Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
jetsfan5757
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby jetsfan5757 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:28 am

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am
And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.

Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
I was in the camp saying to expect regression. I still do. And I agree that variables like injury (not just Mahomes, but to linemen and skill players) make it impossible to put up 50 TDs every year.

But I also firmly believe Mahomes will get to 50 again. Not every year. But I'd be shocked it he doesn't do it at least 1 more time. Doing it twice more wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.

I think the real point of any Mahomes thread should be: is he the QB1 right now in dynasty and is it close. The answers are yes QB1 and no it's not close.

Caveat to above statement is people paying prices for him as if he will get 5,000 and 50 every year. That's just dumb.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Weknownothing86 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:58 am

jetsfan5757 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:28 am
Weknownothing86 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am
And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.

Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
I was in the camp saying to expect regression. I still do. And I agree that variables like injury (not just Mahomes, but to linemen and skill players) make it impossible to put up 50 TDs every year.

But I also firmly believe Mahomes will get to 50 again. Not every year. But I'd be shocked it he doesn't do it at least 1 more time. Doing it twice more wouldn't surprise me, but also wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't.

I think the real point of any Mahomes thread should be: is he the QB1 right now in dynasty and is it close. The answers are yes QB1 and no it's not close.

Caveat to above statement is people paying prices for him as if he will get 5,000 and 50 every year. That's just dumb.
Only reason i dont think he will get 50 again isnt because of his talent, its great talent. However you truly need the perfect mixture of things to happen in order to reach that. Only 3 Guys have done it. Two are in the top 3 Qbs ever discussion. Brady needed top talent like Moss and Welker and Manning needed Welker, and in his prime DT along with others to throw that many TDs. You just need a great mixture of things and so much to go right in order for that to happen again. Mahomes is young where as the other 2 were far older when they did it so i could be wrong but its just much harder to do than i think many seem to believe.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:27 am

Was never betting on him to throw for 50 again, but won't be surprised me at all if he does. This injury changes nothing as far as his dynasty value, he's still easily the #1 QB.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:26 pm

Well the good news is it looks like surgery will be able to be put off until the off season. The bad news is his knee cap can more easily come out again, and he'll be less than 100 percent the rest of the year. Personally, I think they should hold him out until after their bye if they can, and have him return week 13.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:27 pm

I'm a Raiders fan, so obviously my feelings about the Chiefs are clear.

Mahomes is fun to watch though, and a dislocated kneecap has the potential to derail an entire career.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby thebeast » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:41 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:27 am
Was never betting on him to throw for 50 again, but won't be surprised me at all if he does. This injury changes nothing as far as his dynasty value, he's still easily the #1 QB.
I don’t think he is easily QB1, heading into this week he was like QB5 or something. I think Watson is just as talented. Before tearing his acl he was lighting up the league at the same rate or better than Mahommes did last year. Now that he is fully healthy he is showing that he is very capable. If Lamar takes another step with his passing he will be truly scary from a fantasy perspective and his Floor will be higher than any other QB do to his running and his ceiling will be astronomical. I have no problem if someone values Mahommes as QB1 but I don’t think is easily and I don’t think there’s a big gap in the top tier that I would include Wilson in too.

Also I don’t see how injury is an excuse re: playing on a bad ankle... that is the NFL, everyone plays banged up. If a player needs ideal conditions to reach their potential then they won’t reach it very often.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby territdown33 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:20 pm

thebeast wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:41 pm
bjd5211 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:27 am
Was never betting on him to throw for 50 again, but won't be surprised me at all if he does. This injury changes nothing as far as his dynasty value, he's still easily the #1 QB.
I don’t think he is easily QB1, heading into this week he was like QB5 or something. I think Watson is just as talented. Before tearing his acl he was lighting up the league at the same rate or better than Mahommes did last year. Now that he is fully healthy he is showing that he is very capable. If Lamar takes another step with his passing he will be truly scary from a fantasy perspective and his Floor will be higher than any other QB do to his running and his ceiling will be astronomical. I have no problem if someone values Mahommes as QB1 but I don’t think is easily and I don’t think there’s a big gap in the top tier that I would include Wilson in too.

Also I don’t see how injury is an excuse re: playing on a bad ankle... that is the NFL, everyone plays banged up. If a player needs ideal conditions to reach their potential then they won’t reach it very often.
I think the difference with Mahomes and the rest of the pack is that it doesn’t matter who he plays with. He’s a solid bet for 300+ and 2-3 TDs per game as his floor.

He doesn’t need a strong rushing attach or all NFL WRs to put up numbers

Sure Watson and Jackson are solid options but they both have their limitations and I really don’t think they would continue to shine if they lost some of their Key WR corps the way Mahomes has. Maybe I’m off base but Mahomes to me is the unquestioned QB1 in a tier by himself


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