Chris Godwin Heat Check

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
IBall2
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:28 pm

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby IBall2 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:31 am

Pew Dogs wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 3:03 pm
I know that this will come across as silly, but I know someone (my best friend’s son) who volunteered at TB’s training camp for a few years who shared with me that he heard the coaches talking among themselves that they thought Godwin would eventually pass Evans as the #1. Him I believe. Whether those coaches are still there I don’t know. What I do know is that I bought where I could.
Now that's the kind of hype I like to hear!

Kurt G.O.A.T.
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:00 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 10:21 am
75 catches
1150 yards
9 TDs
this looks about right. i'd be hoping for more though.

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17049
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:05 am

Kurt G.O.A.T. wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:33 am
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 10:21 am
75 catches
1150 yards
9 TDs
this looks about right. i'd be hoping for more though.
I'd be more than content with that.

User avatar
Blueboy
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1785
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:27 pm

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Blueboy » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:24 am

Pew Dogs wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 3:03 pm
I know that this will come across as silly, but I know someone (my best friend’s son) who volunteered at TB’s training camp for a few years who shared with me that he heard the coaches talking among themselves that they thought Godwin would eventually pass Evans as the #1. Him I believe. Whether those coaches are still there I don’t know. What I do know is that I bought where I could.
Yeah well my dad works at Nintendo

12-team SF, PPR, IDP
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Wilson, Brees, Minshew, Winston, Rosen
RB: J. Taylor, CEH, Ingram, Dillon, Penny, Henderson
WR: Metcalf, Woods, AJG, Kirk, Hardman, Isabella, Campbell, Hamler, JJAW
TE: Andrews, Njoku, Asiasi, Moreau, Trautman

DL: J. Bosa, JJ Watt, J. Allen, Ferrell, Epinesa, Houston
LB: T. Edmunds, Kendricks, Mosley, T. Lewis, A. Williamson
DB: J. Adams, K. Neal, Amos, McDougald, Thornhill

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3435
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:57 am

As someone who might be acquiring Godwin, I figured I'd do some research on his situation and how it could help forecast his 2019 potential breakout.

What I found most interesting was his similarities (both as a player and the team) to JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Pittsburgh offense from 2 years ago - check out the comparison between the 2017 Steelers and 2018 Bucs, and the corresponding seasons between JuJu & Godwin:

2017 Steelers: 383 - 589 (65.0%) / 4,490 yards / 29 TDs / 15 INTs
2018 Tampa: 408 - 625 (65.3%) / 5,350 yards / 36 TDs / 26 (!) INTs

2017 JuJu: 58 catches / 917 yards / 15.8ypc / 7 TDs
2018 Godwin: 59 catches / 842 yards / 14.3ypc / 7 TDs

2017 Steelers went on to lose 190 primary targets that season (106 from Bell & 84 from Bryant), opening up more of an opportunity for JuJu that helped lead to his breakout 2018 season.

2018 Tampa are losing 180 primary targets this season (105 from Humphries & 74 from D-Jax), potentially opening up more of an opportunity for Godwin and his potential breakout 2019 season.

I don't think Godwin is quite as talented as JuJu is as a player and I don't think it's fair to expect a breakout to the same degree that JuJu just experienced. But Evans can still be the #1 alpha WR, and Godwin can finish as a high-end WR #2 or even low-end WR #1 - both of those things can be true. Just based on that offense, the situation, competition for targets, and likely game script all season, I think it's very possible that Godwin sees 130 targets, and based on last year's efficiency measures, he would parlay those targets into 80 / 1,150 / 9, good enough for 213 .5PPR points, which translates to the WR 11 - 13 range based on last year.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, J. Hurts, B. Mayfield
RB: M. Sanders, C. Edwards-Helaire, J. Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, M. Gaskin, T. Pollard, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards, P. Lindsay, B. Scott
WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, Di. Johnson, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, D. Mooney, P. Williams, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, I. Smith Jr., R. Gronkowski

2020 Champion :clap:

2021 Picks: 1.08 / 2.05 / 3.10 / 4.10
2022 Picks: 2, 3, 4

Lord_Varys
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:19 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am

^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.

Jigga94
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9177
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:39 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am
^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.
Heat check...
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: [b]Mahomes, Ryan,[/b] Minshew, Trubisky, Mariota
RB: [b]Saquon, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt,[/b] Penny, Snell
WR: [b]AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel,[/b] G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: [b]Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Tonyan,[/b] Irv
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

Lord_Varys
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:19 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:47 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:39 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am
^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.
Heat check...
Lol. I just think JuJu's gotten the opportunity a little earlier than Godwin has. I see them both make really great plays.

User avatar
JFever
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6539
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby JFever » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:50 am

Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am
^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.
:wall: :nono:

Not to mention that TB is not Pitt. Winston is not Big Ben. Some incredibly wishful thinking here. It isn't a bad thing if Godwin is a mid to high end wr2 people. The assumption that he passes Evens is beyond silly at this moment in time.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3435
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:31 am

JFever wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:50 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am
^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.
:wall: :nono:

Not to mention that TB is not Pitt. Winston is not Big Ben. Some incredibly wishful thinking here. It isn't a bad thing if Godwin is a mid to high end wr2 people. The assumption that he passes Evens is beyond silly at this moment in time.
Nowhere in my post did I suggest that Winston is Ben and that Godwin is JuJu. The only *extrapolating* that I did was based on Godwin's numbers last year on a hypothetical increase in # of targets, catching passes from.....Winston & Fitzpatrick.

Also, I directly stated that Evans could still be the #1 alpha WR and Godwin could still finish as a high-end WR #2 - both of those things can be true.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, J. Hurts, B. Mayfield
RB: M. Sanders, C. Edwards-Helaire, J. Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, M. Gaskin, T. Pollard, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards, P. Lindsay, B. Scott
WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, Di. Johnson, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, D. Mooney, P. Williams, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, I. Smith Jr., R. Gronkowski

2020 Champion :clap:

2021 Picks: 1.08 / 2.05 / 3.10 / 4.10
2022 Picks: 2, 3, 4

User avatar
IBall2
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:28 pm

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby IBall2 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:05 am

The biggest difference between TB and PIT is the TE position. I imagine Howard will get a lot more looks this year with the vacated targets. Whereas no TEs in PIT saw a drastic increase in targets last year without Bell/Bryant.

djeternal2
Captain
Captain
Posts: 973
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:52 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby djeternal2 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:09 pm

IBall2 wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:05 am
The biggest difference between TB and PIT is the TE position. I imagine Howard will get a lot more looks this year with the vacated targets. Whereas no TEs in PIT saw a drastic increase in targets last year without Bell/Bryant.
Really? I don't disagree the TE position is a difference. I would classify the biggest difference being Winston to Big Ben.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
DL - Watt, K Clark, Q Williams
LB - D Jones, D Bush
DB - K Neal, Bell

DLF Early Birds - 16 tm SF (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Damian Williams, J Howard, Duke, AP, Gore
WR - Julio, Golladay, Kirk, Stills, Manny Sanders, N Harry
TE - Jarwin, Gesicki, Boyle, Sprinkle

Lord_Varys
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:19 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:14 pm

JFever wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:50 am
Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:17 am
^^ The goods ^^

Except Godwin's just as talented as JuJu IMO.
:wall: :nono:

Not to mention that TB is not Pitt. Winston is not Big Ben. Some incredibly wishful thinking here. It isn't a bad thing if Godwin is a mid to high end wr2 people. The assumption that he passes Evens is beyond silly at this moment in time.
I understand that we are fantasy football players, and so we tend to get wrapped up in fantasy footballl output as the be all end all.

I'm just talking from a straight talent perspective, when I watch these guys play... They're different players but I don't see a huge talent difference.

kmbryant09
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3435
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:59 pm

New Godwin owner here. Acquired him and a 2020 2nd for D. Williams and R. Armstead (he's a Fournette owner).

I think I like his situation more than the player, but was happy to add him relatively cheap and think he can be a solid WR #2 this season.
10-team/.5 PPR/5 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te)
QB: K. Murray, J. Hurts, B. Mayfield
RB: M. Sanders, C. Edwards-Helaire, J. Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, A. Gibson, M. Gaskin, T. Pollard, C. Edmonds, G. Edwards, P. Lindsay, B. Scott
WR: A.J. Brown, C. Ridley, Di. Johnson, O. Beckham Jr., J. Reagor, D. Mooney, P. Williams, Q. Cephus
TE: E. Engram, I. Smith Jr., R. Gronkowski

2020 Champion :clap:

2021 Picks: 1.08 / 2.05 / 3.10 / 4.10
2022 Picks: 2, 3, 4

User avatar
joeylitz
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:52 am

Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby joeylitz » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:53 pm

I am a Godwin owner and I ALWAYS find myself believing the hype when I am an owner, only to be disappointed later.
“This is Devonte Parker’s year!”
“Prosise is healthy and gonna roll this year!”
“Jerrick McKinnon is gonna break out!”

I’m fairly certain this is the off-season I trade Godwin...and then I regret it later.
2016 Frozen Tundra Dynasty League Champions
12 Team Dynasty, PPR, 1QB-2RB-3WR-1TE-1FLEX-1PK-1DST

QB: Brees. Wentz, Winston, Rudolph
RB: L. Bell, J. Conner, Michel. McKinnon, L. Miller, Montgomery, T. Riddick, Prosise, J. Conner,
WR: A. Robinson, Woods, M. Jones, Godwin, Boyd, Crabtree, Moncrief, Gabriel, C. Henderson, J. Washington, J. Moore
TE: D. Walker. Hooper, I. Thomas
K: Elliott
DST: DEN. KC

Draft:
1.08: Hockenson
2.08: JAWS
3.08:


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: nathanq42 and 5 guests