Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Jason3123]

I posted in the fallers thread earlier that I think Brown will shoot up drafts after the draft. He’s a strong value right now. I have a feeling he’ll be a top 50 pick and not so cheap come May.

[FantasyFreak]

Man.... he looks damn good. Very impressive. Landing spot and when he gets drafted will be telling. Not gonna lie though. 166 LB is a red flag for me.

Your going to hear about it from Cam. He'll tell you why it doesn't matter. To me, the fact he didn't come into the combine in the 170's is more of a red flag. It means he's probably playing in the high 150's or low 160's. He did not have to test at the combine, but weighed in. So add 7-10 pounds of water weight. He can bulk up, but how much? Also got shut down by Bama. Goose egg. He was playing hurt, but in the NFL, playing at that weight, I think he's going to have to play hurt quite a bit, or dinged up. That goose egg combined with that weight at the combine without having to test are huge red flags for me.

Also, it appears in that route he "sold", vs Texas (which I agree he ran well), was a zone, and he was selling that route to nobody, really. That conference has terrible defense. Look at how clumped together all those LB's are in that zone. It's either dumb coaching or poor execution, my guess is the latter. He found the spot to get to, though, and looked really explosive, I'll give him that.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Too many other prospects out there for me to take a risk on him. If he falls to the teens in my rookie draft, may take him there... That's good value. But not earlier, at least as a point of value.

[Cameron Giles]

Man.... he looks damn good. Very impressive. Landing spot and when he gets drafted will be telling. Not gonna lie though. 166 LB is a red flag for me.

Your going to hear about it from Cam. He'll tell you why it doesn't matter. To me, the fact he didn't come into the combine in the 170's is more of a red flag. It means he's probably playing in the high 150's or low 160's. He did not have to test at the combine, but weighed in. So add 7-10 pounds of water weight. He can bulk up, but how much? Also got shut down by Bama. Goose egg. He was playing hurt, but in the NFL, playing at that weight, I think he's going to have to play hurt quite a bit, or dinged up. That goose egg combined with that weight at the combine without having to test are huge red flags for me.

Also, it appears in that route he "sold", vs Texas (which I agree he ran well), was a zone, and he was selling that route to nobody, really. That conference has terrible defense. Look at how clumped together all those LB's are in that zone. It's either dumb coaching or poor execution, my guess is the latter. He found the spot to get to, though, and looked really explosive, I'll give him that.

The Alabama game isn't particularly meaningful since we know he was trying to play through a LisFranc injury. So, he wasn't playing hurt, he was playing injured.

Like I said in the OP, whatever concerns you have of Brown have already been baked into the price. It's made him a big value. He was one of the best receivers in college last season and torched teams with his route running.

Unless he lands in Green Bay or something, where people will lazily disregard his downside because of the QB, he's going to continue to be great value. There's no question about how good of a receiver he actually is and you're getting him below players who actually have questions about how good of a receiver they actually are.

[Dynos]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

[philosophy]

I love the talent and he is expected to go in the first round of the draft, however that weight scares me as everybody has pointed out by now. Can he become an alpha receiver like AB/Hill or is his ceiling a complementary receiver such as DJax?

So the question to you CG, as the loudest and proudest supporter of Brown over the past few months here is, where would you take him in this year's rookie drafts? (i.e. 'true value')

[Jfever]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot. I like that he runs good routes and is smart, and can catch. If he didn't or couldn't; he wouldnt have been able to play at the NCAA level. The NFL is a different beast though. At 166 lbs. He will be hurt / injured often. WAY too often to spend a 1.04. I'd consider him in the mid 2nd. Any early - I'm not interested. I have some limits and 166lbs is just too light for my comfort levels. I'll let someone else draft him and deal with the potential upside AND the potential wasted pick. I can live with that just fine.
166 lbs.... No way.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot. I like that he runs good routes and is smart, and can catch. If he didn't or couldn't; he wouldnt have been able to play at the NCAA level. The NFL is a different beast though. At 166 lbs. He will be hurt / injured often. WAY too often to spend a 1.04. I'd consider him in the mid 2nd. Any early - I'm not interested. I have some limits and 166lbs is just too light for my comfort levels. I'll let someone else draft him and deal with the potential upside AND the potential wasted pick. I can live with that just fine.
166 lbs.... No way.

The times, they are a-changin'. 2 years ago no one would ever consider a sub 6' QB at 1 overall, but this year it's been a foregone conclusion for a month. 4 still might be a little high, but getting open is the #1 skill in the NFL.
I'd love to see a correlation between player weight or BMI and games missed. Intuitively it seems like smaller guys are more likely to get hurt, but intuition isn't always correct. Anyone seen data on this?

[Phaded]

I agree the times are changing..

With the NFL gearing more and more toward "safety" - being of a bigger physical build is becoming not AS important.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot.

Tavon's college YPR was under 12 whereas Brown's is over 17. Different types of players. It's the same reason why DK3cone is nothing like Kevin White.

[Monkey]

Too many other prospects out there for me to take a risk on him. If he falls to the teens in my rookie draft, may take him there... That's good value. But not earlier, at least as a point of value.

Basically how I feel. I do think he represents value in the teens, maybe late first early second.. but in my SF/TE premium, I'd probably pass on him at my 1.09 pick. In normal PPR, 1.08 is about as early as I'd consider given the risk/reward, imo.

[MEuRaH]

This is one hell of a write up.

Recovery from lis franc could carry through the summer, meaning Marquise might lose some valuable time in training camp, which will probably stunt his growth as an NFL WR in year 1. So even if you don't get him this year, you might be able to acquire him on the cheap in the off-season next year due to impatient owners.

Cameron, this was one of the best write-ups about a player on these forums that I've ever seen. Awesome job.

[Jfever]

Now i'm torn between miles sanders and marquise brown at 1.4

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot.

Tavon's college YPR was under 12 whereas Brown's is over 17. Different types of players. It's the same reason why DK3cone is nothing like Kevin White.

Do you think YPR is an accurate way to compare two players skill sets? I sure and the hell don't. Too many other variables. 3 cone also is not how you measure a good football player from a not good football player. I know you like your stats but, they are limited at best at what they can and cannot show. You love taking conclusions from statistics. I see so many holes in that, it hurts my head thinking of it.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Would your REALLY use the 1.04 pick on a wr that weighs 166lbs? Heck, if he was 176lb I'd still be concerned. I remember lots of folks banging the drum for Tavon Austin. He was fast, electric, multi talented, dynamic, a game changer etc.... That didn't work out so hot.

Tavon's college YPR was under 12 whereas Brown's is over 17. Different types of players. It's the same reason why DK3cone is nothing like Kevin White.

Do you think YPR is an accurate way to compare two players skill sets? I sure and the hell don't. Too many other variables. 3 cone also is not how you measure a good football player from a not good football player. I know you like your stats but, they are limited at best at what they can and cannot show. You love taking conclusions from statistics. I see so many holes in that, it hurts my head thinking of it.

Uh. You alright?

[Cameron Giles]

I love the talent and he is expected to go in the first round of the draft, however that weight scares me as everybody has pointed out by now. Can he become an alpha receiver like AB/Hill or is his ceiling a complementary receiver such as DJax?

So the question to you CG, as the loudest and proudest supporter of Brown over the past few months here is, where would you take him in this year's rookie drafts? (i.e. 'true value')

Before the injury, I had Brown 1.01 and was predicting he'd be the first WR drafted. To me, his tape is the best that I've watched. He checks too many technical boxes of what really good receivers do.

If I owned picks in this draft, I would be manipulating it like crazy to be in position to get Brown in the mid to late first.