Josh Jacobs Value - Poll

[honcho55]

I worry a little about AB diva-ing, Gruden yelling Carr’s face off, and leaning on a rookie back to come in and bellcow, a little. It could work out wonderfully, but I dunno.

I voted top 15 because what Cult says is pretty much spot on imo (can’t be bothered to quote it, top of page 2)

Bottom line if I had 1.01 anywhere I’d trade down, and be fine passing on him, or nabbing him a little later.

[Cult of Dionysus]

#8 in PPR: 175 rushes 885 yds 10 TDs / 50 catches 490 yds 4 TDs
#14 in PPR: 120 rushes 535 yds 4 TDs / 53 catches 477 yds 5 TDs

I think Jacobs will get the ball 200 to 250 times, easily. He'll average 4.0 ypc, easily. And I suspect he will get 3 to 4 catches as well per game. I don't see how he will be less than #12, barring injury. This dude is set up for a low-end RB1 season.

BTW, the stats above were for Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake. Neither set the world on fire with their stats. Really only the top 5 RBs in 2018 had elite stats. 6 to 12 were good, but not great. Any competent RB given a full workload should score top 12.

Happy to quote myself.

[trc]

#8 in PPR: 175 rushes 885 yds 10 TDs / 50 catches 490 yds 4 TDs
#14 in PPR: 120 rushes 535 yds 4 TDs / 53 catches 477 yds 5 TDs

I think Jacobs will get the ball 200 to 250 times, easily. He'll average 4.0 ypc, easily. And I suspect he will get 3 to 4 catches as well per game. I don't see how he will be less than #12, barring injury. This dude is set up for a low-end RB1 season.

BTW, the stats above were for Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake. Neither set the world on fire with their stats. Really only the top 5 RBs in 2018 had elite stats. 6 to 12 were good, but not great. Any competent RB given a full workload should score top 12.

Happy to quote myself.

Gordon did that in 12 games...
In my leagues that is +21 points per game (ranked #2 behind Gurley), and for me that is setting the world on fire with stats.

[ericanadian]

If Gruden can get the offense going, Jacobs can be valuable on sheer volume. Wheatley, Alstott & Graham are good examples of this. That said, longevity isn’t exactly a strong suit in this role. Maybe Jacobs is different, but Wheatley was a first rounder and Alstott was a second, and the success rate of Alabama RBs doesn’t generate a lot of confidence. I’d put him in the top 20 because even a couple seasons of production has value, but I’m not going much beyond that.

[hoos89]

Oh, he'll be a top 10 rookie pick this year. And if I had a top 10 rookie pick then it would be something that I would gladly trade down from before selecting Jacobs.

Either that, or take Jacobs and then sell high later in the season.

Would you sell high now?

[bjd5211]

I originally voted top 15, he's easily top 10 now. I would rank him 7th overall to be specific

1 Saquon
2 CMC
3 Zeke
4 Kamara
5 Chubb
6 Dalvin
7 Jacobs

[Dibbles]

I also voted top 15, easily top 10 IMO at this time.

[blemly]

Would you rather have Jacobs than:
KJ? Guice? Michel?

Jacobs >> KJ
Guice > Jacobs
Jacobs > Michel

Disagree with Jacobs over Michel, but I am fine with the rest.

Who doesn't love to eat a little crow? I overestimated Michel's value to his team and, quite honestly, his ability as well. He looks slow out there.

As for Jacobs, I wish he was a little quicker/faster, but the kid just does everything well. Good vision, good size, good hands (wish they would utilize them a bit more), and good ball security. If I am being honest in my value reassessment of Jacobs right now, I think I would have to have RBs ranked as follows:

1. CMC
2. Barkley
3. Kamara
4. Zeke
5. Cook
6. Chubb
T7. Jacobs/Fournette/Mack/Gurley

So yea, I voted T20 preseason but I think for dynasty he has to be firmly entrenched in almost everyone's T10 now. I am still uncertain whether he offers recurring T5 upside, but he's getting the volume you hoped he would and producing above what was expected to boot.

[hoos89]

Not sure I'd put Fournette, Mack or Gurley that high at this point due to injury concerns with all 3. Also I think the only thing standing between Jacobs and T5 upside is increased usage in the passing game...would raise his weekly ceiling and keep him involved when the Raiders are down significantly. I think Jacobs has the receiving chops to get more involved, so it's not unrealistic.

Also I think Michel has been better in terms of "doing what the Patriots want of him" than as a fantasy RB.

[Patsfan86]

Definitely top 6. How did this community miss on him like this? I know he was going 1.01 in many drafts so its hard for me to call that a miss but he wasnt the consensus 1.01 when he should have been, and many were down on him. Sometimes i really think this community overvalues athleticism and flash (aka Miles Sanders) too much and that causes us to totally look past what NFL teams actually look for like, can you block and do you do all the little things well? Those things translate to on the field opportunities which can translate to more fantasy points. Jacobs was also a real first round NFL pick with loads of opportunity. How many in this community fell in love with Miles Sanders over him ill never understand. And im not saying Miles Sanders is a bad player at all, just using him as an example.

[bjd5211]

I think he was pretty close to consensus 1.01 in non SF/2QB. He was the 1st pick (or 1st non QB) in all 12 of my leagues and all of the drafts my friends had in leagues I'm not in. I think the doubt was almost completely due to his limited opportunities in college and lack of recognition leading up to the draft. I don't remember his name being mentioned at all on this forum until around College playoff time or so, he certainly wasn't in 1.01 conversation a year ago today.

[hoos89]

Definitely top 6. How did this community miss on him like this? I know he was going 1.01 in many drafts so its hard for me to call that a miss but he wasnt the consensus 1.01 when he should have been, and many were down on him. Sometimes i really think this community overvalues athleticism and flash (aka Miles Sanders) too much and that causes us to totally look past what NFL teams actually look for like, can you block and do you do all the little things well? Those things translate to on the field opportunities which can translate to more fantasy points. Jacobs was also a real first round NFL pick with loads of opportunity. How many in this community fell in love with Miles Sanders over him ill never understand. And im not saying Miles Sanders is a bad player at all, just using him as an example.

People still doubt him. I saw someone today say they'd take at least 6 RBs/WRs in 2020 over him. When I pointed out that he's on pace for over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and double digit TDs they said "exactly, he can't do much better than that".

That said...I'm not sure how you get him to top 6. That would require you to put him ahead of one of Barkley, CMC, Kamara, Zeke, Cook or Chubb. I don't think he's there yet.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Definitely top 6. How did this community miss on him like this? I know he was going 1.01 in many drafts so its hard for me to call that a miss but he wasnt the consensus 1.01 when he should have been, and many were down on him. Sometimes i really think this community overvalues athleticism and flash (aka Miles Sanders) too much and that causes us to totally look past what NFL teams actually look for like, can you block and do you do all the little things well? Those things translate to on the field opportunities which can translate to more fantasy points. Jacobs was also a real first round NFL pick with loads of opportunity. How many in this community fell in love with Miles Sanders over him ill never understand. And im not saying Miles Sanders is a bad player at all, just using him as an example.

People still doubt him. I saw someone today say they'd take at least 6 RBs/WRs in 2020 over him. When I pointed out that he's on pace for over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and double digit TDs they said "exactly, he can't do much better than that".

That said...I'm not sure how you get him to top 6. That would require you to put him ahead of one of Barkley, CMC, Kamara, Zeke, Cook or Chubb. I don't think he's there yet.

I think he’s in the conversation with Cook & Chubb. The arrow is pointing up for the Raiders offense. They add a WR (or two) and they’ll be very explosive.

[rubber_duck]

Oh, he'll be a top 10 rookie pick this year. And if I had a top 10 rookie pick then it would be something that I would gladly trade down from before selecting Jacobs.

Either that, or take Jacobs and then sell high later in the season.

Would you sell high now?

Absolutely! This is a perfect time to sell.

If I owned him anywhere, I’d be making sick trade offers right now. It reminds me of when I sold Larry Johnson the year after he broke out ... following Priest Holmes’ retirement. What a haul he brought!

[hoos89]

The year after Larry Johnson broke out he had 2,200 scrimmage yards, 19 TDs and 375 total fantasy points. I mean sure he fell off after that, but that trade easily could have cost you a championship depending on what the haul was.

Also, I just don't get the sense that people are ready to make a huge offer for Jacobs. Plus it's weird that you seem to still be doubting Jacobs? He's looked incredible.