Buy low RBs heading into draft

[Jason3123]

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

[Prison_Mike]

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

Could this also be a potential uptick for Howard? Assuming he goes to a team where he's a better fit?

Or would you sell as soon as he's traded?
(the answer probably depends on the team but either way I think a new situation would temporarily boost his value enough to sell)

[Jason3123]

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

Could this also be a potential uptick for Howard? Assuming he goes to a team where he's a better fit?

Or would you sell as soon as he's traded?
(the answer probably depends on the team but either way I think a new situation would temporarily boost his value enough to sell)

I have Howard in a league and I will just hold him. I'll need the production in season. I imagine it could be a boost to Howard because whoever trades for him actually wants him.

[Paul717]

I appreciate this thread. I added Boston Scott (who was on the waiver wire) and dropped Javon Wims. Seems a dart throw at RB is better for my team than at WR.

[Prison_Mike]

I appreciate this thread. I added Boston Scott (who was on the waiver wire) and dropped Javon Wims. Seems a dart throw at RB is better for my team than at WR.

I’ve got a few Wims shares in leagues where there are no RB dart throws available lol

[Paul717]

I appreciate this thread. I added Boston Scott (who was on the waiver wire) and dropped Javon Wims. Seems a dart throw at RB is better for my team than at WR.

I’ve got a few Wims shares in leagues where there are no RB dart throws available lol

Oh yes, agreed. 6 foot 4 and had a nice preseason for the Bears last year. Immediately added him to my CBS "Scout Team", which admittedly needs some spring cleaning (but I can't delete some of the players because I am a hoarder, lol)

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I like the Scott call. a freak athlete on philly's wide-open depth chart. If Philly doesn't draft a RB in the first few rounds, he'll start getting some hype in dynasty.

I like Scott too, but i'll be shocked if Philly doesn't

- trade for Breida
- trade for Duke Johnson
- draft an RB before Day 3

I agree with you, but for the cost of free, he's a guy who's value could jump after the draft on the outside chance none of those things happen. He's no more than a dart throw.
Breida is an interesting one I hadn't thought of. The Duke owners in my leagues seem to be holding and hoping he ends up in Philly and not selling.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Lamar Miller is what he is at this point. If you need an RB2, buy, but his upside isn't really anything interesting these days.

Duke Johnson and Kenyan Drake are interesting names to watch around draft time. They could be moved. My favorite RB buy-low right now is still Devonta Freeman. Should be a bounce back candidate after an injury plagued 2018 and was an RB1 the previous 3 years.

I haven't heard any rumors about Drake, but I'd love to see him get out of the dumpster fire in Miami.

[Vcize]

Fournette I think is the best buy-low. I see him go as late as the 5th round in some best ball drafts. I always compare him to Dalvin Cook who has missed even more time, has even less draft capital, has a worse offensive line, but consistently goes in the 2nd round as if he hasn't busted two years in a row from injury. Injuries are a worry, sure, but it's more than priced into Fournette's cost, relative to others. You're hoping he's a Julio Jones -- blue-chip talent who had to learn how to take care of his body early in his career.

The difference is that Cook has actually been efficient and looked very good when he played, whereas Fournette has been very inefficient and frankly, looked like absolute trash.

I say this as someone who was probably the biggest Fournette truther on this board when he came into the league (heading into this offseason I owned him on literally all 5 of my dynasty teams) and as someone that did not like Cook as a prospect.

Fournette just gets the ball, gets what is there, and falls over. In 2 years of NFL play his highlight reel consists of one nice spin move where he actually made a defender miss (extremely rare for him) and a couple plays where he jumped over the pile at the goaline from admittedly pretty far out.

Other than that, even his highlights are just him running for what's there, and falling over at first contact. His YPC is awful and that's not even accounting for the fact that it is boosted (as if a career 3.5ypc can be "boosted") by a 90 yard run against a busted defense where he literally just ran straight.

When you watch Cook, he actually makes moves, actually makes people miss, actually gains yards that weren't blocked. I realize Fournette isn't that type of RB, I drafted him in all my leagues because he was such a man-beast in college running unstoppably over my Gators LBs every year, but that didn't translate to the pros. It would be one thing if he were running through tackles and hard to bring down. But he's not. He makes no one miss, and he goes down with ease against NFL defenders.

I'm usually a reasonably stubborn guy. I've never jumped off a train as whole heartedly as I am with Fournette this offseason. He is a massive sell imo.

[FantasyFreak]

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

Hearing they are interested in Sanders. I think they will draft one.

[ninotoreS]

Breida is an interesting one I hadn't thought of. The Duke owners in my leagues seem to be holding and hoping he ends up in Philly and not selling.

I give the Breida speculation credibility because he made a big leap forward as a pass-catcher last season; seems to be a primary element they're looking for in their next leadback.

But regardless of Breida and Duke, I suspect Philadelphia is circling Josh Jacobs' name in red ink on their draft board.

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

Hearing they are interested in Sanders. I think they will draft one.

I think they'll draft one almost for certain. The question for me is if it ends up a Day 2 or 3 selection. If it ends up a Day 3 pick, and Howard is traded, I'm not dismissing Davis' chances. I think it's significant Nagy calls Davis a great fit. It seems apparent he wants a legit 3-down back that can do advanced pass-catching to partner with Cohen, and one fitting that bill with Day 1/2 pedigree may not fall to Chicago.

[Jason3123]

The buy low window on Mike Davis might be closing..

Per the Chicago Tribune.. "The Bears aren't just answering the phone about Jordan Howard, they're dialing out."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/f ... story.html

Might be an even larger uptick for Cohen? The Bears do not pick until 87. I imagine they would be adding someone somewhere if they do part with Howard.

Hearing they are interested in Sanders. I think they will draft one.

I agree they draft one but I will be surprised if Sanders makes it to 87. They are probably looking at day 3 RB.

[koalabear]

I reckon Latavius Murray can still be bought low. Yeah he is what he is but would anybody be surprised if he scored 8-10 TDs plus 800-900 yards next season for the Saints?

[James McGhee]

A buy-low in that his production value exceeds his cost - Mark Ingram. In that regard he's been a buy-low the past few years. If you mean buy-low in terms of the ability to sell-high later on, then he is not.

[Lord_Varys]

Fournette I think is the best buy-low. I see him go as late as the 5th round in some best ball drafts. I always compare him to Dalvin Cook who has missed even more time, has even less draft capital, has a worse offensive line, but consistently goes in the 2nd round as if he hasn't busted two years in a row from injury. Injuries are a worry, sure, but it's more than priced into Fournette's cost, relative to others. You're hoping he's a Julio Jones -- blue-chip talent who had to learn how to take care of his body early in his career.

The difference is that Cook has actually been efficient and looked very good when he played, whereas Fournette has been very inefficient and frankly, looked like absolute trash.

I say this as someone who was probably the biggest Fournette truther on this board when he came into the league (heading into this offseason I owned him on literally all 5 of my dynasty teams) and as someone that did not like Cook as a prospect.

Fournette just gets the ball, gets what is there, and falls over. In 2 years of NFL play his highlight reel consists of one nice spin move where he actually made a defender miss (extremely rare for him) and a couple plays where he jumped over the pile at the goaline from admittedly pretty far out.

Other than that, even his highlights are just him running for what's there, and falling over at first contact. His YPC is awful and that's not even accounting for the fact that it is boosted (as if a career 3.5ypc can be "boosted") by a 90 yard run against a busted defense where he literally just ran straight.

When you watch Cook, he actually makes moves, actually makes people miss, actually gains yards that weren't blocked. I realize Fournette isn't that type of RB, I drafted him in all my leagues because he was such a man-beast in college running unstoppably over my Gators LBs every year, but that didn't translate to the pros. It would be one thing if he were running through tackles and hard to bring down. But he's not. He makes no one miss, and he goes down with ease against NFL defenders.

I'm usually a reasonably stubborn guy. I've never jumped off a train as whole heartedly as I am with Fournette this offseason. He is a massive sell imo.

I appreciate you taking the time to write all that out. Gives me a lot to think about.

Just to dicker on a couple points though:
> I don't care too much about YPC. It's so devoid of context. They're ramming him into loaded boxes all day, and tons of these looks are at the goal line which hurts his YPC but boosts his TD output.
> He's not gonna juke you much, no, but his tackle breaking and power is 10/10.