Saquon Barkley - Dynasty Discussion Thread

[Titans95]

There wasn't a single player I was willing to trade him for this offseason. Don't blame anyone for having someone else as their RB1, but it's an easy decision for me.

Point #4 is exactly why I'm such a fan. He's the only guy in the NFL able to make some of these plays. A better offense probably won't mean that much better production, but I feel like the offense won't really matter with him.

No I don't think a better offense will mean better production as both him and Gurley are already scoring an insane amount of points but a better offense could mean safer production from year to year and more TD's.

[Servo]

With how shitty Eli is, and how often he dumps it off to Barkley...yeah, I definitely wouldn't argue with 1.01 redraft or dynasty.

[kris_kapsner]

#1 is the biggest factor that Barkley should be taken #1 overall in dynasty formats. It's not like anyone in this conversation is getting old. But, 3 years on a RB's legs is significant. Gurley might produce at elite levels for another 5 years. Barkley may for another 8. I'll take my chances on the 8.

[Mjvb5]

Can't argue against it, give me any player to build around and TBH I'd take Bark

[Life of Pablo]

#1 or not, I'm just glad all the people during the summer that said "no way I'm using even a late 1st round startup pick on someone who's never played a single NFL snap" are looking dumb now. I don't even care if it's hindsight... every single player has risk. Props to anybody who took the risk making a big overpay to get him.

[chopping mall]

I said in another thread that I enjoy those threads where we all can go back and see how wrong we were. So lets do it for the 2018 season, we all have those takes that we're sure of. A few years ago we had the CJA would be the RB1, plenty of people willing to cast doubts on Barkley this year. So step up and plant your flag. What's your hot take? what position are you ready to be out there bold calling for everyone to give you props or laugh at you next year?

My Flag Planted
1. Barkley will be ranked dynasty RB1 in 2019

Whelp posting my opening post from my 2018 plant your flag thread, because for me this was obvious back in March.

[bjd5211]

#1 or not, I'm just glad all the people during the summer that said "no way I'm using even a late 1st round startup pick on someone who's never played a single NFL snap" are looking dumb now. I don't even care if it's hindsight... every single player has risk. Props to anybody who took the risk making a big overpay to get him.

I was easily taking him at 1.05 in startups this year, I was assuming the top 4 in most leagues would be Gurley, Zeke, OBJ and Nuk in some order. I honestly would have been comfortable taking him 1st overall though if I had any sense someone would take him before 5.

[chopping mall]

#1 or not, I'm just glad all the people during the summer that said "no way I'm using even a late 1st round startup pick on someone who's never played a single NFL snap" are looking dumb now. I don't even care if it's hindsight... every single player has risk. Props to anybody who took the risk making a big overpay to get him.

I was easily taking him at 1.05 in startups this year, I was assuming the top 4 in most leagues would be Gurley, Zeke, OBJ and Nuk in some order. I honestly would have been comfortable taking him 1st overall though if I had any sense someone would take him before 5.

I did a start up this year where we ranked our 1st round picks and I took 1.03 to ensure I got Barkley. Figured Gurley would be 1.01 and 1.02 would be Zeke.

[Vcize]

One of the biggest no brainer #1's there's ever been.

A 21 year old RB with great pedigree that is a 3 down player is scoring 26 points per game. How could he not be the consensus #1?

Gurley is great but 3 years is a substantial age difference for a RB, and he's much more dependent on being paired with a great system to be elite than Barkley who is doing it in a situation closer to the Jeff Fisher Rams that Gurley was a low RB2 in than to the mcvay Rams that Gurley has needed to be an elite player.

[Vcize]

#1 or not, I'm just glad all the people during the summer that said "no way I'm using even a late 1st round startup pick on someone who's never played a single NFL snap" are looking dumb now. I don't even care if it's hindsight... every single player has risk. Props to anybody who took the risk making a big overpay to get him.

I was easily taking him at 1.05 in startups this year, I was assuming the top 4 in most leagues would be Gurley, Zeke, OBJ and Nuk in some order. I honestly would have been comfortable taking him 1st overall though if I had any sense someone would take him before 5.

Yep I drafted him 1.04 and that was a SF startup to boot.

No regerts.

[smbkrypt24]

#1 or not, I'm just glad all the people during the summer that said "no way I'm using even a late 1st round startup pick on someone who's never played a single NFL snap" are looking dumb now. I don't even care if it's hindsight... every single player has risk. Props to anybody who took the risk making a big overpay to get him.

This was the same rhetoric that was posted about Zeke. I bought into it at that time as it made sense to me that if Zeke was valued at a first round startup he couldn't go any higher. The issue was that he was at the end of the first before he played and end of season he was near top and almost untouchable.
This year I bought hard into Barkley as I have never seen a better prospect than him. I am very glad I did as I see him as #1, but it's very close with Gurley.

[Cameron Giles]

Saw it coming. Barkley is just ridiculous. That said, RB values fluctuate so much because of injuries. So, being the #1 RB right now doesn't really mean a ton unless you're going to sell high. But, at his best he's a league winner each year.

[ArrylT]

Since Gurley still has 5 seasons to go before he turns 30 and Adrian Peterson was RB #2 in his age 30 year I personally do not care much about the 3 year age difference right now. Maybe in a couple of years - but right now I see no reason to put Barkley over Gurley due to age. If Gurley was 27-28 versus Barkley then I could understand that better but 5 years is a long time in dynasty and what Gurley looks like at 29 versus Barkley at 26 may not be that different than it is today - we shall see.

I am just not one to penalize a player for being in a good situation - after all is that not what we want from our players? I dont see anyone praising other players for being in awful situations ...

Of course if you have other reasons to rank Barkley over Gurley all well and good.

However I would not automatically assume that an offensive improvement would lead to a guaranteed increase for Barkley - after all there are only so many times you can target one player in a game before (a) risk of injury starts to increase (due to fatigue) or (b) the other team knows they only have to defend him. Rather an offensive improvement may see a decrease of Barkleys reception totals at a benefit of his rushing yardage.

In PPR would you prefer 1200 yards rushing, 600 yards receiving & 60 receptions or 900 yards rushing, 900 yards receiving & 90 receptions? Your yardage totals remain the same but you lose 30 points due to the loss of receptions.

I believe there have only been 2 total RB seasons with 400+ touches in the past 10 years - so I would not suddenly expect Barkleys volume to increase end over end as he's already on pace for like 330-340 touches this year alone. Both Bell & DJ had injury plagued years the year after they had 370+ and we saw how well DeMarco Murrays 400+ season worked out for him after that.

That does not mean Barkley will break down - just that I do not expect the Giants to feed him to the degree that could cause him to break down. So in order for his production to increase MAYBE he's going to need an offensive improvement AND fed in a way that does not turn his touches from receptions into rushes (unless you're in std or ppc).

Finally CMC is on pace for the same # of receptions as well. Maybe his floor is just as safe as Barkleys then?

In the end this is nothing against Barkley - I just do not feel it is safe to double count his forward value by penalizing Gurley for being in a better situation / older & at the same time projecting continued production growth for Barkley in a weaker situation. The good news is that Marshall Faulk rarely needed 400 touches to do what he did. So if the Giants offence can improve down the road AND Barkley becomes more efficient with his touches then yeah we could see a nice 3-4 year run of Faulk like production.

I think Cameron Giles says it best. So if you have Barkley over Gurley great, or vice versa great. Doubt you're selling 1 for the other without a + coming back your way, and either way you should have a league winner on your roster.

Also it should be noted in std & ppc leagues the point differential is greater between the 2.

[Dynasty_Analyst]

1a and 1b between Barkley and Gurley. 3 years I do think is significant as you see a lot of guys just not have it anymore after 5 or 6 years of taking a beating. I think AP is more of an outlier than the norm but Gurley is special so we will see. I started fresh this year with 2 new dynasties this year and took Barkley with 1.03 and 1.04 without a second thought. Only 2 I would have taken over him were Gurley and Elliot and they went 1 and 2 in both.

[XclickX]

I did a 12 team ppr start-up this year and it went :
1.01 Gurley
1.02 Barkley

I’m surprised he was falling to 5 in some of your start-ups. Definitely the dynasty RB1.