Barkley Value Check

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Cult of Dionysus
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Re: Barkley Value Check

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:39 am

How insulated is SBs value... Just look at Ladanian Tomlinson, who still carries a 3rd round rookie pick valuation.

:lol:

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Re: Barkley Value Check

Postby ArrylT » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:01 pm

I get the sense that a lot of us (Barkley owners) are hopeful that the return of Eli Manning will see an increased role for Barkley in the passing game.

Which is interesting, because Daniel Jones has been better than many of us would have expected as a QB (imho).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Barkley Value Check

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:08 pm

I think Barkley & Kamara have the same issue ... high ankle sprain. No skill position player is ever the same player until the next year.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, , J. Ross, Da. Moore
|TE| J. Hollister, M. Gesicki, K. Rudolph, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| S. Gilmore, M. Peters, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| #1.03, 1.12, 3.02 & 6.15
|2021 PICKS| #1, #2, #3

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Re: Barkley Value Check

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:19 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:01 pm
I get the sense that a lot of us (Barkley owners) are hopeful that the return of Eli Manning will see an increased role for Barkley in the passing game.

Which is interesting, because Daniel Jones has been better than many of us would have expected as a QB (imho).
Which has been a negative for Barkley's receiving numbers because he buys more time with his legs to get something further down field or run himself, Eli doesn't have that ability so he quickly looks to dump it off to Barkley. That is something Jones will have to do better with next year, it will both protect Jones from holding the ball too long and getting stripped and be extra opportunities for their best player to make a play in space.

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Re: Barkley Value Check

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:21 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:08 pm
I think Barkley & Kamara have the same issue ... high ankle sprain. No skill position player is ever the same player until the next year.
Ya I have zero concerns about Barkley going forward, and think he's actually getting healthy now and will have a string finish to the year. Still the clear #1 overall player in 1QB formats in my eyes.

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Saquon Barkley

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:36 pm

Image

Anyone ever look at Barkley's college stats; specifically in his final year (above).

Take out his longest carry of each game.

Those 12 carries total 474 yards.
That leaves 186 carries for 660 yards.
3.5 yards a carry.

Rookie year in the NFL with the same criteria:
Longest carry in each game: 16 carries for 524 yards.
Remaining: 245 carries for 783 yards.
3.19 yards a carry.

I'm not sure what I'm trying to get at by this, but thought it was interesting. I still love the guy and enjoy having him on my team, but are we overlooking the stats?
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield, Cousins, (Luck)
RB: Saquon, Ezekiel Elliott, K. Drake, K.Hunt,Jamaal Williams, A.Peterson, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson,
WR: OBJ, B.Cooks, D.Parker, A.Humphries, C. Conley, D. Hamilton, T. Patrick,
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon
Taxi: I Smith Jr, R. Anderson
2020: 1st, (3) 2nds, 3rd, 4th
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby burntfire » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:41 pm

So... below average on the regular but can bust open a run for yardage? Even at 3.19 that is respectable behind that O-line.
14 Team, 2 QB Dynasty League, 1 Point PPR
2QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1 Flex, 3 IR

QB: Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Matt Moore, Chase Daniel
WR: Chris Godwin, A.J Brown, D.K. Metcalf, John Brown, Marvin Jones, Desean Jackson, Will Fuller, Antonio Brown, Allen Lazard
RB: Marlon Mack, Josh Jacobs, Carlos Hyde, Ronald Jones
TE: Will Dissly David Njoku, Dawson Knox, Jace Sternberger, Gerald Everett, Jacob Hollister

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby wingnutty » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:46 pm

I would expect every rb is buoyed by some long runs. At least I would hope so!

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:51 pm

It certainly is an interesting insight, but I would imagine you can do that with any speedster RB

I bet Chris Johnson was even more dramatic here
QB - DWatson(HOU)Winston(TB)Finely(DEN)
RB - TGurley(LAR)DJohnson(ARI)NChubb(CLE)DHenry(TEN)
WR - ODB(NYG)AJ Green(CIN)ACooper (DAL)CDavis(TEN)
TE - HHenry(SD)DGoeddart(PHI)
K - Zurlien(LAR)Badgley(LAC)
Def - JAGS DET
[rookie] NHarry(NE)MBrown(BAL)Haskins(WAS)

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2 - 2020's
Rosters must always be 3qbs 4wrs 4rbs 2tes 2kickers 2dst and protected players dont take up a roster spot, but are only for rookie/2nd year players that were drafted

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:58 pm

I don't get it. Idk about you, but I prefer my RBs to have long runs, not short runs. Why would we take away the plays in which Barkley does what he is supposed to do, and evaluate him based on everything else? There is no indication Barkley is losing his ability to break long runs, so I'm not sure why we'd discount that ability. Maybe you think all those runs were a fluke?
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Jimmy G
RB: Penny, Mattison
WR: K. Allen, Boyd, Hollywood, C. Samuel, Deebo, A. Miller, C. Davis, Washington, Ross, Pettis, Trequan
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, Everett, OJ
K: Legatron
Taxi: JJAW, Justice, Hurd
2020 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:03 pm

Thats why ypc doesnt matter. I had the exact same argument for Cook last year, and yet he is killing it this year... So who the heck knows, if the look good and produce just roll with it I guess? I dont have the time or care to perform this exercise across the league, especially considering if the longest run is 3 yards less than the longest it'll still be skewed. Maybe find stats on "explosive plays" then subtract it from the total find the ypc on that as the baseline ypc and compare to the total ypc then infer what you must to must about how dependent a RB is on explosive plays?
12 Team 20 man roster 4 reserve slots 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1WR/RB/TE 1K 1DEF
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister

Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:05 pm

This was always known about him, but he can score more points on one carry than a lot of RBs will in an entire game. Plus his rushing inly makes up like 60% of his value, he's just as special and dynamic as a receiver as he is as a rusher.

Edit: But it's not like that's the only way he can succeed. He just had his best game of the year, but his longest run was only 12 yards, and his longest reception was only 11 yards. He's not a between the tackles workhorse on the level of Zeke, but he can still play well in that role while doing things no one else can do. Clear #1 RB in the league in my opinion.
Last edited by bjd5211 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:11 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:03 pm
Thats why ypc doesnt matter. I had the exact same argument for Cook last year, and yet he is killing it this year... So who the heck knows, if the look good and produce just roll with it I guess? I dont have the time or care to perform this exercise across the league, especially considering if the longest run is 3 yards less than the longest it'll still be skewed. Maybe find stats on "explosive plays" then subtract it from the total find the ypc on that as the baseline ypc and compare to the total ypc then infer what you must to must about how dependent a RB is on explosive plays?
Or we can just recognize that making a long run is the entire purpose of running the ball, and instead of discounting a player for doing so, recognize that they are achieving the purpose of the game more often than others and are likely a better player because of it. If Frank Gore could boost his ypc by making long runs, I'm pretty sure he'd be doing it. I struggle to see the value in evaluating players based on what they'd be if they weren't what they are. Saquon has long runs, that's why he is Saquon. They aren't fluke plays.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Jimmy G
RB: Penny, Mattison
WR: K. Allen, Boyd, Hollywood, C. Samuel, Deebo, A. Miller, C. Davis, Washington, Ross, Pettis, Trequan
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, Everett, OJ
K: Legatron
Taxi: JJAW, Justice, Hurd
2020 Picks: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:22 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:11 pm
nathanq42 wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:03 pm
Thats why ypc doesnt matter. I had the exact same argument for Cook last year, and yet he is killing it this year... So who the heck knows, if the look good and produce just roll with it I guess? I dont have the time or care to perform this exercise across the league, especially considering if the longest run is 3 yards less than the longest it'll still be skewed. Maybe find stats on "explosive plays" then subtract it from the total find the ypc on that as the baseline ypc and compare to the total ypc then infer what you must to must about how dependent a RB is on explosive plays?
Or we can just recognize that making a long run is the entire purpose of running the ball, and instead of discounting a player for doing so, recognize that they are achieving the purpose of the game more often than others and are likely a better player because of it. If Frank Gore could boost his ypc by making long runs, I'm pretty sure he'd be doing it. I struggle to see the value in evaluating players based on what they'd be if they weren't what they are. Saquon has long runs, that's why he is Saquon. They aren't fluke plays.
Totally feel you, my thinking (not that I dont think Saquon is elite elite elite) is that if a RB is propped up on explosive plays, I'd reckon those would be the first to go once injuries and age take their toll? Obviously we are a long ways away from it for Saquon, just a hypothesis. But I think if you look at frank Gore, off the top of my head he was never a burner whose production was predicated on explosive plays, he made his money by getting the ugly yards consistently. Homie is playing at a solid level at 35... I dont think we could see that from someone who lives off of big plays, but that would take a lot more work than I care to put into it to figure it out. But Since I've been disproven by Cook, I'll just roll with whoever does well and has a solid average.

I think sample size is a key factor here. Saqoun doing that over a season is different from some schmuck doing it in one game know?
12 Team 20 man roster 4 reserve slots 1 ppr .2 points per carry
Garbage
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1WR/RB/TE 1K 1DEF
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
RB Rashaad Penny, Austin Ekeler, Royce Freeman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justice Hill
WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister

Picks
1.01, 1.04, 1.05, 1.07, 1.09
2 2021 firsts (both mid to late)

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Re: Saquon Barkley

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:26 pm

Offensive line was garbage. There’s no story here.


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