Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
jetsfan5757
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:33 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:09 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:10 pm
I've been on the regression bandwagon for a while now.

But he's doing this against the best pass defenses in the NFL, without his number 1 option, and elevating people like Demarcus Robinson and rookie speedsters like Mecole Hardman to stud status. I'm done doubting him. He might even be better than peak Aaron Rodgers.
Welcome to the show. I don't blame anyone for doubting him a little before. But by now, you have to realize he's special
I came here to say something similar.

I bend the knee.
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Brees, Winston, Darnold
RB (3): David Johnson, N. Chubb, D. Guice, D. Henry, T. Coleman, C. Thompson
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, D. Pettis, P. Williams
TE (2): H. Henry, O.J. Howard, I. Thomas

K (1): Wil Lutz

DB (1): Landon Collins
LB (1): Luke Kuechly
DL (1): JJ Watt

PS: I often don't revisit a thread after posting. Send me a message if you ever want further thoughts on a comment I made.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby mild » Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:56 am

ArrylT wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:25 am
mild wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:14 pm
mild wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:49 am
I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread if he just picks right up where he left off.

I think it's reasonable to expect Andy and Pat in Year 2 to have made strides in their scheme, and to have new wrinkles available thanks to his newfound familiarity with running the offense.
Bump :D
Apologies for spoiling your thunder. :ewink:
No thunder to spoil when it's going like this... I've been lighting my league on fire through 3 games, get a load of my sig. 8-)
10 team .5 PPR SF

QB - P. Mahomes, L. Jackson, T. Brady, M. Mariota
RB - N. Chubb, D. Guice, A. Ekeler, R. Penny, M. Ingram, R. Mostert, J. Samuels, C. Edmonds
WR - M. Evans, T. Hill, C. Sutton, Juju, A.J. Brown, Hakeem Butty
TE - H. Henry, OJ Howard, I. Thomas, Jonnu Smith
Taxi - D. Goedert, D. Thompson, K. Doss, R. Anderson

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:52 am

I'm finally a part of the Patrick Mahomes club. I have him in a 6 PPPTD, -2 INT league. It's awesome. He's single-handedly dragged my team from worst to first.

I'm gonna enjoy this ride for a long time.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby UATahoe » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:14 am

I know in 1 Qb leagues most people say Qb is replaceable but man Mahomes really challenges that theory. He gives me such an advantage in every matchup. Im not sure what I would have to be offered to think about selling but it’s waaaayyyyy more than what you would normally expect for top tier Qb’s in a single Qb league. lol. The dude is unbelievable.
12 Team PPR League 1Qb 2Rb 3Wr 1Flex 1Te 1Def 1K

1 QB Mahomes, Dak Prescott
2 RB Mixon, Kamara, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Justice Hill, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
3 WR Godwin, K. Allen, A. Cooper, S. Watkins, DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, Kelvin Harmon, Martavis Bryant, Core Coleman(IR) Preston Williams(IR)
1 TE Mark Andrews, H. Henry, H. Hurst, Ian Thomas, Goedert
D/ST Bears
K Zane Gonzalez

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jcc6fd » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:19 am

UATahoe wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:14 am
I know in 1 Qb leagues most people say Qb is replaceable but man Mahomes really challenges that theory. He gives me such an advantage in every matchup. Im not sure what I would have to be offered to think about selling but it’s waaaayyyyy more than what you would normally expect for top tier Qb’s in a single Qb league. lol. The dude is unbelievable.
You’re right to value him above consensus in a 1QB league. He’s legitimately a league winner. Even if his stats are down one year he has the skill set to maintain an elite floor and will maintain potential for those epic seasons for a while.

People who were talking about regression weren’t watching the games
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Darnold, D. Jones
RB: Gurley, Fournette, Cook, Guice, Lindsay, D. Henderson, Bernard, M. Brown, J. Jackson
WR: Julio, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Edelman, Ty Williams, MVS
TE: Kelce, Cook, McDonald
IR: B. Love

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Phaded
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:50 am

I know we're only 3 weeks in, but it's hard to see a situation in which his fantasy production slows down. Almost all of their offensive production comes from the passing game, and even with teams knowing that is coming - they aren't able to stop it.

I was wrong.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am

I don't know if there's ever been a player who has been this far ahead of the rest of the players at his position in value. Maybe Gronk? But even at his peak he had Jimmy Graham putting up huge numbers too, and later Kelce got close and eventually surpassed him.

I would strongly consider Mahomes as a mid-late 1st round pick in a 1QB startup draft at this point, he's just that big of a difference maker and positional advantage.

All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:58 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:53 am
I don't know if there's ever been a player who has been this far ahead of the rest of the players at his position in value. Maybe Gronk? But even at his peak he had Jimmy Graham putting up huge numbers too, and later Kelce got close and eventually surpassed him.

I would strongly consider Mahomes as a mid-late 1st round pick in a 1QB startup draft at this point, he's just that big of a difference maker and positional advantage.

All that being said, there has to be some amount of statistical regression coming at some point. He'll still be the best pick every year for leading fantasy in scoring and be the top QB, but he'll have "normal elite years" like 4,500/35 TDs rather than "historically elite years" like he put up last year and is on pace for this year. Or maybe I'm wrong and he's going to be the QB/football version of Wayne Gretzky and completely obliterate every statistical mark and lap the field.
Aaron Rodgers had that distinction for a good 3-4 year stretch it seemed. Obviously the numbers aren't nearly as good as what Mahomes is doing, but NFL offenses have changed so much since then.

That said, I would not draft Mahomes in the 1st round of a 1QB Dynasty startup. I think it can be justified more in standard leagues than PPR, but the format of the league doesn't require you to reach that high on the position. You'd have to ask yourself if you can still find quality at WR/RB afterwards if you spend your first pick on a QB.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:42 am

I would rather slightly over pay and get my guy for the life of the league than try and hold off for "a more appropriate" draft slot and end up missing out. My primary concern during startups is not immediate contention, I want to lay the foundation for team that will be strong for years to come. By taking Mahomes I can essentially forget about the QB position for the remainder of the draft and all future drafts and focus on the other positions. I will have plenty of opportunities and time to find quality RBs and WRs, but there is only 1 Patrick Mahomes.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:48 am

As for Rodgers you're right he was the undisputed #1 QB for a few years, and there have been other guys who have been the near undisputed #1 at their position. I just don't think there's been any that have been this far ahead of the #2.

For example it's pretty widely accepted that Barkley is the current #1 overall RB, but the gap between him and Zeke/CMC/Kamara is a lot smaller than the gap between Mahomes and any other QB.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:06 pm

Multiple Scorgasms wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:03 am
Here's a couple stats for you. WOW.

899 yards passing
8 TD

(IN THE FIRST HALF OF GAMES)

When KC goes conservative in the 2nd half to protect a lead* (see below)

296 yards
2 TD

* KC 1st half play mix
Week 1: 8 run/20 pass
Week 2: 8 run/26 pass
Week 3: 8 run/25 pass

KC 2nd half play mix
Week 1: 18 run/14 pass
Week 2: 14 run/18 pass
Week 3: 18 run/12 pass

Just imagine if the D was as bad as last year and they needed to keep passing in the 2nd half. His stats would be absolutely out of this world.
Andy Reid is such a hand job. Why let off the gas? Why allow teams a chance to come back at all? Matt Nagy is the same. They coach scared in the second half. It's like they get a lead, and then go to turtle offense while just praying they come out on the winning end.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:12 pm

^^With all fairness, it's a clock management and risk management thing - it is not about coaching scared. You also want to give your defense some breathing room, if you score too fast it can be detrimental to your defense and team overall (see the Chip Kelly era in Philly). You also don't want Mahomes to have his arm fall off by the time the games that matter come about, or open him up to more hits from the opposing defense when it is not necessary.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm

Phaded wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:12 pm
^^With all fairness, it's a clock management and risk management thing - it is not about coaching scared. You also want to give your defense some breathing room, if you score too fast it can be detrimental to your defense and team overall (see the Chip Kelly era in Philly). You also don't want Mahomes to have his arm fall off by the time the games that matter come about, or open him up to more hits from the opposing defense when it is not necessary.
I will just allowed Andy Reids playoff record speak for itself. He is a good game planner first half, and then he coaches scared the second half. It proves to fail him year after year when it matters. I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Goirish374 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm

TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm
I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby TheNuts » Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:46 pm

Goirish374 wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:36 pm
TheNuts wrote:
Sat Sep 28, 2019 12:27 pm
I also have never heard of a qb burning out his arm from passing too much. It's not like pitching.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-nfl-te ... 1503323944
Thanks for that. I didn't realize it's an issue. But Brady and Brees are proving that it's still nowhere near the issue it is in baseball.

Reid can use the excuse that he has never won a super bowl because he didn't want his qbs arm getting tired in the second half of games?


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