Way Too Early 2020 Draft Rankings/The "Next yr is Better" Myth

[Johnny Canuck]

I thought it might be interesting to take an early look at the 2020 class. It seems that many dynasty owners figure 2020 is a great class, so looking at a few of them one year out (potentially depending on who declares) should hopefully give us SOME insight (not a ton - but some) into how to value these draft 2020 picks.

My April 2019, 2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
1. Travis Etienne RB - 1736 yards, 26 TDs
2. D'Andre Swift RB - 1346 yards, 13 TDs
3. Jonathan Taylor RB - 2254 yards, 16 TDs
4. Jerry Jeudy WR - 1315 yards, 14 TDs
5. Najee Harris RB - 790 yards, 4 TDs
6. JK Dobbins RB - 1346 yards, 12 TDs
7. Laviska Shenault Jr WR - 1126 yards, 11 TDs
8. Tee Higgins WR - 936 yards, 12 TDs
9. Cam Akers RB - 851 yards, 8 TDs
10. Trey Sermon RB - 1128 yards, 13 TDs
11. Eno Benjamin RB - 1905 yards, 18 TDs
12. AJ Dillon RB - 1149 yards, 11 TDs

HM:
Albert Okwuegbunam TE
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Justin Herbert, QB
Jake Fromm, QB
Jalen Reagor, WR

Anyone that watch alot of NCAA have any insight into the 2020 class, and this potential ranking order (and/or players missed). Obvs lots of time for things to shift till the 2020 draft season.

[problemsolver]

Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina

6'3" 220 lbs

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... rds-1.html

Stats somewhat suppressed by the meh Gamecock offense and the presence of Deebo Samuels.

Before he announced he was coming back for his senior season :hallelujah: he was often mentioned in the top 5 WR in this years draft.

[Hottoddies]

I think the biggest take away from this list is that if you're a team in need of a RB next year that any random 1st round pick should do the trick.

[jaykay22]

Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota will be a first rounder.

[FantasyFreak]

Bryan Edwards WR South Carolina

6'3" 220 lbs

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... rds-1.html

Stats somewhat suppressed by the meh Gamecock offense and the presence of Deebo Samuels.

Before he announced he was coming back for his senior season :hallelujah: he was often mentioned in the top 5 WR in this years draft.

He did not impress me much this year. Heard he's not a great athlete, either. Just not sure what he does really well. I think if he was that great a talent, he would have done more this year. We shall see. If he tears it up this year without Deebo, I'll reconsider. If he doesn't, scratch him off my board, he is a senior and has no excuses why he can't be the man I S Carolina this year. He needs to light it up for me to believe, at this point.

[Friction]

Seeing this list makes me less excited about 2020. Lots will change, so we all have to take it with a big grain of salt of course. More specifically, 9-12. I also do not think Etienne will be the 1.01 in a year anywhere, but it is a really hard exercise this far in advance and with a years worth of games to play, to rank them.

[Johnny Canuck]

Seeing this list makes me less excited about 2020. Lots will change, so we all have to take it with a big grain of salt of course. More specifically, 9-12. I also do not think Etienne will be the 1.01 in a year anywhere, but it is a really hard exercise this far in advance and with a years worth of games to play, to rank them.

I'm not sure that these 2020 guys D(-1) year stats should put you off. Like you say, with a yrs worth of games to go, a fair bit will change. I'm not actually convinced that D(-1) scrimmage stats have a ton of predictive value tbh, but thought this might be a worthwhile exercise. After digging in, there is some info that can be gleaned, but not a ton.

For comparisons sake, here's the 2019 top 12 Rookies, in their D(-1) yr.
*All stats are total scrimmage yards
**All ADPs are taken from FFCalc

2019
1. N'Keal Harry WR - 1207 yards, 8 TDs
2. David Montgomery RB - 1442 yards, 11 TDs
3. DK Metcalf WR - 646 yards, 7 TDs
4. Kelvin Harmon WR - 1017 yards, 4 TDs
5. Rodney Anderson RB - 1442 yards, 18 TDs
6. Noah Fant TE - 493 yards, 11 TDs
7. Damien Harris RB - 1091 yards, 11 TDs
8. Marquise Brown WR - 1095 yards, 7 TDs
9. AJ Brown WR - 1252 yards, 11 TDs
10. Josh Jacobs RB - 452 yards, 3 TDs
11. Hakeem Butler WR - 697 yards, 7 TDs
12. Darrell Henderson RB - 1380 yards, 11 TDs

I'll also pull up some other rookie classes and their D(-1) draft yr scrimmage stats.

2018
1. Saquon Barkely RB - 1898 yards, 22 TDs
2. Royce Freeman RB - 1089 yards, 10 TDs
3. Sony Michel RB - 989 yards, 5 TDs
4. Kerryon Johnson RB - 1020 yards, 11 TDs
5. Derrius Guice RB - 1493 yards, 16 TDs
6. DJ Moore WR - 692 yards, 6 TDs
7. Rashaad Penny RB - 1242 yards, 14 TDs
8. Ronald Jones RB - 1158 yards, 13 TDs
9. Nick Chubb RB - 1216 yards, 9 TDs
10. Calvin Ridley WR - 790 yards, 8 TDs
11. Courtland Sutton WR - 1246 yards, 10 TDs
12. Anthony Miller WR - 1503 yards, 15 TDs

2017
1. Leonard Fournette RB - 2206 yards, 23 TDs
2. Christian McCaffery RB - 2664 yards, 13 TDs
3. Corey Davis WR - 1440 yards, 12 TDs
4. Joe Mixon RB - 1109 yards, 11 TDs
5. Dalvin Cook RB - 1935 yards, 20 TDs
6. Mike Williams WR - 1030 yards, 6 TDs (*2014 stats - played 1 game in 2015)
7. John Ross WR - 425 yards, 5 TDs (*2014 stats - didn't play in 2015)
8. Samaje Perine RB - 1456 yards, 17 TDs
9. OJ Howard TE - 602 yards, 2 TDs
10. Alvin Kamara RB - 989 yards, 10 TDs
11. David Njoku TE - 362 yards, 1 TDs
12. D'onta Foreman RB - 736 yards, 5 TDs

And because of the glory of hindsight, let's also comp the 2014 draft class in their D(-1) yr

2014
1. Sammy Watkins WR - 805 yards, 4 TDs
2. Mike Evans WR - 1105 yards, 5 TDs
3. Bishop Sankey RB - 1688 yards, 16 TDs
4. Carlos Hyde RB - 1021 yards, 17 TDs
5. Brandin Cooks WR - 1233 yards, 5 TDs
6. Jordan Matthews WR - 1384 yards, 9 TDs
7. Kelvin Benjamin WR - 528 yards, 4 TDs
8. Devonta Freeman RB - 746 yards, 8 TDs
9. Eric Ebron TE - 625 yards, 4 TDs
10. Jeremy Hill RB - 828 yards, 12 TDs
11. Cody Latimer WR - 805 yards, 6 TDs
12. Odell Beckham JR WR - 713 yards, 2 TDs
13. Marqise Lee WR - 1827 yards, 14 TDs
14. Tre Mason RB - 1088 yards, 8 TDs
15. Davante Adams WR - 1312 yards, 14 TDs

Obviously a ton can change in one yr for these players. Depth charts/overall opportunities/etc change, but I still think this is somewhat interesting information. It does change the overall topic of this thread though, and I'll edit the title to reflect it.

IMO, it somewhat dispels the "next draft yr is better" saying. I seen multiple posters/podcast hosts/article writers state that the 2020 class looked great, while the 2019 class looked somewhat lackluster. Been hearing this since last yr. But in reality, I think we just don't really know until the specific draft class plays out their draft yr. If we use breaking 1000 yards in their D(-1) yr as a benchmark, the number of top 12 ranked players that hit that threshold was: 2020 (9), 2019 (8), 2018 (9), 2017 (7), 2014 (5). Looking at these D(-1) numbers alone, we'd think that 2014 & 2017 were the worst classes; but we know that both 2017 & 2014 were great draft classes. Prognosticating these draft classes so early is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

Yes, you can likely make somewhat realistic assumptions about the elite D(-1) statistical outliers, say something like, I think these elite D(-1) players will all be first rounders, maybe even high end first rounders. This is somewhat evidenced by the D(-1) stats of: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, and potentially Travis Etiene & Jonathan Taylor. With that said, a ton can change, and there's always going to landmines players that kill it in college but not in the pros (Bishop Sankey & Marqise Lee to a degree), and cliff jump players that were good in their D(-1) season but tank in their draft yr, look at Bryce Love (still like him, but he would of been a top 5 pick last yr).

I didn't intend for this thread to go this way, but once I started digging up stats it just took a left turn at Albuquerque. For these reasons, I think that "next yr is the best yr" saying needs to taken with a grain of salt, a fairly big grain. Yes, the fantasy community can tell if a draft class has an obvious outlier, but other than those specific players, too much can change too quickly, to definitely state that one class is better than the other without the benefit of hindsight.

To bring this back full circle to the 2020 class. I would assume that this time next yr, the dynasty/NFL community will be very high on the D(-1) outliers: Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, and Jerry Jeudy. Unless someone comes outta nowhere, those are the likely top picks in next yrs fantasy drafts.

[sjcourtney56]

I only want to add that CeeDee Lamb should be added to any list of top players for the 2020 draft.

[Friction]

It has nothing to do with the stats, did not even look at those to be honest. I more meant from watching a lot of college ball and seeing a rough list. Have no issues with it, and its a tough task at this stage of the game. I more meant in if this was the actual rankings, I would not be as excited with stockpiled picks, or the next year is better myth. I also am not a huge tape guy, analytics, stats. I just watch a ton of college and go off eye test, landing spot, and gut. Pretty much. Its not an exact science and I surely would not claim it is. My scouting is not great, but I tend to stay away from the Group Think and using somebody else's rankings, whether professionals or sites like this. I may use as a resource if i feel I am torn though, but none of us have even close to a superb track record (if we are being honest). Couple thoughts, again based solely on the eye test and not a whole lot else:

Etienne: did not feel he was much of anything until Lawrence took over 100%, second half of the year. Travis did look good down the stretch, even great at times. Prior to that, I felt he performed similar to Gallman did at Clemson.

Sermon: Watch all OU games, always have. Anderson was far superior to him both running and catching the ball, but this is more of an indictment to Rodney, than a disservice to Trey. I think Trey will put up numbers next year with Hurts, but I also think Brooks or whomever will really cut into touches and at this point have Sermon as an earl to mid 2nd.

Swift: I do not see him anywhere in the ballpark of Gurley or Chubb at this stage, maybe that will change and maybe its an unfair comparison. I think he is a solid to good prospect now, but Holyfield at times looked better (whatever that meant at the time). Overall, I like his game, but I end up liking lots of college kids games and they don't translate at all.

Akers: Vastly overrated at this point and he has done little to back up his hype. Jacques Patrick outplayed him most the year, which I do not think is a testament to him, as it is a downgrade to Cam. The Noles are a dumpster fire of sorts offensively and their line was very poor. I need to see him take a big leap and he was a very touted guy coming out. He looks the part at times, but those have been few and far between.

I like Taylor, Jeudy, Najee, Higgins, CeeDee, Shenault, the other Clemson WR (drawing a blank), Dobbins (cooled some). Have not watched a ton of Benjamin, the Ducks are hard to gauge for some reason. Think of all the great Rbs and WRs they have had in the last 10 years.

I am not knocking your list or anything, just the hype on this class, which is nothing new. I think it has a ways to go before we declare it a deep and powerful class. When one pushes all their chips into next year's class, i like to know its' odds are better than the usual percentage of rookie hits. We seem to almost forget to bake into the investment cost that you are not even drafting these guys for over a year, let alone getting a ROI.

TL/DR; I am definitely open to discussion on these guys and in no way claim to do much more than be an avid and tenured college football fan. I convinced my dad when i was 5 to take a road trip to Norman so i could run on the football field in my Sooners gear. I did not live close, we went. I know we have some people on here that are great at film break down and player analysis, so am looking forward to some of these guys for sure!

[Johnny Canuck]

Appreciate the eye test insights Friction. I don't really get the chance to watch a ton of college ball, so I was mostly going off whatever tape, and stats I could dig up. Nice to hear from someone that watches it quite a bit

[C_n_red_again]

Couldn’t disagree more with your take on ettienne. The tape shows he’s been good since his freshman year.

[ninotoreS]

'19 has become a better looking FF/DF class than I expected it to be at this time last year, by grace of its TEs and WRs. Pessimistic expectations regarding it's QBs and RBs seem to have borne out, however.

[Friction]

Couldn’t disagree more with your take on ettienne. The tape shows he’s been good since his freshman year.

I'm open to hearing more. I'm not a tape watcher, but Clemson gets plenty of exposure, so I have watched a lot of games live. I thought he and their rush offense did not look the greatest with Bryant at the helms so maybe it's more an indictment on him and overall structure or lackthereof in his short stint. I thought Etienne made leaps and bounds once the reigns were fully transferred over to Lawrence, as did the offense as a whole. Again, just going off initial take and memory of it, but I remember them struggling to score points/gain yards against even soft opponents, especially in first halves. That I know I am remembering correctly. So maybe it's more that than anything, since a RB will struggle if the offense does not move the ball or score, usually.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Why is the 2019 QB clas being panned so badly? I think K. Murray has a legitimate shot at being an elite talent early on, in the mold of Russel Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Haskins has potential to be solid, if he goes to a good situation. I’d like to see him sit in 2019, behind Eli in NY or another aging vet. The others are all big question marks, but that’s the case with most QBs.

[FantasyFreak]

Why is the 2019 QB clas being panned so badly? I think K. Murray has a legitimate shot at being an elite talent early on, in the mold of Russel Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Haskins has potential to be solid, if he goes to a good situation. I’d like to see him sit in 2019, behind Eli in NY or another aging vet. The others are all big question marks, but that’s the case with most QBs.

I think he has the talent, but I think he'd be an outlier if he does become elite. He only has 1 year of being the true starter, and that is the first red flag, as I believe there is a correlation to overall success and experience in college. Size is of course the other, and the fact he's going to a team with a coach who is a rookie himself, with a poor OL and minimal talent at the WR/ TE position all made me move my 1.01 in a SF to get a more established QB. I think there is a high risk/high reward play with Murray. He could be really good, I think elite is less likely, and I think there is a high probability it is a disaster in Arizona (of course assuming he goes at 1.01) early on in his career.