More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

[Lord_Varys]

Proven? How would that even be possible? Heavy college workload doesn't doom a prospect, but to say it isn't a fatcor is silly.

proven in a research study
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... kK59Qv4R_7

Unless you find peer reviewed studies to be silly...

As usual, you take one tiny scrap of information that is somewhat adjacent to an opinion you had and decide to make it a law that rules everything moving forward.

This study separates runners in ONLY their final college season and groups them by 100-200 carries or 250+. That's it. The concern expressed was about heavy workloads over entire collegiate careers. It does about as good a job of answering that question as if you were to instead apply the ratio of Schrute Bucks to Stanley Nickels to running backs post combine.

Thanks for this.

I'm all for science, and I believe the premise that a high college workload doesn't matter... But this "study" doesn't test the hypothesis.

[Lord_Varys]

I'm curious to see if Baltimore grabs someone who could be a legit alpha WR to pair with Lamar, given the depth of the class.

Their cap spend on offense was one of the very lowest in the league. Marquise is the only real playmaker they had outside, and he was an oft injured rookie. I'm fully expecting them to make a splash at WR this year.

[Jigga94]

If the study is hogwash, then where's the proof that more college carries = higher risk of injury? Or is just the assumption people have?

I've always thought durability was player specific. Sammy Watkins could've got little to no work in college and still would've been a limping hamstring in the NFL

[djeternal2]

They don't.

Um, yeah they do. Have you looked at RB aging curves? Think any of that has something to do with being worn down in college? I do.

Well then you must not be a Henry guy or are selling him this offseason since he had almost 400 carries his final year in college. You must also not have been an Adrian Peterson guy since he had 748 carries in college the 3rd most out of the top 20 rush yard leaders in the NFL this year (Lindsay had 765 & Chubb 758). And you must be super high on Chris Carson and his 213 college carries or Miles Sanders and his 276.

Does Taylor have a ton of carries? Sure but also 0 injury history. Chubb had 150 fewer college carries and blew up his knee. Gurley had 510 college carries and blew up his knee and from all reports died this past offseason. AP had 748 in college and blew up his knee in the NFL and is still ticking.

If you want to knock him down your board or take him off it because of his # of carries by all means do so but I think you'll end up regretting it.

I had looked into this a bit a number of pages back because of course this topic is going to resurface 6 weeks later as we get close to the combine.

[skinfanjon]

If the study is hogwash, then where's the proof that more college carries = higher risk of injury? Or is just the assumption people have?

I've always thought durability was player specific. Sammy Watkins could've got little to no work in college and still would've been a limping hamstring in the NFL

I definitely dont have any proof that high college workload translates to higher risk of injury. Just making it clear that we dont have proof that it DOESNT. The study also compares mean averages for YPC and games missed between the two groups at the NFL level over their first three seasons as the basis of evaluation; after sorting into groups based total carries in the final year of college. So, just a bad sorting method and poor way to measure results, otherwise that study is pure gold.

Personally, I dont worry too much about high workloads, but it is something i will make note of and add to the pile of information to process. It may not stop me from drafting a particular prospect, but it might effect whether I view them as a long term hold or someone I want to sell after a couple seasons. All part of the soup.

ETA- I think workload concerns really only apply to RBs. They take a lot more abuse on a given play and from bigger , stronger players than a WR typically does.

[killer_of_giants]

I'm curious to see if Baltimore grabs someone who could be a legit alpha WR to pair with Lamar, given the depth of the class.

Their cap spend on offense was one of the very lowest in the league. Marquise is the only real playmaker they had outside, and he was an oft injured rookie. I'm fully expecting them to make a splash at WR this year.

aj green!

[bjd5211]

Um, yeah they do. Have you looked at RB aging curves? Think any of that has something to do with being worn down in college? I do.

Well then you must not be a Henry guy or are selling him this offseason since he had almost 400 carries his final year in college. You must also not have been an Adrian Peterson guy since he had 748 carries in college the 3rd most out of the top 20 rush yard leaders in the NFL this year (Lindsay had 765 & Chubb 758). And you must be super high on Chris Carson and his 213 college carries or Miles Sanders and his 276.

Does Taylor have a ton of carries? Sure but also 0 injury history. Chubb had 150 fewer college carries and blew up his knee. Gurley had 510 college carries and blew up his knee and from all reports died this past offseason. AP had 748 in college and blew up his knee in the NFL and is still ticking.

If you want to knock him down your board or take him off it because of his # of carries by all means do so but I think you'll end up regretting it.

I had looked into this a bit a number of pages back because of course this topic is going to resurface 6 weeks later as we get close to the combine.

Lol.

I've posted this several times when this debate comes up, attached is the list of most touches in a single season in history of the NFL. There are many recognizable names who had large workloads in the early stages of their career who went on to still be quite effective in their mid to late 20's. In fact almost all of the ones who did it during their age 21-23 seasons went on to be very productive until around 27-29, and then started to fall off as almost all RBs do at that age regardless of previous workload.

I don't have exact numbers on college touches obviously, but many of those same guys were also heavily featured in college as well and played in a more physical and dangerous era while logging more touches than most RBs receive today, but it didn't affect them any.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... season.htm

[djeternal2]

Well then you must not be a Henry guy or are selling him this offseason since he had almost 400 carries his final year in college. You must also not have been an Adrian Peterson guy since he had 748 carries in college the 3rd most out of the top 20 rush yard leaders in the NFL this year (Lindsay had 765 & Chubb 758). And you must be super high on Chris Carson and his 213 college carries or Miles Sanders and his 276.

Does Taylor have a ton of carries? Sure but also 0 injury history. Chubb had 150 fewer college carries and blew up his knee. Gurley had 510 college carries and blew up his knee and from all reports died this past offseason. AP had 748 in college and blew up his knee in the NFL and is still ticking.

If you want to knock him down your board or take him off it because of his # of carries by all means do so but I think you'll end up regretting it.

I had looked into this a bit a number of pages back because of course this topic is going to resurface 6 weeks later as we get close to the combine.

Lol.

I've posted this several times when this debate comes up, attached is the list of most touches in a single season in history of the NFL. There are many recognizable names who had large workloads in the early stages of their career who went on to still be quite effective in their mid to late 20's. In fact almost all of the ones who did it during their age 21-23 seasons went on to be very productive until around 27-29, and then started to fall off as almost all RBs do at that age regardless of previous workload.

I don't have exact numbers on college touches obviously, but many of those same guys were also heavily featured in college as well and played in a more physical and dangerous era while logging more touches than most RBs receive today, but it didn't affect them any.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... season.htm

Unfortunately that's an NFL page and the discussion is regarding college attempts. It took a little more work but here's the college page.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/le ... areer.html

Guys that had more att than Taylor and went on to have successful careers Tony Dorsett, Cedric Benson, Ricky Williams, Herschel Walker, Deangelo Williams, Thurman Thomas, LaDanian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Marcus Allen, George Rogers. Going down to 900 total carries, JT had 926, Archie Griffin & Ray Rice hit. The biggest problem with forecasting injury risk off of college carries is you get guys like Miles Sanders, Barry Sanders, Chris Carson, Josh Jacobs etc is that some guys are behind other talented guys so they don't get a ton of carries in college to make a good determination on them.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Brent Moss: '95: Undrafted. 1 year in the NFL, had a 1637 yard 16 TD season in '93 with Wisconsin.

Terrell Fletcher: '95 2nd Round Pick, 1476 yard 13 TD season in '94 and 20+ catches. Had an eight year career in NFL, but never produced more than 500+ yards rushing in a season. Was a solid satellite back (246 catches in the six seasons sandwiched around his rookie year and career finale seasons (so 40+ catches a year in that window)), but at that 2nd round cost, yikes. Not exactly a bust, or a hit.

Ron Dayne '00: Nearly 7500 yards rushing and receiving in four years, w/two 2,000 years rushing. The ultimate Wisconsin OL back. Just SLOW. Megabust (11th overall pick, never topped 773 yards in a season), but oddly did have a 7 year career, and rather interesting to note that like he was a reverse Fletcher, in his rookie and career finale season's he combined for more than 1500 rushing yards and 11 TD's. In-between those two seasons, in his five remaining years, he combined for a touch more than 2,000 years. So rather odd career, especially considering he was actually quite productive for Houston in that final season. Don't remember what happened after that (why he'd be done after his second best career season).

Michael Bennett '01: Another guy with that classic 1600 yards rushing, double digit TD season. He was a first round draft pick of the Vikes in '01, and had that famed '02 season (1600+ yards from scrimmage, 37 catches, an absurdly low 6 TDs. After that his career was derailed by injury. I always include him as a hit, along with Gordon, but it's not exactly true. Michael Bennett was a legit talent, not a bust in terms of talent, but he never, ever could stay healthy, and so he was a health, rather than a talent (see Dayne) related bust.

Anthony Davis: '05: Exploded in his first two years (3,000+ yards rushing, and 24 TD's) before fading badly in his final two (injury I imagine). Was drafted in the 7th round and quickly kicked to the curb. Played for two years in the CFL before retiring.

Brian Calhoun: '06: Transfer from Colorado, put together yet another 1600 double digit season in his one year with Wisconsin following the transfer. Third round pick of the lines. Played two years and then was done perhaps due to a torn ACL.

P.J. Hill: '09: Exploded for nearly 1,600 yards and double digit TD's in his first season, rushed for a 1000+ in his final two years. Tried to make it in the NFL, it did not happen. Zero career carries.

John Clay: Rushed for nearly 1600 yards in his second season as a starter, like Hill, he'd top off at more than 3000 career rushing yards and a gigantic pile of TD's. Went undrafted, played a tiny bit for the Steelers as an undrafted free agent before vanishing.

Montee Ball '13: After sitting behind Clay for two years he rushed for nearly 4,000 total yards combined his final two years with an additional 55 TD's (55?!?!?!). Drafted w/a 2nd rounder in 2013, he did little with Denver, got injured, bounced around and was gone w/only two years worth of actual carries.

James White: '14: 1700 yards rushing and receiving (39 catches) in his one season out of Ball's shadow. Parlayed that into a fourth round deal with the Patriots, and a long career as one of their Swiss army knife rib's.

Melvin Gordon '15: More than 4200 yards from scrimmage and 40+ TD's his final two seasons. 1st round selection of the Chargers in '15. Quite productive, if uneven, with the Chargers.

Corey Clement: '17: Rushed for 1375 yards in his one season as a full time starter. Day 3 selection for the Eagles, saw some run as a rookie Swiss army knife, but has faded badly since and missed most of '19 due to injury.


To me, if you look through this list of RB's over the past 25 years, it's essentially a horror show of massive college production and total doggy doo careers in the NFL. Compare that to the litany of All American OL's they all played with (many of whom built legit NFL careers as starters, or rotational depth guys, and or pro bowlers), it's no contest and this is why there rightfully is some skepticism of Wisconsin backs. What you see over and over and over across three decades and more than 25 years of RB's is monster OL's, and monster production no matter who the starter is/was, and then post college careers that time and again flopped over and over and over again (while the OL's hit at the normal expected rate). Probably the one thing I can say in fairness is that generally, the NFL has sniffed this out, there have been some bad misses (Dayne, and Ball in particular), but by and large, the NFL wasn't buying the mad #'s these backs were producing year after year after year, but it still isn't very pretty, only Bennett, White, and Gordon really played like NFL caliber stud RB's, and only Gordon was ever a bell cow, Bennett was derailed by injury, White may not be built for it (like T. Fletcher two decades earlier), and plays with a team that would never use him that way and the Chargers are ready to move on from Gordon after a good career so far. I will likely buy Jonathan Taylor as a prospect, but I want to see an incredible athletic profile at the combine. I have every reason to believe I will, but in general, there's a very good reason to be a bit gun shy with these guys, there's decades of evidence that Wisconsin RB's are system backs in the same way Big-12 WR's and QB's were system guys as well. But like those Big-12 QB's and WR's, you need to be able to smoke out which one's would be great anywhere, regardless of team, and Taylor seems like one of those exceptions (I don't feel about him the way I felt about Dayne, and Ball, whom I never drafted, ever, and laughed at the Giants (in the former case) for drafting, very hard).

I can't speak before the Dayne era, but many of those on the list were not your prototypical backs.

Dayne was large and slow, but he was a sledgehammer. The more you swung away the more damage he'd do. Not a NFL style back.

Bennett - Small 5'9", 207lb. Wasn't going to withstand a beating. Also had injuries.

Davis - 5'7", 205. See above^^. Easy to run through 6'7-6'8" lineman holes when the defense can't see you.

Calhoun - I honestly thought he had what it took to be something decent. Maybe it was getting drafted by the Lions or the ACL injury that derailed his career.

Hill - See Dayne, but mini style.

Ball - SMH. His head killed him. Another talent wasted, but at least he's righting the ship now by speaking to young kids back home about his failure.

White - Was a second fiddle and never was going to be lead back, but jack of all trades.

Gordon - Still in the works, but definitely no slouch. Attitude a factor?

Clement - Good athlete, but was never a projected top RB. Lesser James White that had his chance, but was bypassed by greater talent.

Taylor - Prototype RB attributes. Has incredible patience and vision. Not saying he's a sure thing, but he's probably the best prospect out of the whole bunch listed.

Yes Wisconsin always has a stacked OL which aids in the extra push, but it's no different than saying other conferences have inflated stats due to their running scores up. You're still looking at the player and not the stats. Although stats are pretty.

[OhCruelestRanter]

There seems to be some confusion about where the burden of proof is. If you’re claiming that there is an association between high college carries and short NFL careers, then the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that association.

Right now, I don’t know of any evidence that this association exists, but I’d be open to it.

[djeternal2]

Dayne was large and slow, but he was a sledgehammer. The more you swung away the more damage he'd do. Not a NFL style back.

You are very correct on Dayne. I've always felt he failed due to being int he wrong system. He was definitely a back like Henry that gets better with more carries and wearing the defense down. The Giants didn't use him that way tho. Instead he was shuffled in and out of the lineup as that was their Thunder & Lightning era with Tiki Barber being the lightning part.

[FantasyFreak]

There seems to be some confusion about where the burden of proof is. If you’re claiming that there is an association between high college carries and short NFL careers, then the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that association.

Right now, I don’t know of any evidence that this association exists, but I’d be open to it.

Exactly. If it affects your personal rankings, because you think it has an affect on their career arc, that's fine. But don't use it as an argument on a general discussion against the player without a shred of evidence to support your claim.

[djeternal2]

There seems to be some confusion about where the burden of proof is. If you’re claiming that there is an association between high college carries and short NFL careers, then the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that association.

Right now, I don’t know of any evidence that this association exists, but I’d be open to it.

[YouMightDieTryin]

If anything there can be a positive spin on the high amount of carries; meaning they can withstand the beating of taking all the carries. Less tread on the tires yes, but who needs tread when you're running slicks.

[skinfanjon]

There seems to be some confusion about where the burden of proof is. If you’re claiming that there is an association between high college carries and short NFL careers, then the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that association.

Right now, I don’t know of any evidence that this association exists, but I’d be open to it.

Was anyone really doing this though? I'm not going to re-read the last few pages and I could totally be wrong, but I thought it was just sort of causally mentioned by one or two people.

In any case, I'm just pointing out the errors in the "study" that supposedly disproved correlation beyond a shadow of doubt. The "study" did not actually test the hypothesis whatsoever.

Wear and tear at the collegiete level doesn't concern me very much and I can't even think of one time I swerved away from a prospect because of it.