The Tyreek Hill Thread

[KU Sucks]

I picked him up off the ww in one league & I've got him on the block for a 1st rd pick. That said I would think he will be a wr#2, in ppr leagues. Will see if I can swing a trade off the hype!

[forrestmoons]

Hill will benefit but I thought he was overvalued to begin with. He just seems like a player that teams will be able to sort of eliminate now with their best true WR getting cut. Conley, Chesson, and Wilson gain more here in my eyes, though Hill is still the WR to own in my eyes as Ware and Kelce will get a ton of targets with Alex Smith and Andy Reid running the show still.

[Valhalla]

...Also, what is your qualifying level of targets to place Hill 68th, because 7.2 YPT is pretty decent. 7.0 YPA is considered a solid season for QBs and it's effectively two sides to the same coin.

It's not exactly two sides of the same coin. The QB having a collective YPA of 7.0 doesn't mean they should be happy with a speed WR getting 7.2. I haven't checked on it, but I'd venture that often RBs and maybe TEs bring the average down for QBs, and the WRs should be over the mark to boost it back up.
I haven't really looked into it much, though. I am pretty certain that AB (a comparison I've seen) has something like a 9YPT average on his career, albeit with an entirely different style of QB.

[GridironGuerilla]

My thoughts are that we have seen Tyreek Hill and that's just fine. As an owner I wouldn't expect a whole lot more from him other than a bump in target volume and the points that come along with that opportunity. I believe his play style is one that can be schemed against and his lack of consistency and skills as a WR will limit him. He MAY push the low end WR2 boundary as a ceiling but even a high end WR2 is out of the question in my opinion. My projection would be High end WR3. That doesn't excite me. I'll take Conley at his current price in KC.

[Valhalla]

And where does Kelce fall in with target volume? If they scheme for Tyreek reverses, bubble screens, slants, hitches, etc, that brings the safeties down and wide. Does that leave Kelce in the seam?

[bsp27]

CPatt failed because he can't pickup a playbook or learn anything past the most basic of routes, and Tavon has performed below average against basically all types of coverage throughout his career. Tyreek had more receiving yards as a rookie while playing less than 50% of his team's offensive snaps for half of a year than Tavon has had in any one season in his entire career.

I outlined those points in my original post.

Why are we so quick to compare these players when they are all very different?

Why is Tyreek doomed to be the next CPatt/Tavon instead of the next Harvin/Cobb?

Because Tyreek hill was never productive or efficient at the college level? Also, last year, he was 68th in the league with 7.2 yards per target. He doesn't understand the nuances of the wide receiver position and his route running is sloppy. His production was completely buoyed by big plays, mainly runs. You simply can't expect a player like him to maintain any sort of week to week efficiency. Albert Wilson is the buy.

While I didn't agree, I understood your argument right up until you pitched Albert Wilson. Wilson has been given opportunity and got passed by Conley and then Hill. Chances of him doing anything at this point are pretty slim. Also, what is your qualifying level of targets to place Hill 68th, because 7.2 YPT is pretty decent. 7.0 YPA is considered a solid season for QBs and it's effectively two sides to the same coin.

7.2 yards per target is definitely not good, check out playerprofiler.com to find out.

Hill's vertical routes were well run. Obviously, he's still developing the rest of his route tree, basically from scratch.

C-Patt was supposed to be a WR at Tennessee. Hill, in contrast, lined up far more often in the backfield than at the LoS at Okie State; he was much more RB than WR. Thus, Hill had more excuse to be raw as a WR. C-Patt was (and still is) raw because, it would turn out, he just doesn't seem to have the football brain to learn anything technical. Hill took his first pro year transitioning from RB to WR and turned it into 65 receptions.

Because Tyreek hill was never productive or efficient at the college level?

Hill was very useful to Okie State's offense. He just didn't get consistent stat opportunities as a gadget running-back. If Hill had played more than one year of college ball, I'm guessing his statistical trajectory would've resembled Randall Cobb's at Kentucky.

So apparently you don't know that he played a full season at Western Alabama? Well, at Western Alabama, in 2015 (the year before he was drafted), his stats were embarrassing. He had a few big runs, but had two games with zero catches, and five other games under 32 yards. I mean he even had a game with 2 catches for -3 yards lol. And this is against competition like Shorter, Delta State University, Valdosta state, and Texas A and M Kingsville.

Here's a tip: If a player is extremely athletic and dwarfs his opponents in terms of athleticism, but still isn't able to produce consistently, its a huge red flag. This is how Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin were identified as busts. But, if you want to keep chasing the few explosive runs, by all means, go ahead, but you will certainly regret it.

[CharlieKelly]

My thoughts are that we have seen Tyreek Hill and that's just fine. As an owner I wouldn't expect a whole lot more from him other than a bump in target volume and the points that come along with that opportunity. I believe his play style is one that can be schemed against and his lack of consistency and skills as a WR will limit him. He MAY push the low end WR2 boundary as a ceiling but even a high end WR2 is out of the question in my opinion. My projection would be High end WR3. That doesn't excite me. I'll take Conley at his current price in KC.

That seems like an odd projection because his final tally at the end of his rookie season in PPR already was pushing low end WR2 (finished as WR27).

When Tyreek finally started getting more than 50% of his team's snaps on offense and actually getting worked into the game plan (weeks 8-17), he finished as WR9 overall in that span. So it looks like he already outperformed those projections, albeit in a smaller sample size.

I also don't know why some people are set on Tyreek not progressing as a WR. I guess we should assume some rookies can't get any better?

He already seems like a more accomplished route runner than CPatt has ever been, and better at beating all types of coverage than Tavon Austin.

How well did teams manage to scheme against Percy Harvin?

[GridironGuerilla]

I stated that I believe we have already seen Tyreek Hill. Because I believe that, my projections for him aren't much higher than he finished last year. If he moves from WR27 to WR22 based on a bit more target volume but taking into consideration inconsistency and a possible stiffing due to defenses scheming for him a bit more with not a lot of other threats on the field, I'm not going to be overly surprised, but I don't see much more than that for him and I don't see it being perennial. I'm sorry, but I just don't predict a big breakout for him into WR1 on any offense or in Fantasy. But like I said, that's okay. If you're looking for a low floor high ceiling low end WR2 as I see him developing, more power to you. I would just temper expectations is all, and I see room for other players like Conely, to possibly play a larger role and be the one who develops into the WR1 on that offense. We can agree to disagree. These are just my opinions. I'm okay with that. I'm looking into my crystal ball and you're looking into yours.

(Just a side note, Hill finished as the WR 29 in PPR. Not sure what the variation would be attributed to but just thought I'd edit and add it.)

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I agree with what many have said about Tyreek Hill here and how he still needs to develop more as a route-runner. That said, I'm pretty optimistic on Hill for two reasons:

1. KC felt comfortable enough to release Jeremy Maclin. Yes, they obviously would've preferred to keep Maclin were it not for salary cap issues, but the fact remains that KC chose to cut Maclin over a defensive player or lineman. They have showed faith that Hill will continue to develop and take that next step.
2. In terms of 7.2 yards per target and the limited route trees Hill ran, what did you expect Andy Reid to do when his QB doesn't have a great deep ball and prefers not to throw up contested passes? While Hill's ceiling might currently be limited, I fully expect KC to start Patrick Mahomes as soon as late 2017, and at the latest Week 1 of 2018. Assuming KC signs a talented WR from the 2014 class in FA to supplement their offense, Hill will see plenty of deep shots to maximize his production with Mahomes under center. Good luck covering Hill deep with Travis Kelce racing up the seam, Jarvis Landry or Donte Moncrief in the slot, and Kareem Hunt coming out of the backfield.

[StableOfRBs]

I agree with what many have said about Tyreek Hill here and how he still needs to develop more as a route-runner. That said, I'm pretty optimistic on Hill for two reasons:

1. KC felt comfortable enough to release Jeremy Maclin. Yes, they obviously would've preferred to keep Maclin were it not for salary cap issues, but the fact remains that KC chose to cut Maclin over a defensive player or lineman. They have showed faith that Hill will continue to develop and take that next step.
2. In terms of 7.2 yards per target and the limited route trees Hill ran, what did you expect Andy Reid to do when his QB doesn't have a great deep ball and prefers not to throw up contested passes? While Hill's ceiling might currently be limited, I fully expect KC to start Patrick Mahomes as soon as late 2017, and at the latest Week 1 of 2018. Assuming KC signs a talented WR from the 2014 class in FA to supplement their offense, Hill will see plenty of deep shots to maximize his production with Mahomes under center. Good luck covering Hill deep with Travis Kelce racing up the seam, Jarvis Landry or Donte Moncrief in the slot, and Kareem Hunt coming out of the backfield.

to be fair that "defensive player or lineman" was Tamba Hali who is a 5 time pro bowler

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I agree with what many have said about Tyreek Hill here and how he still needs to develop more as a route-runner. That said, I'm pretty optimistic on Hill for two reasons:

1. KC felt comfortable enough to release Jeremy Maclin. Yes, they obviously would've preferred to keep Maclin were it not for salary cap issues, but the fact remains that KC chose to cut Maclin over a defensive player or lineman. They have showed faith that Hill will continue to develop and take that next step.
2. In terms of 7.2 yards per target and the limited route trees Hill ran, what did you expect Andy Reid to do when his QB doesn't have a great deep ball and prefers not to throw up contested passes? While Hill's ceiling might currently be limited, I fully expect KC to start Patrick Mahomes as soon as late 2017, and at the latest Week 1 of 2018. Assuming KC signs a talented WR from the 2014 class in FA to supplement their offense, Hill will see plenty of deep shots to maximize his production with Mahomes under center. Good luck covering Hill deep with Travis Kelce racing up the seam, Jarvis Landry or Donte Moncrief in the slot, and Kareem Hunt coming out of the backfield.

to be fair that "defensive player or lineman" was Tamba Hali who is a 5 time pro bowler

Fair point, but I would say the defense is probably in better shape overall than the offense, so it's still a vote of confidence in Hill despite the mitigating factors.

[ninotoreS]

http://www60.myfantasyleague.com/2016/m ... id=4933568

Ah, Multiple Scoregasms; the favorite team name of all those guys that just google "funny fantasy football team names" instead of thinking up their own.

[CharlieKelly]

So apparently you don't know that he played a full season at Western Alabama? Well, at Western Alabama, in 2015 (the year before he was drafted), his stats were embarrassing. He had a few big runs, but had two games with zero catches, and five other games under 32 yards. I mean he even had a game with 2 catches for -3 yards lol. And this is against competition like Shorter, Delta State University, Valdosta state, and Texas A and M Kingsville.

Here's a tip: If a player is extremely athletic and dwarfs his opponents in terms of athleticism, but still isn't able to produce consistently, its a huge red flag. This is how Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin were identified as busts. But, if you want to keep chasing the few explosive runs, by all means, go ahead, but you will certainly regret it.

Tavon Austin had multiple 1,000 yard seasons in college and was 9th in the nation in overall YFS in his senior year.

We should be examining these players on a case by case basis, not trying to shoehorn them into a specific group because they all play similar roles on their respective teams.

CPatt can't pickup a playbook.

Tavon plays for the Rams and isn't successful consistently against coverage.

I feel like there's some recency bias here with some people evaluating Tyreek given the recent "busts" with guys who do similar things to him.

Tyreek's play and measurables look a lot closer to Percy Harvin than CPatt or Tavon.

[ninotoreS]

So apparently you don't know that he played a full season at Western Alabama? Well, at Western Alabama, in 2015 (the year before he was drafted), his stats were embarrassing. He had a few big runs, but had two games with zero catches, and five other games under 32 yards. I mean he even had a game with 2 catches for -3 yards lol. And this is against competition like Shorter, Delta State University, Valdosta state, and Texas A and M Kingsville.

Here's a tip: If a player is extremely athletic and dwarfs his opponents in terms of athleticism, but still isn't able to produce consistently, its a huge red flag. This is how Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin were identified as busts. But, if you want to keep chasing the few explosive runs, by all means, go ahead, but you will certainly regret it.

His starved stat opportunities there were for precisely the same reason he lacked opportunities in his one Okie State season; 185lbs gadget RBs generally just aren't gonna be high touch-count players. Oh, and you're misrepresenting how he did at West Bama, too. Here, I'll help you: http://www.uwaathletics.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=3014. Look at the game-log. Hill was only more explosive per touch.

You're not actually addressing the points I actually made, you know.

Here's a tip: If a player is extremely athletic and dwarfs his opponents in terms of athleticism, but still isn't able to produce consistently, its a huge red flag.

/facepalm

Here's a tip: watch the 2016 NFL season that saw a certain rookie make 65 catches despite transitioning to a new position, get 89 targets playing 41% of his offense's snaps, and earn 1st-team All-Pro / Pro Bowl / All-Rookie team honors.

There's flags here all right, but most of them ain't red. For a flipping rookie making a position switch, 'unable to produce consistently' is a laughable assessment of Tyreek Hill's debut professional football season.

Or are you actually trying to argue that Hill's professional performance is less important to us than his college statlines as a tweener RB his coaches didn't know how to use?

[Valhalla]

I agree with what many have said about Tyreek Hill here and how he still needs to develop more as a route-runner. That said, I'm pretty optimistic on Hill for two reasons:

1. KC felt comfortable enough to release Jeremy Maclin. Yes, they obviously would've preferred to keep Maclin were it not for salary cap issues, but the fact remains that KC chose to cut Maclin over a defensive player or lineman. They have showed faith that Hill will continue to develop and take that next step.
2. In terms of 7.2 yards per target and the limited route trees Hill ran, what did you expect Andy Reid to do when his QB doesn't have a great deep ball and prefers not to throw up contested passes? While Hill's ceiling might currently be limited, I fully expect KC to start Patrick Mahomes as soon as late 2017, and at the latest Week 1 of 2018. Assuming KC signs a talented WR from the 2014 class in FA to supplement their offense, Hill will see plenty of deep shots to maximize his production with Mahomes under center. Good luck covering Hill deep with Travis Kelce racing up the seam, Jarvis Landry or Donte Moncrief in the slot, and Kareem Hunt coming out of the backfield.

I'm sure the Chiefs feel good about Hill, but I'm also pretty confident that Reid would have loved to keep Maclin if he could. Here's the scenario:
They are in a cap situation where they are needing to likely cut one of a few players. It doesn't matter how much they like them or were depending on leaning on them...they almost NEEDED to pick one of these guys to part ways with. Those players: Alex Smith, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and Jeremy Maclin. Correct me if I'm wrong on that or forgetting someone.
A) Alex Smith, your underwhelming but still dependable team QB in a league where QB is so crucial, or Jeremy Maclin, the oft and currently injured WR? Cut the WR
B) Houston/Hali, both elite at applying pressure in a league dependent on getting to the QB? Or Jeremy Maclin, the injured WR in a league being flooded with effective WRs? Cut the WR.

So, even if the Chiefs do NOT FEEL GOOD about their WR depth absent Maclin, their hand was forced. Cutting Maclin, IMO, was in no way a sign of confidence in Hill. I think that's a misread. Cutting someone was necessary, and losing a WR is an easier pill to swallow than losing a QB or an effective rusher.

As to your second point about "just wait until Mahomes and Hill," go watch the footwork of Mahomes. Sure, the kid has a cannon. He'll be throwing off-balance quite often, though...by choice. Maybe the QB whisperer can fix it...but I'm not banking on it.

So I guess in short, how I feel about your two reasons for optimism
1. I think it's a false read many are making. They chose to cut Maclin, but only chose him over cutting the QB or pro bowl edge rusher. They didn't necessarily cut him due to confidence in the guys behind him.
2. The bright future ahead with Mahomes...I don't see it. We all see different things in players, though...especially QBs.