Plenty of teams have a player that was a first or second round pick a few years ago that hasn't lived up to expectation.. the Doctson, Parker, Ross's of the world. Basically my question is, how long do you sit on a player? Do you give them two years? Do you extend that if they lose a year to injury? Do you wait for their second contract?
Or is it more complicated than a deadline? Where you look at a player like Doctson and say "he's had opportunity and hasn't done much with it."
Do you ever leave a player on the end of your roster until it's time to cut them for incoming rookies? Or do you always sell for what you can get when they start trending downward in ADP?
Anyway, bunch of questions, I welcome any thoughts on the subject.
The waiting game
Re: The waiting game
There is a concept called "loss aversion" look it up. The quicker you can figure out a guy doesn't (or won't) have value and cut bait the better off you are.
Re: The waiting game
I usually give WR I REALLY like 3 years... Davis is coming up on that. I know it's not all him, but at some point... That said, I gave up on guys like Doctson and Ross a while ago.
RB are a little more straightforward in my opinion. Either he does well or not early on... If he has draft capital he will get some more shots, if not he has a shorter leash. If a rookie RB doesn't show up in the first year or 2, it's probably time to forget.
TE and QB take some time to develop and i don't have much advice on them as I just seem to get lucky lol
RB are a little more straightforward in my opinion. Either he does well or not early on... If he has draft capital he will get some more shots, if not he has a shorter leash. If a rookie RB doesn't show up in the first year or 2, it's probably time to forget.
TE and QB take some time to develop and i don't have much advice on them as I just seem to get lucky lol
Re: The waiting game
I wait until they're the lowest player on my totem pole and someone needs to be ejected for a weekly play from the waiver wire.
Re: The waiting game
It varies on the player, the cost to acquire that player, the position, the draft capital, the draft profile, etc.. for me anyways. I liked Doctson a lot, and so I was heavily invested in him. I started getting out after Y1. A couple years ago I railed against Kevin White, Josh Doctson, Breshad Perriman, and John Ross (for which I received a lot of crap), saying that round 1 WR's who missed their entire rookie season were basically a lost cause and to accept nearly any trade you could pull off.
For someone like Davis, I would ride him into the ground (same with Sammy Watkins), unless someone was giving me something that truly benefited my roster, or a high enough rookie pick that I could reset the clock, which won't owners probably wouldn't do. Davis has flashed quite a bit in my opinion, so I don't think talent is an issue, the situation is. But I think Tennessee is an obvious buy situation personally, for fantasy, and I say that with extreme confidence because I can tell on these boards everyone has already written them off, which tells me they'll be wrong. "Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy," - Warren Buffet.
For someone like Davis, I would ride him into the ground (same with Sammy Watkins), unless someone was giving me something that truly benefited my roster, or a high enough rookie pick that I could reset the clock, which won't owners probably wouldn't do. Davis has flashed quite a bit in my opinion, so I don't think talent is an issue, the situation is. But I think Tennessee is an obvious buy situation personally, for fantasy, and I say that with extreme confidence because I can tell on these boards everyone has already written them off, which tells me they'll be wrong. "Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy," - Warren Buffet.
Re: The waiting game
I love how everyone is talko g about Corey davis. I feel like this is exactly who OP was thinking about when he posted. Lol.
I'm honestly not worried. EVEN if he has a bad next year. Unhappy? Yes but not necessarily worried per se
I'm honestly not worried. EVEN if he has a bad next year. Unhappy? Yes but not necessarily worried per se
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Darnold(NYJ)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -DHopkins(ARI)ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI DAL
[rookie] Haskins(WAS)DSwift(DET)Jefferson(MIN)MHardman(KC)
7th pick in 2021
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players don't take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd-year players that were drafted
Re: The waiting game
You should be worried if he doesn't breakout this year because the success rate of 1st round WR's breaking out after Y3 is extremely low.
EDIT: Although CD's sophomore season was pretty solid, especially when you consider the circumstances. 65-891-4. His 891 yards is a 30% market share of the offense. For comparison: Julio 36%, Antonio Brown 27%, Stefon Diggs 27% (Thielen 34%), Keenan Allen 29%, Mike Evans 30%. So his role in the offense is right there, the Titans were such a disaster last year though it didn't reflect.
-
- GOAT
- Posts: 14224
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm
Re: The waiting game
After 3 years you typically know what you have in a WR. Sometimes there are 4th and 5th year, or the elusive 6th year breakout (MONCRIEF!!! ) but typically the 3rd year tells all. By the end of 3 years, a team is typically going to look to replace or put the signs in place that they are moving on from that player.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests