Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon May 18, 2020 9:36 am

mgscott wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:52 am
Lamar has already improved as a passer, but he is still no way near an above average passer in the pocket. The Ravens are smartly using his abilities to the fullest and created an offensive scheme to capitalize on his strengths. He will most likely continue to improve as a passer, but will likely never be an elite passer from the pocket. it's not his game. If you want to use drafting another receiver as an argument they will pass more, how do you interpret them drafting another RB? Lastly, with all of the success they had last year with a run-heavy, RPO scheme, why would they try to pass more? Why go away from what is working?
1. He averaged 8.6 ypa and was PFF’s highest graded passer on plays in the pocket. But okay.

2. These are all ridiculous straw man arguments. Nobody is suggesting that Baltimore will go out there and tell Lamar to stand still. I’m literally just suggesting that he’ll throw the ball forward more times per game than he did last year, and that his current career trajectory suggests he’ll get better at doing so.

3. Again, I don’t know what you’re implying, but I have a hard time linking “drafting a RB” with “the QB will get more carries.” If that’s your take, well, cool.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby bjd5211 » Mon May 18, 2020 9:42 am

Drafting a RB means nothing other than Ingram is getting older and approaching the end of his contract, so Baltimore is doing the smart thing and addressing needs in advance before they actually become needs and they are forced into addressing it.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mgscott » Mon May 18, 2020 12:26 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:36 am
mgscott wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:52 am
Lamar has already improved as a passer, but he is still no way near an above average passer in the pocket. The Ravens are smartly using his abilities to the fullest and created an offensive scheme to capitalize on his strengths. He will most likely continue to improve as a passer, but will likely never be an elite passer from the pocket. it's not his game. If you want to use drafting another receiver as an argument they will pass more, how do you interpret them drafting another RB? Lastly, with all of the success they had last year with a run-heavy, RPO scheme, why would they try to pass more? Why go away from what is working?
1. He averaged 8.6 ypa and was PFF’s highest graded passer on plays in the pocket. But okay.

2. These are all ridiculous straw man arguments. Nobody is suggesting that Baltimore will go out there and tell Lamar to stand still. I’m literally just suggesting that he’ll throw the ball forward more times per game than he did last year, and that his current career trajectory suggests he’ll get better at doing so.

3. Again, I don’t know what you’re implying, but I have a hard time linking “drafting a RB” with “the QB will get more carries.” If that’s your take, well, cool.
All I'm trying to say is that it is much easier for him to pass, whether in or out of the pocket, due to his run threat ability. Defenses play on their heels, provide less pressure, and usually have do devote at least on pass defender to spying him due to the run threat. He greatly improved his accuracy this past year and it showed. He also had great protection. I just don't see them going away from a run-oriented offense that was so successful. That success allowed him to pass so effectively with his improved accuracy.

I was linking them drafting a RB to indicate they will continue to be run-heavy, not that they will run Lamar more. Not sure where you got that. I think they plan to continue to run a lot, but would like the RBs to get more of the carries than Lamar, to reduce his exposure to hits.

I'm not trying to come off as bashing Lamar. Just stating that his passing efficiency is highly correlated to his run ability and how defenses have to play him vs most other QBs. I think he is an elite QB, just not an elite passer.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Mon May 18, 2020 1:53 pm

mgscott wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 12:26 pm
All I'm trying to say is that it is much easier for him to pass, whether in or out of the pocket, due to his run threat ability. Defenses play on their heels, provide less pressure, and usually have do devote at least on pass defender to spying him due to the run threat. He greatly improved his accuracy this past year and it showed. He also had great protection. I just don't see them going away from a run-oriented offense that was so successful. That success allowed him to pass so effectively with his improved accuracy.

I was linking them drafting a RB to indicate they will continue to be run-heavy, not that they will run Lamar more. Not sure where you got that. I think they plan to continue to run a lot, but would like the RBs to get more of the carries than Lamar, to reduce his exposure to hits.

I'm not trying to come off as bashing Lamar. Just stating that his passing efficiency is highly correlated to his run ability and how defenses have to play him vs most other QBs. I think he is an elite QB, just not an elite passer.
Lamar, relative to his age and experience, is an elite passer. What you're talking about, that his passing efficiency is correlated to the threat of his running ability even when he's not running is not only true, but I'll go further: it's true for every QB. Even somebody on the complete opposite end of the spectrum like Brady- his ability as a passer is limited by the fact the defenses can essentially ignore the idea of him taking off and running.

The problem is that you can't actually separate Lamar's mobility from the rest of his game. I understand that in your head they seem like discrete, separate things, but in practice you really can't figure out which is which, or exactly how much of his passing success stems from his ability to run. That whole concept is either something that doesn't make sense, or something that just doesn't matter.

Back to how this relates to Brown: Baltimore threw the ball 440 times last year. A total that low has happened 13 times in the past 20 years. They did that while winning 14 games, meaning more running the clock out, something that only happened 9 times in the past 20 years. I don't really care about any of these puff pieces about what Baltimore or Lamar or Harbaugh claim to "want" to happen next year. What matters is that Baltimore's low passing output represents an outlier season that's likely due for regression toward the mean. Brown stands to benefit from that, as well as from personal development going into his second season, and passing improvement from his 22 year old QB. I think he's a good value at his current ADP.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jenkins.math » Mon May 18, 2020 3:25 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:53 pm
mgscott wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 12:26 pm
All I'm trying to say is that it is much easier for him to pass, whether in or out of the pocket, due to his run threat ability. Defenses play on their heels, provide less pressure, and usually have do devote at least on pass defender to spying him due to the run threat. He greatly improved his accuracy this past year and it showed. He also had great protection. I just don't see them going away from a run-oriented offense that was so successful. That success allowed him to pass so effectively with his improved accuracy.

I was linking them drafting a RB to indicate they will continue to be run-heavy, not that they will run Lamar more. Not sure where you got that. I think they plan to continue to run a lot, but would like the RBs to get more of the carries than Lamar, to reduce his exposure to hits.

I'm not trying to come off as bashing Lamar. Just stating that his passing efficiency is highly correlated to his run ability and how defenses have to play him vs most other QBs. I think he is an elite QB, just not an elite passer.
Lamar, relative to his age and experience, is an elite passer. What you're talking about, that his passing efficiency is correlated to the threat of his running ability even when he's not running is not only true, but I'll go further: it's true for every QB. Even somebody on the complete opposite end of the spectrum like Brady- his ability as a passer is limited by the fact the defenses can essentially ignore the idea of him taking off and running.

The problem is that you can't actually separate Lamar's mobility from the rest of his game. I understand that in your head they seem like discrete, separate things, but in practice you really can't figure out which is which, or exactly how much of his passing success stems from his ability to run. That whole concept is either something that doesn't make sense, or something that just doesn't matter.

Back to how this relates to Brown: Baltimore threw the ball 440 times last year. A total that low has happened 13 times in the past 20 years. They did that while winning 14 games, meaning more running the clock out, something that only happened 9 times in the past 20 years. I don't really care about any of these puff pieces about what Baltimore or Lamar or Harbaugh claim to "want" to happen next year. What matters is that Baltimore's low passing output represents an outlier season that's likely due for regression toward the mean. Brown stands to benefit from that, as well as from personal development going into his second season, and passing improvement from his 22 year old QB. I think he's a good value at his current ADP.
Normally I would agree with you on that point, but the problem is those very same arguments were brought up this time last year when we were all trying to project Lamar's 2019 season based on how he finished 2018. I was firmly in the "no way Lamar runs that much" camp and man was I wrong. I'm not going to bet against that happening again. I don't know why anybody would bet against that since he has done that every game in the league.

I think this entire offense is an outlier in general right now and I don't think it will change until they start struggling consistently. Even if they don't win 14 games, as long as they are within a score or 2, they don't have to alter their offense. Their team is good enough on both sides of the ball that they shouldn't be getting in a position to be in a negative game script all the time.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Patsfan86 » Mon May 18, 2020 3:39 pm

Ill never get some of the overthinking done of these pages. Watch games. Lamar looked great at both passing and running, but he wasnt as good of a passer, he will work on that and get better because its what he does. When Brown flashed it was more like a nuclear flash for a rookie, thats all we ask from rookies is to flash, he will be better that that. Im gonna be accused of simplifying this for sure but its how i see things. 2020 Lamar gets better as a passer leading to something like a 60-1000-8 Td season from Brown.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 18, 2020 3:52 pm

Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 3:39 pm
Ill never get some of the overthinking done of these pages. Watch games. Lamar looked great at both passing and running, but he wasnt as good of a passer, he will work on that and get better because its what he does. When Brown flashed it was more like a nuclear flash for a rookie, thats all we ask from rookies is to flash, he will be better that that. Im gonna be accused of simplifying this for sure but its how i see things. 2020 Lamar gets better as a passer leading to something like a 60-1000-8 Td season from Brown.
I could pretty easily see a stat line like that for Brown; and it wouldn't even require Lamar to get significantly better as a passer. When you're as good as him at escaping the pocket and buying time you don't need to be as accurate. We see this a lot in the NFL, where players like Big Ben will finish year after year as inaccurate but still be highly productive. Being able to buy time in the pocket allows your receivers more time to break free, and get down the field for higher calorie targets.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm

I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm

Ice wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Mon May 18, 2020 7:45 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 3:02 pm
Seriously, take your Ravens glasses off for a second and really look at it. What makes Lamar special is his legs. Take those away and he is a below average starter in this league.
Seems like lots of people have made the points I wanted to make, so all I'll add is this:

1. I'm not a Ravens fan, but I'm definitely watching more of their games than the god-forsaken Giants.

2. The blueprint according to the TEN BAL playoff game is to essentially play "Engage 8" on defense, and force Lamar to pass and/or escape on every play.

So. Being that the last thing we saw work against Baltimore was an all out blitz on every play - do you -not- think defenses will be attempting this once more, to stop his scrambling and force Lamar to pass?

His stat-line in a game he was forced to throw 59 times: 31/59 for 365 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTS, and 20 carries for 143 yards. Good for a 28 point day in fantasy. Even when he is BAD he is still GOOD. Lamar "might not scare you" if he's throwing instead of running. But from a fantasy perspective, it's still going to work. Reminder: we are here because we play fantasy.

The Ravens were an historic outlier last year for pass attempts. It is reasonable to project more pass attempts. It is reasonable to project that teams will attempt to stop him on the ground more (which is, yes, still linked to his legs) like how Tennessee did. It is reasonable to project that they -might not- win 14 games this year, and will be forced into more competitive 4th quarter situations. It is reasonable to project that Lamar will be a better pro in year 3 than year 2, despite how insane year 2 looked.

When you do the math, and add all that up - then we can return to our original thesis statement: a now healthy Hollywood Brown is still one of the best values in fantasy right now.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Tue May 19, 2020 11:31 am

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.
Not sure what you are looking at but last season. His completion percentage was easily top 1/2 of the league.

Russell Wilson 66.1 Completion Percentage
Lamar Jackson 66.1 Completion Percentage
P. Mahomes 65.9 Completion Percentage

He also finished 3rd in QBR rating. He didn't win MVP because he could just run the ball.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?sea ... ortOrder=0

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?sea ... ortOrder=0
The clock is running and there are no timeouts

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby bjd5211 » Tue May 19, 2020 11:41 am

Ice wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 11:31 am
IZigUZag wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.
Not sure what you are looking at but last season. His completion percentage was easily top 1/2 of the league.

Russell Wilson 66.1 Completion Percentage
Lamar Jackson 66.1 Completion Percentage
P. Mahomes 65.9 Completion Percentage

He also finished 3rd in QBR rating. He didn't win MVP because he could just run the ball.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?sea ... ortOrder=0

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?sea ... ortOrder=0
He was 8th in the league in completion percentage
3rd in Passer Rating
And 1st in QB Rating

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue May 19, 2020 1:54 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.
Yeah, the word “finished” implies that this was measured in some capacity. Do you mind sharing the data?
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Sriracha » Tue May 19, 2020 3:53 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:54 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm
Ice wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
I guess it is easy to think Lamar's passing is weak compared to his running but the reality is Only Lamar and Big Ben (2007) have had 2 games with perfect passer ratings in the same season in NFL history.

The leader in the history of the league is Manning and Big Ben with 4 total game with a perfect passing rating. Only 7 QB's in history have had multiple games like this. Being tied with Tom Brady at 2 isn't bad.

It could be scary how good this player could become; He certainly should improve as he matures.

Lamar is a special talent. M. Brown could put up outstanding numbers with this QB as they grow together.
From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.
Yeah, the word “finished” implies that this was measured in some capacity. Do you mind sharing the data?
Ok, I'm not sure where I heard this, or it's just my faulty memory. In anycase, My bad. :oops: He was 2nd to last in last year's PFF's annual accuracy ratings (which mostly tracks ball location), but his ball placement jumped all the way to 15th this season! Still not amazing, but much better than I thought. :thumbup:

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue May 19, 2020 6:02 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:53 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:54 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 4:13 pm


From a pure accuracy stand point he still finished in the bottom 5 of NFL QB's (Josh Allen was even worse).. but like I said, he can get away with this fault because of his elusiveness in the pocket. How much he can improve as a passer remains to be seen, but even if he's near his ceiling he'll remain an elite QB until his wheels fall off, or he gets banged up.
Yeah, the word “finished” implies that this was measured in some capacity. Do you mind sharing the data?
Ok, I'm not sure where I heard this, or it's just my faulty memory. In anycase, My bad. :oops: He was 2nd to last in last year's PFF's annual accuracy ratings (which mostly tracks ball location), but his ball placement jumped all the way to 15th this season! Still not amazing, but much better than I thought. :thumbup:
No worries. You deserve credit for admitting you were wrong; as opposed to moving the goalposts, ignoring some criticism while cherry-picking others that you think you can defend yourself against more easily, and claiming that you welcome and enjoy the criticism you’re so obviously wounded by.

Thanks for not being that guy. I don’t always agree with your points, but I generally enjoy the way you make them.
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