Buy low RBs heading into draft

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:32 am

wickerkat1212 wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:19 am
If you have Conner make sure you have Samuels.
Unfortunately I had to trade him to get a really good deal done. Samuels is a nice handcuff, I didn't want to part with him, but sometimes you have to move a guy you want to get it done. I expect a big workload for Conner this year, too, and he got dinged up last year.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby osubuckeyeman » Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:05 pm

I traded a 2.1 for Kenyan Drake. I like the tape he has burst and is a solid ppr back. The new staff provides opportunity and if they follow the New England format he could be in the "James White" mold. Kenyan is also 25 and should be in the prime of his life physically and career-wise. I like that he is in a contract year and might be fighting for what the rest of his career could be or will be. I own Ballage as well. I bought this wreck of a roster orphan team and rebuilding it the best I can. I also own the 2.2 which made it a bit more tolerable. I like that he wrecked the Patriots and this staff got the full display of what he can do. I'm sure that performance left its mark on the coaching staff. Risk and reward. Had I waited till after the draft and they don't draft somebody early would never be able to get him at that price. If they do draft someone well no risk it no biscuit. He might still fit well in a committee especially in the pass-catching role.

I don't think there will be a back at the 2.1 talent wise better than Drake but when rebuilding in my opinion these risks are worth taking. I thought it over long and hard before starting the trade conversation with the Drake owner. It got done pretty quick.

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:11 am

Marlon Mack was a screaming buy at his price for me all off season, with the belief they would not chase Bell. If you can still get him for a mid first, do it.

“We think a lot of Marlon Mack,” Ballard says. “We think he can play on all three downs. We think he can carry the load.”

They have been praising him since last year, and he's in a top end offense and very young.
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Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby smallxl » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:25 am

Like Mack. Like Devonta Freeman and Aaron Jones too.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Bot101 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:29 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:11 am
Marlon Mack was a screaming buy at his price for me all off season, with the belief they would not chase Bell. If you can still get him for a mid first, do it.

“We think a lot of Marlon Mack,” Ballard says. “We think he can play on all three downs. We think he can carry the load.”

They have been praising him since last year, and he's in a top end offense and very young.
1.05 for Mack?

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Ice » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:41 am

Bot101 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:29 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:11 am
Marlon Mack was a screaming buy at his price for me all off season, with the belief they would not chase Bell. If you can still get him for a mid first, do it.

“We think a lot of Marlon Mack,” Ballard says. “We think he can play on all three downs. We think he can carry the load.”

They have been praising him since last year, and he's in a top end offense and very young.
1.05 for Mack?
I traded away Mack and Trubiski to get 1.1. I am a big fan of Mack.

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FuzzySignificance » Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:52 pm

Devontae Freeman, people are scared by his injury history, I guess. Aaron Jones is also in that category in some of my leagues. People heard some coach say "committee" and seem to have forgotten that ever backfield is a committee.
12 team ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 2 flex
QB: Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Kerryon Johnson, Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, Darwin Thompson
WR: Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, DeDe Westbrook, Robby Anderson, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Watson, Albert Wilson, Greg Dortch
TE: Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker, Ian Thomas, Gerald Everett

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby JFever » Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:33 pm

Some backfields are more of a committee than others though. I want no part of A.Jones if his cost is based off of rb1 values as I don’t think he’ll put up rb1 numbers week to week. I don’t trust Jones to be healthy either.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FuzzySignificance » Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:38 pm

Yeah, I've seen him going from late 2nd rounders to a late 1st. I think he's a clear value at those prices
Last edited by FuzzySignificance on Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
12 team ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 2 flex
QB: Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Kerryon Johnson, Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, Darwin Thompson
WR: Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, DeDe Westbrook, Robby Anderson, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Watson, Albert Wilson, Greg Dortch
TE: Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker, Ian Thomas, Gerald Everett

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:50 pm

FuzzySignificance wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:52 pm
Aaron Jones is also in that category in some of my leagues. People heard some coach say "committee" and seem to have forgotten that ever backfield is a committee.
Disagree. I don't think anyone considers Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley to be in committees, even if they don't get 100% of the carries.

The reason people think of Aaron Jones as a committee back is that he hasn't taken that backfield as his own. And with a new coaching staff, they may want their own guy.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby JFever » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:15 pm

They want to make sure ARodgers is protected. That is priority #1. It doesn’t matter if AJones is the more electric runner if he can’t consistanty pick up blitzes.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FuzzySignificance » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:06 am

JFever wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:15 pm
They want to make sure ARodgers is protected. That is priority #1. It doesn’t matter if AJones is the more electric runner if he can’t consistanty pick up blitzes.
Look, I'm not some Jones truther, I didn't own any shares until this year b/c I didn't like his price. If you want to wait and see if they draft someone, that makes sense. If you want to avoid the injury risk, that is also reasonable but there are some misconceptions creeping in here that are causing him to be undervalued in my estimation.

'they want rodgers to be protected'
He was the #1 rated pass protecting RB in the NFC North and #12 overall.

'he hasn't taken the backfield as his own'
Green Bay moved to him after the bye. From week 7 until his injury he saw 67% of GB's running back snaps and 78% of running back touches. The touch percentage is elite and the snap count is getting into that range.
12 team ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 2 flex
QB: Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Kerryon Johnson, Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, Darwin Thompson
WR: Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, DeDe Westbrook, Robby Anderson, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Watson, Albert Wilson, Greg Dortch
TE: Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker, Ian Thomas, Gerald Everett

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:18 am

FuzzySignificance wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:06 am
'they want rodgers to be protected'
He was the #1 rated pass protecting RB in the NFC North and #12 overall.
This is my favorite stat ever.

I don't remember which wee it was last year, but PFF tweeted that Aaron Jones was 100% in pass blocking. People went insane. As it turns out, he was 2 for 2 in pass block snaps. Also: I am the greatest passer in high school history. I was 1 for 1, 41 yards with a TD, no picks, no fumbles! I also played WR for every offensive snap.

You have to take these things in context.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby FuzzySignificance » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:31 am

For the season, he ranked #1 in the north. I agree that you have to take things in context, I also think that teams know things that we do not and that stats don't tell us and lastly that what the team thinks is the most important factor but:

1. the stats are the stats.
2. it's not some one week sample it's for the entire season.
3. the team liked him enough to give him 78% of the touches over an 8 week stretch.
12 team ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 te, 2 flex
QB: Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Kerryon Johnson, Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, Darwin Thompson
WR: Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, DeDe Westbrook, Robby Anderson, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Watson, Albert Wilson, Greg Dortch
TE: Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker, Ian Thomas, Gerald Everett

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:20 am

FuzzySignificance wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:31 am
For the season, he ranked #1 in the north. I agree that you have to take things in context, I also think that teams know things that we do not and that stats don't tell us and lastly that what the team thinks is the most important factor but:

1. the stats are the stats.
2. it's not some one week sample it's for the entire season.
3. the team liked him enough to give him 78% of the touches over an 8 week stretch.
Do you have a link to the site that has those pass blocking stats? I did a search an only find o-line stats.

I definitely agree that teams know more that us. We all agree that Jones looks like the best runner on that team, but for whatever reason, he doesn't own that backfield. I suspect pass blocking and/or poor practices.
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