Are 2019 picks valued lower post draft?

[Huh]

They should be ranked lower. The wrs are mostly fine but all but a couple rbs so far have landed in bad spots. This class was already bad and overhyped and the draft hasn’t helped one bit.

[M-Dub]

Fantasy community: "Man I really hope a couple of SF, Indy, Seattle, Philly, or Arizona draft 2nd round WRs, then pick values will really skyrocket"

<literally all of those teams draft a WR in the 2nd round>

Fantasy community: "Ugh what is with all of these crap landing spots? These picks are worth squat now".

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

I think you’re either giving the NFL brass waaaaay too much credit or not giving the dynasty community enough credit. Just because those guys do this for a living doesn’t automatically make them better than us. It doesn’t really matter how much time they spend doing it if they’re not looking at the right indicators of success. Many of these idiots have the jobs they have because of nepotism and/or the good ol’ boy network. We also have the luxury of only really focusing on four positions (other than those weirdos who play IDP), so I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that really dedicated, passionate dynasty owners are as good, if not better, at evaluating talent (at least at QB/RB/WR/TE) than a lot of owners, GMs and coaches. Call me delusional, but I’ll bet there are a few regular posters on these boards who could do a better job than some of the dinosaurs in NFL front offices. Hell, we could probably pick a random DLF poster out of a hat and I’ll bet they could do a better job than Dave f—ing Gettleman.

[jman3134]

To be fair, if we look at who is being selected, wide receivers have gone throughout, just not the ones we expected. I think it is fair to say there were probably flags on Kelvin Harmon, Emmanuel Hall, and Preston Williams vs. the NFL seriously undervaluing the receivers in this class. They don't see obvious star potential, but most of the big names went in the first 2-3 rounds. I think it is time to reevaluate guys like Renfrow, Darius Slayton, D Johnson.

I think the RBs in this class are not viewed as standout players and are viewed as expendable. Guys like Anderson have injury concerns attached.

I think what this will mean is that lower division kids will get more of a shot in training camp because they will have the same invested draft capital as the Trayveon Williams'.

[FantasyDumDum]

Fantasy community: "Man I really hope a couple of SF, Indy, Seattle, Philly, or Arizona draft 2nd round WRs, then pick values will really skyrocket"

<literally all of those teams draft a WR in the 2nd round>

Fantasy community: "Ugh what is with all of these crap landing spots? These picks are worth squat now".

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

I think you’re either giving the NFL brass waaaaay too much credit or not giving the dynasty community enough credit. Just because those guys do this for a living doesn’t automatically make them better than us. It doesn’t really matter how much time they spend doing it if they’re not looking at the right indicators of success. Many of these idiots have the jobs they have because of nepotism and/or the good ol’ boy network. We also have the luxury of only really focusing on four positions (other than those weirdos who play IDP), so I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that really dedicated, passionate dynasty owners are as good, if not better, at evaluating talent (at least at QB/RB/WR/TE) than a lot of owners, GMs and coaches. Call me delusional, but I’ll bet there are a few regular posters on these boards who could do a better job than some of the dinosaurs in NFL front offices. Hell, we could probably pick a random DLF poster out of a hat and I’ll bet they could do a better job than Dave f—ing Gettleman.

Very true. It’s a natural, human feeling to want to appeal to authority as experts. But just a quick glance back at history shows us the incredible ineptitude of at least half of NFL coaches scouts and FOs or more at any given time in the past. That same proportion almost certainly exists today. This happens in all fields. Another easy example is celebrities - they are worshipped by the masses now, but look back 10, 20, 30 years and 90%+ of those celebrities that were worshipped as supreme beings of talent and genius are considered utter jokes to us now in hindsight.

[jman3134]

Not sure what celebrities you are referring to? I wouldn't say film has gotten better over time or refined tastes in just about anything.

[Vcize]

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

I think you’re either giving the NFL brass waaaaay too much credit or not giving the dynasty community enough credit. Just because those guys do this for a living doesn’t automatically make them better than us. It doesn’t really matter how much time they spend doing it if they’re not looking at the right indicators of success. Many of these idiots have the jobs they have because of nepotism and/or the good ol’ boy network. We also have the luxury of only really focusing on four positions (other than those weirdos who play IDP), so I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that really dedicated, passionate dynasty owners are as good, if not better, at evaluating talent (at least at QB/RB/WR/TE) than a lot of owners, GMs and coaches. Call me delusional, but I’ll bet there are a few regular posters on these boards who could do a better job than some of the dinosaurs in NFL front offices. Hell, we could probably pick a random DLF poster out of a hat and I’ll bet they could do a better job than Dave f—ing Gettleman.

Very true. It’s a natural, human feeling to want to appeal to authority as experts. But just a quick glance back at history shows us the incredible ineptitude of at least half of NFL coaches scouts and FOs or more at any given time in the past. That same proportion almost certainly exists today. This happens in all fields. Another easy example is celebrities - they are worshipped by the masses now, but look back 10, 20, 30 years and 90%+ of those celebrities that were worshipped as supreme beings of talent and genius are considered utter jokes to us now in hindsight.

There is some truth to what you're saying, but it is important to remember that the #1 predictor of prospect success is still far and away draft capital, so as a whole these guys must be doing something generally right.

It's also worth noting that the majority of the time there has been a huge disparity between the dynasty community and the NFL, the NFL has been right. Jonathan Dwyer, Lache Seastrunk, and ESB aren't exactly hogging pro bowl roster spots right now.

[jman3134]

^ Yeah, but that is self fulfilling. If you invest draft capital, you give them more opportunities for live game action and more chances to make a roster. So when they succeed, they were the ones in position to succeed in the first place.

[Patsfan86]

Fantasy community: "Man I really hope a couple of SF, Indy, Seattle, Philly, or Arizona draft 2nd round WRs, then pick values will really skyrocket"

<literally all of those teams draft a WR in the 2nd round>

Fantasy community: "Ugh what is with all of these crap landing spots? These picks are worth squat now".

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

I think you’re either giving the NFL brass waaaaay too much credit or not giving the dynasty community enough credit. Just because those guys do this for a living doesn’t automatically make them better than us. It doesn’t really matter how much time they spend doing it if they’re not looking at the right indicators of success. Many of these idiots have the jobs they have because of nepotism and/or the good ol’ boy network. We also have the luxury of only really focusing on four positions (other than those weirdos who play IDP), so I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that really dedicated, passionate dynasty owners are as good, if not better, at evaluating talent (at least at QB/RB/WR/TE) than a lot of owners, GMs and coaches. Call me delusional, but I’ll bet there are a few regular posters on these boards who could do a better job than some of the dinosaurs in NFL front offices. Hell, we could probably pick a random DLF poster out of a hat and I’ll bet they could do a better job than Dave f—ing Gettleman.

Yes there are definitely some GMs that suck, but overall they do know more about prospecting talent than we do as a community, thats why they are in those jobs. Sure there is a good ol boy network as well. There are definitely some opinions i respect on these boards, dont get me wrong, but in general the NFL guys know more than we do. Ill always use Michael Thomas as an example, yes its one example but its my preferred example, the fantasy community was down on him, the NFL community was not, he went in the 2nd round. He proved many in the fantasy community wrong. I understand that there are some god awful GMs and scouts out there but they are right at a higher percentage than the fantasy community is right. And if Mecole Hardman is to them a better player than some of the guys who went after him than ill lean with them over us.

[Patsfan86]

As an example of me respecting opinions around here but also respecting NFL Scouts, i am stuck between Sanders and Harry, if i have that opportunity. These boards and the artist formerly known as Meurah got me interested in Sanders and i really like him, like his tape and really loved how he seized the one opportunity given to him. However i also did my research on Harry and i liked him BEFORE he went to my favorite team, love the production and young breakout age. So who do i trust here? A DLFers opinion i respect, who i know also did some football related stuff as a job so i trust his opinion or Bill Belichick?

[trc]

^ Yeah, but that is self fulfilling. If you invest draft capital, you give them more opportunities for live game action and more chances to make a roster. So when they succeed, they were the ones in position to succeed in the first place.

Without talent and the right attitude it really doesn't matter that you are given more opportunities.

[Vcize]

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

I think you’re either giving the NFL brass waaaaay too much credit or not giving the dynasty community enough credit. Just because those guys do this for a living doesn’t automatically make them better than us. It doesn’t really matter how much time they spend doing it if they’re not looking at the right indicators of success. Many of these idiots have the jobs they have because of nepotism and/or the good ol’ boy network. We also have the luxury of only really focusing on four positions (other than those weirdos who play IDP), so I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that really dedicated, passionate dynasty owners are as good, if not better, at evaluating talent (at least at QB/RB/WR/TE) than a lot of owners, GMs and coaches. Call me delusional, but I’ll bet there are a few regular posters on these boards who could do a better job than some of the dinosaurs in NFL front offices. Hell, we could probably pick a random DLF poster out of a hat and I’ll bet they could do a better job than Dave f—ing Gettleman.

Yes there are definitely some GMs that suck, but overall they do know more about prospecting talent than we do as a community, thats why they are in those jobs. Sure there is a good ol boy network as well. There are definitely some opinions i respect on these boards, dont get me wrong, but in general the NFL guys know more than we do. Ill always use Michael Thomas as an example, yes its one example but its my preferred example, the fantasy community was down on him, the NFL community was not, he went in the 2nd round. He proved many in the fantasy community wrong. I understand that there are some god awful GMs and scouts out there but they are right at a higher percentage than the fantasy community is right. And if Mecole Hardman is to them a better player than some of the guys who went after him than ill lean with them over us.

It does seem that when the dynasty and nfl communties disagree it is typically the NFL that ends up being right. I mentioned in another thread the dynasty community being much higher than the NFL on guys like Seastrunk and Dwyer and those guys fading into nothingness.

The same seems to be true the other way as well. You mentioned Michael Thomas who FFers tended to dislike as a prospect but ended up going early in the NFL draft. The same happened with Will Fuller. If I recall despite going 21st overall in the NFL draft as the 2nd WR off the board he was a borderline 2nd round rookie pick in FF drafts and the 8th WR taken, behind Leonte Carroo (another guy the FF community was much higher on than the NFL that the NFL ended up being correct about).

[millworkguy]

I seem to remember people last year asking why san fran drafted Pettis, before guice kirk Miller Gallup. He was the 4th wr off the board, and they moved up to do it

He seems to be a darling this off season, teams do research on many aspects of a player, not just their stats and tape. The top of my draft board is pretty much the same, its spots 5-15 that have drastically changed

[Cameron Giles]

Fantasy community: "Man I really hope a couple of SF, KC, Indy, Seattle, Philly, or Arizona draft 2nd round WRs, then pick values will really skyrocket"

<literally all of those teams draft a WR in the 2nd round>

Fantasy community: "Ugh what is with all of these crap landing spots? These picks are worth squat now".

Because most of the WR's drafted to those spots aren't good. Campbell is a raw gimmick player, who feasted on targets behind or at the LOS. Metcalf is a one-trick pony who I think lacks certain traits to develop as an overall WR, Hardman didn't have meaningful volume in college and I'm just not a fan of Arcega-Whiteside outside of contested catches.

I think Samuel has the best combination of skill and situation of the teams you listed. Isabella isn't far off either. But overall, I'd hardly consider most of those outcomes as great.

The key thing to remember is that before the draft a lot of people here were high on players like A.J. Brown, Hakeem Butler, and Kelvin Harmon. Brown went to a landing spot that most people hate, and Butler and Harmon were not valued like the dynasty community hoped. So, that hurt some of the optimism too.

[Portsmouth Spartans]

I’m having trouble trouble selling and buying this year’s draft..... I think it has to do with rankings being all over the board. After Harry and Jacobs, I could see picks 3-10 going a lot of different ways. I’m assuming more action will happen during the draft as owners wait to see who is there.

[stoneghost28]

Fantasy community: "Man I really hope a couple of SF, Indy, Seattle, Philly, or Arizona draft 2nd round WRs, then pick values will really skyrocket"

<literally all of those teams draft a WR in the 2nd round>

Fantasy community: "Ugh what is with all of these crap landing spots? These picks are worth squat now".

Spot on, its because the guys we expected to go to these spots didnt go. ATTENTION ALL FANTASY PLAYERS: We dont know anything about this sport, we pretend we do and thats whats fun but it is totally ok for us to be so off on guys the NFL love or hate. They do this for a living we do this as fun. In the end we are all a bunch of idiots who argue about something we know jack squat about, and i wouldnt have it any other way. Cant wait for Mecole Hardman and Deebo Samuel to be HOFers one day and some in the community say "Ehhhh he was just lucky he went to a good spot" while forgetting they hated the spot when he went there

Classic appeal to authority argument. It's not so much that I think I know anything about this as much as it's I know NFL guys don't know what the hell they're doing. It's not like other leagues where a 3 or 4 loss run isn't catastrophic. In the NFL, if you screw things up for a couple of weeks, a season's over. I definitely think this contributes to the dinosaur thinking and resistance to change so entrenched all over the place. There's been tremendous resistance to analytics for decades, tremendous resistance to advantages gained in a wide and disparate variety of area's. This is a league where Bruce Allen is still employed, where the guy that torpedoed Arizona's entire 2018 offseason was kept on while the coach was ejected, a league where Gettleman gets multiple jobs because he knows the right people after blowing up roster after roster, this is a league where Tampa Bay accidentally loses Compensatory picks for brain dead idiocy. You've got creative and innovative F.O.'s and HC's here and there, but by and large there is a huge proportion of the league employed because of contacts rather than talent.

Look at 2017, the NFL loved loved loved Mike Wlliams, and John Ross, the analytics community loved Chris Godwin and Juju, who was right? In 2018 they were generally on the same page, but there were still guys like Trequan Smith, Keke Coutee, Christian Kirk, Trey Quinn, and Daesean Hamilton liked a good deal more in analytics and fantasy quarters than in NFL quarters and so far the early returns support the analytics and fantasy community and indict the NFL (at least in terms of their valuations).

Look at 2014, where the analytics crew were hot on the trail of guys like Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, the healthy version of Jordan Matthews while the NFL was less enamoured, they did miss on OBJ, while the NFL sniffed him out which is a HUGE hit, but they also avoided misses like Kelvin Benjamin, Cody Latimer etc.

Looking at RB and you have prized guys like Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack taken on day 3 while known non-entities like Wayne Gallman, Joe Williams, and Jamaal Williams were taken ahead of them in '17, in '18 Chubb, and Kerryon were much higher on boards while Ronald Jones was scoffed at (ditto Guice).

Looking at TE, you had mad love for guys like Everett, Njoku, Howard on the same page with NFL F.O.'s but then a much loved guy like Kittle is a forgotten 5th rounder while the NFL drafts slugs like Michael Roberts and a broken down version of Jake Butt ahead of him AND waits till the 5th to take the 3rd most productive pass catching TE in the league in only his 2nd season.

TE takes a while, so you never know, but we can see that guys like Ian Thomas, Chris Herndon, and Dallas Goedert were viewed by the analytics community as significantly better prospects than overage idiotic picks like Hayden Hurst taken anywhere from 15 to 20 to 100 picks early (if he were to take the typical 3 years to develop, he'd be 27, a full 3 years older than his superior competition in the '18 class). How in the world Hurst was taken so much ahead of Mark Andrews remains a source of amusement and confusion.

Check out SI's October 2017 breakdown of the QB Prospects from NFL Scouts on an Oscars like point scale (rated 1-5 w/corresponding points based on the position between 1-5). What did the scouts think?

1.Darnold: 35 points
2. Rosen : 34 points
3. Allen: 23 points
4. Falk: 10 Points
5. Rudolph: 7 Points
6. Mayfield: 6 Points
7. Jackson: 5 Points

Now this is just flat out laughable, generally the analytics community had this: #1 Mayfield in a landslide, followed by a minor tier drop and then some ordering of Rosen, Darnold, and either Jackson or Allen. Here the scouts have Mayfield WAY WAY down their boards. It's just absurd.

I've seen more than enough in thirty years of watching the draft to be totally convinced that the majority of NFL F.O.'s flat out aren't very good at this. It doesn't mean we're better, it sure as hell doesn't mean random joe schmoe football fan in the street is better, but it does suggest that after decades and decades of use of the most basic things like athletic testing, the NFL still isn't on the vanguard of much of anything. I still see sharper thinking, better evaluation skills of playmaking talent at rotoviz, or even by guys people hate like Matt Kelley, or by really talented people like Rich Hribar than I do by 90% of NFL F.O.'s. Yes there are some that are getting it, but most are still stuck in mediocrity or much much worse (see the Raiders, and Giants on Day 1 for instance).

The only reason I pay any attention to the draft itself is because Draft Capital does impact playing time, and opportunity for players, if you are a day 3 pick or UDFA you just aren't going to have anything remotely like the same leeway for mistakes, errors, or even injury as you would if you were a day 1 or day 2 pick, as a result, idiotic picks may still steal a starting job or a roster spot over a better player. It happens all the time. That being said, generally I'm betting on talent, especially when there's at least a reasonably decent opportunity in play, and I trust the analytics community about 1000x more than I do the average run of the mill NFL F.O.'s.