Josh Jacobs: Moving On Up

[tresskid84]

Right now, Raiders are looking like an average run blocking line (esp if Kolton improves to be even an average lineman) and have a capable QB. Gruden historically has used his rbs in the passing game a good amount. I think this is a good fantasy spot for him.

[ericanadian]

I’ll start this by saying, I’m not saying that Jacobs is overrated or that he’s going to bust, because I have no idea. I just think there is an aspect of him that is pretty much unprecedented and I’m surprised I’m not seeing more discussion on it. People mostly seem to focus on the fact that he wasn’t a starter, but in three years of college football, the most carries Jacobs had in a season is 120. I can’t think of a single other back who’s value is mostly associated with rushing who is even close to so few carries at their peak college volume. I think Mixon was the closest I found at 187 (and he also had way more receptions than Jacobs). There is Kamara, but he is clearly a different sort of back.

Meanwhile, literally every major site seems to believe that Gruden is going to run this guy like an old school lead back which means 200+ carries seemingly as a floor. I’m not sure this means anything, but it just seems very short sighted to put so much of the offense on a guy who’s never come close to this sort of workload. Maybe this is a positive and he didn’t waste wear and tear in the college ranks. Maybe he’ll hit a rookie wall similar to what used to happen when guys were getting more volume at the NFL level and then be fine going forward. Maybe his college production is all small sample size in a perfect situation and he’ll fold like Toby Gerhart going to the Jags. I guess no one is suggesting he’s risk-free, but as the consensus number one RB in this draft, I’m surprised there is such a huge gap in his credentials and was curious to get other people’s thoughts on this.

[TB3falcons]

I think Jacobs was in an extraordinary situation. He was a 3 star recruit going to Bama with multiple other highly rated recruits playing his position, including the 2 5-star recruits he split time with. Damien Harris went on to be a 3rd round selection and I’d imagine Najee Harris will be a likely day 2 selection next year. The fact that Saban used him at all speaks well for his ability. Who knows how it’s going to play out. He has the build and I like his film. Unsure about the athletic traits-had an injury he was dealing with during the combine and maybe even his pro day (4.6 40).

It will be an interesting case study for sure.

[Ice]

The NFL liked his lighter than normal workload; Especially the Raiders.

Jacobs excelled in power conference. It doesn’t take a scout 300 carries to know if a back has it or not.

Bama is loaded annually with NFL talent.

Sanders didn’t have much of a college career either sitting behind Barkley.

QB’s get drafted with some regularity these days with minimal college starts.

College stats of volume production doesn’t really mean much these days.

Teams want talent that translates to scheme. They will get plenty of experience at the NFL if the talent translates.

The game is vastly different in the NFL. Pretty obvious Jacobs was growing into a man last season.

Jacobs has all the tools to be a star.

Power, vision, soft hands, excellent pad level, and cuts well in the 2nd level.

Time will tell but the sky is the limit.

[Phaded]

While I will concede that the tape and sample size for him is very small..

That also means that the Raiders get the rare benefit of a running back prospect coming in with very little wear & tear. That doesn't happen often. With all of these RBs consistently breaking down in their second contracts, I think the lack of a beating he has taken is a huge plus.

The Raiders are going to make him a bell-cow three-down back and as Ice mentioned, Bama continually churns out good backs.

Time will tell, but the lack of a sample size is certainly his biggest question mark.

[ArrylT]

I think very little is made of the fact that he played much of his 2nd season on a broken ankle - which could have had a contributing factor to a lower workload in 2017, and a slow start to 2018.

[FantasyFreak]

I think Jacobs was in an extraordinary situation. He was a 3 star recruit going to Bama with multiple other highly rated recruits playing his position, including the 2 5-star recruits he split time with. Damien Harris went on to be a 3rd round selection and I’d imagine Najee Harris will be a likely day 2 selection next year. The fact that Saban used him at all speaks well for his ability. Who knows how it’s going to play out. He has the build and I like his film. Unsure about the athletic traits-had an injury he was dealing with during the combine and maybe even his pro day (4.6 40).

It will be an interesting case study for sure.

Ran 4.52-4.56 at his 2nd pro day (hand timed)

[Hottoddies]

Josh Jacobs looked great in the limited time he put in at Alabama, and while it's nice that a back has less wear and tear coming into the pros, I would be concerned that his body isn't use to the physical demands that come with being a bellcow in the NFL. He just might hit that rookie wall earlier than other runningbacks.

[Pet_Smith]

I think very little is made of the fact that he played much of his 2nd season on a broken ankle - which could have had a contributing factor to a lower workload in 2017, and a slow start to 2018.

Had absolutely no idea that was the case! Very good information, and yes I think would certainly be a contributing factor. Also says a lot to his overall "toughness".

[DJB]

While I will concede that the tape and sample size for him is very small..

That also means that the Raiders get the rare benefit of a running back prospect coming in with very little wear & tear. That doesn't happen often. With all of these RBs consistently breaking down in their second contracts, I think the lack of a beating he has taken is a huge plus.

The Raiders are going to make him a bell-cow three-down back and as Ice mentioned, Bama continually churns out good backs.

Time will tell, but the lack of a sample size is certainly his biggest question mark.

Since 2000
Sean Alexander - Pro Bowl, possible HOF
Ahmad Galloway - Who?
Kenneth Darby - Who?
Leron McLain - Pro Bowl x 1 as a FB
Glen Coffee - Bust
Ingram - Slow progression Pro Bowl x 2. Currently an RB 2
Trent Richardson - Bust
Lacy - Pro Bowl x 1 but overall a bust
Yeldon - Hasn't lived up to the hype
Fowler - Bust
Henry - Hasn'tlived up to the hype . Currently an RB 2
Drake - RB 2
Bo Scarborough - Looking like a bust



To me it's a very unimpressive list.

[dynastyninja]

Agreed, him being an Alabama back isn't a plus in my book. Georgia? Yes. Alabama? No.

[Bot101]

While I will concede that the tape and sample size for him is very small..

That also means that the Raiders get the rare benefit of a running back prospect coming in with very little wear & tear. That doesn't happen often. With all of these RBs consistently breaking down in their second contracts, I think the lack of a beating he has taken is a huge plus.

The Raiders are going to make him a bell-cow three-down back and as Ice mentioned, Bama continually churns out good backs.

Time will tell, but the lack of a sample size is certainly his biggest question mark.

Since 2000
Sean Alexander - Pro Bowl, possible HOF
Ahmad Galloway - Who?
Kenneth Darby - Who?
Leron McLain - Pro Bowl x 1 as a FB
Glen Coffee - Bust
Ingram - Slow progression Pro Bowl x 2. Currently an RB 2
Trent Richardson - Bust
Lacy - Pro Bowl x 1 but overall a bust
Yeldon - Hasn't lived up to the hype
Fowler - Bust
Henry - Hasn'tlived up to the hype . Currently an RB 2
Drake - RB 2
Bo Scarborough - Looking like a bust



To me it's a very unimpressive list.

Exactly. This list shows that Bama RBs get a bump in the draft simply because of the team they play for.

[FantasyFreak]

While I will concede that the tape and sample size for him is very small..

That also means that the Raiders get the rare benefit of a running back prospect coming in with very little wear & tear. That doesn't happen often. With all of these RBs consistently breaking down in their second contracts, I think the lack of a beating he has taken is a huge plus.

The Raiders are going to make him a bell-cow three-down back and as Ice mentioned, Bama continually churns out good backs.

Time will tell, but the lack of a sample size is certainly his biggest question mark.

Since 2000
Sean Alexander - Pro Bowl, possible HOF
Ahmad Galloway - Who?
Kenneth Darby - Who?
Leron McLain - Pro Bowl x 1 as a FB
Glen Coffee - Bust
Ingram - Slow progression Pro Bowl x 2. Currently an RB 2
Trent Richardson - Bust
Lacy - Pro Bowl x 1 but overall a bust
Yeldon - Hasn't lived up to the hype
Fowler - Bust
Henry - Hasn'tlived up to the hype . Currently an RB 2
Drake - RB 2
Bo Scarborough - Looking like a bust



To me it's a very unimpressive list.

Exactly. This list shows that Bama RBs get a bump in the draft simply because of the team they play for.

Sorry, what round were guys like Bo Scarborough taken in?

To the original post. Fowler was a fullback, taken in the 4th round. Glen Coffee retired after a year to serve in the army. To say these guys "busted" is silly. I won't even bother with the rest, because I agree Alabama isn't exactly RB U, and Georgia seems to be the school that continually churns out good RB's. I think Jacobs has the makings of an excellent pro, though.

[Bot101]

Since 2000
Sean Alexander - Pro Bowl, possible HOF
Ahmad Galloway - Who?
Kenneth Darby - Who?
Leron McLain - Pro Bowl x 1 as a FB
Glen Coffee - Bust
Ingram - Slow progression Pro Bowl x 2. Currently an RB 2
Trent Richardson - Bust
Lacy - Pro Bowl x 1 but overall a bust
Yeldon - Hasn't lived up to the hype
Fowler - Bust
Henry - Hasn'tlived up to the hype . Currently an RB 2
Drake - RB 2
Bo Scarborough - Looking like a bust



To me it's a very unimpressive list.

Exactly. This list shows that Bama RBs get a bump in the draft simply because of the team they play for.

Sorry, what round were guys like Bo Scarborough taken in?

To the original post. Fowler was a fullback, taken in the 4th round. Glen Coffee retired after a year to serve in the army. To say these guys "busted" is silly. I won't even bother with the rest, because I agree Alabama isn't exactly RB U, and Georgia seems to be the school that continually churns out good RB's. I think Jacobs has the makings of an excellent pro, though.

I agree with some of what you said regarding the other RBs. But the makings of an excellent pro, I dont fully see it.
He had a very reduced workload and still had a hard time staying healthy. Minimal college production. Not very athletic. Needed 2 pro days and still put up below average numbers. I just think hes going to be a volume dependent RB. Not to mention the Raiders arent the best team right now.

[ArrylT]

Obviously bust is going to be subjective. Personally about half of the players listed as bust or potential bust I would not consider bust from my perspective. Just like the word that Phaded used - good - can be subjective. It is not like he used the word 'elite' or 'generational'.

Regardless considering the hit rate on rookie picks, to look at that list and know that you got 50% chance of at least 1 RB2 season from that list of Alabama backs is actually a safe bet, especially on the cost of acquisition (which for most of the players on that list was not that high). You'd need to show the same list for all the other major NCAA schools like Clemson, Wisconsin, Georgia & so forth to make a better argument that Alabama backs do not have a history of success in the NFL.

For example here is the list for Georgia (but allowing for each owner to determine for themselves who is or is not a bust):

2018 1 31 31 Sony Michel New England Patriots RB
2018 2 3 35 Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns RB
2016 7 21 242 Keith Marshall Washington Redskins RB
2015 1 10 10 Todd Gurley St. Louis Rams RB
2011 7 17 220 Shaun Chapas Dallas Cowboys RB
2009 1 12 12 Knowshon Moreno Denver Broncos RB
2008 6 6 172 Thomas Brown Atlanta Falcons RB
2003 3 13 77 Musa Smith Baltimore Ravens RB
2003 7 28 242 J. T. Wall Pittsburgh Steelers RB
2002 5 31 166 Verron Haynes Pittsburgh Steelers RB
2000 7 33 239 Patrick Pass New England Patriots RB