RB Draft Capital 2013-2018

[FantasyDumDum]

Inspired by another post, just did some digging, here is what I found....



Here are the last 6 drafts and where the RBs went. Anybody recognize any patterns?



2018
1- 3 (Barkley, Penny, Michel)
2- 4 (Chubb, Jones II, Kerryon Johnson, Guice)
3- 1 (Royce Freeman)
4- 5 (Hines, Walton, Ito Smith, Ballage)
5- 1 (Wilkins)
6- 3 (Kelly, Scott, Cannon)
7- 3 (David Williams, Scarborough, Justin Jackson)
UDFA- 4 (Lindsay, Edwards, Warren III, Adams)

2017
1- 2 (Fournette, McCaffery)
2- 2 (Cook, Mixon)
3- 4 (Kamara, Hunt, Foreman, Conner)
4- 7 (Perine, Cohen, Joe Williams, Pumphrey, Jamaal Williams, Gallman, Mack)
5- 4 (Brian Hill, McNichols, Logan, Aaron Jones)
6- 2 (McGuire, De’Angelo Henderson)
7- 5 (Mayes, Muhammad, Hood, Carson, Dayes)
UDFA- 3 (Ekeler, Clement, Breida)

2016
1- 1 (Elliott)
2- 1 (Henry)
3- 2 (Drake, Prosise)
4- 3 (Ervin, Dixon, Booker)
5- 6 (Washington, Perkins, Howard, Smallwood, Jonathan Williams, Collins)
6- 2 (Kelvin Taylor, Darius Jackson)
7- 4 (Washington, Lasco, Marshall, Brooks)
UDFA- 3 (Richard, Barber, Kelley)

2015
1- 2 (Gurley, Gordon)
2- 2 (Yeldon, Abdullah)
3- 4 (Coleman, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Matt Jones)
4- 3 (Langford, Buck Allen, Mike Davis)
5- 4 (Cobb, Ajayi, Karlos Williams, Artis-Payne)
6- 1 (Josh Robinson)
7- 2 (Murphy, Hilliard)
UDFA- 3 (Zenner, Grant, Rawls)

2014
1- 0
2- 3 (Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Hyde)
3- 5 (Sims, Mason, West, McKinnon, Archer)
4- 6 (Devonta Freeman, Andre Williams, Carey, De’Anthony Thomas, White, Taliaferro)
5- 0
6- 4 (Blue, Seastrunk, Grice, Gaffney)
7- 2 (Storm Johnson, Small)
UDFA- 3 (Damien Williams, Crowell, Darkwa)

2013
1- 0
2- 6 (Bernard, Bell, Jamie Collins, Ball, Lacy, Michael)
3- 1 (Knile Davis)
4- 2 (Franklin, Lattimore)
5- 6 (Denard Robinson, Taylor, Randle, Chris Thompson, Stacy, Gillislee)
6- 7 (Latavius Murray, Barber, Ellington, Mike James, Burkhead, Ware, Riddick)
7- 3 (Jamison, Kerwyn Williams, Cox)
UDFA- 1 (CJ Anderson)



I think one thing is it is safe to say that draft capital definitely matters.

Out of 8 RBs drafted in round 1, 7 have been and remain today elite fantasy RBs, with Penny on the rise. But let’s just say that that is roughly a 90% hit rate for long term RB1 type success in fantasy. Draft Rd 1 RBs!

Out of the 43 RBs drafted in rounds 1-3, these are the 21 that have given you solid starting fantasy impact(and a few more look poised to breakout in Penny, Guice, McKinnon, Yeldon, etc): Barkley, Michel, Chubb, KJ, Fournette, McCaffery, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Hunt, Conner, Elliott, Henry, Drake, Gurley, Gordon, Coleman, DJ, Hyde, Bell, Lacy. That is roughly 50% of round 1-3 picks working out as fantasy starters.

If you take away round 1 RBs and just focus on round 2-3 RBs, they still hit at a pretty good rate of 14/35, or 40%. Also Draft round 2-3 guys, but expect more than half of them to be whiffs.

Out of the 82 RBs drafted in round 4 or later in the last 6 years, these are the only 9 that have given you even one year of really startable fantasy impact: Cohen, Mack, A Jones, Carson, Howard, Ajayi, D Freeman, J White, Ware. And by far the best of this group, D Freeman, was 3 picks away from being in the 3rd round! That is roughly 10% of round 4-7 picks working out as fantasy starters. Don’t waste your time on these guys they are worse than dice rolls.

Out of the many UDFAs in the last 6 years, you could have found: Lindsay, Breida, D Williams, CJ Anderson, I guess you could count Ekeler, Edwards, but they aren’t much of anything startable. Probably less than 10% but not by much. Same as round 4-7 RBs, don’t waste your time.


So clearly, after round 3, it is all a total crapshoot.

What else do y’all see?

[Phaded]

Nice post.
And I agree; there is clear statistical backing that has been documented in the past about the drop off after day 2.

[MEuRaH]

You could pair this with the RBs who were projected to go in the 1st round vs taken in the 1st round. I believe that it's currently a 100% hit rate since TRich.

Penny was a shockingly weird selection. Zone runner taken by a team with a power offense? ok good luck with that.

[FantasyDumDum]

What are the projections by round for RBs this year?

[Huh]

What are the projections by round for RBs this year?

Jacobs late first early second. Sanders mid second. Everybody else in the crapshoot range.

[FantasyDumDum]

From what I can gather from multiple sources(thedraftnetwork, draftek, etc.), here is a rough list of RB round predictions:

1 - Jacobs
2 - Sanders, Montgomery, Harris
3 - Henderson, Singletary, Anderson
4+ - Hill, Love, Snell Jr., Holyfield, Weber, T Williams, J Williams, D Williams, Gaskin, Barnes, Ozigbo, Armstead, Homer, Higdon, Scarlett, Scott, T Johnson, Brossette, Hills, Young, Hall, Mattison, D Thompson, B Anderson, Ollison, Ingold, Moore



That would be 1 can't miss prospect in Jacobs.

That would be 6 day 2 RBs, 2-3 of which will likely pan out as fantasy starters.

And then out of the remaining 26 RBs listed above, historically 10-18 of them will be drafted on day 3, 1-2 of which will become fantasy relevant starters. The other 10+- will have their shot at UDFA glory, of which 1 on average would become relevant.

[FantasyDumDum]

I personally don't buy into Jacobs at that round 1 level. He is much more of a question mark to me than any of the other round 1 backs since 2013 except for Penny.

Out of the day 2 RBs I think Sanders stands out, Montgomery and Harris are lower risk lower reward picks, and Henderson and Anderson are high risk high reward picks.

The day 3 backs that I would take a flyer on are Hill, Love, and maybe a few others, landing spot dependent.

[Johnny Canuck]

Nice post OP. This isn’t totally related but we’re talking about draft position and running backs so....There should also be some additional stock put into guys that teams trade up to obtain. I looked into it a bit last season, and there seemed to be some correlation if it was in the early rounds. I think the best recent examples are: Kerryon & Kamara. Fairly certain there is more guys but I can’t think of them now.

[Hottoddies]

Nice post OP. This isn’t totally related but we’re talking about draft position and running backs so....There should also be some additional stock put into guys that teams trade up to obtain. I looked into it a bit last season, and there seemed to be some correlation if it was in the early rounds. I think the best recent examples are: Kerryon & Kamara. Fairly certain there is more guys but I can’t think of them now.

Kansas City moved up to draft Hunt.

[Jason3123]

Draft capital is king. Speed score is also a decent indicator to find success. Big backs (220+) with sub 7 3-cones are also a strong group historically.

[hockeyBjj]

I'd wonder if round 2 and 3 RBs increase their hit rate if the team that takes them had moved up to get them?

Moving up for a skill player is always a signal to me to bump a guy up

[failblazer]

Very intriguing analysis. This is the kind of post that keeps me coming to the forums.

[FantasyDumDum]

Very intriguing analysis. This is the kind of post that keeps me coming to the forums.

[Flgatorguy87]

Nice job...now do WR's

[FantasyDumDum]

Nice job...now do WR's

Did it