Buy low RBs heading into draft

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Prison_Mike
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Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Prison_Mike » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:03 pm

Who’s on your buy low radar as we head into rookie draft season (with picks becoming more valuable)?

Comment on this list & drop your own names:

- Marlon Mack - still seems undervalued

- Kenyan Drake - new staff, no more INFINITE

- Lamar Miller - dodged FA bullets (so far)

- Royce Freeman - might be a long term play

- LeSean McCoy - is he worth a 3rd or stay away now that THE INFINITE is present?
Team 1:
12-team | Half PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: Dak, Stafford
RB: Saquon, Zeke, Coleman, Drake, J.Hill, Pollard, ito, Mostert
WR: OBJ, Kirk, Tyrell, Tate, MJJ, P.Williams, Conley
TE: Njoku, Olsen/Thomas, Jonnu

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, DST, K
QB: Dak, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Foles
RB: Zeke, Gordon, Guice, Sanders, J.Hill
WR: Hopkins, Keenan, Boyd, DJM, Gallup, Miller, Pettis, Cain, Wilson, Patrick
TE: Engram, Herndon, Ian Thomas, Knox
(Taxi): Oliver, Gaskin, Slayton, Myers

Team 3:
10-Team | PPR | 1QB - (Year 2)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLX, DST, K (shallow rosters)
QB: Ryan, Goff
RB: CMC, Fournette, Sanders, Drake, Penny
WR: Adams, OBJ, Hilton, DJ Moore, Harry, Deebo, Campbell, Parker
TE: Andrews, Henry, Herndon

Jigga94
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:07 pm

Not to detail things... But I don't think it's generally a good idea to buy these guys in the off-season. Their situations can only get worse usually
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Mostert, J. Jackson, Snell, Gus
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Dorsett, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4 (NH)

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, Deebo, C. Davis, MVS, Diontae, Lazard, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1.07-10, 2.02, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

whaley88
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby whaley88 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:10 pm

Peyton barber. Doubt bucs spend any high draft capital on rb this year. Has.shown that he is startable.

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Prison_Mike
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Prison_Mike » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:13 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:07 pm
Not to detail things... But I don't think it's generally a good idea to buy these guys in the off-season. Their situations can only get worse usually
Thats true but the risk adds to why they’re buy-lows, right? For example, I could spend a mid 1st on Mack: maybe IND signs Ajayi and he significantly eats into his production. Or maybe they don’t and I just bought a young high end RB2 before his price went way up

To your point, some here are significantly more risky than others
Team 1:
12-team | Half PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: Dak, Stafford
RB: Saquon, Zeke, Coleman, Drake, J.Hill, Pollard, ito, Mostert
WR: OBJ, Kirk, Tyrell, Tate, MJJ, P.Williams, Conley
TE: Njoku, Olsen/Thomas, Jonnu

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, DST, K
QB: Dak, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Foles
RB: Zeke, Gordon, Guice, Sanders, J.Hill
WR: Hopkins, Keenan, Boyd, DJM, Gallup, Miller, Pettis, Cain, Wilson, Patrick
TE: Engram, Herndon, Ian Thomas, Knox
(Taxi): Oliver, Gaskin, Slayton, Myers

Team 3:
10-Team | PPR | 1QB - (Year 2)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLX, DST, K (shallow rosters)
QB: Ryan, Goff
RB: CMC, Fournette, Sanders, Drake, Penny
WR: Adams, OBJ, Hilton, DJ Moore, Harry, Deebo, Campbell, Parker
TE: Andrews, Henry, Herndon

Cameron Giles
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:46 pm

Lamar Miller is what he is at this point. If you need an RB2, buy, but his upside isn't really anything interesting these days.

Duke Johnson and Kenyan Drake are interesting names to watch around draft time. They could be moved. My favorite RB buy-low right now is still Devonta Freeman. Should be a bounce back candidate after an injury plagued 2018 and was an RB1 the previous 3 years.

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Jason3123
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Jason3123 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:19 pm

I like Freeman as a buy low. Even if Atlanta drafts a RB we’ve already seen that show and his usage will be fine.

I also like Fournette, if you can get him from a frustrated owner. He won’t be cheap but I also think he’ll be much more expensive in the future.

For lower flier type players I like Chase Edmonds and D’Onta Foreman. They should be pretty cheap. Boston Scott as well.

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:42 pm

Deep dives:

Taking a buy low flier on Mike Davis could pay off exponentially, relative to how little he'd cost right this moment (assuming he's even owned). Numerous reports that Chicago is in discussions with multiple teams on trading Howard. If they do, and Chicago doesn't spend a premium pick on a rookie RB, then potentially Davis would suddenly have a role that was given 270 touches last year.

Jalen Richard right now reminds me of Darren Sproles circa his time in San Diego. He might be had as cheaply as a rookie-draft 3rd or 4th round pick.

Arians talks about Peyton Barber like he's a stud. Provided the Bucs don't draft an RB early again, the Bucs O-line probably only needs to improve a little under Arians to catapult the leadback in Tampa to fantasy RB2 status. I wouldn't fault someone dangling a rookie-draft 4th round pick for Barber right now.
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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:09 pm

Prison_Mike wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:13 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:07 pm
Not to detail things... But I don't think it's generally a good idea to buy these guys in the off-season. Their situations can only get worse usually
Thats true but the risk adds to why they’re buy-lows, right?
Exactly. Buy low assets are “buy-low” for a reason. Because there is risk.

The trick is to mitigate risk as well as you can
TEAM A - 12 teams (2018 champ, 2017 R/U)
BREES, Jimmy G, Rivers, Haskins, Dalton, Keenum
COOK/JACOBS/GURLEY, Shady, Gio, Gallman, Ollison, D Washington, M Davis, Laird, Scarlett, Ware, Rodney A
NUK/HILL/EVANS/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Edelman, Alshon, Sammy, P Campbell, Wims, Dez, Hardy
KITTLE, Waller, Herndon, Sternberger, J Graham, Eifert
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get slight bump in scoring (1st year league, tanking this year to build through 2020 draft)
DARNOLD, Carr, Rosen, Eli, Tyrod
SAQUON/MIXON, Hines, Gallman, L Miller, J Williams
NUK/EVANS/OBJ/K ALLEN/HOLLYWOOD, Coutee, Latimer
KITTLE/NJOKU, Ian Thomas, James O
-
Danielle Hunter and then a bunch of stashes for IDP

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:26 am

Barber is a hold. You won't get much but his value could spike this year if they don't add anyone. RoJo is trash.

I like Royce as a buy. I'm just not sold on Lindsay long term.

Fournette I think is the best buy-low. I see him go as late as the 5th round in some best ball drafts. I always compare him to Dalvin Cook who has missed even more time, has even less draft capital, has a worse offensive line, but consistently goes in the 2nd round as if he hasn't busted two years in a row from injury. Injuries are a worry, sure, but it's more than priced into Fournette's cost, relative to others. You're hoping he's a Julio Jones -- blue-chip talent who had to learn how to take care of his body early in his career.

I think it'll be hard to buy Mack from a savy owner. And I'm still not sure he's the long term answer there. I may be selling if anything cuz I'm not sure his value will ever be higher. But I'm probably holding because he's going to be really good this year.

Another guy I'm buying low on is Tevin Coleman. Everyone's freaked out about a 4-man RBBC in San Fran. Shanny always finds one guy to be the leader of a platoon, get 60% of RB touches including those in the money areas. To me, Coleman is clearly the best RB in that backfield. McKinnon can catch but has never been a good runner. Breida's a great runner but has never been used as a receiver. I've seen Coleman do it all in Shanny's system. Betting on talent. Cost still low.

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby kiszl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:24 am

I wouldnt call Sony Michel a buy low at this point but I do think his value is only going to go up. If he stays healthy the patriots will continue to make them a bigger part of their offense. Showed in college he could catch the ball but the presence of white makes him a good buy for the future.
10 team half ppr 1qb 2rb 2wr 1te 2 flex
Russel Wilson, Sam Darnold, N Foles, Bridgewater
TY Hilton, Courtland Sutton, D.J Moore, Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams, Pascal
Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Philip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, Kalen Ballage, J Jackson, G Edwards, Rodney Anderson
Gerald Everett, O.J Howard, Noah Fant,
2020: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
2021: 2, 2, 4, 4, 6, 7
2022: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
2023: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:43 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:19 pm
I like Freeman as a buy low. Even if Atlanta drafts a RB we’ve already seen that show and his usage will be fine.

I also like Fournette, if you can get him from a frustrated owner. He won’t be cheap but I also think he’ll be much more expensive in the future.

For lower flier type players I like Chase Edmonds and D’Onta Foreman. They should be pretty cheap. Boston Scott as well.
I like the Scott call. a freak athlete on philly's wide-open depth chart. If Philly doesn't draft a RB in the first few rounds, he'll start getting some hype in dynasty.
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I probably should have done something more productive with that time...

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:54 am

If you are a believer in Damien Williams, he is the ultimate buy-low before the draft. I've tried selling him for an early 2nd, or to move from the early 2d to around 1.07, and no one is interested. If KC doesn't draft anyone, I'll be very happy those offers were declined.
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I probably should have done something more productive with that time...

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby Prison_Mike » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:59 am

I like the Duke Johnson call. I think most owners are holding until something happens but may be able to buy low from those who expected a move to take place by now

What about a guy I keep forgetting about - Chris Thompson? Is he done? Obviously has issues staying healthy & now with Guice returning/AP resigning, I'm not sure how big his role would be (if any); but I think he's also a FA after this season
Team 1:
12-team | Half PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: Dak, Stafford
RB: Saquon, Zeke, Coleman, Drake, J.Hill, Pollard, ito, Mostert
WR: OBJ, Kirk, Tyrell, Tate, MJJ, P.Williams, Conley
TE: Njoku, Olsen/Thomas, Jonnu

Team 2:
12-Team | PPR | 1QB - (startup year)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, DST, K
QB: Dak, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Foles
RB: Zeke, Gordon, Guice, Sanders, J.Hill
WR: Hopkins, Keenan, Boyd, DJM, Gallup, Miller, Pettis, Cain, Wilson, Patrick
TE: Engram, Herndon, Ian Thomas, Knox
(Taxi): Oliver, Gaskin, Slayton, Myers

Team 3:
10-Team | PPR | 1QB - (Year 2)
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLX, DST, K (shallow rosters)
QB: Ryan, Goff
RB: CMC, Fournette, Sanders, Drake, Penny
WR: Adams, OBJ, Hilton, DJ Moore, Harry, Deebo, Campbell, Parker
TE: Andrews, Henry, Herndon

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby gopackgo » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:02 am

Go grab Aaron Jones. Packers D is improving and they'll lean on him later in games to run clock.
QB - Brady Wentz Goff
RB - K.Johnson Mack Guice D.Freeman J.White Coleman Penny R.Jones C.Thompson Hines JWilliams Smallwood
WR - Landry Lockett Watkins Boyd Goodwin Shepard Gallup MVS Crabtree
TE - Burton Gronk Jarwin
'19 Picks: 2,12,18,22,32,42
'20 Picks: 1,2,3,4,5

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Re: Buy low RBs heading into draft

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:04 am

ColdZealDonkeyStrike wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:43 am
I like the Scott call. a freak athlete on philly's wide-open depth chart. If Philly doesn't draft a RB in the first few rounds, he'll start getting some hype in dynasty.
I like Scott too, but i'll be shocked if Philly doesn't

- trade for Breida
- trade for Duke Johnson
- draft an RB before Day 3
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- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE


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