Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

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Forza_Azzurri
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:24 pm

It’ll be interesting to see what the Chiefs do in the draft ... if they add a Hollywood or Paris Campbell as a poor-man’s Hill, then I don’t think Mahomes’ drop off will be that significant.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1) | DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock, E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, J. Mixon, L. Murray, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, M. Gallup, , J. Ross, Da. Moore
|TE| J. Hollister, M. Gesicki, K. Rudolph, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| S. Richardson, Q. Williams, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, J. Pierre-Paul, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, N. Gerry, M. Kendricks, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), D. Cole (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| S. Gilmore, M. Peters, D. Trufant, G. Conley, B. Jones, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:35 pm

Forza_Azzurri wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:24 pm
It’ll be interesting to see what the Chiefs do in the draft ... if they add a Hollywood or Paris Campbell as a poor-man’s Hill, then I don’t think Mahomes’ drop off will be that significant.
That’s a good point. We can’t expect anyone to do what Hill did, but they could easily add a Brandin Cooks type athlete to their team (Campbell) if Hill is gone.

Not saying Campbell is Cooks. College production matters. They are similar in their measurable athletics, though, from the precursory looks I’ve taken.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dynastyninja » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:51 pm

Ice wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:10 pm
dynastyninja wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am
Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
Based on What?
He's apparently in the conversation for top 2 or 3 Dynasty QB for a lot of people. I think he's a good QB, but not in the elite tier. Sophomore slumps are a real thing in the NFL. Teams will have a good amount of tape and plenty of time to prepare for him this season. Part of his hype is because he's helping to turn around the Browns, who are easily the most entertaining story in the NFL.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:06 pm

I think it's very reasonable to project regression from 50 TDs.

-12 seems a little severe, though, especially if KC's defense doesn't dramatically improve overnight. Even assuming KC loses Hill for some length of time, Mahomes is a transcendent talent that makes the receivers around him more productive. I think it's more fair to say Hill and Kelce owe the best seasons of their career to Mahomes than the other way around.

I don't think I see the logic in predicting he'll throw more interceptions with fewer pass-attempts and yards. Last year, Kelce and Hunt/Williams were Mahomes' target safety-net more so than third-level target heavy Hill.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:12 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:06 pm
... I think it's more fair to say Hill and Kelce owe the best seasons of their career to Mahomes than the other way around.
Yeah absolutely, but Hill still really helps open things up, a lot.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Ice » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:13 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:51 pm
Ice wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:10 pm
dynastyninja wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am
Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
Based on What?
He's apparently in the conversation for top 2 or 3 Dynasty QB for a lot of people. I think he's a good QB, but not in the elite tier. Sophomore slumps are a real thing in the NFL. Teams will have a good amount of tape and plenty of time to prepare for him this season. Part of his hype is because he's helping to turn around the Browns, who are easily the most entertaining story in the NFL.
His tape was outstanding as a rookie. He actually had 6 games with over a 100 rating and 7 games over a a 67% completion percentage.
Of course teams have tape on him but the Browns also have tape on those teams and now have a personnel advantage on both sides of the ball over most teams.

While he could regress that is more of feeling than fact based IMO. I can see some having him that high in dynasty given the long term outlook of his skill set. That is a bit high for me given their balanced attack but I am confident his numbers will improve with Odell. That was a significant signing and will open up players all over the field and Mayfield is an extremely accurate passer. I expect a bump of 10-12 TD's for Baker.

_______
Mahomes may regress a little but still expect 40 plus TD's. if the team can keep their offense together and healthy.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:15 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:12 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:06 pm
... I think it's more fair to say Hill and Kelce owe the best seasons of their career to Mahomes than the other way around.
Yeah absolutely, but Hill still really helps open things up, a lot.
Definitely.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:41 am

Another trait Mahomes and baker share is elite pocket awareness. They hang in there and then bail at the right time and have enough maneuverability to sidestep a rusher and then have the ability to throw accurate passes on the move. These are two of the best young QBs we’ve seen. They both have an elite career trajectory.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby JFever » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:06 am

Valhalla wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:12 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:06 pm
... I think it's more fair to say Hill and Kelce owe the best seasons of their career to Mahomes than the other way around.
Yeah absolutely, but Hill still really helps open things up, a lot.

I think it is entirely reasonable to be of the mind set that each of the skill position players on that offense owe their statistical performance to the weak / porous KC defense. It is incredibly plausible that Mahomes production drops, and a 12 td decline is WAY more than possible. It is likely. KC WILL assuredly address some of their defensive deficiency in this draft. Mahomes is great and all, but, game script has an influence on play calling, and play calling has a strong connection to fantasy production. So.... with a little unbiased rational thought, one can easily understand why we will see regression.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:38 am

JFever wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:06 am
Valhalla wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:12 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:06 pm
... I think it's more fair to say Hill and Kelce owe the best seasons of their career to Mahomes than the other way around.
Yeah absolutely, but Hill still really helps open things up, a lot.

I think it is entirely reasonable to be of the mind set that each of the skill position players on that offense owe their statistical performance to the weak / porous KC defense. It is incredibly plausible that Mahomes production drops, and a 12 td decline is WAY more than possible. It is likely. KC WILL assuredly address some of their defensive deficiency in this draft. Mahomes is great and all, but, game script has an influence on play calling, and play calling has a strong connection to fantasy production. So.... with a little unbiased rational thought, one can easily understand why we will see regression.
I don’t know. There were several games last year that I saw where the chiefs were winning handily in the fourth and they were stilll airing it out and passing for more tds. This is a passing offense and Reid likes to throw and throw some more. I don’t know if it matters how good the defense is. And even if they draft all defense this draft they will be rookies. This defense could potentially be worse. A dc and philosophy change, no chemistry, no ford or Houston and all they have added is a honey badger. Maybe I missed other defense additions but they have holes everywhere on that side of the ball

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:59 am

Manning got 49 TDs followed by 28 next year, years later 55 TDs followed by 39 the next year. Peyton never saw 40 again.

Brady got 50 TDs followed by 28 his next healthy year and never saw 40 again.

Rodgers got 45 followed by 39, only 1 other season with 40 TDs.

Drew Brees got 46, 43, 39 in consecutive years, next highest total was 37.

Mahomes was RIDICULOUS last year. I think he is and will be an elite passer. I also realize that the NFL is a passing league now for numerous reasons, the rules being first and foremost. However, I am not ready to believe that he will make history or borderline history every season!!!

There have been 20 times in the HISTORY of the NFL where a QB has thrown for more than 38 TDs. Only 11 times has a QB thrown more than 40 TDs. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... season.htm

Expectations for Mahomes are ridiculous. Even with a healthy Kelce, a non-suspended Tyreek, and Hunt still there I would be screaming from the rooftop that regression is coming. I would not be shocked if he got 38-40, but I think 37 or less is a more likely outcome. If I had to make a guess, I would say 35.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby JFever » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:06 am

True. I can see that as well. But, I'll then add to that. It is really a fine line that the Chiefs are walking here. If you have a sports car and you day in and day out beat the piss out of it. You likely will not have that sports car for long. Significant injuries do happen and if Reid's offense is going to play like it is behind even when it is ahead, and they are going to do that consistently, You can bet your bottom dollar that it will not be tolerated and someone, somewhere is going to get drilled. Now, off the field things also happen. Hunt is now gone, Hill - yet to be determined. If people fail to see the interdependence of these moving pieces, so be it, but, I can assure you that they are connected and dependent on each other.

The offense and their numbers last year was VERY impressive. I think that it was a result of a perfect storm. Many things coming together toward a result. I"m not taking away from Mahomes talent at all. I think he is the #1 dynasty Qb. But, contrary to many, I don't think there will be the gap between he and say Luck, Wilson, Mayfield, Wentz, (+/- top 5 ish...) et all.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:08 am

The Patriots also used to continue to run up the score that year the Brady & Moss led team scored what was then the most points in an NFL Season (now 2nd). Many coaches believe that no score is too great to overcome. Considering Brady & Manning have overcome 21+ deficits it seems more of a sign of respect these days, and to ensure your team doesnt get into a habit of coasting, to keep the pedal to the floor.

The Chiefs season is now the 3rd highest points scored season, behind only that of Manning 2013 and Brady 2007. The Greatest Show On Turf (ie the team that started it all) is now 10th.

Of the top 12 highest points scored (excluding 2018 Chiefs & Rams) - all of them have come within the past 20 years. 4 of them have been New England Patriots with Brady and the rest include Rodgers, Brees & Manning. The last time a QB led the league with less than 30 TDs is 2002. 6 of the past 8 seasons, a QB led with 40+.

As such, it does seem safe to believe that the new norm will equate to Mahomes - so long as he is the heir apparent to Manning/Brady/Brees for fantasy statistical production - at least coming close to repeating this production, even if 2019 leads to regression due to factors like Hill, Hunt, improved defence, etc.

In other words - some regression is due - how much will be determined by all the variables - but recent history has obviously shown that scoring is on the rise, is likely to remain on the rise, & that this is a feat that is now more duplicable than ever before.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby djeternal2 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:21 am

To add to ArrylT's point 6 of the 11 40+ season have been in the last 10 years and you can tack on another 2 seasons of exactly 40 making it 8 of 13 seasons of 40 or more passing TDs in the last 10 years. Based on that trend I would say 40 or more will become more common going forward especially if the NFL continues the trend of creating rules to help the offense because the casual fan likes scoring.
10 tm ppr 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE, K, TDEF (Yr 6)
QB - Ryan, Wentz
RB - Gurley, A Jones, Cohen, Kerryon, Dam Williams, Duke, I Smith, Armstead, T Carson
WR - AJG, Watkins, ARob, A. Cooper, K Allen, M Williams, Godwin, Callaway, JJAW
TE - Gesicki, I Smith, Herndon, Eifert, Sternberger, Dissly

10 tm TE prem 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, K, 2 DB, 2 DL, 2 LB (Yr 5)
QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz,
RB - Zeke, Chubb, Kerryon, Duke, Edmonds, B Hill
WR - Nuk, AJG, ARob, JJS, Samuel, MVS, T Smith, D Hamilton, Gallup, K Johnson
TE - Njoku, Eifert, Herndon, I Smith, I Thomas, Moreau
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QB - A Rodgers, Darnold, Rosen, M Rudolph, Luck
RB - Dam Williams, J Howard, Crowell, Duke, AP, Gore, B Hill
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Ice » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:26 am

The league is really helping QB's and the game is changing. I actually expect Mahomes passing attempts to increase this season. He was 7th in the league in attempt last year. 95 fewer attempts than Big Ben who ranked first.

When it comes to passing TD's; 40 is the new 30 :D


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