The Tyreek Hill Thread

[CharlieKelly]

He looks a lot like Tyler Lockett to me:

Stats: Rec/TD, Rush/TD, Return/TD
Locket (2015), 664/6, 20/0, 1202/2
Hill (2016), 593/6, 267/3, 976/3

If you're league gives points for return yards, he is a huge asset. If you're league doesn't, he is just a little fast guy. No Return yards, go draft Taylor Gabrial 10 rounds later for the same ballpark fantasy points.

It's important to note that Lockett in 2015 (which was his rookie year) didn't start seeing significant snaps until about halfway through the season, and on the year was only in on 61% of his team's offensive snaps.

Hill on the season as a rookie only saw the field for 41% of his team's offensive snaps, and didn't see a snap count over 50% until about halfway through the season.

Garbriel isn't expected to take on a role like either of these two are in line for in the near future.

[CharlieKelly]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/6/7/ ... get-player

This is a great breakdown on Tyreek and has a much more detailed rundown on his acumen as a receiver. Yes, he still needs some work but there is so much to like here.

He can beat coverage and get separation:

https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/sta ... 0973342720

https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/sta ... 9316972544

He can excel in intermediate routes:

https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/sta ... 9267518464

Beats press coverage:

https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/sta ... 1962661889

He's got ball skills:

https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher/statu ... 2597201920

He can track the ball:

https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher/statu ... 3452471296

And he has terrific YAC ability:

https://twitter.com/RealMNchiefsfan/sta ... 6026492929


I'm telling you right now, this isn't Tavon or CPatt, this is closer to Percy Harvin than anything.

If you can find someone in your league who thinks he's still just a gadget player, buy him.

[Chris_R]

I own him, and like him a good bit due to Andy Reid utilizing a weapon like him, but after Maclin was cut I've shopped him around to try and sell high if possible. There are some intriguing buy lows out there I like such as Sammy Watkins where I'd love to do make a deal for during this window.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

What role do you see Hill taking? WR #1 for his team? I don't see it.
Small guys almost never become WR #1's. AB aside.

I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with Tyreek Hill becoming the clear no. 1 WR in KC, but can we stop with this narrative that small WRs can't be a team's no. 1? Aside from Antonio Brown, we've also had guys like T.Y. Hilton and Doug Baldwin among others and arguably even WRs like Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry could be considered the "no. 1" WR for their teams. A player doesn't have to be 6'3 220 to be a consistent fantasy WR.

[CharlieKelly]

Garbriel isn't expected to take on a role like either of these two are in line for in the near future.

What role do you see Hill taking? WR #1 for his team? I don't see it.
Small guys almost never become WR #1's. AB aside.

I'd wager (assuming no points for return yards), Gabriel and Hill will have similar stat lines for the next few years.
Gabriel has a better QB. He is in a higher octane offense. His ADP is 10 rounds later.

I like Hill but they hype he is getting right now is straight up crazy.

Reid has already come out and said Hill will be the lead WR in his offense this year. There is a full breakdown in the article I posted above outlining that Hill has already flashed the traits you need from a #1 WR.

And like Ditka said, enough with the notion that smaller WRs can't be the lead WRs on their respective teams. There's plenty of guys in the league currently that prove that idea wrong.

Tyreek has 20+ pounds and a couple inches in height on Taylor Gabriel, and they are very different players in almost every aspect in how they were used and how they scored their points.

[CharlieKelly]

Aside from Antonio Brown, we've also had guys like T.Y. Hilton and Doug Baldwin among others and arguably even WRs like Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry could be considered the "no. 1" WR for their teams. A player doesn't have to be 6'3 220 to be a consistent fantasy WR.

Outliers, you got 4 names, 2 are debatable. I'd say Fins, Seahawks, are looking for better bigger WRs to be the team #1. (Parker, Moncrief)

I've got Evans, Julio, AJ, Amari, Hopkins, Dez, M.Thomas, ARob, Perriman, C.Davis(or Mathews if we're not counting rookies), Watkins, Demaryius, M.Williams (or K.Allen/T.Williams), Fitz, Alson, Doctson, OBJ (on the bubble as to big/small), Kelvin Benjamin, Jordy, Marvin Jones.

So yeah, If I'm just going by the odds, I'm betting against Hill becoming his teams #1.

You also forgot Diggs, Tate, and Cooks last year.

It's almost as if we should look at each team on a case by case basis and judge players by their talent instead of dismissing a player because they're not 6'3 / 215 lbs.

[CharlieKelly]

You also forgot Diggs, Tate, and Cooks last year.

Diggs is 6' and Thielen was better than Diggs last year @6'2"
And Marvin Jones @6'2" was way better than Tate.

So no, I didn't forget them. Cooks, maybe, but the Saints sure didn't mind letting him go now that they have Thomas.


EDIT: Ok, Jones wasn't WAY better. Pretty much the same stats. Both crappy. So did it matter who was #1 for the team?

Diggs is one of the most talented overall WRs in the league. I'd suggest you actually watch some football before making comments like that.

[Cabana]

What role do you see Hill taking? WR #1 for his team? I don't see it.
Small guys almost never become WR #1's. AB aside.

I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with Tyreek Hill becoming the clear no. 1 WR in KC, but can we stop with this narrative that small WRs can't be a team's no. 1? Aside from Antonio Brown, we've also had guys like T.Y. Hilton and Doug Baldwin among others and arguably even WRs like Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry could be considered the "no. 1" WR for their teams. A player doesn't have to be 6'3 220 to be a consistent fantasy WR.

You forgot to mention that the #1 dynasty asset is also 5'11''.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

You also forgot Diggs, Tate, and Cooks last year.

Diggs is 6' and Thielen was better than Diggs last year @6'2"

EDIT: Ok, Jones wasn't WAY better. Pretty much the same stats. Both crappy. So did it matter who was #1 for the team?

Uhh...a few points:
1. Adam Thielen was in no way better than Stefon Diggs unless you're looking purely at end of year stats. That also doesn't take into account the fact that Diggs was playing through a groin strain for a large part of the year.
2. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate had similar stats; how is that an argument in favor of the bigger WR if they were able to perform similarly? On that note, Emmanuel Sanders also had basically the same stats to Demaryius Thomas despite being 5'11 180.

Anyway, I don't want to turn this into a big vs small WR debate. Getting back to Tyreek Hill specifically, the opportunity is there. Maybe Chris Conley or one of the other KC WRs will take over the no. 1 WR duties, but I would say Hill has the best shot considering the KC offense basically revolved around him and Travis Kelce last year.

[CharlieKelly]

Diggs is one of the most talented overall WRs in the league. I'd suggest you actually watch some football before making comments like that.

LOL, I'm a die hard Vikings fan and Diggs isn't one of the most talented WRs in the league. I'd put him on the high end of top 25.
And dude, HE IS 6'00" 200LBS, so you don't get to claim him as a SMALL WR.

Huh, I've never seen a Vikings fan who doesn't watch his own team's games.

Agree to disagree I guess. Diggs is generally considered a rising star by the majority of the football community, and his career arc is pointing upwards in a big way. He's already one of the finest route runners in the league and has no holes in his game. Multiple games flashing high end WR1 potential. A lot of big names in the dynasty community see his star potential.

But yes, he's probably already hit his ceiling. He is already 23 years old, after all. Just like Tyreek. They're too small to make a difference. Theilen is probably better than them though because he's...taller and stuff.

[CharlieKelly]

Diggs is generally considered a rising star by the majority of the football community, and his career arc is pointing upwards in a big way. He's already one of the finest route runners in the league and has no holes in his game. Multiple games flashing high end WR1 potential. A lot of big names in the dynasty community see his star potential.

But yes, he's probably already hit his ceiling. He is already 23 years old, after all. Just like Tyreek. They're too small to make a difference. Theilen is probably better than them though because he's...taller and stuff.

Generally considered a rising star is a lot different than one of the most talented overall WRs in the league.
Your back pedal ability has increased by 1.

Who said to small to make a difference?
Your spin ability has increased by 1.

Which number is greater, WR1's who are above 6' and 200lbs or WR1's who are below 6' and 200lbs.
Because that's all I've ever said, the odds are against Hill becoming a WR1. Can he? Maybe. Will he? Maybe.
Do the statistics say it's a probability? No.

You can be one of the most talented players in the league and still be a rising star. Being talented is not the same thing as hitting your full potential.

Either way, trying to gauge Tyreek's value because of his size compared to other #1 WRs is nothing but an unreasonable exercise to try and prove he'll fail. His skill set is more similar to Percy Harvin and Desean Jackson (who also just happened to have success in Reid's system, and who Reid has openly compared Tyreek's situation to), so you're better off comparing his future potential to those players instead of dismissing him because he doesn't fit the typical prototypical WR1 mold.

[CharlieKelly]

Either way, trying to gauge Tyreek's value because of his size compared to other #1 WRs is nothing but an unreasonable exercise to try and prove he'll fail. His skill set is more similar to Percy Harvin and Desean Jackson (who also just happened to have success in Reid's system, and who Reid has openly compared Tyreek's situation to), so you're better off comparing his future potential to those players instead of dismissing him because he doesn't fit the typical prototypical WR1 mold.

Why is it unreasonable? It's done all the time. Size/Height is a common factor when evaluating potential. To say it isn't is absurd.
I mean by your logic we should throw all physical stats out the window. Who cares if a guy has small hands. Non-factor. Who cares if a guy is fat. Non-factor. Who cares if a guy has short arms. Non-factor.

NO. NO. NO.

Physical attributes are a 100% acceptable means to compare players. But that doesn't mean a guy can't overcome them. Just as Antonio Brown did. The point again is the odds are stacked against him. So I'm not buying, especially since he is super hyped right now.

Now that Maclin is gone, we'll see how he does vs. #1 Cornerbacks. I'll still buying Gabriel not cause he is better than Hill but because he is close enough and opposite Julio.

And let's say he has as good as a career as Percy Harvin and/or Desean Jackson. I'm still not buying at his current price.

It's unreasonable because we've already got tape that shows flashes of what you need from a WR1. Separation and/or ability to win at the catch point, good hands, ball tracking skills, physicality, YAC ability. I posted it earlier, but here it is again:

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/6/7/ ... get-player

Once we have NFL tape on a player, the importance of their measurables takes a backseat to what we see on the field.

[StableOfRBs]

Diggs is generally considered a rising star by the majority of the football community, and his career arc is pointing upwards in a big way. He's already one of the finest route runners in the league and has no holes in his game. Multiple games flashing high end WR1 potential. A lot of big names in the dynasty community see his star potential.

But yes, he's probably already hit his ceiling. He is already 23 years old, after all. Just like Tyreek. They're too small to make a difference. Theilen is probably better than them though because he's...taller and stuff.

Generally considered a rising star is a lot different than one of the most talented overall WRs in the league.
Your back pedal ability has increased by 1.

Who said to small to make a difference?
Your spin ability has increased by 1.

Which number is greater, WR1's who are above 6' and 200lbs or WR1's who are below 6' and 200lbs.
Because that's all I've ever said, the odds are against Hill becoming a WR1. Can he? Maybe. Will he? Maybe.
Do the statistics say it's a probability? No.

You can be one of the most talented players in the league and still be a rising star. Being talented is not the same thing as hitting your full potential.

Either way, trying to gauge Tyreek's value because of his size compared to other #1 WRs is nothing but an unreasonable exercise to try and prove he'll fail. His skill set is more similar to Percy Harvin and Desean Jackson (who also just happened to have success in Reid's system, and who Reid has openly compared Tyreek's situation to), so you're better off comparing his future potential to those players instead of dismissing him because he doesn't fit the typical prototypical WR1 mold.

You keep saying this but DJax had mixed success in Reid's system (2 1000 yard seasons, 3 seasons under 1000 yards, only 1 season with more than 6 rec TDs) and was used a lot differently than Tyreek has been, Tyreek had 61 catches last year which is 1 fewer than the most DJax ever had in any season under Reid, DJax was mostly split out wide and used as a burner whereas Tyreek is used largely around the line of scrimmage, his 9.7 yards per catch last year is 5 yards lower than Desean's LOWEST yards per catch and is 8 yards lower than Deseans career average of 17.7

Now, granted, Tyreek could be used as an outside guy but that doesn't play to the strengths of Smith or the KC offense in general, and yes I get that Mahomes will be the QB within the next 1 or 2 years but I'm not gonna buy Hill now on the speculation of what he and Mahomes could do with a revamped KC offense when I can just wait until his value goes down a bit

[Valhalla]

Which number is greater, WR1's who are above 6' and 200lbs or WR1's who are below 6' and 200lbs.
Because that's all I've ever said, the odds are against Hill becoming a WR1. Can he? Maybe. Will he? Maybe.
Do the statistics say it's a probability? No.

I hate this argument so much...probably just because I see it too often.

Which number is greater: right handed medical doctors or left handed medical doctors?
Well...being that only about 10% of medical doctors are left handed...if you are left handed and in medical school you are wasting your time. 90% of the time you need to be right handed, right?

My point here is, sure there are more top end "big" WRs than there are top end "small" WRs...but that doesn't mean they are more probable to succeed...at all. First, you HAVE TO DETERMINE WHAT THE BASELINE POPULATION IS. Are there more big WRs entering the league each year than small WRs? If the overall population of WRs is that of bigger size (hint- it is), then you should expect that on the elite, successful, useful, and unsuccessful levels, "big" WRs are likely to have a larger population than "small".

[Goirish374]

You hate the argument precisely because it is preposterous.

(to say nothing of the selection bias at work with drafting and starting and sticking with taller WRs.)