Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Cameron Giles]

The "upside" he showed is all in how you viewed him originally. I know you were super high on the guy. I saw him as a DJax clone in that its going to be feast or famine starting him and he will struggle with injuries due to a lack of size. Better NFL player than fantasy player. He has been exactly what I thought and im not upset with having zero shares.

A better QB would help, but I still don't project him as a guy to get enough volume to be startable if the big splash play doesn't hit that week.

That's no fault of his though. Brown can do a lot more than the big play, fly route stuff.



The issue is the Ravens seem to only be getting him the ball on those types of plays, instead of targeting him on a more complete and versatile route tree, that he showed he can run and create separation on as a rookie.

Brown entered this game 14th in air yards and 4th in deep targets, yet he's WR40 something on the season.

So, as good as DeSean Jackson was, I think Brown is capable of being much more versatile. It's just up to the Ravens as to whether they want to get the ball to him in those ways since the deep ball is clearly not working for Jackson this year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I drafted him a bunch last year in part due to Giles. I didn't love his size but didn't mind it either. I don't disagree he's talented but man when I saw him on an NFL field he just looked so small. He looks like a peewee player where their helmet looks too big for their body. The Ravens offense also looked horrid in terms of likelihood of peppering a single receiver with a bunch of targets. Sold him everywhere this past offseason. Obviously he can still pan out, but unfortunately talent is not everything in the NFL.

[thebeast]

I think he has to be faded the rest of this year, or at least until that offense shows they've fixed a few things. This is still just Lamar's second full year as a starter, not all progression is linear, I wouldn't give up on him either just yet.

[Jigga94]

I think he has to be faded the rest of this year, or at least until that offense shows they've fixed a few things. This is still just Lamar's second full year as a starter, not all progression is linear, I wouldn't give up on him either just yet.

Went in the to year with him as my FLEX or WR4... I've been starting Jeudy or Henry/Fant over him for a while. Not that they are doing much better, but Hollywood needed to ride the bench for a while. Such a low floor this year and he hasn't hit his ceiling in pretty much any game

[jenkins.math]

That's no fault of his though. Brown can do a lot more than the big play, fly route stuff.

The issue is the Ravens seem to only be getting him the ball on those types of plays, instead of targeting him on a more complete and versatile route tree, that he showed he can run and create separation on as a rookie.

Brown entered this game 14th in air yards and 4th in deep targets, yet he's WR40 something on the season.

So, as good as DeSean Jackson was, I think Brown is capable of being much more versatile. It's just up to the Ravens as to whether they want to get the ball to him in those ways since the deep ball is clearly not working for Jackson this year.

It's a great looking visual if you are trying to justify a pro-Hollywood stance, but it really doesn't say anything. He was given a lot of cushion last year, so if you are given a large cushion, winning on a curl, slant, or any short route doesn't show him having a developed route tree like you are implying. The entire offense last year was just so unique to the NFL that looking at any individual successes against NFL defenses that hadn't seen anything like that should be taken with a grain of salt.

When we have to start digging further and further analytically to justify a player being good when he isn't producing.....man I'm a Titans fan and lets just say I saw that movie with Mariota

I am not saying that Hollywood sucks or that this is his fault. I just think he was overhyped as a fantasy asset (especially by the guys that graphic came from) and there hasn't been anything to make me even question that stance. On a historic scoring offense, the guy averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game and 4 of his 7 TDs came against the Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets last year. That is not getting it done.

[Cameron Giles]

It's a great looking visual if you are trying to justify a pro-Hollywood stance, but it really doesn't say anything. He was given a lot of cushion last year, so if you are given a large cushion, winning on a curl, slant, or any short route doesn't show him having a developed route tree like you are implying. The entire offense last year was just so unique to the NFL that looking at any individual successes against NFL defenses that hadn't seen anything like that should be taken with a grain of salt.

When we have to start digging further and further analytically to justify a player being good when he isn't producing.....man I'm a Titans fan and lets just say I saw that movie with Mariota

I am not saying that Hollywood sucks or that this is his fault. I just think he was overhyped as a fantasy asset (especially by the guys that graphic came from) and there hasn't been anything to make me even question that stance. On a historic scoring offense, the guy averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game and 4 of his 7 TDs came against the Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets last year. That is not getting it done.

That's not how it's measured though.

Keep in mind that Baltimore won 9 games last season by two possessions or more. So, running up passing yardage stopped after a certain point. I don't think looking strictly at his yards/gm is really telling the whole story there. We know he needs more yardage to be a more coveted asset, but that doesn't come unless Jackson improves as a passer and the Ravens stop limiting targets to just fly routes and post routes downfield.

[jenkins.math]

It's a great looking visual if you are trying to justify a pro-Hollywood stance, but it really doesn't say anything. He was given a lot of cushion last year, so if you are given a large cushion, winning on a curl, slant, or any short route doesn't show him having a developed route tree like you are implying. The entire offense last year was just so unique to the NFL that looking at any individual successes against NFL defenses that hadn't seen anything like that should be taken with a grain of salt.

When we have to start digging further and further analytically to justify a player being good when he isn't producing.....man I'm a Titans fan and lets just say I saw that movie with Mariota

I am not saying that Hollywood sucks or that this is his fault. I just think he was overhyped as a fantasy asset (especially by the guys that graphic came from) and there hasn't been anything to make me even question that stance. On a historic scoring offense, the guy averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game and 4 of his 7 TDs came against the Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets last year. That is not getting it done.

That's not how it's measured though.

Keep in mind that Baltimore won 9 games last season by two possessions or more. So, running up passing yardage stopped after a certain point. I don't think looking strictly at his yards/gm is really telling the whole story there. We know he needs more yardage to be a more coveted asset, but that doesn't come unless Jackson improves as a passer and the Ravens stop limiting targets to just fly routes and post routes downfield.

Feel free to explain then because according to Harmon, the success rate is "how often the receiver gets open against the defenders covering him". "Creating separation, enough for a QB to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success."

So if there is a reasonable window that is considered a success. Which has flaws because that is up to interpretation of what a reasonable window is. So he could run a slant against a prevent defense and it would be considered a success according to the parameters by the author.

[Blueboy]

But everyone always says pick talent over situation??

A lot of us (myself included) still view Brown as a good stash for this reason. But this is a weird marriage.

Brown is obviously an extreme outlier in terms of size and skillset, there's really not a great comp for him. The situation is another unique extreme, both with the run-focused scheme and Jackson's passing kinks. I for one am still optimistic that things improve in 2021 in a big way -- the O-line is a huge issue right now, fixing that should get the running game online, which will let Jackson get the coverage matchups he needs for accuracy. On the other hand, we don't have any definitive proof that Jackson will ever be comfortable targeting receivers that aren't of the big-bodied archetype.

[Pullo Vision]

But everyone always says pick talent over situation??

Yes, but you also want to set reasonable expectations. If you drafted him expecting him to be an every-week starter, or a top 24 producer, you're approaching rookies wrong. Every rookie is a gamble. Each player has a combo of ceilings and floors, each year and for their career. Brown can have a low combo of ceiling and floor while he's with Baltimore and a potentially higher combo if/when he moves on. Imagine him as the downfield complement to Davante Adams, or the 3rd WR in Seattle or KC. They wouldn't necessarily turn him into a stud, but they'd elevate his value and could easily make him more consistently startable.

[murphysxm]

It would help if he stopped dropping balls that hit him in the hands

[Jigga94]

But everyone always says pick talent over situation??

Yes, but you also want to set reasonable expectations. If you drafted him expecting him to be an every-week starter, or a top 24 producer, you're approaching rookies wrong. Every rookie is a gamble. Each player has a combo of ceilings and floors, each year and for their career. Brown can have a low combo of ceiling and floor while he's with Baltimore and a potentially higher combo if/when he moves on. Imagine him as the downfield complement to Davante Adams, or the 3rd WR in Seattle or KC. They wouldn't necessarily turn him into a stud, but they'd elevate his value and could easily make him more consistently startable.

Man, his speed/route running + Russ deep ball. That would be fun to watch

[Sriracha]

Far too often we (as a community) dismiss a players lack of production because of his situation.

We did it for years with Corey Davis.. then AJB calmly enters the picture and is the immediate alpha WR at 21 years old.

Is Marquise's production being hampered by the BAL ravens and Lamar Jackson? Absolutely. But we knew his production last year was a bit of mirage given that an absurd amount of it came in two games vs terrible defenses. Maybe he rebounds, but I don't think he ever lives up to the hype that some people in this thread had on him; regardless of his situation.

The truly great players transcend their situation.

[Space Cowboy]

Lamar Jackson is a WR first QB second just like Polian said. No one knew what to expect last year, this year = lol

[Cameron Giles]

Far too often we (as a community) dismiss a players lack of production because of his situation.

We did it for years with Corey Davis.. then AJB calmly enters the picture and is the immediate alpha WR at 21 years old.

Is Marquise's production being hampered by the BAL ravens and Lamar Jackson? Absolutely. But we knew his production last year was a bit of mirage given that an absurd amount of it came in two games vs terrible defenses. Maybe he rebounds, but I don't think he ever lives up to the hype that some people in this thread had on him; regardless of his situation.

The truly great players transcend their situation.

How do you transcend a coaching staff only looking for you on deep balls and a QB who's inaccurate at them?

Just doesn't seem realistic. There's only so much you can control.

[failblazer]

Far too often we (as a community) dismiss a players lack of production because of his situation.

We did it for years with Corey Davis.. then AJB calmly enters the picture and is the immediate alpha WR at 21 years old.

Is Marquise's production being hampered by the BAL ravens and Lamar Jackson? Absolutely. But we knew his production last year was a bit of mirage given that an absurd amount of it came in two games vs terrible defenses. Maybe he rebounds, but I don't think he ever lives up to the hype that some people in this thread had on him; regardless of his situation.

The truly great players transcend their situation.

How do you transcend a coaching staff only looking for you on deep balls and a QB who's inaccurate at them?

Just doesn't seem realistic. There's only so much you can control.

You can start by catching the passes you're getting that are catchable. Beyond that, if you're truly a transcendent talent then you will show enough in practise and in limited game time that the coaching staff will have to give you more opportunities. For as much as people think certain coaches are stubborn and/or bad at football, they are all smart football people who want to win football games and keep their jobs*. They may defer to veterans over rookies or have a prefered style of player at a certain position but most can spot true, undeniable talent when they see it. If a guy isn't getting more work, especially for a team crying out for help at their position then I think you have to start questioning how special that player actually is.

*This statement obviously doesn't not extend to Bill O'Brian.