Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

[Anteaters]

I would like to point out, as a reference point, Miles had averaged 16 touches per game for his career coming into this year. He is at 13.5 this season. I don't think we can say the problem is the current coaching staff. Pederson didn't feature him as well.

The problem isn't the average touches per game but the sharp divide in a decent number of them versus being a benchworthy fantasy player.
Rush attempts, targets-
Week 1- 15/5
Week 2- 13/4
Week 3- 2/4
Week 4- 7/3

I was ready to dismiss week 3 as an aberration, but two weeks of low rush attempts without a corresponding increase in targets is a concern.

Sanders may not be an elite talent, but if you believe he is still a long term NFL player and situation/scheme is holding back his production/performance, then he's a buy low target. From an NFL perspective, he's still on his rookie contract, making him a trade candidate before this month's deadline.

My point was more that he had low usage % his whole career, just not current staff. I think it is fair to say there is something in his profile we are unaware of.

The low usage % is a symptom of poor coaching/playcalling, not necessarily a poor RB.

Look at the usage in weeks 1 & 2. When Sanders got 19 touches in week 1, he went over 100 yards and had 5.9yptouch. When he got 14 touches in week 2, he got 59 yards, which was 4.2ypt. In week 3, he got 5 touches, 55 yards, 11yptouch. In week 4, he got 10 touches, 47 yards, 4.7yptouch.

Sanders is producing when he gets touches. Whether he gets 5 touches or 20 touches, he produces. That the coach doesn't ensure a productive player touches the ball more is a failure of play calling, not a failure of Sanders.

I agree that as long as the playcalling is this pathetic, Sanders is barely worth playing. At some point, no matter how bad a coach he is, you gotta figure Sirianni will be smart enough to get Sanders more touches. Right?

[kmbryant09]

What’s confusing about that?

Every sign, including the fact that he is in a 50/50 timeshare and getting out produced by the 1B, points to him not being startable in fantasy. If I could sell him for any 1st I would. Or a 2nd + a similar type depth RB like a Pollard or Gainwell, I would.

Barring that he is a bye week fill in and emergency start in case of multiple injuries on my roster. This is well under everyone’s expectations for him these last few years. It is very disappointing and I wish I sold last year at the latest.

I gotta call you out on this BS.

M. Sanders has 37 carries, 14 targets, 11 catches = 48 touches
K. Gainwell has 19 carries, 18 targets, 13 catches = 32 touches

M. Sanders has 60%+ snap share in every game (averaging 66%)
K. Gainwell has <39% snap share in every game (averaging 34%)

In what way is that a 50/50 timeshare??

M. Sanders is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per catch
K. Gainwell is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per catch (not to mention he's had a few cupcake runs on 3rd & long against prevent defenses)

In what way is Gainwell outplaying Sanders?

Gainwell has been lucky to get his 2 TDs. One even came directly after Sanders had to take a breather after a few nice runs and a 30 yard screen pass that he took down to the 5 - needed a breather, and Gainwell walked into the EZ on the next snap.

We can talk about the coaching staff's ludicrous play-calling splits, the negative game script for a RB not seeing 60%+ of the receiving work, or potential lack of TDs in an offense trying to make their QB look like a star.

But this BS narrative that he's in a 50/50 timeshare and being outplayed by Gainwell is just so completely wrong.

Sanders has actually looked GREAT in pretty much every facet of the games this season except the offense generating no push against a KC defense that was clearly prioritizing the run game. Outside of that, Sanders is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has created explosive plays through the air. This coaching staff is just lost when it comes to game-planning, play-calling, and distributing touches - and Sanders is completely unreliable in fantasy right now because of that.

But let's stop with the claims that he's in a timeshare and being outplayed.

[KingsKing]

Great post

[Pullo Vision]

Great post

Yep!

[Anteaters]

Great post

++

[dondickenson]

What’s confusing about that?

Every sign, including the fact that he is in a 50/50 timeshare and getting out produced by the 1B, points to him not being startable in fantasy. If I could sell him for any 1st I would. Or a 2nd + a similar type depth RB like a Pollard or Gainwell, I would.

Barring that he is a bye week fill in and emergency start in case of multiple injuries on my roster. This is well under everyone’s expectations for him these last few years. It is very disappointing and I wish I sold last year at the latest.

I gotta call you out on this BS.

M. Sanders has 37 carries, 14 targets, 11 catches = 48 touches
K. Gainwell has 19 carries, 18 targets, 13 catches = 32 touches

M. Sanders has 60%+ snap share in every game (averaging 66%)
K. Gainwell has <39% snap share in every game (averaging 34%)

In what way is that a 50/50 timeshare??

M. Sanders is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per catch
K. Gainwell is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per catch (not to mention he's had a few cupcake runs on 3rd & long against prevent defenses)

In what way is Gainwell outplaying Sanders?

Gainwell has been lucky to get his 2 TDs. One even came directly after Sanders had to take a breather after a few nice runs and a 30 yard screen pass that he took down to the 5 - needed a breather, and Gainwell walked into the EZ on the next snap.

We can talk about the coaching staff's ludicrous play-calling splits, the negative game script for a RB not seeing 60%+ of the receiving work, or potential lack of TDs in an offense trying to make their QB look like a star.

But this BS narrative that he's in a 50/50 timeshare and being outplayed by Gainwell is just so completely wrong.

Sanders has actually looked GREAT in pretty much every facet of the games this season except the offense generating no push against a KC defense that was clearly prioritizing the run game. Outside of that, Sanders is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has created explosive plays through the air. This coaching staff is just lost when it comes to game-planning, play-calling, and distributing touches - and Sanders is completely unreliable in fantasy right now because of that.

But let's stop with the claims that he's in a timeshare and being outplayed.

Last 2 games:

Sanders
9 carries 40 yds 4.4ypc 0TD
7 targets 6 rec 62 yds 10.3ypr 0TD

Gainwell
3 carries 33 yds 11ypc 1TD
12 targets 9 rec 90 yds 10ypr 0TD


This is what Sirianni has to say about Gainwell:

“We kind of saw Kenny's tape ... and we were like, ‘Man, that's the guy. That's the guy that kind of fits that role of plays we've kind of schemed for guys like that who have had good success,’" Sirianni said of Gainwell.

"And then you see how strong he was with the ball in his hands. Like, he's a strong dude. And he can break tackles. He's just got good lower-body strength, good balance. And you saw that not only did he have that ability to make the play within the pass game but also in the run game."

This is big praise for Gainwell.

And here is Sirianni on Sanders:

“Does he want the football? Of course he does. And that’s any good player, any player in general. And that’s the same way it’s going to be in the receiver room or the tight end room or the running back room. They all want the ball.

That’s a good problem to have that you got guys that want the football. And that’s our job to get it to them. But there is only one football. And when you kind are going up and down the field like we did last week, the guys that got the football last week, it was just a product of what was happening. And so, I think the guys see that.”

This is lukewarm at best for Sanders.

People can stick their head in the sand all they want and rest on the four game sample size where it’s a 60/40 split for Sanders and the rookie. But it is trending 50/50 and will imo probably be a situation where Sanders gets 10 carries and a few targets and Gainwell gets 5 carries and 5 targets. And Hurts will get 1/3 of the rushing fantasy share to boot. In other words, I think Hurts and Gainwell both get about 150 touches and Sanders upwards of 200. I think all 3 score roughly the same amount of fantasy points as rusher/receivers.

I own Sanders and am not happy about this, but I’m not gonna make deceptive posts pretending it’s all gonna be okay because he’s out snapping a rookie still 4 games into his career and is being efficient while getting the least valuable touches while the rookie is smashing with the most valuable touches consistently already.

[dondickenson]

Damn just looked this up too…

Of all 95 players in the NFL in 2021 with at least 2 carries inside the red zone, Sanders has performed the worst, with 4 carries for -3 yards. Inside the 10(and inside the 5) Sanders also has performed by far the worst of any other player in the NFL with 2 carries for -7 yards.

Gainwell meanwhile has performed the best per touch of any of the 95 players in the NFL with at least 2 carries inside the red zone, taking those 2 carries for 15 yards and 2 TDs. Both of those were from inside the 10 so he is also the most efficient in the league from inside the 10. Gainwell has received no goal line work inside the 5 like Sanders has though.

For reference Hurts has 5 carries for 17 yards and 1TD in the red zone, with 2 of those carries and the TD coming from goal line situation inside the 5.

Sure regression is a good argument, and I hope it happens and Sanders starts performing better where it counts, but also, so is the fact that Gainwell is straight up performing very well in the most valuable areas of the game for fantasy(receiving and inside 20), and saying him scoring TDs has been “lucky” when Sanders has been given multiple more chances, and from closer in, and has absolutely sh*t the bed with those chances, is disingenuous at best.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm not that high on Sanders myself, but carries inside the 5 are sooooooo Offensive Line dependant. I remember at one point Chubb had like 12 carries for -15 yards inside the 5 or something stupid like that. Unless you have Trent Richardson level vision, it's really not on a RB most of the time. The OL is the main function of goal to go work. Some players do have a bit more power, or wiggle to sometimes create a little something, but the OL makes or breaks short yardage runs most of the time.

I do think that there was some ownership bias at work with the "lucky" comments about Gainwell, while Sanders "looked GREAT" etc.

[dondickenson]

I'm not that high on Sanders myself, but carries inside the 5 are sooooooo Offensive Line dependant. I remember at one point Chubb had like 12 carries for -15 yards inside the 5 or something stupid like that. Unless you have Trent Richardson level vision, it's really not on a RB most of the time. The OL is the main function of goal to go work. Some players do have a bit more power, or wiggle to sometimes create a little something, but the OL makes or breaks short yardage runs most of the time.

I do think that there was some ownership bias at work with the "lucky" comments about Gainwell, while Sanders "looked GREAT" etc.

Yeah agreed I expect regression to mean on inside 20/10/5 rushing, and it doesn’t matter that much to me. Just interesting to see one is the worst in the league and one the best right now, polar opposites.

I’m a Sanders owner and was looking to buy him “low” in a second league recently, I should be biased towards him too and feel I actually am, I’m just not delusional or emotional about it.

Regardless of personal feelings, I think the best analysis for fantasy purposes is in their volume. With all 3 healthy my best prognostication is that Sanders gets 200 touches 75% of which will be rushes, Gainwell gets 150 touches 50% of which will be rushes, and Hurts will get 150 rushes.

What can we really expect from these guys given this volume?

Sanders - 700 rushing 6 TD, 400 receiving 2 TD
Gainwell - 350 rushing 4 TD, 600 receiving 3 TD
Hurts - 800 rushing 6 TD

Sanders and Gainwell both RB20-25 ppg in PPR? Gainwell a bit lower in 0.5 and STD?
Hurts probably a top 5 QB ppg in 2020 with continued even below average passing stats?

Yeah that’s about right imo. Can quibble about talent and mismanagement and everything and all three of these guys will have good and bad week outliers and probably at least the RBs miss time here and there, but in general this is a three way RBBC.

[Anteaters]

in general this is a crappy RBBC.

t,ftfy

[Anteaters]

Another game and it's clear the issue isn't whether Gainwell will take too many touches away from Sander. The issue is whether the playcalling will realize that as long as they attempt less than 10 carries by RBs (7 today) they will continue to look pitiful and continue to lose.

Today's game against Carolina was P.A.T.H.E.T.I.C. And what's up with 164yds/0TD/1INT by Hurts?

[mild]

Today's game against Carolina was P.A.T.H.E.T.I.C. And what's up with 164yds/0TD/1INT by Hurts?

This aged great!

Honestly, these Eagles are completely confounding, but at least they've got short memory syndrome.

Darnold throwing INT's with the game on the line... positively Jetsy!

[Cameron Giles]

This offense very clearly does not care about the run game.

Or, they dont care for the RBs and as a result don't care about the run game.

[Forza_Azzurri]

My $0.02 ... they run mostly RPOs & Hurts keeps the ball the vast majority of the time. I have no clue if he is making the correct reads, but I am sure that it is impacting the imbalance in the run game. That's why I said earlier in this thread that Hurts is the #1 factor hurting Sanders (no pun intended).

[dondickenson]

My $0.02 ... they run mostly RPOs & Hurts keeps the ball the vast majority of the time. I have no clue if he is making the correct reads, but I am sure that it is impacting the imbalance in the run game. That's why I said earlier in this thread that Hurts is the #1 factor hurting Sanders (no pun intended).

Yep this seems the most right.