Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8624
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby ArrylT » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:11 pm

In my opinion there are 3 separate things.

Rankings
ADP
Trade value

You can rank a player RB X but still not be willing to draft him at ADP Y or acquire him at Price Z.

So based on talent I could have Sanders as say RB20, but where ADP says RB20 should be drafted in a startup or Rookie 3 in a rookie draft, I might still not be willing to take him there, because a different player at a different position is seen as a better fit for my team.

Further if I own the 1.03 and am in a rebuild, I might pass on an 'older' back whose production value might be worth more than the 1.03, because Sanders longer term & potential upside appeals to me than the other players shorter but better production period & known upside. But if I am a contender, and an owner offers the 1.03/Sanders for my player, I'm doing the exact opposite, and holding on to my vet.

Part of the issue for me has always been that ADP is basically where you have to take him FIRST. Now that I am playing in leagues with multiple copies - it is very interesting to see the spread of 2/4/8 copies of players in the drafts adp. But in a single copy league if you want Sanders normally you have to take him in Round X of a startup, or 1.03-1.04 in rookie drafts (league format dependant).

That is why, to me at least, it is important to be sold on a player, when you acquire them / draft them at their price. If you get Sanders with the mindset of well I dont really like him or believe in him - but if he does well I can flip him for more in half a year - then sometimes you get stuck. Owners who tried to flip RoJo have hopefully learned that lesson.

No I am not comparing Sanders to RoJo or anyone. The point is just that you cannot look at a players Ranking or ADP or trade value in isolation and think I can take him and profit if I decide to sell him. Rather it is important to know your league mindset, and think to yourself, worst case am I going to be comfortable owning this player a year from now. Better yet it is always a good idea to think - do I actually need this player for my team.

There is a reason many owners recommend focusing on BPA in drafts. Maybe you feel your need is at RB - but right now projection wise Sanders is only projected to be an RB3-4 in 2019. You may be able to get better production out of other assets at better prices.

So if you feel yeah Sanders may be in an RBBC at the moment and it could be rough - but I believe his talent will shine through at some point, and even in an RBBC he'll become very efficient and eventually reach RB1 production - then taking/acquiring him at his current price in drafts/trades may be the right move for you. But if you have doubts on his talent, or his situation, or your ability to trade him - cost wise it may not be the right thing to do.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

Sriracha
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:36 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:11 pm
So if you feel yeah Sanders may be in an RBBC at the moment and it could be rough - but I believe his talent will shine through at some point, and even in an RBBC he'll become very efficient and eventually reach RB1 production - then taking/acquiring him at his current price in drafts/trades may be the right move for you. But if you have doubts on his talent, or his situation, or your ability to trade him - cost wise it may not be the right thing to do.
That's pretty much where I am with Sanders. Where people see just another meh RB in an underwhelming RB class, I see a borderline elite prospect hidden behind the greatest RB in college football history; with room to grow.

And if you disagree with me on this evaluation, that's completely fine. He's definitely a pretty raw RB who could benefit from a little time to develop (notably his game in the open field where he's strangely less elusive than when he's in a crowd near the LoS). That might have something to do with not being the starter for 3 years, or it might be a fatal flaw in his mental wiring.

At his current price (significantly discounted 1.03-1.05) I think his upside makes him a bargain, and his floor in that offense is higher than people are giving him credit for. If you think he's a mediocre talent, then obviously he's not going to be worth it for you. But the reason I've heard for hating on his ADP up to this point has been focused mainly on the RBBC implemented by PHI the past few years.. which is just flawed logic.

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17049
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:52 pm

Phaded wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:28 pm
PTW32 wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:21 pm
Just curious (because a value your opinion) what price would you touch him for?
It is hard to say because everyone is different with their price tags.

I would have him probably around the RB 20-25 range [so whatever you are willing to pay for that, personally around the same value/price as a guy like Penny (who I think will see a huge spike in value by this time next year and I actually prefer him over Sanders)]. In this class - I can see why he is being valued a little bit higher and I think trading down or out is the best option, but if you have no choice then I can understand the choice.

However, people are getting a bit too bullish on him.
DLF RB Rankings currently have him as their RB14 which is crazy to me.
Ahead of guys like Jacobs, Mack, A Jones, Freeman, Fournette, Hunt and more.

For me - he's not a guy I want as an every week RB, I would want him as my RB3 or FLEX guy; those are the prices I would consider paying for him (and even then, it depends).
Sanders is ahead of Jacobs? I haven't seen that as a trend in rookie drafts. This is news to me. Had no idea he was that high already. Why on earth would people take him ahead of Mack? Wow. Had no idea. I like him, but I guess the consensus is I'm now lower on him than others if that's the case.

Sriracha
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:24 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:52 pm
Phaded wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:28 pm
PTW32 wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:21 pm
Just curious (because a value your opinion) what price would you touch him for?
It is hard to say because everyone is different with their price tags.

I would have him probably around the RB 20-25 range [so whatever you are willing to pay for that, personally around the same value/price as a guy like Penny (who I think will see a huge spike in value by this time next year and I actually prefer him over Sanders)]. In this class - I can see why he is being valued a little bit higher and I think trading down or out is the best option, but if you have no choice then I can understand the choice.

However, people are getting a bit too bullish on him.
DLF RB Rankings currently have him as their RB14 which is crazy to me.
Ahead of guys like Jacobs, Mack, A Jones, Freeman, Fournette, Hunt and more.

For me - he's not a guy I want as an every week RB, I would want him as my RB3 or FLEX guy; those are the prices I would consider paying for him (and even then, it depends).
Sanders is ahead of Jacobs? I haven't seen that as a trend in rookie drafts. This is news to me. Had no idea he was that high already. Why on earth would people take him ahead of Mack? Wow. Had no idea. I like him, but I guess the consensus is I'm now lower on him than others if that's the case.
He's also the RB13 ahead of Mack, Jacobs, Kerryon Johnson, James Conner on playerprofiler's Dynasty rankings.

These aren't seasonal rankings, and is buffered by some people who believe he's the best RB talent in this class by a fair margin. Jacobs, Mack, Conner are obviously ranked higher than him in seasonal leagues.

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17049
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:28 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:24 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:52 pm
Phaded wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:28 pm


It is hard to say because everyone is different with their price tags.

I would have him probably around the RB 20-25 range [so whatever you are willing to pay for that, personally around the same value/price as a guy like Penny (who I think will see a huge spike in value by this time next year and I actually prefer him over Sanders)]. In this class - I can see why he is being valued a little bit higher and I think trading down or out is the best option, but if you have no choice then I can understand the choice.

However, people are getting a bit too bullish on him.
DLF RB Rankings currently have him as their RB14 which is crazy to me.
Ahead of guys like Jacobs, Mack, A Jones, Freeman, Fournette, Hunt and more.

For me - he's not a guy I want as an every week RB, I would want him as my RB3 or FLEX guy; those are the prices I would consider paying for him (and even then, it depends).
Sanders is ahead of Jacobs? I haven't seen that as a trend in rookie drafts. This is news to me. Had no idea he was that high already. Why on earth would people take him ahead of Mack? Wow. Had no idea. I like him, but I guess the consensus is I'm now lower on him than others if that's the case.
He's also the RB13 ahead of Mack, Jacobs, Kerryon Johnson, James Conner on playerprofiler's Dynasty rankings.

These aren't seasonal rankings, and is buffered by some people who believe he's the best RB talent in this class by a fair margin. Jacobs, Mack, Conner are obviously ranked higher than him in seasonal leagues.

Yeah, I can't get on board with this. I like him, but that's a bit much for me. I find Matt Kelley entertaining, but I find his rankings and takes too metric centric, as he admits that he basically doesn't even really watch football, and tends to diminish everything around the game other that metrics, which are only a piece of the puzzle.

Sriracha
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Sriracha » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:40 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:28 pm

Yeah, I can't get on board with this. I like him, but that's a bit much for me. I find Matt Kelley entertaining, but I find his rankings and takes too metric centric, as he admits that he basically doesn't even really watch football, and tends to diminish everything around the game other that metrics, which are only a piece of the puzzle.
Yea, you gotta take everything he says with a grain of salt. He also has a tendency to take the contrarian point of view 9/10 times.

He's far from the only person that has Sanders rated in this area in Dynasty, though. It really depends on how you project his talent moving forward in the NFL. If he can seize this backfield, how much is a 3 down back on the PHI offense going to be worth? I'm thinking... a lot

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17049
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:10 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:40 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:28 pm

Yeah, I can't get on board with this. I like him, but that's a bit much for me. I find Matt Kelley entertaining, but I find his rankings and takes too metric centric, as he admits that he basically doesn't even really watch football, and tends to diminish everything around the game other that metrics, which are only a piece of the puzzle.
Yea, you gotta take everything he says with a grain of salt. He also has a tendency to take the contrarian point of view 9/10 times.

He's far from the only person that has Sanders rated in this area in Dynasty, though. It really depends on how you project his talent moving forward in the NFL. If he can seize this backfield, how much is a 3 down back on the PHI offense going to be worth? I'm thinking... a lot
Agreed on just about everything you say here.

User avatar
joeylitz
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:52 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby joeylitz » Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:44 pm

FantasyDumDum wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:55 pm
There is ZERO evidence for the completely fabricated 60-70% of work in Philly. It is very, very, very unlikely that that happens. All evidence points towards the highest end of the spectrum for Sanders, if EVERYTHING goes his way, to squeak above 30%.

It is a mountain of facts vs some unlikely made up dream scenario at this point.

No intelligent person would invest much in Sanders in fantasy at this point, given the facts. If you are honest that much is clear and indisputable.
Lol
I’m still reading all the posts but I can’t wait to go back after the season is over and see how this plays out. Hopefully everyone status healthy.
Dumdum - your emotion has gotten the better of you
2016 Frozen Tundra Dynasty League Champions
12 Team Dynasty, PPR, 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1FLEX-1PK-1DST

QB: Brees. Wentz, Winston, Rudolph
RB: L. Bell, J. Conner, Michel. McKinnon, L. Miller, Montgomery, T. Riddick, Prosise, J. Conner,
WR: A. Robinson, Woods, M. Jones, Godwin, Boyd, Crabtree, Moncrief, Gabriel, C. Henderson, J. Washington, J. Moore
TE: D. Walker. Hooper, I. Thomas
K: Elliott
DST: DEN. KC

Draft:
1.08: Hockenson
2.08: JAWS
3.08:

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8624
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:21 pm

The latest DLF article found here:

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/ ... kie-draft/

Suggests that in a combined 2019/2020 rookie draft Sanders would be the consensus 1.08
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
Goirish374
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1391
Joined: Sun Aug 04, 2013 7:31 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Goirish374 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:18 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:36 pm
if you disagree with me on this evaluation, that's completely fine.
I don’t disagree with you on your Sanders take but...

Barkley as
IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:36 pm
...the greatest RB in college football history...
Come on, now.
Dynasty League Football Premium League Almanac:
2019 Champ: me!
2018 Champ: Qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj
2017 Champ: Irishdoom
2016 Champ: DDT(wakelawyer)
2015 Champ: BigChiefBC

User avatar
dlf_mikeh
Administrator
Posts: 5721
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby dlf_mikeh » Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:20 am

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:21 pm
The latest DLF article found here:

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/ ... kie-draft/

Suggests that in a combined 2019/2020 rookie draft Sanders would be the consensus 1.08
Consensus among random voters, that is.

Not THIS guy.

Not too long ago, everyone thought Alex Collins was going to be THE guy in next years NFL draft. Then he fell to the 7th round, was cut, sparked for a few weeks in Baltimore, and then disappeared. The people who liked him are the same people who voted in the polls you posted.

Sanders is also currently in a time share at best in Philly. Had he gone to Kansas City, he'd be ranked a hell of a lot higher than 1.08, and yet talent didn't change, only situation.

That ranking system isn't meant to be serious. It's just something fun to do to provoke discussion.
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

User avatar
Blueboy
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1789
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:27 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Blueboy » Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:36 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:20 am
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:21 pm
The latest DLF article found here:

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/ ... kie-draft/

Suggests that in a combined 2019/2020 rookie draft Sanders would be the consensus 1.08
Consensus among random voters, that is.

Not THIS guy.

Not too long ago, everyone thought Alex Collins was going to be THE guy in next years NFL draft. Then he fell to the 7th round, was cut, sparked for a few weeks in Baltimore, and then disappeared. The people who liked him are the same people who voted in the polls you posted.

Sanders is also currently in a time share at best in Philly. Had he gone to Kansas City, he'd be ranked a hell of a lot higher than 1.08, and yet talent didn't change, only situation.

That ranking system isn't meant to be serious. It's just something fun to do to provoke discussion.
How are you feeling about Sanders in comparison to the 2020 class, if not around the 1.08 range? Or I guess more specifically, what would you be willing to give up in 2020 capital for him? That's where I've struggled to pin down his value.

In my leagues his asking price seems to be two random 2020 1sts. This is (imo) a steep price to pay as a contender, since his rookie season he may need time to (hopefully) steal the lead role, and as a rebuilder since 2020 draft capital is valuable and difficult to come by.

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill

jenkins.math
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1337
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby jenkins.math » Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:12 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:20 am
ArrylT wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:21 pm
The latest DLF article found here:

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/ ... kie-draft/

Suggests that in a combined 2019/2020 rookie draft Sanders would be the consensus 1.08
Consensus among random voters, that is.

Not THIS guy.

Not too long ago, everyone thought Alex Collins was going to be THE guy in next years NFL draft. Then he fell to the 7th round, was cut, sparked for a few weeks in Baltimore, and then disappeared. The people who liked him are the same people who voted in the polls you posted.

Sanders is also currently in a time share at best in Philly. Had he gone to Kansas City, he'd be ranked a hell of a lot higher than 1.08, and yet talent didn't change, only situation.

That ranking system isn't meant to be serious. It's just something fun to do to provoke discussion.
But he didn't. We see guys all the time thrive/not thrive due to situation in football. What if Mariota and Mahomes switched places? Do you think Mahomes is throwing 50 TDs in that garbage offense in TN? I bet Mariota throws more TDs in KC last season than he did on his current team also. Did Gurley suddenly find all this extra talent after Jeff Fisher left? The problem is that Pederson and company probably aren't going anywhere the next 4 years, and if they are true to their word and stick to a RBBC approach, that is going to hurt Sanders value (and production if he doesn't get the volume) no matter his perceived talent.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8624
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:22 pm

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... -out-a-lot

Sanders expects to be part of an RBBC.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

Ice
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2900
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Why is the majority so high on Miles Sanders???

Postby Ice » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:34 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:22 pm
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... -out-a-lot

Sanders expects to be part of an RBBC.
Stacked with Talent? You buying that?

If that was actually the case drafting him with that pick in this draft doesn’t make much sense.
The clock is running and there are no timeouts


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bjd5211, blemly and 5 guests

Monkey Knife Fight