2019 vs 2020 pick values

[Factory of Sadness]

The one point I'd like to add is related to this-
'Either way, the QBs this year are considerably worse prospects; I don’t think you’ll find much of an argument to the contrary.'
I agree completely with this statement. The key though is that whilst they are worse prospects. A better prospect is no guarantee of a better player though. I've bought into this class relatively widely not because I'm in love with it - though I do like a number of the WRs- but because these picks remain lottery tickets. This year's tickets are cheap. The 2020 class does look better. You might have fractionally better odds with a 2020 pick than a 2019 pick. 2020 picks are going to cost an awful lot more though. Historically, most of this class will fail, as will most of next year's class.
I'm likely not moving 2020 picks for 2019 ones as I do prefer the top end of the 2020 class - and I hate not having my pick to move for a title push, or to cuddle if injuries make me sad. So much of what little we can predict comes when the player is drafted though, that I won't make that decision yet.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Ok, that’s fine. There’s still a difference between “this class is actually good,” which is contrary to all available evidence, and “this class is undervalued,” which appears to be the case in my limited experience trading for 2019 picks.

This class can be bad AND undervalued at the same time.

[Hottoddies]

Ok, that’s fine. There’s still a difference between “this class is actually good,” which is contrary to all available evidence, and “this class is undervalued,” which appears to be the case in my limited experience trading for 2019 picks.

This class can be bad AND undervalued at the same time.

It could still be undervalued while actually being good at the same time. And being really deep in value to boot, IMO.

[ArrylT]

This is an ideal class to help foster more debate on the age old question: Talent vs. Situation.

[jordanzs]

On the flip side, this seems to be a great year to publicly drop lines in your league about he “2019 draft class being weak” but then trade your 2020 picks to move into it. Hell you could probably trade your 2020 1st (even from a decent team) straight up for a mid 1st this year. I’ve seen 1 for 1 trades already. A 2019 1st for a 2020 1st.

[Stevens61310]

I maybe way too strict and rigid with my pick trade policy. But you (meaning anyone) cannot ever offer me a second round pick and expect to get my first--. In the OP's original post he asks what first can I get for my 2.01--In my case none--no matter the draft class or the year

[Mjvb5]

T;his narrative that this class sucks is ridiculous, just because people are trying to force rbs up and theres no locked in stud ddoesn't change that the wrs run 12-20 deept of solid day 1-2 prospects. A mid 2nd this year can get a marquise, isabella, JJ, harmon, deebo, or campbell all of whom I'd love

[Ice]

T;his narrative that this class sucks is ridiculous, just because people are trying to force rbs up and theres no locked in stud ddoesn't change that the wrs run 12-20 deept of solid day 1-2 prospects. A mid 2nd this year can get a marquise, isabella, JJ, harmon, deebo, or campbell all of whom I'd love

Agree,
My take is this is a very deep NFL draft class. Overall it could be one of the best in several years, especially at WR for fantasy players. That said, no one will really know for several years. Ultimately, it takes time to see how many players will actually develop into stars. A player like Jace Sternberger as an example, could be a 1st round prospect in some drafts but will probably go late 2nd or early 3rd and has the potential to grow into a star in a few years. He needs to grow into his body but looks like a player the Cowboys could take in the second round and let him develop for year. He is a very good prospect at a very deep position in this draft. A few 3rd round NFL WR's could also be big time players in a few years.

Fantasy wise this is a difficult class to judge due to it's overall depth. NFL wise, teams have to be really excited to be able to get a high end prospects 3 rounds deep.

It will be interesting to see NFL draft day trades with this class.

[Jason3123]

This class does suck. It is filled with mediocre prospects, that's why it seems "deep". There are very few players with superstar potential and one of them is a QB, and two are tight ends. We might get 1-2 stud WR's, but it ends there. Maybe one of the RB's will stick. This is why it seems deep, because they all look the same and there are no true standouts. These guys might stick around on NFL rosters and be limited contributors but we are not getting a lot of fantasy goodness out of this class.

QB's: Massive drop off after Kyler, even bigger drop off after Haskins, Grier is okay but he's already 24, and likely will be a late 1st or day 2 pick anyways. Has 2011 potential all over again.
RB's: Extremely weak class. Limited or pathetic athletes across the board. Top prospect doesn't come close to the elite backs we've had the last 3-4 classes.
WR's: Solid WR class with some fun names at the top. It really dies out though. Very few of them check the production boxes aside from Brown/Harry. Call me skeptical when the potential first WR off the board is 165 pounds and 23 years old.
TE's: Elite top 2 tight ends, and a few potential guys sprinkled around after but most have limited ceiling or massive flaws in their profiles.

We'll get a few guys from this class that hit hard but for the most part we'll be looking back at this one in 2-3 years and just seeing a bunch of average players who maybe hung around for a bit.

[Ice]

What is a bit ironic though is just how many WR’s tested better than D. Adams as an example or even Hopkins for that matter.

Didn’t Haskins break most of Drew Brees conference records?

Just saying it is way too early to claim this class sucks.

The lens of NFL production simply isn’t known for this class.

No doubt opinions vary but it’s time that will determine the strength or weakness of this class.

I tend to agree on RB’s but think 3 or 4 could be RB1’s in fantasy but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus Zeke or Barkley.

[Phaded]

I think there is plenty of value to be had in this draft, but also plenty of risk.

With that said - every single skill position player has some pretty big question marks.
Hell, the safest player is probably Hockenson to be completely honest; but we aren't going to see him go as a high first in rookie drafts.

Undoubtedly there will be some players that hit out of this class, however; it is much more difficult to predict than in previous year. The tricky part is picking the right players that are going to hit.

[M-Dub]

This is a very deep draft for WR’s and TE’s. Next looks to be RB heavy today.

Discount rounds by 1 per year is a good rule. I would never trade an early 2nd for a 1st next year unless I was sure it was a high pic.

Dynasty owners often forget that a developmental year is huge; Especially for WR’s and TE’s.

A Riley Ridley of a TE at 2.1 is a very valuable pick.

In my opinion dynasty owners thinking this draft is weak are not very good players that have forgotten or never knew the power of developing players and simply chase RB’s.

This is a very deep draft! Sharks know this. Group thinkers don’t!

Your contributions are usually pretty solid, and I don’t disagree that this class is deep at WR (and I guess TE to a lesser degree), but anyone advocating for Riley Ridley at the 2.01 should not be questioning the competence of other dynasty owners in the very next sentence. IMO, of course.

As to the original question, if draft classes are considered roughly equal, then trading the 2.01 for any future 1st always makes sense. If you’re rebuilding, waiting another year on the pick shouldn’t be of major concern. If you’re competing, whoever you take at 2.01 is unlikely to make a significant contribution anyway, so take the extra roster spot for a year and take a superior prospect next year. However, if your league is like mine and has collectively bought into the narrative (accurate or not) that 2020 is a superior class to 2019, you’re probably gonna have to add to the 2.01 or even a late 2019 1st to get a 2020 1st. As others have said, if you’re trying to gain draft capital, your best bet is to wait until you’re on the clock and hope that someone falls that a fellow owner is in love with.

[Jason3123]

What is a bit ironic though is just how many WR’s tested better than D. Adams as an example or even Hopkins for that matter.

Didn’t Haskins break most of Drew Brees conference records?

Just saying it is way too early to claim this class sucks.

The lens of NFL production simply isn’t known for this class.

No doubt opinions vary but it’s time that will determine the strength or weakness of this class.

I tend to agree on RB’s but think 3 or 4 could be RB1’s in fantasy but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus Zeke or Barkley.

It's not just about athletic testing. It's about production. Davante Adams was a historic elite producer. Hopkins also had an elite breakout age and strong production. Aside from Harry, we don't have many of those types of players in this class. We have a size-freak in Butler, a size-speed freak in DK, a small-speed freak in Brown. Actually we assume Brown is a speed freak, we have no testing on him. Hall never broke out, Boykin never produced, Isabella has been a mass producer on a lesser school but at least has crazy athletic testing. He would normally be a day 3 pick but this class is so bad he'll probably be overdrafted. Parris Campbell is a track star but also never broke out. This class will disappoint fantasy owners.

[Jason3123]

In addition to the RB's we've known for months this was a weak class. People are just caught up in draft excitement right now. There will be massive values in hindsight, but it'll be a bloody landmine filled class.

[Ice]

This is a very deep draft for WR’s and TE’s. Next looks to be RB heavy today.

Discount rounds by 1 per year is a good rule. I would never trade an early 2nd for a 1st next year unless I was sure it was a high pic.

Dynasty owners often forget that a developmental year is huge; Especially for WR’s and TE’s.

A Riley Ridley of a TE at 2.1 is a very valuable pick.

In my opinion dynasty owners thinking this draft is weak are not very good players that have forgotten or never knew the power of developing players and simply chase RB’s.

This is a very deep draft! Sharks know this. Group thinkers don’t!

Your contributions are usually pretty solid, and I don’t disagree that this class is deep at WR (and I guess TE to a lesser degree), but anyone advocating for Riley Ridley at the 2.01 should not be questioning the competence of other dynasty owners in the very next sentence. IMO, of course.

As to the original question, if draft classes are considered roughly equal, then trading the 2.01 for any future 1st always makes sense. If you’re rebuilding, waiting another year on the pick shouldn’t be of major concern. If you’re competing, whoever you take at 2.01 is unlikely to make a significant contribution anyway, so take the extra roster spot for a year and take a superior prospect next year. However, if your league is like mine and has collectively bought into the narrative (accurate or not) that 2020 is a superior class to 2019, you’re probably gonna have to add to the 2.01 or even a late 2019 1st to get a 2020 1st. As others have said, if you’re trying to gain draft capital, your best bet is to wait until you’re on the clock and hope that someone falls that a fellow owner is in love with.

Riley Ridley is a very good route runner with exceptional huge hands.

He isn’t fast obviously so long speed is an issue but as a possession WR he will most likely go higher than many think in the NFL draft and has plenty of potential to be a fantasy force in the coming years.

No issues with a high floor possession type at 2.1 in this draft. He should produce early as professional WR.

It has nothing to do with trading for future picks or not.

Obviously if you don’t think he can play don’t draft him.

The point in fantasy is some patience is required in drafting WR’s.