Chris Godwin Heat Check

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Jason3123
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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Jason3123 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:17 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:51 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:31 pm
dm1129 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:05 pm
Part of what is wrong with Winston is mechanical, but his greatest flaw is between the ears...always has been and always will be and Arians will not help in that regard one iota. TB was a top offense last year for fantasy and that was with a journeyman outplaying Winston for much of the year. Can Winston put up good numbers this year? Absolutely, but it will not be because of him, it will be in spite of him. Think Bortles while he was putting up great fantasy numbers. Also, the idea that Arians is a QB whisperer is false. His real track record is far from his supposed legend.
Yeah I disagree on this. Jameis has never been as bad as Bortles. Jameis’s issues have been turnovers. He got off to a bad start last season but was very good in 2017 and was also pretty good after he got his job back. Fitzpatrick outplayed him for about 4 games, not the season. Jameis had a 13-4 TD:INT ratio after coming back and a career high completion % and maintained a 7.9 YPA. His best days are ahead of him.
Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.
It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.

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Bot101
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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Bot101 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:54 am

KingsKing wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:19 pm
Bot101 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:15 pm
So since I may be looking at Godwin through rose colored glasses, whats his value in 2019 rookie picks?
I just turned down 1.05 straight up for him.
Pre draft I would only want N’keal Harry ahead of him , would bump Jacobs ahead of him too if he landed in KC for example
Wow thats pretty bold isnt it?

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby KingsKing » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:01 pm

Bot101 wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:54 am
KingsKing wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:19 pm
Bot101 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:15 pm
So since I may be looking at Godwin through rose colored glasses, whats his value in 2019 rookie picks?
I just turned down 1.05 straight up for him.
Pre draft I would only want N’keal Harry ahead of him , would bump Jacobs ahead of him too if he landed in KC for example
Wow thats pretty bold isnt it?
Perhaps , odds are at least 2-3 players go on to have more prolific careers than Godwin but do I feel confident enough in any of them to take that gamble? No sir , at this point without k owing landing spots I like Harry better unless he ends up in Baltimore . I’d like Jacobs more if he landed on the Chiefs but outside of that I’d stick with Godwin because I know what he is a player that put up wr 2 numbers while being the 3rd/4th option in the passing game . With the uptick in targets I think he safely hits 70/1100/6 this year

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:18 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:17 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:51 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:31 pm


Yeah I disagree on this. Jameis has never been as bad as Bortles. Jameis’s issues have been turnovers. He got off to a bad start last season but was very good in 2017 and was also pretty good after he got his job back. Fitzpatrick outplayed him for about 4 games, not the season. Jameis had a 13-4 TD:INT ratio after coming back and a career high completion % and maintained a 7.9 YPA. His best days are ahead of him.
Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.
It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.
A-f'n-men. :clap:
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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:24 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:18 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:17 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:51 pm


Winston is a turnover machine and that will never change, IMO. TB was close to giving up on him. While Bortles is worse, Winston is never going to be a top tier QB. He is just not smart enough, on, or off the field.
It might not change but it definitely can. He’s only 24 lol. Jesus. Even if his INT% stays high, at around the 3% mark, it might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had rates in the 4% in the middle of his career. Roethlisberger threw 23 INT’s in his 3rd season, and then dramatically improved. Romo never had an INT rate below 3 during his first 3 years. Brett Favre owns the INT récord so who even cares. To say a QB can’t get better is just stupid though and further proof of the absurd expectations fans have on QB’s today. Everyone crowns these rookie QB’s who play well (Jameis, Baker, Mariota, Watson) or buries them (Goff), and tries to define their 15 year career after a couple seasons, and then flip flops the second they go through growing pains. It’s ridiclous. I really hope Baker doesn’t struggle in the NFL this year, fantasy owners will hate him forever.
A-f'n-men. :clap:
This isn't even remotely close to the same comparison, though. "FF owners will hate him forever?" That's laying it on a little thick. Baker had a better first year than Winston has ever had, and Winston is going into year 5. It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:26 pm

Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

:lol:

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:29 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:24 pm
It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.
Top QB in fantasy or NFL? I'd disagree if the former and agree if the latter. I think Arians is a massive improvement in terms of any QB coaching Winston has gotten before. This is a critical year for him. I expect Winston to improve to a significant degree, but his bad turnovers to reappear in crucial moments of games. I think it's too early to write Winston improving, but also think that believing the opposite isn't "stupid".
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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:34 pm

Pullo Vision wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:29 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:24 pm
It's my opinion that Winston does not possess what it takes to be a top tier QB. That's my opinion on 4 years of evidence, and it doesn't make my opinion "stupid". I think he has shown poor decision making throughout his career, and I think while it may improve some, it will always be an issue. I didn't say he can't get better, but I don't think he will improve enough to become a top tier QB. The guys track record of poor decision making on and off the field is a mile long. If Winston ever becomes a top tier QB, I would be absolutely shocked. He has shown no indication that is in his range of outcomes.
Top QB in fantasy or NFL? I'd disagree if the former and agree if the latter. I think Arians is a massive improvement in terms of any QB coaching Winston has gotten before. This is a critical year for him. I expect Winston to improve to a significant degree, but his bad turnovers to reappear in crucial moments of games. I think it's too early to write Winston improving, but also think that believing the opposite isn't "stupid".
Fair enough.

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esloan35
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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby esloan35 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:58 pm

This is a Godwin heat check post. Winston is serviceable and Godwin will be 🔥

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby IBall2 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:55 am

I've said it on a different post but I'll say it again on this one. I believe Godwin will be a top 15 WR this season. I sold 1.09 + James Washington a few weeks ago for Chris Godwin and I feel great about it.

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:13 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:26 pm
Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

:lol:
He had one miserable game last year where he caught something like 1 of 10 targets ... assuming that’s an outlier, I expect his catch rate to be much better this year.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| J. Allen, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, J. Ross
|TE| M. Gesicki, I. Thomas, T. Eifert, M. LaCosse
|K| G. Zuerlein, B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| D. Lawrence, Y. Ngakoue, C. Young, J. Clowney, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, A. Key, J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, I. Simmons, R. Foster, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, V. Joseph, T.J. Edwards, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Eguavoen (taxi), S. Ebukam, M. Jefferson, D. Cole, K. Beckwith
|CB| S. Gilmore, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| 2.05, 3.11, 5.15 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1 (x2), #2, #3
|2022 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:53 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:13 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:26 pm
Dude is an average NFL QB, imho. It doesn't really detract from the fantasy appeal of his WRs and TE. And I actually think with Arians there, that Tampa will have a good offense in 2019 and beyond. I own Goodwin in DLF Premium League, and I would not sell him for 1.05. That's absurd.

2017: 34/55 (61% rec per.) for 525 yards (15.44 yards per catch) and 1 TD
2018: 59/95 (62%) for 842 yards (14.27 ypc) and 7 TDs
My conservative projection for 2019: 74/120 (62%) for 1,110 yards (15 ypc) and 8 TDs (Arians loves bombing it deep)

That's 216 points in PPR (with 4pt TDs). Not elite #s, but mid WR2 #s in a 12 teamer, and high WR2 #s in a 16 teamer. And the guy just turned 23 in February!

Heck, I just convinced myself not to take 1.02 if it was offered to me!

:lol:
He had one miserable game last year where he caught something like 1 of 10 targets ... assuming that’s an outlier, I expect his catch rate to be much better this year.
From what I recall someone I follow on Twitter said 9 of the 10 targets were uncatchable. The one that was catchable, he caught.
Last edited by Bot101 on Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:59 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:38 pm
But same QB...
Yes. I do recall that week pretty vividly though. The Saints were all over Winston the entire game. He had no time to make a throw most of the game. I dont give Winston very many passes. But I gave him one that week.

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Re: Chris Godwin Heat Check

Postby TampaBay216 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:58 am

Agreed. Arians can only improve his situation. Godwins floor sits around back end WR2/WR3.
His ceiling, back end WR1.
I’m buying wherever I can, even overpaying in some leagues. Clear breakout coming here guys.
Winston will be Winston, but as long as Arians is coach and Winston is throwing it deep, there will be plenty of fantasy points to be had.
Team 1
12 team IDP Full PPR 32 players

QB: T. Brady J. Burrow
RB: S. Barkley, A. Kamara, J. Mixon, CEH
WR: M. Evans, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Cooper, C. Godwin, A.J. Brown, C. Lamb, C. Davis
TE: OJ Howard D. Geodert
DL: D. Hunter, S. Hubbard, B. Chubb
LB: P. Queen, R. Smith, J. Schobert
CB: H. Smith, H. Clinton-Dix, K. Neal

Team 2
12 Team Full PPR 23 players

QB: D. Prescott
RB: CMC, L. Bell, K. Johnson, A. Gibson,
WR: D. Adams, A. Robinson, T. McLaurin, C. Kirk, B. Cooks
TE: H. Hurst, B. Jarwin

Team 3
12 team IDP Full PPR 32 players

QB: M. Stafford, B. Mayfield
RB: S. Barkley, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, J. White, R. Jones
WR: C. Lamb, H. Ruggs, L. Shenault, P. Campbell, J. Reagor, C. Davis, V. Jefferson, M. Boykin, MVS
TE: G. Kittle N. Fant
LB: C. Littleton, G. Pratt, B. Okereke
DB: V. Bell, J. Reid, M. Hyde
IDPF: J. Bentley, N. Morrow, B. Goodson


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