Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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ArrylT
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:14 am

Going off of the comments (on his ADP) in the June ADP Observation threads - it does seem like Marquise Brown remains a potential value target in rookie drafts.

It will really depend on your league of course - I have seen Marquise Brown go as early as 1.02 - but he does tend to go in the 1.09-1.13 range most frequently.

Anyways I think it is pretty obvious that his injury delaying him from getting on the field - and thus no means to generate positive hype - means that his cost in rookie drafts will remain lower that it may warrant. And of course situation is going to be a factor.

For example this article projects a 10% chance at a WR1 season in Year I.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... ise-brown/

Personally I think that may even be optimistic - not due to talent or situation - just due to the # of WRs who seem much more likely to be WR1s (reminder we are talking 2019 only).

However it serves to illustrate a point - and that is a lot of owners still want immediate returns - and Marquise Brown is not generating any noise to suggest that there will be any.

Nonetheless, even that article shows that the writers feel he may provide a great return on investment - eventually.

" With comparisons like Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson, Brown could have IMMENSE value later in his career, even as early as 2020; however in 2019, it would appear that a back-end WR2 season is his ceiling, and for a 14th round pick, that isn’t a bad deal at all."

Will close out with one potential bit of good news:

https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-rave ... -more.html
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm

Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Winston(TB)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI HOU
[rookie] NHarry(NE)Haskins(WAS)
DSwift(DET)Ruggs(NV)Jefferson(MIN)

2 1sts - 2021's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:49 pm

I assume it is situation.
I would be all over him at his ADP if I had rookie picks.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:57 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:49 pm
I assume it is situation.
I would be all over him at his ADP if I had rookie picks.
With the perceived hype over the 2020 class if he us there around 2.05 or so you could probably get him for a 2020 2nd no problem
QB - DWatson(HOU)Minshew(JAX)Winston(TB)
RB -NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)JTaylor(IND)Gurley(ATL)
WR -ACooper(DAL)CGodwin(TB)OBJ(CLE)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Crosby(GB)
Def - ARI HOU
[rookie] NHarry(NE)Haskins(WAS)
DSwift(DET)Ruggs(NV)Jefferson(MIN)

2 1sts - 2021's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:05 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
A lot of people make decisions based on a landing spot. If Brown was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, he's a Top 3 pick. Still, Brown was the 1st WR off the board, the best WR in the Big 12 last year, and is the best route runner and separator in this class.

But, hey...Mecole Hardman! Now that guy is good! He got drafted by the Chiefs! Who cares that he didn't even total 1000 yards for his career in college!

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:07 pm

...is he really falling to 2.05?

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:09 pm

Phaded wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:49 pm
I assume it is situation.
I would be all over him at his ADP if I had rookie picks.
The value is fantastic right now. Just let narratives drive the draft and take the top WR talent in the 2nd round.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:12 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:05 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
A lot of people make decisions based on a landing spot. If Brown was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, he's a Top 3 pick. Still, Brown was the 1st WR off the board, the best WR in the Big 12 last year, and is the best route runner and separator in this class.

But, hey...Mecole Hardman! Now that guy is good! He got drafted by the Chiefs! Who cares that he didn't even total 1000 yards for his career in college!
Completely agree. Hardman looks like a slightly better prospect now that Godwin and Ridley are both likely to make an NFL roster... but it's still not a very compelling case for going ahead of a receiver like Hollywood.

The exuberance around situation in FF is downright ridiculous, sometimes. Especially at WR. No amount of QB or offense is going to help a receiver that isn't good hold value for more than short spurts. This kind of logic pushing up receivers like Geronimo Allison for instance, might get you one usable season out of them. Or he could lose the camp battle to Jake Kumerow, MVS, or EQSB. That's the problem when you're not a standalone talent, you're liable to get replaced.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:15 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:12 pm
Completely agree. Hardman looks like a slightly better prospect now that Godwin and Ridley are both likely to make an NFL roster... but it's still not a very compelling case for going ahead of a receiver like Hollywood.

The exuberance around situation in FF is downright ridiculous, sometimes. Especially at WR. No amount of QB or offense is going to help a receiver that isn't good hold value for more than short spurts. This kind of logic pushing up receivers like Geronimo Allison for instance, might get you one usable season out of them. Or he could lose the camp battle to Jake Kumerow, MVS, or EQSB. That's the problem when you're not a standalone talent, you're liable to get replaced.
Bingo. Situation is good for a tiebreaker when you have two even talents, but launching average at best players over good ones makes no sense.

Brown is the best big play threat, separator and route runner in this class. I'm not sure everyone cares about stuff like that, but it's worth noting. Like I said, continue to get the 1st WR drafted in the 2nd round after someone takes Hakeem Butler and a 4th round RB before him.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:30 pm

M. Brown’s is my 2nd rated WR in this class. Drafted him 1.4 in a money league with confidence after the NFL draft and took him 1.3 in a Draft here before the NFL draft.

Don’t really care where he is going now in drafts by the masses. He has all the tools to be a stud within a couple of years. He is a top 5 talent in this class.

Superior speed, beats press with ease, can run routes and can catch.

There are only a handful of DB’s in the NFL that will be able to cover him and they won’t win every time.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:39 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
No, he'd be the clear cut 1.01 for me.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:40 pm

Ice wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:30 pm
M. Brown’s is my 2nd rated WR in this class. Drafted him 1.4 in a money league with confidence after the NFL draft and took him 1.3 in a Draft here before the NFL draft.

Don’t really care where he is going now in drafts by the masses. He has all the tools to be a stud within a couple of years. He is a top 5 talent in this class.

Superior speed, beats press with ease, can run routes and can catch.

There are only a handful of DB’s in the NFL that will be able to cover him and they won’t win every time.
Why not trade back and accrue more value?

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:26 pm

MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?
There are those who are scoffing at ppl taking him in the 2nd round, which I think is just... ludicrous.

1) Size and athleticism.

Fact is, he's small and there's not a great track record for players of his size in general. However, players taken highly in the draft at his size actually have a pretty good track record. DJax being the closest comp. From an athleticism standpoint, by all accounts he is pretty athletic, or at least fast. However he was injured and missed the combine and pro days (which i'm sure reminds many of John Ross, who so far has busted pretty hard) so we'll never know just how athletic Brown is.

2) Situation and Skill set.

People see the Ravens as a bad situation, and to some extent it is. Lamar Jackson has yet to prove he is a capable thrower. However the counter to that is the Ravens have nobody else to throw to. So even if they don't throw a lot, he should still see a good amount of targets.

I have not really watched film on Brown so i'm just going by what is said about him that he is a really good route runner and all of that. Now from a skill set standpoint, people are down on him because he is a "deep threat" and Lamar is not a proven thrower and a weakness of his is probably throwing down-field. The counter to that is if Brown is an excellent route runner then I'm sure the Ravens would use him all over the field, lots of short-intermediate throws, just getting the ball in his hands... think Keke Coutee+ or something.

Lamar Jackson could improve, and if so, great. If he doesn't, then the Ravens will replace him with someone better. Either way, the situation as-is doesn't have to be a lifetime thing.


I really like Marquise as a late-1st type of value in this class because of his supposed route-running ability and the fact that he'll be the main target on that offense. But if I can kick the can down the road for a 2020 1st or something similar then i'm probably doing it, because of the reasons i listed above.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby JFever » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:29 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:39 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
No, he'd be the clear cut 1.01 for me.
Easy 1.01 if Hollywood went To ANY type of a perceived good landing spot. So many preach talent over situation but many are still sucked into overvaluing landing spot every year.

In my opinion, Jacobs going 1.01 is much to do with situation. I don’t see him as a stand out talent in the nfl.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:40 pm

JFever wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:29 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:39 pm
MrUbuto wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Is the marquise brown uninterest just based o situation?

If marquise went to KC back when it looked like three was going to be gone for significant time he's the 1.2 behind Jacobs right?
No, he'd be the clear cut 1.01 for me.
Easy 1.01 if Hollywood went To ANY type of a perceived good landing spot. So many preach talent over situation but many are still sucked into overvaluing landing spot every year.

In my opinion, Jacobs going 1.01 is much to do with situation. I don’t see him as a stand out talent in the nfl.
Neither do I but I think he's a good athlete with a solid skillset and is about to get a big workload that boosts his overall numbers, even if the efficiency isn't there. I have a lot of high picks and therefore a lot of Jacobs shares, I look at him more as an investment than a building block. I want him to play well and "prove" he's worth the high pick and become a top RB asset, and then trade him for more picks or players next year to acquire guys I believe in more long-term.

As for Brown I love his slide so I can get him in the 2nd along with all my Harry and Jacobs shares early on.


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