I entered the draft with 5 picks. 1 3rd Round, 2 6th Round & 2 7th Round picks. After all was said and done, I ended up making 3 selections, all in the 7th Round.
My Draft Picks:
7.02 (86) - Ashton Dulin WR Malone
7.11 (95) - Ryan Nall RB Chicago Bears
7.12 (96) - Brett Rypien QB Boise State
My Draft Trades:
1:
Give: 3.09 (pick #37) & J. Rodgers
Get: Adrian Peterson
2:
Give: 6.09 & 6.10 (picks #79 & #80)
Get: 7.11, 7.12, 2020 5th & 2020 7th
3:
Give: 7.09 (pick #93)
Get: 2020 6th
My Thoughts:
My normal course of action when I take over an orphan is to tear it down (except for a core of guys I like) and then rebuild it with "my guys". However it quickly became apparent that this plan would not likely work due to how other owners were valuing their rookie picks - not that I can blame them. As such, and since I had been able to build a core I liked out of the dispersal early in the off-season, I changed directions and decided to take a shot at making the playoffs. I figured that (a) this would be a nice change of pace and familiarize myself with a strategy I rarely use, (b) I could use my 2019 picks to acquire more veteran talent and (c) if the 2020 class is as deep & talented as many believe, then even if I miss out on the playoffs I'll be in decent position to still grab a potential blue chip asset.
So over the course of the off-season I, where possible, moved my draft picks for veterans & guys I like. Note that again this was not an indictment against the 2019 class, but rather an acknowledgement that this league (a) valued the 2019 class highly and (b) sometimes the best course is to zag when others are zigging. Not to mention I am in plenty of leagues and have plenty of draft picks elsewhere where I can reap the benefits of the depth & talent of the (
highly underrated) 2019 class.
As such I found myself having successfully divested my team of all but 5 picks, and only 1 of them of "real value" in your typical 12 team ppr league with a 4 round rookie draft. I have openly stated that I (now) believe that elite players even when ageing deserve the benefit of the doubt. So I was quite pleased to pick up Adrian Peterson for the 3.09. There are no guarantees in life, but I am willing to gamble on a player who has proven time and time again how resilient he is and how great he keeps himself in shape. My guess is that AP wishes to chase down Emmitt Smiths record for most rushing yards. I doubt he succeeds, but he could easily finish top 3 all-time if things break his way. And like I said, I am not going to give up on them until they are fully down for the count.
I did not actually expect to move any other picks. So the offer to move back into the 7th, and gain an extra 5th in 2020 was a pleasant surprise. I thought about asking for more, since I was moving back not once, but twice, but after reviewing my board, I felt that there was still enough depth targets that I did not need to haggle over what was already a fair offer. And there were still a few veterans in FA I could add as well.
At 7.02 I decided to diverge from my original target and decided to gamble on a rookie I had not originally meant to focus on. Ashton Dulin. After reading the Combine report I noticed that it mentioned he had a safe chance of sticking with an NFL roster due to special teams appeal. And when drafting before the NFL Draft, that made my choice easy. Not to mention he was one of a few select Division II candidates to receive a combine invite.
Before my next selection came up, I got another surprise offer, which I also accepted without deciding to counter. Again my goal being to compete in 2019 and having extra 2020 assets I can use to add value in-season appealed perfectly. It also helped that 2 of the guys I had passed on at 7.02 for Dulin then went.
At 7.11, with so much of the draft done, I decided to gamble that at least 1 of my guys would slide out of the draft, and take a veteran. Well in name at least. Ryan Nall being a sleeper pick to many last year. Oddly enough his sleeper appeal has diminished this off-season despite the departure of Jordan Howard. Probably because of Mike Davis &/or the potential for Chicago to add at the position. But at the cost to acquire him, why not take a shot? If they do not add and Davis goes down, or fails to impress, then Nall could be next man up.
Finally at 7.12, I decided to take a stab, thanks to our taxi squad, on a developmental prospect QB. If the name seems familiar - it should. Brett Rypien is the nephew of Mark Rypien. 2 other members of his family had also played professional sports - and we are all aware of how a name pedigree can help you. Once again, at a low cost, I was able to grab a guy whose odds of succeeding may be higher than expected.
If we were to be optimistic and pretend that every late round pick had a 5% chance of success - I feel that the 3 late round stabs I got could easily have double that chance - so say 8-10%. Not too bad for 3 picks made in the 86-100 range.
