Page 2 of 3

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed May 01, 2019 9:26 am
by Toltec
You play. To win. The game.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed May 01, 2019 9:36 am
by lukkynumber13
Ruggenater wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 8:45 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 5:15 am
A little off topic here, but I consider the term "tanking" defined as intentional losing by setting less than your best lineup. Completely unethical and will start a firestorm unless the league specifically allows it.

Trading away your veterans, building up draft picks and youth (or a startup focused on those), is something else and is legit and ethical. What is a good term for that?
Rebuilding.
In my case, I’m not rebuilding tho, although normally I’d agree with that term.

For me, I’d call it a “productive struggle”. Or “delayed competitiveness”

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:41 am
by lukkynumber13
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 4:46 am
Clarion is taking this approach in the new Early Birds Special league that was just formed here comprised of mostly senior board members.

I think it is a viable strategy. When most teams zig, there may be a benefit to zagging.

As for the comment that players should be looked at as assets, I agree with that to a certain point. However, unlike a stock market where there are hundreds of thousands if not millions of buyers, your average dynasty league has between 11 and 15 potential trade.partners, and many have player biases and almost all are focused on team needs, not just improving team value. Plus, there is no currency in dynasty, which is actually a barter system if you think about it. Finallys, the most "valuable" team often doesn't win... That is a truism that stands up in almost every year.
Very well said. I suppose a better analogy would be someone who flips houses, or guys who buy antiques and stuff for cheap and then re-sell to buyers down the road for big profit.

There is no locked-in guaranteed profit, but as long as you’re willing to hustle (I mean that as in work hard to get trades done, not hustle as in cheat) and not get emotionally attached to assets, it’s usually not too hard to build a really good team through consistent trading. Definitely does require an active league tho, that’s for sure.

As for currency, you’re right in a sense, but what is “currency”? Does a barter system not use currency? Currency is defined as assets that have value to people inside an economy, right?

So players, while holding value, are like a house. You’ve gotta find the right buyer. You may have to sit on it for awhile.

Draft picks, Firsts in particular, are highly liquid. They are almost like cash (not totally like cash, as they still hold differing values to different buyers), in that you will always be able to move them for some sort of return, should you desire to sell.

And absolutely, I agree. The team with most “dynasty value” has no guarantee to win. But it does help, over the course of years ;)

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed May 01, 2019 11:13 am
by Ruggenater
My guess is you've already done this given the depth you go into with the analyses you post here, but a good starting point would be to look at how scoring came out last year in your league to figure out what VBD (/Value Over Replacement) would have you picking. Some positions fall off REALLY fast (TE), some have a few high performers followed by relatively flat scoring levels and then a cliff (QBs, typically, but maybe not in your setting. DTs usually fall into this category as well.), some are a nice gradual decline (WRs and LBs), some are mostly flat throughout (CB), etc. Even better if you have the time to span a few years to limit the effect of outliers (looking at you, Darius Leonard).

That'll help you construct what an ideal team might look like--maybe it's got top a TE and DT, but middle-of-the-road WRs and LBs. Now, that's not to say you'll have a must-stick-to-it draft strategy, but it'll help you better appreciate positional value in your league so you know when you should be making sure you get the last player at position X in tier Y versus another player at position Z you were considering.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:03 am
by lukkynumber13
SO - after exactly one month, the 53-round startup draft for this 32-team DOUBLE-copy league is winding to a close (I made my last pick yesterday - like 30 picks to go now).

Here’s my roster (will be able to stash some more fliers here in a couple days, once FA opens up for us post-draft):

QB: Darnold, Haskins, Rosen (start 1)

RB: Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, A. Mattison, Alex Collins (start 1-4)

WR: Keenan Allen, Corey Davis, Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, DK Metcalf, Josh Reynolds, Marcell Ateman (start 3-6)

TE: Evan Engram, OJ Howard, Gerald Everett, Drew Sample, Dalton Schultz (start 1-3)

DT: Sheldon Rankins, Jeffery Simmons (start 1-2)

DE: Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport, Brian Burns, Takk McKinley, Carl Lawson, Romeo Okwara, Kemoko Turay, Josh Sweat (start 2)

No LBs, CBs, or safeties yet. I will grab a few guys to stash, but I’ll get my starters NEXT year for these groups. They are positions best viewed from a redraft mentality given the turnover that we see every year.

AS FOR DRAFT CAPITAL - Here’s where I really focused.

In the 2020 class: I now have 7 Firsts, 10 seconds, 5 thirds, 7 fourths, & 5 fifths.

In the 2021 class: 2 Firsts, 5 seconds, 3 thirds, 2 fourths, & 2 fifths.

Handful of 6ths & 7ths in both 20 & 21 rookie classes.

And keep in mind, in a league that starts 11 IDP with complex & balanced defensive scoring, tons of offensive players fall. In a similar league to this, guys like Dante Pettis & Cooper Kupp go late 3rd or even mid 4th. Terry McLaurin went in the 6th in a similar league. Noah Fant fell to the mid 2nd in 2 leagues with a similar format. Even in the 7th round, stash guys like Dawson Knox/Drew Sample/Bruce Anderson/3rd tier IDP rookies can readily be found.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:16 am
by moishetreats
Nice!!! Almost exclusively players who should improve on the offensive side (I don't do IDP), and -- wow!!! -- a disgusting boatload of future picks.

Nice!!! Thanks for sharing the results!

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:39 am
by Flgatorguy87
You certainly have a young team. Now the pressure is on to hit on those players. Lots of picks are great, but if you don't hit then it's a perpetual rebuild.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:05 pm
by bjd5211
I like it, and mid-season if/when you are out of contention you have a guy in Keenan Allen who could be a big time trade asset if you decide to go that route and add even more picks. He's certainly not old and is worth keeping around unless you get the right offer, but he is the Old Man of your team especially at WR.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 pm
by lukkynumber13
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:05 pm
I like it, and mid-season if/when you are out of contention you have a guy in Keenan Allen who could be a big time trade asset if you decide to go that route and add even more picks. He's certainly not old and is worth keeping around unless you get the right offer, but he is the Old Man of your team especially at WR.
Exactly. I won’t be selling anyone short (as even “win now” guys like Allen, Hunter, & Jacobs are young. Allen is 26/27), but I’ll look to sell Allen and probably Jacobs within the next year if they are having good years.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:39 pm
by ArrylT
lukkynumber13 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:05 pm
I like it, and mid-season if/when you are out of contention you have a guy in Keenan Allen who could be a big time trade asset if you decide to go that route and add even more picks. He's certainly not old and is worth keeping around unless you get the right offer, but he is the Old Man of your team especially at WR.
Exactly. I won’t be selling anyone short (as even “win now” guys like Allen, Hunter, & Jacobs are young. Allen is 26/27), but I’ll look to sell Allen and probably Jacobs within the next year if they are having good years.
Just to clarify - this is a 32 team league correct? So any of the 1sts that you acquired could be anywhere from 1.01 to 1.32? And then because it is double copy - its basically the same rookie value as a 16 team league with IDP?

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:27 pm
by snaps06
lukkynumber13 wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 9:36 am
Ruggenater wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 8:45 am
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 5:15 am
A little off topic here, but I consider the term "tanking" defined as intentional losing by setting less than your best lineup. Completely unethical and will start a firestorm unless the league specifically allows it.

Trading away your veterans, building up draft picks and youth (or a startup focused on those), is something else and is legit and ethical. What is a good term for that?
Rebuilding.
In my case, I’m not rebuilding tho, although normally I’d agree with that term.

For me, I’d call it a “productive struggle”. Or “delayed competitiveness”
Productive struggle is the exact strategy I employed for team 3 in my sig, and after a rough first year where I finished 9th, I finished 3rd this year. Sold high and bought low, and focused on turning single assets into multiple upside assets and future picks.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:45 pm
by lukkynumber13
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:39 pm
lukkynumber13 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:05 pm
I like it, and mid-season if/when you are out of contention you have a guy in Keenan Allen who could be a big time trade asset if you decide to go that route and add even more picks. He's certainly not old and is worth keeping around unless you get the right offer, but he is the Old Man of your team especially at WR.
Exactly. I won’t be selling anyone short (as even “win now” guys like Allen, Hunter, & Jacobs are young. Allen is 26/27), but I’ll look to sell Allen and probably Jacobs within the next year if they are having good years.
Just to clarify - this is a 32 team league correct? So any of the 1sts that you acquired could be anywhere from 1.01 to 1.32? And then because it is double copy - its basically the same rookie value as a 16 team league with IDP?
Exactly.

And judging off of how the startup has gone, there is a PRETTY eclectic group of drafters within the 32. So I feel fairly confident that some solid dudes will be falling into rounds 2 and beyond.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:15 am
by BigBawseRoss
DONT WORRY ABOUT IT THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE FUN!

now i suggest building the best team you can and then addressing if you are win now or planning for future as you size up the competition and get a feel for how old or young your squad is in general. i think going in with a plan to fail and rely on youth is not a good one. there are times it can work fine, for instance in a startup i did 2 years ago i went pretty dang young (partly for fun but also because i felt the players were of good value and people seemed to take the sure thing over the unproven thing over and over but i liked the chances each of my guys had) and i ended up with Wentz, Fournette, Kamara, D Henry, DFree, Landry, CD, MWill, Ebron. this one didnt have idp but was an example of taking quite a few rookies and 2nd year players and ending up with a very good team.

dont go after cb at all i beg you. DT also dies off hard after the top few.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:18 am
by lukkynumber13
(To BigBawseRoss ^ )

Haha don’t worry, I wouldn’t be drafting CBs even if I WAS trying to win it all this year. I actually drafted zero DBs or LBs at all. Grabbed a stud DE (Hunter) and lots of young guys with potential, and a couple DTs.

Re: My first big-boy startup is nigh - tank the first year??

Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:25 am
by bjd5211
Why the Zero LB strategy? Aren't LB typically the most valuable IDP players?