stoneghost28 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:00 pm
Brent Moss: '95: Undrafted. 1 year in the NFL, had a 1637 yard 16 TD season in '93 with Wisconsin.
Terrell Fletcher: '95 2nd Round Pick, 1476 yard 13 TD season in '94 and 20+ catches. Had an eight year career in NFL, but never produced more than 500+ yards rushing in a season. Was a solid satellite back (246 catches in the six seasons sandwiched around his rookie year and career finale seasons (so 40+ catches a year in that window)), but at that 2nd round cost, yikes. Not exactly a bust, or a hit.
Ron Dayne '00: Nearly 7500 yards rushing and receiving in four years, w/two 2,000 years rushing. The ultimate Wisconsin OL back. Just SLOW. Megabust (11th overall pick, never topped 773 yards in a season), but oddly did have a 7 year career, and rather interesting to note that like he was a reverse Fletcher, in his rookie and career finale season's he combined for more than 1500 rushing yards and 11 TD's. In-between those two seasons, in his five remaining years, he combined for a touch more than 2,000 years. So rather odd career, especially considering he was actually quite productive for Houston in that final season. Don't remember what happened after that (why he'd be done after his second best career season).
Michael Bennett '01: Another guy with that classic 1600 yards rushing, double digit TD season. He was a first round draft pick of the Vikes in '01, and had that famed '02 season (1600+ yards from scrimmage, 37 catches, an absurdly low 6 TDs. After that his career was derailed by injury. I always include him as a hit, along with Gordon, but it's not exactly true. Michael Bennett was a legit talent, not a bust in terms of talent, but he never, ever could stay healthy, and so he was a health, rather than a talent (see Dayne) related bust.
Anthony Davis: '05: Exploded in his first two years (3,000+ yards rushing, and 24 TD's) before fading badly in his final two (injury I imagine). Was drafted in the 7th round and quickly kicked to the curb. Played for two years in the CFL before retiring.
Brian Calhoun: '06: Transfer from Colorado, put together yet another 1600 double digit season in his one year with Wisconsin following the transfer. Third round pick of the lines. Played two years and then was done perhaps due to a torn ACL.
P.J. Hill: '09: Exploded for nearly 1,600 yards and double digit TD's in his first season, rushed for a 1000+ in his final two years. Tried to make it in the NFL, it did not happen. Zero career carries.
John Clay: Rushed for nearly 1600 yards in his second season as a starter, like Hill, he'd top off at more than 3000 career rushing yards and a gigantic pile of TD's. Went undrafted, played a tiny bit for the Steelers as an undrafted free agent before vanishing.
Montee Ball '13: After sitting behind Clay for two years he rushed for nearly 4,000 total yards combined his final two years with an additional 55 TD's (55?!?!?!). Drafted w/a 2nd rounder in 2013, he did little with Denver, got injured, bounced around and was gone w/only two years worth of actual carries.
James White: '14: 1700 yards rushing and receiving (39 catches) in his one season out of Ball's shadow. Parlayed that into a fourth round deal with the Patriots, and a long career as one of their Swiss army knife rib's.
Melvin Gordon '15: More than 4200 yards from scrimmage and 40+ TD's his final two seasons. 1st round selection of the Chargers in '15. Quite productive, if uneven, with the Chargers.
Corey Clement: '17: Rushed for 1375 yards in his one season as a full time starter. Day 3 selection for the Eagles, saw some run as a rookie Swiss army knife, but has faded badly since and missed most of '19 due to injury.
To me, if you look through this list of RB's over the past 25 years, it's essentially a horror show of massive college production and total doggy doo careers in the NFL. Compare that to the litany of All American OL's they all played with (many of whom built legit NFL careers as starters, or rotational depth guys, and or pro bowlers), it's no contest and this is why there rightfully is some skepticism of Wisconsin backs. What you see over and over and over across three decades and more than 25 years of RB's is monster OL's, and monster production no matter who the starter is/was, and then post college careers that time and again flopped over and over and over again (while the OL's hit at the normal expected rate). Probably the one thing I can say in fairness is that generally, the NFL has sniffed this out, there have been some bad misses (Dayne, and Ball in particular), but by and large, the NFL wasn't buying the mad #'s these backs were producing year after year after year, but it still isn't very pretty, only Bennett, White, and Gordon really played like NFL caliber stud RB's, and only Gordon was ever a bell cow, Bennett was derailed by injury, White may not be built for it (like T. Fletcher two decades earlier), and plays with a team that would never use him that way and the Chargers are ready to move on from Gordon after a good career so far. I will likely buy Jonathan Taylor as a prospect, but I want to see an incredible athletic profile at the combine. I have every reason to believe I will, but in general, there's a very good reason to be a bit gun shy with these guys, there's decades of evidence that Wisconsin RB's are system backs in the same way Big-12 WR's and QB's were system guys as well. But like those Big-12 QB's and WR's, you need to be able to smoke out which one's would be great anywhere, regardless of team, and Taylor seems like one of those exceptions (I don't feel about him the way I felt about Dayne, and Ball, whom I never drafted, ever, and laughed at the Giants (in the former case) for drafting, very hard).