Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat May 16, 2020 10:59 am

PR0v3 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:28 pm
I'm gonna just go ahead and say I see him having Antonio Brown, his cousin, type of potential. I've kind of thought this for a while, but his rookie season showed me that his size isn't going to stop him from being able to make plays. With his technical polish and standout physical attributes (his speed, quickness, and fluidity is almost unmatched), it's just really hard for me to imagine how defenders can contain him. He's pretty much everything you could ask for in a WR, besides the size, and like I said I didn't see anything last year that signaled his size would stop him from making plays. It will just really be a bummer if he has a foot setback.
I'm going to say not a chance. AB could play in all areas of the field, and could make contested plays. Hollywood's ceiling isn't AB. He had 6 straight years of over 100 catches, including 129 and 136. I'm going to guess Hollywood will be lucky to have 1.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat May 16, 2020 11:26 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 10:59 am
PR0v3 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:28 pm
I'm gonna just go ahead and say I see him having Antonio Brown, his cousin, type of potential. I've kind of thought this for a while, but his rookie season showed me that his size isn't going to stop him from being able to make plays. With his technical polish and standout physical attributes (his speed, quickness, and fluidity is almost unmatched), it's just really hard for me to imagine how defenders can contain him. He's pretty much everything you could ask for in a WR, besides the size, and like I said I didn't see anything last year that signaled his size would stop him from making plays. It will just really be a bummer if he has a foot setback.
I'm going to say not a chance. AB could play in all areas of the field, and could make contested plays. Hollywood's ceiling isn't AB. He had 6 straight years of over 100 catches, including 129 and 136. I'm going to guess Hollywood will be lucky to have 1.
Yeah, sure, something like this could happen, but through the first 9 years of his career, Antonio Brown had scored the 3rd most fantasy points of any WR ever, behind only Rice and Harrison. Comparisons to players who are that good represent 99th+ percentile outcomes- absolute best case scenarios and aren’t informative or useful.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby PR0v3 » Sat May 16, 2020 12:40 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 11:26 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 10:59 am
PR0v3 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:28 pm
I'm gonna just go ahead and say I see him having Antonio Brown, his cousin, type of potential. I've kind of thought this for a while, but his rookie season showed me that his size isn't going to stop him from being able to make plays. With his technical polish and standout physical attributes (his speed, quickness, and fluidity is almost unmatched), it's just really hard for me to imagine how defenders can contain him. He's pretty much everything you could ask for in a WR, besides the size, and like I said I didn't see anything last year that signaled his size would stop him from making plays. It will just really be a bummer if he has a foot setback.
I'm going to say not a chance. AB could play in all areas of the field, and could make contested plays. Hollywood's ceiling isn't AB. He had 6 straight years of over 100 catches, including 129 and 136. I'm going to guess Hollywood will be lucky to have 1.
Yeah, sure, something like this could happen, but through the first 9 years of his career, Antonio Brown had scored the 3rd most fantasy points of any WR ever, behind only Rice and Harrison. Comparisons to players who are that good represent 99th+ percentile outcomes- absolute best case scenarios and aren’t informative or useful.
I don’t really care if it is informative or useful, as my post wasn’t intended to be informative or useful. I’m just stating my opinion.

I believe Brown was the most skilled and polished WR prospect since Cooper, and I believe he has top tier potential. This is not something that can be proven, so take it or leave it.

I definitely disagree with the notion that Brown cannot play in all areas of the field, and I disagree with the idea that he can’t make contested catches as I’ve seen him demonstrate an advanced ability to manipulate defenders in a means to gain late separation when in a contested situation. Sure, he can’t highpoint like AB, but there are other things Hollywood can do that AB cannot.

I expect Hollywood to be a high volume target hog because that is just the type of player I believe he is. Again, this a projection, so I cannot prove anything about my statement, so we will just have to wait and see.

I can come up with some numbers and stuff in an attempt to make an objective comparison to someone with similar numbers and stuff, but that would ignore most of the subjective reasons for why I think he is and will be great. I’m not really looking to run a scientific study based on objective measures to formulate a conclusion that will be accepted by the masses because I don’t really believe scouting and projection work that way.

I look at Brown and I see a player that has the ability to get very open a lot of times during a game and not many opponents who can do much about it.
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WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, C. Davis, VJeff
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat May 16, 2020 12:53 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:40 pm
I don’t really care if it is informative or useful, as my post wasn’t intended to be informative or useful. I’m just stating my opinion.
Hey, as long as you’re open about it!
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby StripesOfKC » Sat May 16, 2020 12:55 pm

Haven't seen anyone with his frame ever be a consistent WR1/2
He could be the first but I wouldn't be betting on it.
Combine that with the run heavy nature of the offense and--despite his talent--I see a boom bust WR3
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby PR0v3 » Sat May 16, 2020 1:10 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:53 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:40 pm
I don’t really care if it is informative or useful, as my post wasn’t intended to be informative or useful. I’m just stating my opinion.
Hey, as long as you’re open about it!
I don't agree that it wasn't informative or useful though, as I see value in anyone posting their opinion, regardless of whether that opinion is backed by fact-based measurements that can be objectively proven or on nothing at all! If you don't see the use of that though, I'm not gonna complain! I'd love it if my leaguemates saw no use in understanding the general fantasy landscape!
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QB: Dak, Jameis, Jimmy G, Dalton, Luton, Mullens, Beathard
RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, C. Davis, VJeff
TE: Andrews, Gesicki
K: Myers
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ckrumm24 » Sat May 16, 2020 4:14 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:55 pm
Haven't seen anyone with his frame ever be a consistent WR1/2
He could be the first but I wouldn't be betting on it.
Combine that with the run heavy nature of the offense and--despite his talent--I see a boom bust WR3
This 1000%. I don’t want any 170lb WR on my team. Sure, he’ll have some big games, then a bunch of no shows, and then he’ll be hurt. No thanks.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby MattDeezy » Sat May 16, 2020 4:23 pm

ckrumm24 wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 4:14 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:55 pm
Haven't seen anyone with his frame ever be a consistent WR1/2
He could be the first but I wouldn't be betting on it.
Combine that with the run heavy nature of the offense and--despite his talent--I see a boom bust WR3
This 1000%. I don’t want any 170lb WR on my team. Sure, he’ll have some big games, then a bunch of no shows, and then he’ll be hurt. No thanks.
If the reports are true, he is apparently putting on 15lbs. That puts him in AB territory.

*Edit: it appears he was playing at 157 last season and not the listed 170 I see on him. Nvm.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Sat May 16, 2020 5:03 pm

mild wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:41 pm
Ravens use most pre-snap motion in the league - source...
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/281 ... ams-use-it
I don't think we're going to see Hollywood become AB. As others have said - that's kind of crazy talk, as that's complete outlier territory. I do see him as sharing a lot of the same traits in his route running, however - being able to correctly leverage his weight on his defender, slight as it is, means he's actually a lot better in contested catch situations than the people that write him off for being undersized would make it. It's almost like AB has been privately coaching him in his off-time, or something... 8-)

The area I think he's really going to excel this year is as a kind of Tyreek-lite style of player. As quoted above - the Ravens led the league in Pre-snap motion last year. They already have their cards semi-on the table in terms of what they're going to run this year - they are intimating that Lamar will work through the air more, and run less. Alright then, so what would that look like?

If I'm them (and I'm not) and I've got the most mobile QB in the league that I still want to leverage - but I don't want to get touched - then I'm looking at lots of rollout and quick-hit plays, where someone gets a running start (ie Hollywood) and then the reads are defined easily and quick from there - and the final option is Lamar escaping if nothing is open. Dial up the deep shot a few times a game to keep them honest - but apart from that, keep doing what he's being doing, and work the middle of the field to perfection. That has long been the best area of the field for Lamar's arm.

Hollywood having his speed back is great news in this style of role. He did plenty of it at OU too. I'm bullish, and I'm still trying to buy.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jenkins.math » Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm

mild wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 5:03 pm
mild wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:41 pm
Ravens use most pre-snap motion in the league - source...
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/281 ... ams-use-it
I don't think we're going to see Hollywood become AB. As others have said - that's kind of crazy talk, as that's complete outlier territory. I do see him as sharing a lot of the same traits in his route running, however - being able to correctly leverage his weight on his defender, slight as it is, means he's actually a lot better in contested catch situations than the people that write him off for being undersized would make it. It's almost like AB has been privately coaching him in his off-time, or something... 8-)

The area I think he's really going to excel this year is as a kind of Tyreek-lite style of player. As quoted above - the Ravens led the league in Pre-snap motion last year. They already have their cards semi-on the table in terms of what they're going to run this year - they are intimating that Lamar will work through the air more, and run less. Alright then, so what would that look like?

If I'm them (and I'm not) and I've got the most mobile QB in the league that I still want to leverage - but I don't want to get touched - then I'm looking at lots of rollout and quick-hit plays, where someone gets a running start (ie Hollywood) and then the reads are defined easily and quick from there - and the final option is Lamar escaping if nothing is open. Dial up the deep shot a few times a game to keep them honest - but apart from that, keep doing what he's being doing, and work the middle of the field to perfection. That has long been the best area of the field for Lamar's arm.

Hollywood having his speed back is great news in this style of role. He did plenty of it at OU too. I'm bullish, and I'm still trying to buy.
I'll believe it when I see it in regards to the Ravens wanting Lamar to pass more. That's exactly what every team in the league wants him to do and he aired it out a ton in his last game and they were awful.

The Ravens also took the best RPO RB in round 2 and a couple road grading guards in round 3 and 4. Nothing about their offseason moves screams "time to air it out." It's just Baltimore fans being excited about their team and fluff pieces about Hollywood that makes you think that. The Hollywood articles are the same articles written about young WRs every year. It's just copy and paste with changing the player and team.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat May 16, 2020 6:21 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm

I'll believe it when I see it in regards to the Ravens wanting Lamar to pass more. That's exactly what every team in the league wants him to do and he aired it out a ton in his last game and they were awful.
Lamar aired it out in their last game because they were awful. They were losing and had to throw. The understanding that teams throw more because they are losing rather than losing because they throw more is one of the oldest analytical principles in football. Same is true of its converse- you run when you’re winning, you don’t win because you’re running.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Sat May 16, 2020 6:48 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm
I'll believe it when I see it in regards to the Ravens wanting Lamar to pass more. That's exactly what every team in the league wants him to do and he aired it out a ton in his last game and they were awful.

The Ravens also took the best RPO RB in round 2 and a couple road grading guards in round 3 and 4. Nothing about their offseason moves screams "time to air it out."
I never said they'd get away from their identity - which has always been "Run and Play Defense" since as long as I can remember.

But as to the start of your statement - you'll believe it and see it pretty quickly, for two very simple reasons:

1. Lamar and his Receivers are exceedingly young and growing together - it's Lamar's 3rd season, he's only 23, and he's already shown us a tremendous work ethic to improve his craft as a thrower. Keep that trajectory in mind in light of the Ravens "throw it more" comments, and it really isn't that hard to fathom.

2. And much more importantly: Lamar was 26th in the league in Passing Attempts, and check out the names behind him... Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford - and Darnold one spot ahead. QB's that all missed multiple games.

His passing attempts were hilariously low. It will not take much on a Per-game pace to top them... and if you believe that the AFC North (and League in general) has significantly reloaded this offseason and will be more competitive, and you believe in regression for the Ravens - then that is plenty of evidence to suggest that game script will have the Ravens throwing more next season.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jenkins.math » Sun May 17, 2020 1:35 pm

mild wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 6:48 pm
jenkins.math wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 5:35 pm
I'll believe it when I see it in regards to the Ravens wanting Lamar to pass more. That's exactly what every team in the league wants him to do and he aired it out a ton in his last game and they were awful.

The Ravens also took the best RPO RB in round 2 and a couple road grading guards in round 3 and 4. Nothing about their offseason moves screams "time to air it out."
I never said they'd get away from their identity - which has always been "Run and Play Defense" since as long as I can remember.

But as to the start of your statement - you'll believe it and see it pretty quickly, for two very simple reasons:

1. Lamar and his Receivers are exceedingly young and growing together - it's Lamar's 3rd season, he's only 23, and he's already shown us a tremendous work ethic to improve his craft as a thrower. Keep that trajectory in mind in light of the Ravens "throw it more" comments, and it really isn't that hard to fathom.

2. And much more importantly: Lamar was 26th in the league in Passing Attempts, and check out the names behind him... Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford - and Darnold one spot ahead. QB's that all missed multiple games.

His passing attempts were hilariously low. It will not take much on a Per-game pace to top them... and if you believe that the AFC North (and League in general) has significantly reloaded this offseason and will be more competitive, and you believe in regression for the Ravens - then that is plenty of evidence to suggest that game script will have the Ravens throwing more next season.
Saying that they will throw more due to them playing behind more this year is different than you saying the Ravens are "intimating they want Lamar to throw more."

I think the Ravens are perfectly fine running it back again with Lamar not passing much. That appears to be the game plan and it should be. Lamar doesn't scare me at all throwing the ball 30+ times a game.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun May 17, 2020 2:09 pm

Brown went as a late first last year. A year late Hamler is going in the 30's due to size and situation concerns (he's 12 lbs. bigger than Brown). Gimme the guy with similar draft capital and profile who costs next to nothing.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Sun May 17, 2020 2:46 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 1:35 pm
Saying that they will throw more due to them playing behind more this year is different than you saying the Ravens are "intimating they want Lamar to throw more."
Why are you acting as if both statements aren't independant of the other? They can both be true, and I think they are. 14 Wins is a lot of Wins. 400 pass attempts is not a lot of pass attempts. Here is Lamar himself saying he will run less and lean on his WR's more.
The reigning MVP also alluded to a style change in the future in which he leans more on his weapons in the passing game and lets his running backs take the brunt of the rushing workload.
You're just being obtuse at this point.


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