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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 2:38 pm
by FantasyFreak
@Ice, When I was making jokes about your receivers going to the Ravens you dreaded the idea. I think it's a bad spot for a WR, sorry. I don't think there is a ton of passing volume, and I don't think Lamar is capable of being a productive passer in the NFL. We shall see, but regardless of what they are trying to do, I don't think it's a good spot for a Fantasy WR. Just my opinion.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 3:34 pm
by Ice
FantasyFreak wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:38 pm
@Ice, When I was making jokes about your receivers going to the Ravens you dreaded the idea. I think it's a bad spot for a WR, sorry. I don't think there is a ton of passing volume, and I don't think Lamar is capable of being a productive passer in the NFL. We shall see, but regardless of what they are trying to do, I don't think it's a good spot for a Fantasy WR. Just my opinion.
I get what you are saying. In fact I wasn't real happy he landed in Baltimore either on night 1. I was however, much happier when they drafted 6'4 4.42 Boykin in the 3rd to stretch the field and then turned around and drafted 4.4 Justice Hill in the 4th who flashed passing catching talent with 31 receptions in 2017 out of the backfield.

These two selections brought into focus the plans the Ravens have in the passing game and shows the importance of speed on offense.

Of course I would have loved him to go to the pass happy Steelers, Chiefs, or the Colts but that wasn't happening given The Steelers need at LB and lack of a 1st for the Chiefs. I am thankful he didn't go to the Titans as their coaching staff and philosophy is not close to Harbaugh and the Ravens over time. We will never know if the Colts traded out because he was off the board at their pick.

No question L. Jackson has a ways to go but once analyzed I think he landed in a spot that will showcase his phenomenal speed and quickness. Jackson will have to develop and the Raven have provided tools to do just that.

Given this is Dynasty and he is my 2nd rated WR I am not going waver on the pick when I have a chance to get him. I did pick him up at 1.8 in one of my leagues as the 3rd WR off the board behind Harry and DK and intend to pick him up at 1.5 for sure in a draft if he doesn't get drafted at 1.3 since I control the board in that league. You already know I had him rated 1.3 in our early bird draft prior to the NFL draft.

His talent is not in question at the NFL level and I am sure many teams had a first round grade on him just like the majority of scouts did. Brown's skill set is extremely rare which is one reason we did not hear that this player was a reach by anyone.

Fantasy is something else and I do respect your opinion its just that I disagree with you regarding this players impact in fantasy.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 3:38 pm
by Blueboy
Agree with Ice here. The Ravens offense is clearly asking us to look ahead, and generously foreshadowing their intentions.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 3:45 pm
by mild
JFever wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 1:26 pm
The Ravens lead receiver could be a group of TE's. lol. I get what your trying to say but, the TE is a big deal in that offense for whatever reason.
Just to be clear - "whatever reason" is because the Ravens force teams to bite on the running game the majority of the time. Lamar's best targeted area of the field is over the middle as a result - because the TE's get free releases off the line as the LB's crunch down to stop the run.

The big winner, to me, of this draft is Lamar - and that all of their selections are potential Zone-busters. The Chargers game plan of using 6+ DB's and hanging in a zone completely stifled Lamar, both as a passer and a rusher - so I see these choices as direct results of that game. If the speed of Hollywood, Boykin, and Hill can force teams back into more traditional Man defenses... well, then now you're talking about defenders turning their backs to Lamar... and we all know how that goes.

It may not work. It probably won't even matter in an NFL sense (anyone who has examined the Ravens 1st-rank schedule this year will agree) - I expect this to be a season of growing pains. But I'm excited that they are all-in on Lamar's offensive development this year. And at the very least? It is going to be riveting TV.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 3:48 pm
by Jigga94
mild wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:45 pm
JFever wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 1:26 pm
The Ravens lead receiver could be a group of TE's. lol. I get what your trying to say but, the TE is a big deal in that offense for whatever reason.
Just to be clear - "whatever reason" is because the Ravens force teams to bite on the running game the majority of the time. Lamar's best targeted area of the field is over the middle as a result - because the TE's get free releases off the line as the LB's crunch down to stop the run.

The big winner, to me, of this draft is Lamar - and that all of their selections are potential Zone-busters. The Chargers game plan of using 6+ DB's and hanging in a zone completely stifled Lamar, both as a passer and a rusher - so I see these choices as direct results of that game. If the speed of Hollywood, Boykin, and Hill can force teams back into more traditional Man defenses... well, then now you're talking about defenders turning their backs to Lamar... and we all know how that goes.

It may not work. It probably won't even matter in an NFL sense (anyone who has examined the Ravens 1st-rank schedule this year will agree) - I expect this to be a season of growing pains. But I'm excited that they are all-in on Lamar this year. At the very least? It is going to be riveting TV.
I thought I read somewhere that the Ravens schedule was very "fair" as in very balanced. Either way, the rookies and 2nd year QB have a lot ahead of them.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 4:16 pm
by jenkins.math
I get what the Ravens are trying to do, but that doesn't mean it's going to work out. Lamar has a long way to go as a passer. You can have the best scheme in the world, but if your QB can't make the throws consistently the weapons become irrelevant.

I find it interesting how excited people suddenly are on the Ravens offense when the biggest question mark about their offense is the QB's ability to pass the ball.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 4:25 pm
by mild
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:48 pm
I thought I read somewhere that the Ravens schedule was very "fair" as in very balanced. Either way, the rookies and 2nd year QB have a lot ahead of them.
Whatup brother Jigga :) Always nice to see you.

Lets do this together then, because I went through this with my Ravens fan friend and we were absolutely terrified. There don't appear to be many "gimme" games, and it has a few BRUTAL runs in my humble opinion. It is a 1st place schedule thanks to them winning the North, and I truly believe that when the Ravens saw it, that influenced them going all-in on a developmental year for the offense / to match up with all the track meet games they may find themselves in now.

Remember - they literally lost all of their LB's. This is not the 2018 Ravens D.

Week 1 @Miami Dolphins - warm up game. Lovely! Easy W
Week 2 Arizona Cardinals - fun game, could be a track meet. Slight edge to Ravens, but Cards will be much improved... W
Week 3 @ Kansas City Chiefs - full track meet game, defense lost too much to be a repeat of last season - L
Week 4 Cleveland Browns - Browns are a juggernaught now, probable L
Week 5 @Pittsburgh Steelers - 50/50 game, lets say they split the series with home wins so L
Week 6 Cincinnati Bengals - Probable W
Week 7 @ Seattle Seahawks - Probable L
Week 8 BYE
Week 9 New England Patriots - Probable L
Week 10 @ Cincinnati Bengals - Probable W
Week 11 Houston Texans - Awesome game if everyone's still healthy, I would pick the T's so L
Week 12 @ Los Angeles Rams - Slugfest, probable L
Week 13 San Francisco 49ers - 50/50 game, if 49ers are as improved as I think they might be, probable L
Week 14 @ Buffalo Bills - Sneaky trap game, but lets say W
Week 15 New York Jets - will be much improved, could very well be an L but lets say W
Week 16 @ Cleveland Browns - probable L
Week 17 Pittsburgh Steelers - split series so W

So that would be 7-9, and would presume they take care of business in the few "easy" games they do have. Injuries will obviously shape this and the hindsight on this post will no doubt be wonderful... but with the rise of the Browns, and the Steelers always competent - I see the AFC North as a total slugout this year.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 4:41 pm
by Cameron Giles
Baltimore is a bad landing spot, but I'll say this about Jackson:

https://twitter.com/JReidNFL/status/1125915509269106688

His best throws are when WR's and TE's are WIDE open and it's not even close. He's not accurate enough to throw into really tight windows, or to throw players open. And, you wouldn't want him throwing up 50/50 balls either. So, while Jackson develops as a passer, you need to find players who excel at getting open.

So, it's not a coincidence that Baltimore selected arguably the best player in this class at getting open quickly in Brown, who gets open at every level of the field.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's obviously not an ideal landing spot, but with the opportunity available and how well the skillset fits with Jackson, it may sneak up on you.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 4:59 pm
by ArrylT
ArrylT wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm

Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
I mentioned this above earlier.

Now I personally am fully on-board with the idea that the Ravens have a plan to develop Lamar Jackson & their efforts to surround him with talent. That is what good organizations do. Find a guy they believe is their Franchise, and develop him & surround him with the talent that fits him best.

However we all know QBs take time to develop.

Year 2 Goff - 477 attempts
Year 2 Tribusky - 434 (pace of 496 in 16 games)
Year 2 Watson - 505 attempts
Year 2 Mariota - 451 attempts

(I listed QBs I felt all had either shortened season I or really rough year Is)

That and the past history of Harbaughs QB development of Flacco seems to suggest that the Ravens, while likely to increase their passing attempts in an effort to have a more balanced offensive approach, are unlikely to tilt the numbers from 400 to 600 in 1 year (but I am not suggesting anyone thinks that is going to happen).

So I think it all depends on ones mindset.

If you're expecting - and it does not seem like many are - the Ravens to suddenly go back to throwing 600+ times a game next year, I'd be quite surprised if they did. It could happen Year 3-4 depending on Jacksons development. I think the most probable scenario is to project a ceiling of 480-520 attempts. Assuming that Marquise Brown wins the WR1 role, and they plan to give him a WR1 share like 22-25% from the get-go, then thats a target range of 120-135.

Interestingly enough that would put MB in Keenan Allen range. Keenan Allen got 136 targets last year (26%) and came in WR12. I personally would call that the safest Year 1 max upside I could foresee from Marquise Brown - sure I could project 100-1400-12 ... ;)

Like I said thats assuming 500+ attempts, 22+% target share & Marquise Brown is fully healthy & fully immersed into the Ravens plans from Day I.

Less attempts and/or smaller target share could easily change that outcome. Lamar Jackson development not proceeding as expected (from the Ravens perspective not the hatahs) could as well - especially if the Ravens decide to reset in 2020.

So most optimistic scenario suggests potential for MB to reach high end WR2 low end WR1 if everything goes well. Others have already mentioned the more pessimistic, and possibly more realistic, scenarios.

Even 80-100 targets and a 18-20% target share Year 1 would suggest MB is on the right track.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 9:32 pm
by jordanzs
Today in a 12 team PPR league that also gives 3 bonus points to 40 yard receptions, I just snagged Marquis Brown at 2.3.

I'm happy with that value.....

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 4:43 am
by Pac_Eddy
I drafted Brown at 2.07 and his teammate Miles Boykin at 3.01 in my 0.5 ppr, 12 team rookie draft. Not a big fan of Ravens WRs, but this value is too good to pass up.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 5:49 am
by kmbryant09
ArrylT wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 4:59 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm

Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
I mentioned this above earlier.

Now I personally am fully on-board with the idea that the Ravens have a plan to develop Lamar Jackson & their efforts to surround him with talent. That is what good organizations do. Find a guy they believe is their Franchise, and develop him & surround him with the talent that fits him best.

However we all know QBs take time to develop.

Year 2 Goff - 477 attempts
Year 2 Tribusky - 434 (pace of 496 in 16 games)
Year 2 Watson - 505 attempts
Year 2 Mariota - 451 attempts

(I listed QBs I felt all had either shortened season I or really rough year Is)

That and the past history of Harbaughs QB development of Flacco seems to suggest that the Ravens, while likely to increase their passing attempts in an effort to have a more balanced offensive approach, are unlikely to tilt the numbers from 400 to 600 in 1 year (but I am not suggesting anyone thinks that is going to happen).

So I think it all depends on ones mindset.

If you're expecting - and it does not seem like many are - the Ravens to suddenly go back to throwing 600+ times a game next year, I'd be quite surprised if they did. It could happen Year 3-4 depending on Jacksons development. I think the most probable scenario is to project a ceiling of 480-520 attempts. Assuming that Marquise Brown wins the WR1 role, and they plan to give him a WR1 share like 22-25% from the get-go, then thats a target range of 120-135.

Interestingly enough that would put MB in Keenan Allen range. Keenan Allen got 136 targets last year (26%) and came in WR12. I personally would call that the safest Year 1 max upside I could foresee from Marquise Brown - sure I could project 100-1400-12 ... ;)

Like I said thats assuming 500+ attempts, 22+% target share & Marquise Brown is fully healthy & fully immersed into the Ravens plans from Day I.

Less attempts and/or smaller target share could easily change that outcome. Lamar Jackson development not proceeding as expected (from the Ravens perspective not the hatahs) could as well - especially if the Ravens decide to reset in 2020.

So most optimistic scenario suggests potential for MB to reach high end WR2 low end WR1 if everything goes well. Others have already mentioned the more pessimistic, and possibly more realistic, scenarios.

Even 80-100 targets and a 18-20% target share Year 1 would suggest MB is on the right track.
I think this is the right way to approach it, I'll give a quick shot at my best guess:

475 pass attempts
20% target share

95 targets - 55 catches (58% catch rate) / 875 yards (15.9 ypc) / 6 TDs - 151 points in my .5 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR #3 last season. I also think he'll be fairly boom-bust if the above statline holds true, so still not someone that you'd want to consistently rely on.

I think anyone *expecting* more than that in 2019 from M. Brown is going to be disappointed. And I see plenty of reason for skepticism that he can even achieve those numbers (rookie learning curve, health, Jackson's passing ability). But as the NFL game continues to shift towards more space, more speed, and more separation / mismatches, I do think there's a reasonable chance that Brown is able to develop into a Tyreek Hill type of player in the next 2 - 3 years.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 7:48 am
by Ice
kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:49 am
ArrylT wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 4:59 pm
ArrylT wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:56 pm

Flaccos attempts from his first 4 seasons:

428
499
489
542

The Ravens did not consistently go over 550 attempts until his 6th season and forward.

I do not think it is fair to compare a Sophomore Lamar Jackson to a in his prime Joe Flacco (28-32).
I mentioned this above earlier.

Now I personally am fully on-board with the idea that the Ravens have a plan to develop Lamar Jackson & their efforts to surround him with talent. That is what good organizations do. Find a guy they believe is their Franchise, and develop him & surround him with the talent that fits him best.

However we all know QBs take time to develop.

Year 2 Goff - 477 attempts
Year 2 Tribusky - 434 (pace of 496 in 16 games)
Year 2 Watson - 505 attempts
Year 2 Mariota - 451 attempts

(I listed QBs I felt all had either shortened season I or really rough year Is)

That and the past history of Harbaughs QB development of Flacco seems to suggest that the Ravens, while likely to increase their passing attempts in an effort to have a more balanced offensive approach, are unlikely to tilt the numbers from 400 to 600 in 1 year (but I am not suggesting anyone thinks that is going to happen).

So I think it all depends on ones mindset.

If you're expecting - and it does not seem like many are - the Ravens to suddenly go back to throwing 600+ times a game next year, I'd be quite surprised if they did. It could happen Year 3-4 depending on Jacksons development. I think the most probable scenario is to project a ceiling of 480-520 attempts. Assuming that Marquise Brown wins the WR1 role, and they plan to give him a WR1 share like 22-25% from the get-go, then thats a target range of 120-135.

Interestingly enough that would put MB in Keenan Allen range. Keenan Allen got 136 targets last year (26%) and came in WR12. I personally would call that the safest Year 1 max upside I could foresee from Marquise Brown - sure I could project 100-1400-12 ... ;)

Like I said thats assuming 500+ attempts, 22+% target share & Marquise Brown is fully healthy & fully immersed into the Ravens plans from Day I.

Less attempts and/or smaller target share could easily change that outcome. Lamar Jackson development not proceeding as expected (from the Ravens perspective not the hatahs) could as well - especially if the Ravens decide to reset in 2020.

So most optimistic scenario suggests potential for MB to reach high end WR2 low end WR1 if everything goes well. Others have already mentioned the more pessimistic, and possibly more realistic, scenarios.

Even 80-100 targets and a 18-20% target share Year 1 would suggest MB is on the right track.
I think this is the right way to approach it, I'll give a quick shot at my best guess:

475 pass attempts
20% target share

95 targets - 55 catches (58% catch rate) / 875 yards (15.9 ypc) / 6 TDs - 151 points in my .5 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR #3 last season. I also think he'll be fairly boom-bust if the above statline holds true, so still not someone that you'd want to consistently rely on.

I think anyone *expecting* more than that in 2019 from M. Brown is going to be disappointed. And I see plenty of reason for skepticism that he can even achieve those numbers (rookie learning curve, health, Jackson's passing ability). But as the NFL game continues to shift towards more space, more speed, and more separation / mismatches, I do think there's a reasonable chance that Brown is able to develop into a Tyreek Hill type of player in the next 2 - 3 years.
Careful; I projected 100 targets and got blasted..... :lol:

Your probably safe though at 95! 8-)

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 5:25 pm
by JTLoh
Miles Boykins is the best value in the draft.

Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 5:53 pm
by Ice
JTLoh wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:25 pm
Miles Boykins is the best value in the draft.
Maybe if you get him in the 3rd or 4th and he hits! He is not without talent but no where close to M. Brown In overall skill set.

I do like his upside some.