OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑
Mon May 18, 2020 1:53 pm
mgscott wrote: ↑
Mon May 18, 2020 12:26 pm
All I'm trying to say is that it is much easier for him to pass, whether in or out of the pocket, due to his run threat ability. Defenses play on their heels, provide less pressure, and usually have do devote at least on pass defender to spying him due to the run threat. He greatly improved his accuracy this past year and it showed. He also had great protection. I just don't see them going away from a run-oriented offense that was so successful. That success allowed him to pass so effectively with his improved accuracy.
I was linking them drafting a RB to indicate they will continue to be run-heavy, not that they will run Lamar more. Not sure where you got that. I think they plan to continue to run a lot, but would like the RBs to get more of the carries than Lamar, to reduce his exposure to hits.
I'm not trying to come off as bashing Lamar. Just stating that his passing efficiency is highly correlated to his run ability and how defenses have to play him vs most other QBs. I think he is an elite QB, just not an elite passer.
Lamar, relative to his age and experience, is an elite passer. What you're talking about, that his passing efficiency is correlated to the threat of his running ability even when he's not running
is not only true, but I'll go further: it's true for every QB. Even somebody on the complete opposite end of the spectrum like Brady- his ability as a passer is limited
by the fact the defenses can essentially ignore the idea of him taking off and running.
The problem is that you can't actually separate Lamar's mobility from the rest of his game. I understand that in your head they seem like discrete, separate things, but in practice you really can't figure out which is which, or exactly how much of his passing success stems from his ability to run. That whole concept is either something that doesn't make sense, or something that just doesn't matter.
Back to how this relates to Brown: Baltimore threw the ball 440 times last year. A total that low has happened 13 times in the past 20 years. They did that while winning 14 games, meaning more running the clock out, something that only happened 9 times in the past 20 years. I don't really care about any of these puff pieces about what Baltimore or Lamar or Harbaugh claim to "want" to happen next year. What matters is that Baltimore's low passing output represents an outlier season that's likely due for regression toward the mean
. Brown stands to benefit from that, as well as from personal development going into his second season, and passing improvement from his 22 year old QB. I think he's a good value at his current ADP.
Normally I would agree with you on that point, but the problem is those very same arguments were brought up this time last year when we were all trying to project Lamar's 2019 season based on how he finished 2018. I was firmly in the "no way Lamar runs that much" camp and man was I wrong. I'm not going to bet against that happening again. I don't know why anybody would bet against that since he has done that every game in the league.
I think this entire offense is an outlier in general right now and I don't think it will change until they start struggling consistently. Even if they don't win 14 games, as long as they are within a score or 2, they don't have to alter their offense. Their team is good enough on both sides of the ball that they shouldn't be getting in a position to be in a negative game script all the time.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DB: B. Baker
Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins
Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring