I don't want any late round rookie picks

[FuzzySignificance]

A few of my leagues are populated by exactly the type of people who voted 8-4 to start drafting as soon as the draft ended and I get to about 2.9 and find that I just don't want any of these guys on my roster. I've been packaging them up and moving theml for 2020 firsts.

What am I missing? Clearly some people are excited enough by the late round picks to give up future draft equity.

[jordanzs]

Rookie fever mate!

Capitalize on it appropriately. Many late round picks will fizzle out but a small few of them will become household names and go in the 1st 4 rounds of startups by 2021.

[millworkguy]

This is why I love salary cap leagues. In your league all that matters is that they take up a roster spot, do you have a taxi squad? In my salary cap leagues late round picks (when they hit) are a gold mine. $65,000 cap and your number 2 wr is $7 bucks for the next 5 seasons, gives you the ability to outbid another owner for another stud, I love them on my ts for a year or two. Even if I only hit 3. I've got kenny golladay at $43 bucks for 6 years. It's an idp league but c kupp went in the 4th that year, and golladay in the 5th. Both are worth a fortune at their salary.

[ArrylT]

The tiers in this years class are described by many as long and flat - so basically you're potentially getting guys in the 3rd & 4th rounds that easily could have 2nd round value, or have been drafted in the 2nd round in some cases in other rookie drafts..

[jman3134]

The tiers in this years class are described by many as long and flat - so basically you're potentially getting guys in the 3rd & 4th rounds that easily could have 2nd round value, or have been drafted in the 2nd round in some cases in other rookie drafts..

I don't see why this is the case. Most of the wide receivers slipped to the 2nd round this year. And there were more RB and WR in the last few rounds.

In 2018, there were 14 WRs, 6 RBs drafted in rounds 6-7 (out of 33 WRs, 21 RBs total).

This year, there were 9 WRs, 9 RBs drafted in rounds 6-7 (out of 28 WRs, 24 RBs total).

More WR/RBs were drafted a year ago. There were also more late round selections. This suggests to me that there was better depth a year ago and that this is only rookie fever. (unless people are super high on QBs and TEs)

The tiers are long only bc it seems there is less top end talent, or less top end talent in the right landing spots. The number of potentially impactful WRs/RBs should be less than a year ago.

[MrUbuto]

I'm divided on this issue.

I think if there was ever a year to load up on 2nd round picks it's this year because of this draft being perceived as "weak" but in reality actually very deep.

I'm generally with you though and we do our draft week 3 of pre season. Our rosters just arent big enough to have too many picks. I'll take 2 late 1st over 4 mid 2nds all day

[millworkguy]

The tiers in this years class are described by many as long and flat - so basically you're potentially getting guys in the 3rd & 4th rounds that easily could have 2nd round value, or have been drafted in the 2nd round in some cases in other rookie drafts..

I don't see why this is the case. Most of the wide receivers slipped to the 2nd round this year. And there were more RB and WR in the last few rounds.

The tiers are long only bc it seems there is less top end talent, or less top end talent in the right landing spots. The number of potentially impactful WRs/RBs should be less than a year ago.

Not quote sure what the 2nd poster was trying to say here. The 1st post never made any mention to previous years, just that this years are long and flat , to which the second poster explained why in their last paragraph.
So, why dont you see this as the case? (1st sentance)

[millworkguy]

I'm divided on this issue.

I think if there was ever a year to load up on 2nd round picks it's this year because of this draft being perceived as "weak"

Gotta agree with this, I'm having a hard time spending draft capital to move up. And where I am 3-5 , happy to stay there, where I am 12-16 just not interested in the prices for the talent at 7

[jenkins.math]

I'm divided on this issue.

I think if there was ever a year to load up on 2nd round picks it's this year because of this draft being perceived as "weak" but in reality actually very deep.

I'm generally with you though and we do our draft week 3 of pre season. Our rosters just arent big enough to have too many picks. I'll take 2 late 1st over 4 mid 2nds all day

If you can get some cheap late firsts/early seconds this would be the year. For me, Jacobs is the clear number 1. After that, you could probably ask people for their mock draft and they all have different orders for pics 1.02-1.12. I really don't see much difference at all in the bulk of those guys, and from a value standpoint, I would much rather get Hollywood Brown (who I don't love as a prospect fwiw) around 1.08 than take N'Keal Harry at 1.02. I just like the value much more in the last first/early second than I do at the top of the first.

I agree that the tiers are long and flat as others have stated. I disagree though that you will be getting typical 2nd round talent in the 3rd or 4th round. In fact, I think about half of the first round in the 2019 rookie draft would be 2nd rounders or later the past few seasons.

[jman3134]

The tiers in this years class are described by many as long and flat - so basically you're potentially getting guys in the 3rd & 4th rounds that easily could have 2nd round value, or have been drafted in the 2nd round in some cases in other rookie drafts..

I don't see why this is the case. Most of the wide receivers slipped to the 2nd round this year. And there were more RB and WR in the last few rounds.

The tiers are long only bc it seems there is less top end talent, or less top end talent in the right landing spots. The number of potentially impactful WRs/RBs should be less than a year ago.

Not quote sure what the 2nd poster was trying to say here. The 1st post never made any mention to previous years, just that this years are long and flat , to which the second poster explained why in their last paragraph.
So, why dont you see this as the case? (1st sentance)

I was providing anecdotal data points suggesting that 2019 dynasty 3rd and 4th rounds are not any different from prior years'. Pick distribution to later rounds is similar. 34 guys with sufficient draft capital (rounds 1-5) in 2018 vs. 34 in 2019. In a standard 12 team dynasty draft (48 picks), this seems pretty in-line with last year. So it is not longer and more value cannot be found in rounds 3-4. My position is that this year's class is weaker throughout - top to bottom.

Not to mention the fact that when reviewing tape, I will take the Trey Quinn, Justin Jackson, and Phillip Lindsay's over almost anyone in this year's 3-4 round.

[jman3134]

I'm divided on this issue.

I think if there was ever a year to load up on 2nd round picks it's this year because of this draft being perceived as "weak" but in reality actually very deep.

I'm generally with you though and we do our draft week 3 of pre season. Our rosters just arent big enough to have too many picks. I'll take 2 late 1st over 4 mid 2nds all day

If you can get some cheap late firsts/early seconds this would be the year. For me, Jacobs is the clear number 1. After that, you could probably ask people for their mock draft and they all have different orders for pics 1.02-1.12. I really don't see much difference at all in the bulk of those guys, and from a value standpoint, I would much rather get Hollywood Brown (who I don't love as a prospect fwiw) around 1.08 than take N'Keal Harry at 1.02. I just like the value much more in the last first/early second than I do at the top of the first.

I agree that the tiers are long and flat as others have stated. I disagree though that you will be getting typical 2nd round talent in the 3rd or 4th round. In fact, I think about half of the first round in the 2019 rookie draft would be 2nd rounders or later the past few seasons.

I agree with this. I think much of the 1st would be a 2nd in a typical draft and that there is a drop off after mid 2nd. Late 1st early 2nd is the place to be in this one.

[wickerkat1212]

i actually think it's more of a mess at the top. i kind of like the 2nd and 3rd round picks. i see lots of value there.

[MrUbuto]

i actually think it's more of a mess at the top. i kind of like the 2nd and 3rd round picks. i see lots of value there.

Yea. Top 4 all seem like "sure things" then it's almost 20 guys all jumbled up. You might as well load up on the 2nds and have more shots.

[Krypto_King]

I can see about a 2-3 tier drop in talent around pick 18-19. I don't think I want to touch the Damien, Hurd, Mclaurin, Diontae, Justice tier

[MrUbuto]

I will remind people that April 29th of 2018,17,16,15.... etc is always pretty indecisive.

We knew Barkley 1.1 and everyones 1.2-1.12 was jumbled. DJ Moore was 1.2 a lot of places, penny, even rojo or Ridley.

Things become more clear as camp hits and of course when we get a few preseason games.