Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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Cameron Giles
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Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:34 pm

I'm not very high on this class. I think it lacks star upside and quality depth. That said, Marquise Brown is a player you should be targeting in your drafts and currently represents the best value.

Going into the draft, Brown is already discounted heavily. So, if you're not completely sold on him, who cares? Your risk is baked into the price and will continue to be unless he lands in an undeniable situation with an elite QB. He is not listed in the Top 10 of rookie ADP or as a Top 5 WR. The reasons are obvious, so let's get the downside out of the way first.

Brown is 166 pounds, which doesn't meet the typical threshold of a WR1 in dynasty. However, weight is not a static number. NFL players frequently gain and lose weight, so it shouldn't be a huge factor in your optimism or pessimism, especially in a less physical league where rules have been shifted to benefit offensive players.

Brown suffered a LisFranc injury towards the end of the season. It's a more than notable injury. Some studies show that the injury is unlikely to cause a significant decrease in production and ability (https://lermagazine.com/news/in-the-mom ... takes-time) and some studies show that it can (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29708569). Le'Veon Bell overcame the injury, while Santonio Holmes was never the same after it. There are other examples, but it's hard to predict what will happen because of the injury.

But, the silver lining remains that you're already being given a discount because of the injury. These are the two most notable things to be concerned about. After that? You're getting one of the best players in this class.

Brown is arguably the best playmaker in this class. He's explosive, fast, quick, and agile.
Image
(https://giant.gfycat.com/JoyfulLoathsomeBellfrog.mp4)

This isn't anything glorious, but it just shows how dangerous he is in space. DB's respect the speed/big play and give him the cushion and he still makes them pay.

Pick your poison. Now, we've seen a ton of speedy college WR's do this, as it typically comes with the territory. But Brown is an advanced route runner. He creates separation effortlessly at all three levels of the field, understands the finer points in running a route and has excellent footwork and patient.

Brown is fantastic at selling a route.
Image
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YbpLe2v ... tience.gif)

Brown sells the shallow cross and turns it into a go route and creates a huge window for Murray in a zone.

Here's another one.
Image
(https://giant.gfycat.com/ClumsyHardtofindAnaconda.mp4)

This isn't fair. Brown sells a route up field on the outside, stops on a dime with a quick stutter and creates space to win on a slant route.

Another one where Brown shows patience, quick footwork and creates excellent throwing windows for his QB
Image
(https://giant.gfycat.com/SerpentineIndelibleGoat.mp4)

Here Brown stutter steps on a post route and while the safety doesn't completely bite, he hesitates just enough for Brown's speed to take over and get past him for a TD.
Image
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4sfYZiG ... _Route.gif)

Marquise looks like he's picked up a thing or two from Antonio. Either way, his route running, separation skills, footwork and big play ability are off the charts. And he still has room to get better as a route runner. I see a lot of what Calvin Ridley represented last year as a route runner in Brown and to me he has some Tyreek Hill/Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs to his game. He's an advanced route technician already coming into the league and has made life easy for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive seasons.

For a WR who's currently being mocked in the late 1st or worse of rookie drafts, he's by far the best value available right now and someone who I'd be seeking out. On top of it, he still has a good chance to go Day 1, or at worst early Day 2. So, if you value draft pedigree, it will be there. But, no other WR has come close to showing what Brown has on tape last season.

Daniel Jeremiah currently has him 16th on his top prospects available and Matt Harmon (Reception Pereception) is starting to take note of him as well. (https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 0614325248)
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:37 pm

Damn it Cameron..
You did this to me with Michael Thomas, now you're doing it to me again..
I was hoping he would fly under the radar..

FYI: Not all your images work.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby DynastyDeepDive » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:41 pm

Guy reminds me of Washington last year. Depending on where he lands will determine his immediate value. I like the skill set of Brown though. I have him ranked in the top 10 for sure.
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:54 pm

In one of my drafts I am hoping he is there at 1.5. I have him as the 2nd best WR in this draft behind only DK on stud upside. Some risk due to size but think he has major stud potential. Holding 4 picks in the top 6, unless he goes 3,4 he is a lock for one of these picks. There is a chance I take him 1.2.

I am a big fan of the WR's in this draft and he is a phenomenal WR. Betting he slips due to size and injury but concerned if I don't grab him at 1,2 he may not even be there at 5.

His tape is outstanding. I haven't talked too much about him but he have mentioned he is a cross between Tyreek Hill and his cousin A. Brown.

Really like this player. He is way more than just a deep threat. Quickness is off the charts good!
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:59 pm

Pick #35.
Make it happen, Mayock.

Cameron Giles
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:02 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:37 pm
Damn it Cameron..
You did this to me with Michael Thomas, now you're doing it to me again..
I was hoping he would fly under the radar..

FYI: Not all your images work.
Give it a refresh, they should appear. I was off on Isaiah Ford a few years ago, though it's mostly been because of injury.

Brown may still fly under the radar. Just remind people that he's 166 pounds and can't gain weight.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby lukkynumber13 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:03 pm

Thank you so much for the post! Super informative and I love the GIFs
BOTH TEAMS BELOW ARE 1QB

TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
BREES, Ryan, Herbert, Tua
COOK/JACOBS/MIXON, Dobbins, Hunt, Swift, Singletary, Bell, B Hill, Wilkins
NUK/HILL/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, M Brown, D Johnson, Ruggs, Hilton, Pittman, G Davis, Ford, Wims
KITTLE, Waller, Akins, H Bryant
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league. The Bosa Bros, D-Buck, and Cam Jordan are my main studs.
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get 1.5x bump in scoring
LAMAR, Rivers, Cousins, Darnold, J Love, Brissett
SAQUON/MIXON/GORDON, Carson, Dobbins, Ingram, D Freeman, Clement
NUK/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN/JULIO, Thielen, DJ Moore, Lamb, Alshon
KITTLE/HENRY, James O
-
Danielle Hunter, Aaron Donald, and Chris Jones are the cornerstones of my IDP squad. LBs and DBs are rag tag for now.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:05 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:02 pm
Phaded wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:37 pm
Damn it Cameron..
You did this to me with Michael Thomas, now you're doing it to me again..
I was hoping he would fly under the radar..

FYI: Not all your images work.
Give it a refresh, they should appear.
Only 2 of them working for me as well.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:07 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:59 pm
Pick #35.
Make it happen, Mayock.
:D
I will be pretty shocked if Brown gets out of the first round. Not sure he even gets past pick 20. It really depends on the medical reports IMO not his size. He has all kinds of elite traits. He looked great with Mayfield and Murray in college.

If he does slip out of round 1 and the Cards take Murray, he will be the top pick in round 2.
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Cameron Giles
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:08 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:05 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:02 pm
Phaded wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:37 pm
Damn it Cameron..
You did this to me with Michael Thomas, now you're doing it to me again..
I was hoping he would fly under the radar..

FYI: Not all your images work.
Give it a refresh, they should appear.
Only 2 of them working for me as well.
Just edited it to put the URL's underneath the gifs.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby jordanzs » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:20 pm

I just listened to a podcast where they mock drafted him to The Chiefs in round 1, as Tyreek's potential replacement. That sure would push his ADP up through the roof.....

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:21 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:08 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:05 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:02 pm


Give it a refresh, they should appear.
Only 2 of them working for me as well.
Just edited it to put the URL's underneath the gifs.
Sometimes if i take out the "s" from "https://" it will start working. However I noticed the broken ones end in .mp4 which is likely why they aren't working.

Nice write-up though. Thanks.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:04 pm

Thanks for the post. Personally I'd rather have the other Brown, A.J. Since he's considered a lesser prospect by the media to this point. I like him more than Marquise. I'd consider Marquise if he falls to me at 1.08 in my SF/TE premium, which is also a bestball.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:01 pm

I was high on Isaiah Ford - no success so far. :(

I was not that high on Michael Thomas - and we saw what happened. :oops:

So what are you going to give me to not be high on Marquis Brown. :lol:

Kidding - he is someone I am still evaluating. Is it possible he goes to the same NFL team as Kyler Murray? I think his landing spot will be dependant on what an NFL Teams need is - not every team is going to have him on their board.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby JFever » Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:16 pm

Man.... he looks damn good. Very impressive. Landing spot and when he gets drafted will be telling. Not gonna lie though. 166 LB is a red flag for me. 🚩
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