Let's talk... Hakeem Butler

[joeya2001]

Reynolds was his WR1 in that class... yikers

To be clear, I respect Waldman a lot - but that is a tough list of WRs to be crazy high on in just the last 3 years.

This is just kind of what happens when you're 100% film and 0% analytics.

I’m always surprised at the guys who bet against analytics. You’re much more wrong than you are right in those cases. Film matters, sure, but Waldman is 100% film and that isn’t right. Just as the guys who are 100% analytics. I’m heavy into analytics but in doing so I have picked up on what to look for when determining going against the analytic trend, and it’s been fairly reliable.

It’s just not as fun for people to look at numbers. Film guys kind of humor me at times. There are two types: guys who actually watch film and know what they’re doing (rarity), and guys who think looking up YouTube videos is akin to watching film and like to pretend to be some big time nfl scout but in reality have no idea what they’re actually looking for

Again, watching a player play is very important, but let’s be honest about what’s actually going on, and have an honest discussion about it.

Butler had two stone slabs for hands. I am not surprised he didn’t perform well when given the chance. Day 3 WRs have an extremely low hit rate. I’m not expecting him to turn it around

You mean highlight tales don’t equal NFL success?

[Johnny B. Goode]

This is just kind of what happens when you're 100% film and 0% analytics.

I’m always surprised at the guys who bet against analytics. You’re much more wrong than you are right in those cases. Film matters, sure, but Waldman is 100% film and that isn’t right. Just as the guys who are 100% analytics. I’m heavy into analytics but in doing so I have picked up on what to look for when determining going against the analytic trend, and it’s been fairly reliable.

It’s just not as fun for people to look at numbers. Film guys kind of humor me at times. There are two types: guys who actually watch film and know what they’re doing (rarity), and guys who think looking up YouTube videos is akin to watching film and like to pretend to be some big time nfl scout but in reality have no idea what they’re actually looking for

Again, watching a player play is very important, but let’s be honest about what’s actually going on, and have an honest discussion about it.

Butler had two stone slabs for hands. I am not surprised he didn’t perform well when given the chance. Day 3 WRs have an extremely low hit rate. I’m not expecting him to turn it around

You mean highlight tales don’t equal NFL success?

Not to turn this discussion into a debate on that- that’s exactly what I’m talking about. Watching some highlights to “here comes the boom” doesn’t really give you an idea
of what a guy really is like.
I have mad respect for the guys who literally watch game tape. I believe there is a website that gives you all of the plays a particular player played in

[bbsmitz]

I’m always surprised at the guys who bet against analytics. You’re much more wrong than you are right in those cases. Film matters, sure, but Waldman is 100% film and that isn’t right. Just as the guys who are 100% analytics. I’m heavy into analytics but in doing so I have picked up on what to look for when determining going against the analytic trend, and it’s been fairly reliable.

It’s just not as fun for people to look at numbers. Film guys kind of humor me at times. There are two types: guys who actually watch film and know what they’re doing (rarity), and guys who think looking up YouTube videos is akin to watching film and like to pretend to be some big time nfl scout but in reality have no idea what they’re actually looking for

Again, watching a player play is very important, but let’s be honest about what’s actually going on, and have an honest discussion about it.

Butler had two stone slabs for hands. I am not surprised he didn’t perform well when given the chance. Day 3 WRs have an extremely low hit rate. I’m not expecting him to turn it around

Would you mind breaking this down a little more (I'm coming from a novice perspective). Particularly two questions,

1) What analytics were speaking against Butler? Breakout age? Only 1 year of production? (Both?)
2) What do you find to be the giveaways when the film indicates the player might be successful, despite a weak analytic profile.

Thanks for reading!

[Servo]

1) What analytics were speaking against Butler? Breakout age? Only 1 year of production? (Both?)

- Redshirt at Iowa State (not Bama or OSU...not a particularly strong football school)
- Didn't command targets until his 3rd year at that same school
- Older prospect / late breakout

But let's be honest, Butler's fall in the draft saved fantasy owners, because a guy that was being talked about as a 1st rounder fell deep into the 2nd or even 3rd (contingent on league type of course). Taking a flier on Butler there won't kill your team nearly as much as Treadwell, Doctson and maybe, just maybe Harry.

This year, I had no issues taking a flier on Aiyuk in the late 2nd (2QB) over Shenault/Edwards. But even though people will point towards Aiyuk's "late breakout"...he was good in Junior College and was good at ASU...let alone he's dynamic with the ball in his hands...something that guys like Treadwell, Doctson, DGB, Butler just aren't.

[ThunderTung]

I’m always surprised at the guys who bet against analytics. You’re much more wrong than you are right in those cases. Film matters, sure, but Waldman is 100% film and that isn’t right. Just as the guys who are 100% analytics. I’m heavy into analytics but in doing so I have picked up on what to look for when determining going against the analytic trend, and it’s been fairly reliable.

It’s just not as fun for people to look at numbers. Film guys kind of humor me at times. There are two types: guys who actually watch film and know what they’re doing (rarity), and guys who think looking up YouTube videos is akin to watching film and like to pretend to be some big time nfl scout but in reality have no idea what they’re actually looking for

Again, watching a player play is very important, but let’s be honest about what’s actually going on, and have an honest discussion about it.

Butler had two stone slabs for hands. I am not surprised he didn’t perform well when given the chance. Day 3 WRs have an extremely low hit rate. I’m not expecting him to turn it around

You mean highlight tales don’t equal NFL success?

Not to turn this discussion into a debate on that- that’s exactly what I’m talking about. Watching some highlights to “here comes the boom” doesn’t really give you an idea
of what a guy really is like.
I have mad respect for the guys who literally watch game tape. I believe there is a website that gives you all of the plays a particular player played in

Happen to have a link to this website?

[Shankopotamus]

You mean highlight tales don’t equal NFL success?

Not to turn this discussion into a debate on that- that’s exactly what I’m talking about. Watching some highlights to “here comes the boom” doesn’t really give you an idea
of what a guy really is like.
I have mad respect for the guys who literally watch game tape. I believe there is a website that gives you all of the plays a particular player played in

Happen to have a link to this website?

Yeah, I'd pay for that. Would definitely keep me from drafting the N'Keal Harry's and Hakeem Butlers of the world. Had me scared to death to draft Ceedee, so I took Akers.

[ThunderTung]

Not to turn this discussion into a debate on that- that’s exactly what I’m talking about. Watching some highlights to “here comes the boom” doesn’t really give you an idea
of what a guy really is like.
I have mad respect for the guys who literally watch game tape. I believe there is a website that gives you all of the plays a particular player played in

Happen to have a link to this website?

Yeah, I'd pay for that. Would definitely keep me from drafting the N'Keal Harry's and Hakeem Butlers of the world. Had me scared to death to draft Ceedee, so I took Akers.

i always compound highlight videos with listening to others do film breakdowns, as well as just my instincts. I was so confident in Lamb, i took him at 2 lmao

[Ice]

Tried to like him when I evaluated him as a rookie. He flat had zero separation ability. Don't see him ever being a NFL quality WR.

Good luck but IMO he is wasting roster space.

[Jigga94]

Signed to Carolina practice squad

[Mjvb5]

Signed to Carolina practice squad

At least he's kinda on a team but this is almost worst case scenario. Unless someone eventually claims him off there, if they eventually promote him. It's a deep core in a lower volume offense

[bjd5211]

Let's talk... about anyone but Hakeem Butler.

[Sriracha]

1) What analytics were speaking against Butler? Breakout age? Only 1 year of production? (Both?)

- Redshirt at Iowa State (not Bama or OSU...not a particularly strong football school)
- Didn't command targets until his 3rd year at that same school
- Older prospect / late breakout

But let's be honest, Butler's fall in the draft saved fantasy owners, because a guy that was being talked about as a 1st rounder fell deep into the 2nd or even 3rd (contingent on league type of course). Taking a flier on Butler there won't kill your team nearly as much as Treadwell, Doctson and maybe, just maybe Harry.

This year, I had no issues taking a flier on Aiyuk in the late 2nd (2QB) over Shenault/Edwards. But even though people will point towards Aiyuk's "late breakout"...he was good in Junior College and was good at ASU...let alone he's dynamic with the ball in his hands...something that guys like Treadwell, Doctson, DGB, Butler just aren't.

Perfect example of when to use analytics to your advantage, and when there are reasons to ignore it.

Van Jefferson is another outlier. Had to compete for targets with AJB an DK at Ole Miss, then transferred to one of the worst passing offenses in NCAAF.

I have no idea if Aiyuk or Jefferson are going to pan out in the NFL; but I'm much more optimistic about them than I was about Kevin White and Hakeem Butler.

[OhCruelestRanter]

1) What analytics were speaking against Butler? Breakout age? Only 1 year of production? (Both?)

- Redshirt at Iowa State (not Bama or OSU...not a particularly strong football school)
- Didn't command targets until his 3rd year at that same school
- Older prospect / late breakout

But let's be honest, Butler's fall in the draft saved fantasy owners, because a guy that was being talked about as a 1st rounder fell deep into the 2nd or even 3rd (contingent on league type of course). Taking a flier on Butler there won't kill your team nearly as much as Treadwell, Doctson and maybe, just maybe Harry.

This year, I had no issues taking a flier on Aiyuk in the late 2nd (2QB) over Shenault/Edwards. But even though people will point towards Aiyuk's "late breakout"...he was good in Junior College and was good at ASU...let alone he's dynamic with the ball in his hands...something that guys like Treadwell, Doctson, DGB, Butler just aren't.

Perfect example of when to use analytics to your advantage, and when there are reasons to ignore it.

Van Jefferson is another outlier. Had to compete for targets with AJB an DK at Ole Miss, then transferred to one of the worst passing offenses in NCAAF.

I have no idea if Aiyuk or Jefferson are going to pan out in the NFL; but I'm much more optimistic about them than I was about Kevin White and Hakeem Butler.

Yeah- the really tangible benefit of an analytic approach is that you understand when and why you're more likely to miss. Aiyuk was on the same team as Harry and Harry was better. That's not particularly encouraging for a guy who was a later breakout, it's not like he was pushed out by Julio Jones here. I still ended up with a share, but it was after Shenault, Higgins, Pittman, Moss, and Vaughn(!) were gone. At least he'll have opportunity with Deebo out.

Regarding Van Jefferson, the thing about Ole Miss sort of makes sense, but I also would've liked him to just be better at Florida as a 22 and 23 year old than he was. I don't really gamble on guys like this, but I can at least squint and see it, and you don't have to use real draft capital to get him.

Edwards isn't really an analytic darling, despite the exceptional breakout age and dominator rating. His status as a senior is a red flag, and his third round draft capital matters. I like him, but his profile (even his size) is remarkably similar to two other seniors who didn't live up to their early breakouts and high dominator ratings: Jordan Matthews and Corey Davis.

[sloth8u]

I liked Butler quite a bit comming out. I learned years ago that it's tough for guys to win me leagues without being on an active roster....

[I-ROK]

- Redshirt at Iowa State (not Bama or OSU...not a particularly strong football school)
- Didn't command targets until his 3rd year at that same school
- Older prospect / late breakout

But let's be honest, Butler's fall in the draft saved fantasy owners, because a guy that was being talked about as a 1st rounder fell deep into the 2nd or even 3rd (contingent on league type of course). Taking a flier on Butler there won't kill your team nearly as much as Treadwell, Doctson and maybe, just maybe Harry.

This year, I had no issues taking a flier on Aiyuk in the late 2nd (2QB) over Shenault/Edwards. But even though people will point towards Aiyuk's "late breakout"...he was good in Junior College and was good at ASU...let alone he's dynamic with the ball in his hands...something that guys like Treadwell, Doctson, DGB, Butler just aren't.

Perfect example of when to use analytics to your advantage, and when there are reasons to ignore it.

Van Jefferson is another outlier. Had to compete for targets with AJB an DK at Ole Miss, then transferred to one of the worst passing offenses in NCAAF.

I have no idea if Aiyuk or Jefferson are going to pan out in the NFL; but I'm much more optimistic about them than I was about Kevin White and Hakeem Butler.

Yeah- the really tangible benefit of an analytic approach is that you understand when and why you're more likely to miss. Aiyuk was on the same team as Harry and Harry was better. That's not particularly encouraging for a guy who was a later breakout, it's not like he was pushed out by Julio Jones here. I still ended up with a share, but it was after Shenault, Higgins, Pittman, Moss, and Vaughn(!) were gone. At least he'll have opportunity with Deebo out.

Regarding Van Jefferson, the thing about Ole Miss sort of makes sense, but I also would've liked him to just be better at Florida as a 22 and 23 year old than he was. I don't really gamble on guys like this, but I can at least squint and see it, and you don't have to use real draft capital to get him.

Edwards isn't really an analytic darling, despite the exceptional breakout age and dominator rating. His status as a senior is a red flag, and his third round draft capital matters. I like him, but his profile (even his size) is remarkably similar to two other seniors who didn't live up to their early breakouts and high dominator ratings: Jordan Matthews and Corey Davis.

This!