Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft
Posted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:34 pm
I'm not very high on this class. I think it lacks star upside and quality depth. That said, Marquise Brown is a player you should be targeting in your drafts and currently represents the best value.
Going into the draft, Brown is already discounted heavily. So, if you're not completely sold on him, who cares? Your risk is baked into the price and will continue to be unless he lands in an undeniable situation with an elite QB. He is not listed in the Top 10 of rookie ADP or as a Top 5 WR. The reasons are obvious, so let's get the downside out of the way first.
Brown is 166 pounds, which doesn't meet the typical threshold of a WR1 in dynasty. However, weight is not a static number. NFL players frequently gain and lose weight, so it shouldn't be a huge factor in your optimism or pessimism, especially in a less physical league where rules have been shifted to benefit offensive players.
Brown suffered a LisFranc injury towards the end of the season. It's a more than notable injury. Some studies show that the injury is unlikely to cause a significant decrease in production and ability (https://lermagazine.com/news/in-the-mom ... takes-time) and some studies show that it can (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29708569). Le'Veon Bell overcame the injury, while Santonio Holmes was never the same after it. There are other examples, but it's hard to predict what will happen because of the injury.
But, the silver lining remains that you're already being given a discount because of the injury. These are the two most notable things to be concerned about. After that? You're getting one of the best players in this class.
Brown is arguably the best playmaker in this class. He's explosive, fast, quick, and agile.
(https://giant.gfycat.com/JoyfulLoathsomeBellfrog.mp4)
This isn't anything glorious, but it just shows how dangerous he is in space. DB's respect the speed/big play and give him the cushion and he still makes them pay.
Pick your poison. Now, we've seen a ton of speedy college WR's do this, as it typically comes with the territory. But Brown is an advanced route runner. He creates separation effortlessly at all three levels of the field, understands the finer points in running a route and has excellent footwork and patient.
Brown is fantastic at selling a route.
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YbpLe2v ... tience.gif)
Brown sells the shallow cross and turns it into a go route and creates a huge window for Murray in a zone.
Here's another one.
(https://giant.gfycat.com/ClumsyHardtofindAnaconda.mp4)
This isn't fair. Brown sells a route up field on the outside, stops on a dime with a quick stutter and creates space to win on a slant route.
Another one where Brown shows patience, quick footwork and creates excellent throwing windows for his QB
(https://giant.gfycat.com/SerpentineIndelibleGoat.mp4)
Here Brown stutter steps on a post route and while the safety doesn't completely bite, he hesitates just enough for Brown's speed to take over and get past him for a TD.
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4sfYZiG ... _Route.gif)
Marquise looks like he's picked up a thing or two from Antonio. Either way, his route running, separation skills, footwork and big play ability are off the charts. And he still has room to get better as a route runner. I see a lot of what Calvin Ridley represented last year as a route runner in Brown and to me he has some Tyreek Hill/Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs to his game. He's an advanced route technician already coming into the league and has made life easy for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive seasons.
For a WR who's currently being mocked in the late 1st or worse of rookie drafts, he's by far the best value available right now and someone who I'd be seeking out. On top of it, he still has a good chance to go Day 1, or at worst early Day 2. So, if you value draft pedigree, it will be there. But, no other WR has come close to showing what Brown has on tape last season.
Daniel Jeremiah currently has him 16th on his top prospects available and Matt Harmon (Reception Pereception) is starting to take note of him as well. (https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 0614325248)
Going into the draft, Brown is already discounted heavily. So, if you're not completely sold on him, who cares? Your risk is baked into the price and will continue to be unless he lands in an undeniable situation with an elite QB. He is not listed in the Top 10 of rookie ADP or as a Top 5 WR. The reasons are obvious, so let's get the downside out of the way first.
Brown is 166 pounds, which doesn't meet the typical threshold of a WR1 in dynasty. However, weight is not a static number. NFL players frequently gain and lose weight, so it shouldn't be a huge factor in your optimism or pessimism, especially in a less physical league where rules have been shifted to benefit offensive players.
Brown suffered a LisFranc injury towards the end of the season. It's a more than notable injury. Some studies show that the injury is unlikely to cause a significant decrease in production and ability (https://lermagazine.com/news/in-the-mom ... takes-time) and some studies show that it can (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29708569). Le'Veon Bell overcame the injury, while Santonio Holmes was never the same after it. There are other examples, but it's hard to predict what will happen because of the injury.
But, the silver lining remains that you're already being given a discount because of the injury. These are the two most notable things to be concerned about. After that? You're getting one of the best players in this class.
Brown is arguably the best playmaker in this class. He's explosive, fast, quick, and agile.
(https://giant.gfycat.com/JoyfulLoathsomeBellfrog.mp4)
This isn't anything glorious, but it just shows how dangerous he is in space. DB's respect the speed/big play and give him the cushion and he still makes them pay.
Pick your poison. Now, we've seen a ton of speedy college WR's do this, as it typically comes with the territory. But Brown is an advanced route runner. He creates separation effortlessly at all three levels of the field, understands the finer points in running a route and has excellent footwork and patient.
Brown is fantastic at selling a route.
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YbpLe2v ... tience.gif)
Brown sells the shallow cross and turns it into a go route and creates a huge window for Murray in a zone.
Here's another one.
(https://giant.gfycat.com/ClumsyHardtofindAnaconda.mp4)
This isn't fair. Brown sells a route up field on the outside, stops on a dime with a quick stutter and creates space to win on a slant route.
Another one where Brown shows patience, quick footwork and creates excellent throwing windows for his QB
(https://giant.gfycat.com/SerpentineIndelibleGoat.mp4)
Here Brown stutter steps on a post route and while the safety doesn't completely bite, he hesitates just enough for Brown's speed to take over and get past him for a TD.
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4sfYZiG ... _Route.gif)
Marquise looks like he's picked up a thing or two from Antonio. Either way, his route running, separation skills, footwork and big play ability are off the charts. And he still has room to get better as a route runner. I see a lot of what Calvin Ridley represented last year as a route runner in Brown and to me he has some Tyreek Hill/Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs to his game. He's an advanced route technician already coming into the league and has made life easy for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive seasons.
For a WR who's currently being mocked in the late 1st or worse of rookie drafts, he's by far the best value available right now and someone who I'd be seeking out. On top of it, he still has a good chance to go Day 1, or at worst early Day 2. So, if you value draft pedigree, it will be there. But, no other WR has come close to showing what Brown has on tape last season.
Daniel Jeremiah currently has him 16th on his top prospects available and Matt Harmon (Reception Pereception) is starting to take note of him as well. (https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 0614325248)