Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Ice]

Outside of running very fast he is nothing like J. Ross.

[mild]

I hate that this thread exists. I was so sure I'd be able to get him at 1.10 in my league.

[ArrylT]

Yeah I think that is the key element for Marquise Brown - is where you feel his value lies in the rookie draft. However I think that might be the same thing for many of the 2019 class. Which is the good news & the bad news. The good news is that is if Marquise Brown goes before where you feel his value lies - then you are pretty likely to get a different rookie whose draft value is similar (in relation to where you took him). The bad news is that if you're a Marquise Brown supporter, you're still not sure where he needs to be taken in a rookie draft, because so many of the other prospects also have such a wide range of outcomes.

ADP at the moment suggests early 2nd, and as Cameron Giles is arguing, that could very well be great value. But in the end it will depend on your league & where the NFL decides his draft spot is. If you need to take him before milds 1.10, and his situation is sub-optimal, his value may no longer be there.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Reality is that players aren't taken in a vacuum. Every manager needs to look who is available and decide whether they'd rather have Brown or any of the other rookies still on the board. It's easier to pick Brown over a nameless faceless option, but when you actually have choices, maybe AJ Brown or Miles Sanders has fallen out of the top 5, then it's much harder to select a 166 water-logged flea.

I have 1.11 in DLF Premuim League, and I'd probably take him at 1.11 if he's there. But I won't take him at 1.06. The value just isn't there. I'll take one of the top optioms at 1.06.

[Pet_Smith]

I've got 1.11 and 1.12 in my rookie draft - and actually love the spot. If Hollywood is still around, he'll definitely be in the conversation. I think there are a solid 12-15 Rooks this year that I'd happily have though, so if he's gone by then, I won't be disappointed, but equally at that point in the first I think he easily has the highest upside of the others that'll be left.

[Jfever]

Right. I've read a few times that his risk is baked into his ADP / price. And, I'd argue that it certainly isn't if people are thinking he is an early first round pick. Frankly, to play a little devils advocate here - is important.

The kid just had a huge red flag type procedure (The lisfranc procedure ). If he was 6'2 210 and rand a 4.35 40, and had hands of glue, this would still be an issue and a concern. Throw in the fact that he is as big as many high school 9-10th grade football players - and - you have something else to concern yourself with. Like I said earlier, I'll entertain the thought of drafting him if he is around in the 2nd. His risk IS NOT being considered if some are drafting him in the early to mid 1st. IN that situation, people are seeing what they want to see and ignoring what they want to ignore. I think this says a lot about the draft class itself.

[Cameron Giles]

Right. I've read a few times that his risk is baked into his ADP / price. And, I'd argue that it certainly isn't if people are thinking he is an early first round pick. Frankly, to play a little devils advocate here - is important.

The kid just had a huge red flag type procedure (The lisfranc procedure ). If he was 6'2 210 and rand a 4.35 40, and had hands of glue, this would still be an issue and a concern. Throw in the fact that he is as big as many high school 9-10th grade football players - and - you have something else to concern yourself with. Like I said earlier, I'll entertain the thought of drafting him if he is around in the 2nd. His risk IS NOT being considered if some are drafting him in the early to mid 1st. IN that situation, people are seeing what they want to see and ignoring what they want to ignore. I think this says a lot about the draft class itself.

Let's recap what we know about the dangers of LisFranc and being 166 pounds as a WR:

1. There is not a relevant sample size of WRs with Brown's weight and productivity not panning out due to lack of size. In fact 6 of the NFL's top 11 wide outs in terms of deep receiving yardage last year were 5-10 or shorter and 190 pounds or less.

2. LisFranc may decrease your production after surgery.

3. LisFranc may not decrease your production after surgery.

Looks like we learned a lot of nothing. The risks being discussed aren't backed by any data that clearly points to a foregone conclusion. However, you're still currently being provided a discount as if they do, or as if he failed his medical. Brown is currently ranked below multiple worse prospects in rookie ADP at #16.

Yet...Brown is still being rated highly by reliable draft experts as a Day 1 or early Day 2 pick. Brown at heart should be an early to mid first in this class on talent and skill. There are not 15 better prospects than him. His tape stands out too hard to believe he's merely a middle 2nd round pick in a class with no depth.

[Jfever]

If you draft him with your 1.04, 1.03, 1.02, 1.01, or what ever - there is no discount. Because there is no data associated with the lisfranc and him being 166 lb, that isn't a good thing, or a bad thing, its just a thing. It's a thing that you have to weigh out for yourself. I'm not saying that there are 15 better prospects than him, I am saying that for different drafting styles, and in different leagues with different scoring and roster requirements, that a couple qb may be considered, a few TE may be considered, a few rb needy teams will draft by need (it happens in every league, every year), and, a few will draft a few other wr in front of him because - he is the size of an average JV high school player and / or - he recently underwent a somewhat risky procedure on his knee. Right or wrong, by all accounts, knowing what we know and don't know right now - I'd expect him to slide a bit. Now, if he gets drafted to a good spot, He will rise, if he gets drafted to a perceived poor spot, he'll slide. There just seems like a lot of certainty by a few in regard to M.Brown. I am intrigued but, I'm not going to try to trade up to draft him. Simple as that.

[Dynos]

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... aft-class/

[Ice]

Personally, I could care less about perceived discounts of others in a rookie draft. Once an owner determines his top players, draft them if possible based on talent and what others ahead are predicted to do.

Drafting is always about risk tolerance for me. My top 4 WR's in this draft are: D.K., M. Brown, AJ, Brown, and K. Harmon. My top RB is Jacobs then Sanders.

In one draft I have 1,2,5,6. I moved into these picks due to my evaluations of the WR group.

Very good chance I take D.K. and Jacobs and hope to get 2 of M. Brown, AJ, Brown or Harmon. I tend to have patience with WR's.

While I have M. Brown #2 overall due to upside he has the best chance to fall due to size and injury. I have Jacobs #5 but payback of RB's are faster and location is huge so that pushes him up.

Bottom line, the chess match will be what I think pick 3 and 4 will do which will could drive pick 2. In the event Jacobs goes to a bad situation I will most likely take D.K and AJ Brown even though I rate M. Brown a little higher long term.

The only reason I will let him fall to pick 6 is injury and the group think of his weight and injury. I am convinced he will be a star at some point. I am also convinced AJ and Harmon will shine at this level.

D.K. IMO has massive upside and while there is risk there, the pay back is generational good so he is a near lock at 1.1 in spite of the risk in my view.

One thing I know is if I miss on M. Brown I will trade for him at some point if possible.

All that said, my top 4 WR's are all close so location will matter to a degree given the disparity of QB talent.

[Cameron Giles]

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... aft-class/

All of it. Don't go against the film.

[Cameron Giles]

If you draft him with your 1.04, 1.03, 1.02, 1.01, or what ever - there is no discount. Because there is no data associated with the lisfranc and him being 166 lb, that isn't a good thing, or a bad thing, its just a thing. It's a thing that you have to weigh out for yourself. I'm not saying that there are 15 better prospects than him, I am saying that for different drafting styles, and in different leagues with different scoring and roster requirements, that a couple qb may be considered, a few TE may be considered, a few rb needy teams will draft by need (it happens in every league, every year), and, a few will draft a few other wr in front of him because - he is the size of an average JV high school player and / or - he recently underwent a somewhat risky procedure on his knee. Right or wrong, by all accounts, knowing what we know and don't know right now - I'd expect him to slide a bit. Now, if he gets drafted to a good spot, He will rise, if he gets drafted to a perceived poor spot, he'll slide. There just seems like a lot of certainty by a few in regard to M.Brown. I am intrigued but, I'm not going to try to trade up to draft him. Simple as that.

To each his own. I think people look back on drafts and kick themselves for passing on players for poor reasons. Brown has the potential to be that player. The two main reasons that people are pessimistic about have no historical evidence in their favor. Use it to your advantage and draft a player who arguably has the best game tape of any WR in this class.

Even if he's no longer a value and rises to 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, etc, the game tape is still the same.

[Phaded]

Marquise Brown is one of two WRs who will actually be attending the draft.
(the other is Metcalf)
History usually suggests that those that attend are going early-ish (most are probably first rounders).

If you are interested in all 23; click here.

[Ice]

Marquise Brown is one of two WRs who will actually be attending the draft.
(the other is Metcalf)
History usually suggests that those that attend are going early-ish (most are probably first rounders).

If you are interested in all 23; click here.

Thanks, usually if ones that attend have a real good feel they won't be in the green room on day 2. Both of these players should get drafted in the first round even in a very strong defensive draft.

[Cult of Dionysus]

At this time, pre NFL Draft, no sane manager is taking Marqise Brown at 1.01 - 1.03. That simply makes no sense. It would be out of pure paranoia that someone else might snatch him up that early. Everything suggests that he is currently a 1.06 - 2.04 pick, depending on your league settings and saviness of your other owners. Indeed, I think 1.06 is extremely early, and I doubt anyone outside of the few big-time Marq166 Brown proponents here in this thread would take him at 1.06.