Rookie QBs and Matt Waldman's RSP

[rubber_duck]

So I'm relaxing this Easter morning with hot cup of coffee & Baileys and reading a few posts on DLF. The kids have already finished finding the hidden eggs and the wife is getting cleaned up for church. It is as quiet a moment as I am going to get today. This is when the thread on Baker Mayfield and Andrew Luck appears on my screen.

That thread lead me from one thought to another, until my mind eventually settled on the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and Matt Waldman. The RSP is something I purchase every year ... I get it for the articles, not the pictures. I have found it to be a great catalogue to browse. Waldman's evaluations are not something I would necessarily throw my support behind, but I find the RSP to be a useful piece of work.

Having said that much, here is this: Matt Waldman has been very good at evaluating the QB prospects in recent years. I would strongly recommend reading his QB evaluations and, more importantly, reading how he goes about evaluating them.

The fantasy community, by and large, is not good at QB evaluation. Yes, that is painting a bad picture with a wide brush. But most of us know it is true. Playing in leagues that start 10 or 12 total quarterbacks does not create the need to do much evaluation, and we all know this. It is an all too common comment that QBs are easy to get and there is no need to draft one until the later rounds.

With fantasy swinging towards superflex there is going to be a need to evaluate QBs better. Matt's evaluation of the rookie QBs, I think, is a great place to start.

[Phaded]

Gil Brandt had very interesting praise for Daniel Jones.

[gmoftheyear]

Gil Brandt had very interesting praise for Daniel Jones.

I actually watched some more film on Jones and can see what Brandt was saying. Jones has a lot of Peyton's mannerisms to his game. Not saying he will be Peyton but there are similarities.

[ArrylT]

I get it for the articles, not the pictures.

That is what they all say.

However I quite agree that Waldmans RSP, along with the Ghost Report and several other publications, are great tools to start your rookie draft preparation. He has definitely been pretty solid on his QB analysis in recent years.

[Bot101]

I get it for the articles, not the pictures.

That is what they all say.

However I quite agree that Waldmans RSP, along with the Ghost Report and several other publications, are great tools to start your rookie draft preparation. He has definitely been pretty solid on his QB analysis in recent years.

Ghost report? Link please!

[ericanadian]

I get it for the articles, not the pictures.

That is what they all say.

However I quite agree that Waldmans RSP, along with the Ghost Report and several other publications, are great tools to start your rookie draft preparation. He has definitely been pretty solid on his QB analysis in recent years.

Ghost report? Link please!

FF Ghost. He used to work on this site. I got it the first couple years he did it and it was a solid baseline, but there is some seriously deep cuts going on there.

http://theffghost.com/orangereport

[ninotoreS]

Friggin nobody has a consistently good record evaluating QB prospects. Nevermind fantasy football pundits, pro scouts' track record isn't any better.

Waldman hit a grand slam banging the table for Mahomes, and he deserves a lot of credit for that. But he's also someone who loved Blaine Gabbert coming out. More recently, he was lukewarm about Mayfield and Watson.

It's a crapshoot for everyone. Couple of years ago I loved Watson and rolled my eyes at everyone whinging about his measured throw velocity. So I came out of that feeling oh so smart, right? Except... I had Mahomes far behind Watson on my board. Oops.

[jcc6fd]

Friggin nobody has a consistently good record evaluating QB prospects. Nevermind fantasy football pundits, pro scouts' track record isn't any better.

Waldman hit a grand slam banging the table for Mahomes, and he deserves a lot of credit for that. But he's also someone who loved Blaine Gabbert coming out. More recently, he was lukewarm about Mayfield and Watson.

It's a crapshoot for everyone. Couple of years ago I loved Watson and rolled my eyes at everyone whinging about his measured throw velocity. So I came out of that feeling oh so smart, right? Except... I had Mahomes far behind Watson on my board. Oops.

I remember audibly groaning on draft night when KC took Mahomes. Why would they trade up to take Mahomes, a fringe first rounder, with Watson on the board? I was certain that we were doomed to another era of QB purgatory. I don’t think anybody saw him reaching these heights.

[Ice]

Friggin nobody has a consistently good record evaluating QB prospects. Nevermind fantasy football pundits, pro scouts' track record isn't any better.

Waldman hit a grand slam banging the table for Mahomes, and he deserves a lot of credit for that. But he's also someone who loved Blaine Gabbert coming out. More recently, he was lukewarm about Mayfield and Watson.

It's a crapshoot for everyone. Couple of years ago I loved Watson and rolled my eyes at everyone whinging about his measured throw velocity. So I came out of that feeling oh so smart, right? Except... I had Mahomes far behind Watson on my board. Oops.

I remember audibly groaning on draft night when KC took Mahomes. Why would they trade up to take Mahomes, a fringe first rounder, with Watson on the board? I was certain that we were doomed to another era of QB purgatory. I don’t think anybody saw him reaching these heights.

KC certainly saw it or at least paid through the nose to hope for his results. The Texans saw the same thing in Watson. Both Teams moved up to get their guy.

While I wouldn't go as far as claiming its a crap shoot on QB's, they are extremely hard to evaluate. There is a high bust factor for sure.

Throwing mechanics and marrying the lower and upper body are fairly easy to evaluate if you know what you are looking for but the real hard part and the reason we see so many busts is evaluating the brains processing speed on plays. The difference between great and disaster can be as little as 3/10ths of a second and that is hard to evaluate for anyone because game speed at the NFL is so much faster. How a QB reacts under pressure is a critical component; Teams can squeeze improvement on accuracy with mechanics and repetition but it is almost impossible to improve how fast a QB's mind operates under pressure.

QB's are evaluated probably 5X more than most players. Scouts will look at every play they make in college in an attempt to determine how they process in game situations. The one thing I think a few overlook is if they have fun playing. It matters. Tom Brady is a player that is extremely intense but it is obvious he loves to actually play the game under pressure. Pretty much all the elites play this way. Wilson, Mahomes and Baker are a few examples that sure look like they love it when the game is on the line and can't wait for the next play. Wilson was just awarded the highest contract in the league. These two young guns play like him.

The last few years I have tried to determine if a player really loves to play. Mahomes fits the bill. Last year Baker and Josh Allen fit that bill. Darnold didn't for me personally. He looked like it was more work to play the game on film. Obviously Allen is more controversial but he is fun to watch compared to Darnold as an example because it is obvious he is fearless and having fun out there.

This season Murray fits the bill. He is really good under pressure and looks to love the game. For some the game just looks easy.

Brandt is rock solid as an evaluator so his take is worth noting.

[Jason3123]

Waldman said Jones is the type of QB that old NFL'ers would like, so it's kind of all lining up that the good ole' boys club NFL is hyping this kid due to his affiliations with the Manning family and that Duke coach. He's probably crushing interviews and again through his connections it makes sense that some NFL teams would like him considering half the organizations in this league are always looking backwards. Jones would be arguably one of the worst first round QB picks of all time so I can't wait to clown whatever organization does it. I hope it's the Giants, they deserve to suck for the next 5 years.

[tresskid84]

Waldman said Jones is the type of QB that old NFL'ers would like, so it's kind of all lining up that the good ole' boys club NFL is hyping this kid due to his affiliations with the Manning family and that Duke coach. He's probably crushing interviews and again through his connections it makes sense that some NFL teams would like him considering half the organizations in this league are always looking backwards. Jones would be arguably one of the worst first round QB picks of all time so I can't wait to clown whatever organization does it. I hope it's the Giants, they deserve to suck for the next 5 years.

Lol, Gettleman is the best thing to happen to the Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins in years.

[Valhalla74]

I purchased the RSP last year and I felt leaving unimpressed - won't purchase it again. There was a lot of cutting and pasting in the heading sections and I wasn't impressed with the structure of the document. The truth is he'll hit and miss just like everyone else. He's revered like a God in the dynasty community, appearing on pretty much every podcast out there. I don't see it. I'm fading him and the FBG crew personally...

[Ice]

I purchased the RSP last year and I felt leaving unimpressed - won't purchase it again. There was a lot of cutting and pasting in the heading sections and I wasn't impressed with the structure of the document. The truth is he'll hit and miss just like everyone else. He's revered like a God in the dynasty community, appearing on pretty much every podcast out there. I don't see it. I'm fading him and the FBG crew personally...

Agree.

[rubber_duck]

I purchased the RSP last year and I felt leaving unimpressed - won't purchase it again.

I think we should have an annual thread (or 4) set up for the an RSP discussion. Waldman reviews the 4 principle positions and we could have a thread for each. For me, it really is a nice catalogue on the players. His reviews of each position is more or less consistent, which I find helpful ... even though I don't agree with most of it. Ice, you were hitting on a few points that I think could be expanded on.

When we (or all of these draft pundits) are evaluating QB talent, I think there is some really decent work being done. Many times the correct evaluation may be made as to whether or not the player is physically & mentally capable of playing in the NFL. We are using a positive filter and selecting players based on their success.

But there are many factors that play into the evaluation of a fantasy QB. The actual player and talent level accounts for perhaps 50% of what we should be looking at. This may sound familiar to DD and a couple of others I've had prior discussions with ... but those were a few years ago.

What isn't done with QBs very often, or on a consistent basis, is applying a negative filter and throwing out all those players that trip a "red flag". There are certain aspects of a player or a player's situation that are clear red flags. Any one of those flags will dramatically increase the chances of failure or mediocrity.

If what we are trying to do is reduce the number of busts that we draft, then I would encourage considering a few of these red flags for QBs:
- Drafted by a team with a defensive head coach.
- Drafted by an unstable organization (e.g. Buffalo, Cleveland, Jets, Tennessee, etc.) Feel free to define "unstable" any way you like.
- Drafted by a franchise with a bottom 4 or 5 offensive line.

[ninotoreS]

Jones would be arguably one of the worst first round QB picks of all time

I dunno man, that's a helluva low bar.