Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Ice]

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

i don't work out at all nor do i eat right and i keep adding weight. I'm such a beast.

[ArrylT]

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

i don't work out at all nor do i eat right and i keep adding weight. I'm such a beast.

I call dibs on drafting Dynasty Delorean 1.01!

[ninotoreS]

Keep in mind that Brown transferred from a JC and started his first D1 season at age 20. So, his breakout age being at 21.3 isn't particularly meaningful one way or the other because he was never going to have the 18-19 breakout age that people look for in advanced stats.

I know. It's not a deal breaker for me. But it is one of the more reliable metrics for forecasting pro success, so I have to note it.

Brown has been injured since Oklahoma's first playoff game. He opted for surgery after they lost to Alabama. So, any opportunity to gain weight wasn't present.

Like I said. He's already put on 35 lbs since he left high-school. How much room for growth does he have left? Every body has its natural upper limit, just at a genetic level.

Obviously you can push it further with PEDs...

Brown's play strength is respectable.

It's below average. I have looked at him enough to be confident of that.

The rules and style the league shifted to has pretty much allowed smaller and lighter players to be successful.

People keep making this nebulously supported point. What I know for a fact is that NFL corners combining strength, length, and just enough speed and quickness continue to be very effective in today's league at limiting WRs with subpar play-strength. Making more types of tackles illegal doesn't change that. There's legal contact every snap, before the ball even leaves the QB's hand.

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

There's a point of diminishing returns on mad gains, bro. Do you even lift?


(yes, this is tongue in cheek... also making a real point, tho)

[honcho55]

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

I’ll nitpick a little here, this isn’t 100% accurate. Best numbers I can find, I estimated around 5000 surplus calories to build a pound of muscle. A pound of fat is 3500 stored calories, so that simple math is for losing/gaining fat. Muscle mass on the other hand, requires energy to construct as it is a highly organized tissue. Also it of course takes the energy needed to cause the muscle to grow (lifting)

Anyways, it’s pretty hard to tell where on the spectrum brown is. Is he primed to put on more good weight easily? Is he “maxed out” for his current frame? Either are VERY possible. There’s plenty of evidence of guys on both ends.

I’m a bit too lazy right now to find examples of smaller skill guys, but theres a million examples of high school LBs adding 50 pounds and going DT, it similar. I’d wager the more extreme cases are bigger framed guys, but this obviously doesn’t mean a smaller guy can’t add good quality weight.

On the other end, how many prospects this small have came into the league, and couldn’t? Sure, I can take an untrained individual, with access to Nfl player resources and add 30 lbs of muscle, no question. But, A: our bodies are somewhat hardwired to not get over a certain threshold. I dunno what Browns is. By “certain threshhold” I don’t mean CANT add more weight, but it becomes very very hard to do naturally, without causing overuse injury, and possibly most importantly my last point:

Sometimes adding weight negatively impacts game play. Aka: a player could add more muscle, but there’s cases where it’s a detriment to their skill, or play speed.

Anyways through all that rant, I think it’s more than fair to ding brown for his weight. There’s just not that many cases where a prospect with that number was successful. That is simple math. THAT said, if you like him anyways I don’t blame ya, especially at his current price, and the current nfl rules.

[philosophy]

I love the talent and he is expected to go in the first round of the draft, however that weight scares me as everybody has pointed out by now. Can he become an alpha receiver like AB/Hill or is his ceiling a complementary receiver such as DJax?

So the question to you CG, as the loudest and proudest supporter of Brown over the past few months here is, where would you take him in this year's rookie drafts? (i.e. 'true value')

Before the injury, I had Brown 1.01 and was predicting he'd be the first WR drafted. To me, his tape is the best that I've watched. He checks too many technical boxes of what really good receivers do.

If I owned picks in this draft, I would be manipulating it like crazy to be in position to get Brown in the mid to late first.

Thanks for the reply. I have the 1.05 so am considering him there, but will see where his ADP falls once he is drafted and we see the team/fit. Would love to move back if his ADP is late 1st, early 2nd, however I'm not confident of a trade back at the moment.

As for the weight discussion, I'm a recreational natural bodybuilder who knows the struggle of adding lean tissue without PEDs. The body seeks homeostasis and one must force a weight increase with added, whole food preferably, calories and continual progressive overload in the gym. Calories and sufficient protein are the most important factors as Sumo wrestlers have more lean tissue than the Ronnie Coleman's and Phil Heath's of the world. It takes time however as too much too soon will lead to unwanted fat gain. He will need to gain the good weight ideally during the off-season, which is now, and maintain the new weight with a higher calorie maintenance.

All this has to be done whilst maintaining his speed, quickness and conditioning. Thus there will be more of a strength focus during the off-season and speed work in-season. I'm sure the team that takes him will address this with their necessary and highly knowledgable staff.

[philosophy]

Adding weight over time is actually pretty natural. It doesn't take drugs just working out and eating right. 3500 calories = 1lb. Increase your total net calories by 3500 in a week and you add a lb.

Its basic math.

I’ll nitpick a little here, this isn’t 100% accurate. Best numbers I can find, I estimated around 5000 surplus calories to build a pound of muscle. A pound of fat is 3500 stored calories, so that simple math is for losing/gaining fat. Muscle mass on the other hand, requires energy to construct as it is a highly organized tissue. Also it of course takes the energy needed to cause the muscle to grow (lifting)

Anyways, it’s pretty hard to tell where on the spectrum brown is. Is he primed to put on more good weight easily? Is he “maxed out” for his current frame? Either are VERY possible. There’s plenty of evidence of guys on both ends.

I’m a bit too lazy right now to find examples of smaller skill guys, but theres a million examples of high school LBs adding 50 pounds and going DT, it similar. I’d wager the more extreme cases are bigger framed guys, but this obviously doesn’t mean a smaller guy can’t add good quality weight.

On the other end, how many prospects this small have came into the league, and couldn’t? Sure, I can take an untrained individual, with access to Nfl player resources and add 30 lbs of muscle, no question. But, A: our bodies are somewhat hardwired to not get over a certain threshold. I dunno what Browns is. By “certain threshhold” I don’t mean CANT add more weight, but it becomes very very hard to do naturally, without causing overuse injury, and possibly most importantly my last point:

Sometimes adding weight negatively impacts game play. Aka: a player could add more muscle, but there’s cases where it’s a detriment to their skill, or play speed.

Anyways through all that rant, I think it’s more than fair to ding brown for his weight. There’s just not that many cases where a prospect with that number was successful. That is simple math. THAT said, if you like him anyways I don’t blame ya, especially at his current price, and the current nfl rules.

Fair points.

I'll just add MBrown is the same height as both AB and Hill and is exactly 7kgs (15lbs) lighter than each of them. The issue is that we do not have a full view of each of them in speedos to see where the weight difference lies. I'm assuming they all are fairly proportional so Marquise needs to add throughout his entire frame. Solution: start at 3500-4000 calories a day and perform 4 heavy compound lift days a week, with speed/conditioning work on off days. Increasing weight on the bar over time and increased calories as morning scale weight stalls. The problem: Brown is injured and may not be able to perform any or all compound lifts.

Ultimately it will come down to the team that selects him and the role they view him in. I don't think adding a few kgs will affect his speed, considerably anyway. But can he and will he add the weight; I'm slightly skeptical at this point. AB's and Hill's combine weight is unchanged, thus Marquise may have a tough road to WR1 status if he ever gets there.

[Factory of Sadness]

My head is hurting at the science going in to adding 15lbs versus the less than scientific assumption that sees those 15lbs as some kind of objective insurance against injury. Watch Brown take a hit and it looks exactly like TY taking a hit. Neither guy tries to fight it at all. They just go limp, get lifted off the ground and then land on it. What will determine injury is a combination of sheer chance and both mens' ability to sense, avoid and mitigate contact. Both are pretty rubbery when hit and seem to have the knack for absorbing contact. The idea that 15lbs added to Brown's frame will suddenly have him able to absorb a head on collision with an ill-intentioned safety is ridiculous.

I'd prefer him to be bigger. The league will prefer him to be bigger. I agree that if he is able to bulk up gradually without losing speed that the additional body armour may help a fraction. The idea that right now he is just a series of thin bones waiting to be snapped and that whether or not he can add 15lbs on his frame will determine his survival or otherwise is amusing though.

The keys to his survival in ranked order will likely be-
Luck
QB accuracy/common sense
Instincts
Flexibility
Balance
More luck
The mythical 15lb armour of steel...

[philosophy]

My head is hurting at the science going in to adding 15lbs versus the mindlessness that sees those 15lbs as some kind of objective insurance against injury. Watch Brown take a hit and it looks exactly like TY taking a hit. Neither guy tries to fight it at all. They just go limp, get lifted off the ground and then land on it. What will determine injury is a combination of sheer chance and both mens' ability to sense, avoid and mitigate contact. Both are pretty rubbery when hit and seem to have the knack for absorbing contact. The idea that 15lbs added to Brown's frame will suddenly have him able to absorb a head on collision with an ill-intentioned safety is ridiculous.

I'd prefer him to be bigger. The league will prefer him to be bigger. I agree that if he is able to bulk up gradually without losing speed that the additional body armour may help a fraction. The idea that right now he is just a series of thin bones waiting to be snapped and that whether or not he can add 15lbs on his frame will determine his survival or otherwise is amusing though.

The keys to his survival in ranked order will likely be-
Luck
QB accuracy/common sense
Instincts
Flexibility
Balance
More luck
The mythical 15lb armour of steel...

It's not an insurance so much as an ability to reach WR1 status in today's NFL. Where do we draw the line for weight and targets earned over a full season. Hence he is being compared to DJax who has had a great career but is more boom/bust, and in the middle of the 1st I am not sure he is worth that ceiling. I prefer Brown to Butler but can understand those who have Butler ahead of him due to his prototypical size, among other reasons, and thus believe he can ascend to a larger role.

Not sure if you remember the time it took people to accept AB as an elite WR especially in dynasty. I remember him being undervalued two years after his breakout, crazy huh. I loved him after his first breakout year, however most couldn't get over his size. Well now we take another step down in size/weight...by his cousin nonetheless.

[Dynos]

treadwell had prototypal size... but not good route running.... it turned great....huh no

[Dynasty DeLorean]

treadwell had prototypal size... but not good route running.... it turned great....huh no

he was a turd athlete

[Cameron Giles]

so is he adding 15-20 pounds of skin or fat? or water weight? lean weight is muscle mass... but as I mentioned, I'm not concerned about his weight anyway, I just don't think he can get 180. Just my opinion is all.

Lean weight still comes with some fat.

He may not be able to add weight, or he may be able to add weight. I don't know why Brown wouldn't be able to (there's no condition that we know of preventing him), but let's say that we really don't know if he can or can't. That's already being factored into the risk of selecting him.

If the things that are preventing you from targeting him can't be proven one way or another, why would that sway you over what can be clearly proven?

[whodunnit]

so is he adding 15-20 pounds of skin or fat? or water weight? lean weight is muscle mass... but as I mentioned, I'm not concerned about his weight anyway, I just don't think he can get 180. Just my opinion is all.

Lean weight still comes with some fat.

He may not be able to add weight, or he may be able to add weight. I don't know why Brown wouldn't be able to (there's no condition that we know of preventing him), but let's say that we really don't know if he can or can't. That's already being factored into the risk of selecting him.

If the things that are preventing you from targeting him can't be proven one way or another, why would that sway you over what can be clearly proven?

As I've said several times, his weight isn't a factor for me. I don't care about his weight. I was simply addressing the fact that it's more difficult for a guy his size to add weight than you made it seem. I never said anything against his talent. I just like a few other guys over him. Not a big deal. I just don't have a crush on the guy like you do

[Cameron Giles]

Like I said. He's already put on 35 lbs since he left high-school. How much room for growth does he have left? Every body has its natural upper limit, just at a genetic level.

But again, this is something that we can't prove one way or another. So, why is it a big factor?

It's below average. I have looked at him enough to be confident of that.

I've watched him a lot and I don't view his play strength as below average. I think it's respectable. He's not afraid of contact and can play bigger than his size. He doesn't get pushed around on the field.

People keep making this nebulously supported point. What I know for a fact is that NFL corners combining strength, length, and just enough speed and quickness continue to be very effective in today's league at limiting WRs with subpar play-strength. Making more types of tackles illegal doesn't change that. There's legal contact every snap, before the ball even leaves the QB's hand.

If Brown got poor releases off the LOS and couldn't beat press due to technique or strength, I'd be concerned. But, he's too quick with his releases and has excellent footwork. I'm not concerned about him not being able to beat DB's or press coverage.

[Cameron Giles]

As I've said several times, his weight isn't a factor for me. I don't care about his weight. I was simply addressing the fact that it's more difficult for a guy his size to add weight than you made it seem. I never said anything against his talent. I just like a few other guys over him. Not a big deal. I just don't have a crush on the guy like you do

That's...the point of the thread. You don't really have to be in love with Brown. He's currently being mocked outside of the 1st round in rookie drafts. And because of his skillset, he represents insane value if he stays around that range. There are worse football players being mocked ahead of him. Any type of concern or pessimism you have is baked into the price.