’s that guy you can get at the back end of R1 that’s going to be a steal.
Yep. Ruggs looks a lot better than his initial profile suggests. I'd argue his floor is higher than popular opinion. His routes have improved each year playing mostly as an outside receiver and it's showed up on tape. I think there's a lot of evidence that if he wasn't sharing the field with 2 stud WRs, then he really could've taken off. I've also noticed a lot of trusted analysts hyping him up lately as well from who they've spoken to

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:25 am

Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:05 am
I had seen this the other day. For the guy that asked, Ruggs is the most noticeable and biggest takeaway from this data. He’s massively undersold as a guy who’s just fast and could end up like John Ross, but in reality he’s really fluid in his game, and his route running is going to translate great to the next level. We already know he’s fast, and gets separation, but it’s yet to be seen really if he translates more to tyreek or someone else with just linear speed I.e Ted Ginn or Ross.

I’ve had him top 3 and essentially in a 3 way tie for quite a while with Jeudy and lamb, but I think he’s that guy you can get at the back end of R1 that’s going to be a steal.
Nope, his Dominator Rating sucks, he's terrible.

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