Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

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Forza_Azzurri
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Forza_Azzurri » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:49 am

Weknownothing86 wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:33 am
If they used Damien Williams more he would be averaging 70 Tds a year
That’s only if he through to him 70 times.

16 Team PPR | QB (1) RB (2-4) WR (2-5) TE (1-2) K (1)| DT (1-2) DE (2-4) LB (2-5) CB (3-6) S (2-5)

|QB| R. Wilson, J. Allen, D. Carr, D. Lock (IR), E. Stick (taxi)
|RB| A. Kamara, J. Jacobs, L. Murray, M. Walton, J. Mixon,, J. Adams, R. Anderson (IR)
|WR| C. Godwin, D.J. Moore, M. Gallup, D.K. Metcalf, M. Goodwin, Da. Moore, J. Ross (IR)
|TE| M. Gesicki, T. Eifert, I. Thomas, M. LaCosse, R. Gathers, R. Gronkowski
|K| B. Maher
|DT| Q. Williams, S. Richardson, T. Bryan, T. Hill (taxi)
|DE| J. Clowney, Y. Ngakoue, D. Barnett, T. Charlton, E. Ansah, A. Key, J. Pierre-Paul (IR), J. Sweat (taxi)
|LB| L. Vander Esch, D. Trevathan, C. Holcomb, M. Kendricks, N. Gerry, S. Dion Hamilton, S. Ebukam, T.J. Edwards, D. Cole, M. Jefferson, V. Joseph (IR), R. Foster (IR), K. Beckwith (IR), S. Eguavoen (taxi)
|CB| B. Jones, S. Gilmore, M. Peters, G. Conley, D. Trufant, G. Haley
|S| M. Fitzpatrick, T. Walker, X. Woods, E. Thomas, E. Murray
|2020 PICKS| #1 (x2), #3, #5, #6
|2021 PICKS| #1, #2, #3, #6

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby doublesticks » Mon Oct 07, 2019 11:58 am

It's hard to judge the offense right now because guys like Robinson and Pringle have gone from luxury options to the top 2 WRs due to injuries and Kelce looks like a shell of himself for some reason.

The way that team is put together, they have to spread you out with the pass in order to run...they couldn't protect last night with their duct tape and string OL, so the pass wasn't there and obviously, neither was the running game.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:07 am

If I am honest with myself, despite being a Raiders fan, I was sort of hoping Patrick Mahomes would avoid the TD regression that was expected - and the early season signs were indeed positive. However unfortunately it is likely that there is going to be some regression.

His updated pace is now approx 38 TDs. We shall see though - a couple of 5 or 6 TD performances could change things - but with road games against the Patriots & Bears coming up it is not a sure thing.

However yardage wise he is still on pace to break his 2018 total (5097) - as his pace is close to 5600 yards. I think that he'll definitely reach 5000 yards again.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:14 am

All he really needs is a 2-3 game stretch of averaging 4+ TDs to get back to his pace from last year. Which sounds kind of ridiculous for most QBs, but obviously isn't for him. I've said all along that he was obviously going to regress from last years totals, but 35+ TDs and 4,500+ yards is a realistic expectation for him every year, and he is on track to easily reach those numbers like you said. Those numbers are about what the average #1 overall QB puts up in scoring every year when you take the Brady/Peyton/Mahomes mega years out.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Weknownothing86 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:59 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:14 am
All he really needs is a 2-3 game stretch of averaging 4+ TDs to get back to his pace from last year. Which sounds kind of ridiculous for most QBs, but obviously isn't for him. I've said all along that he was obviously going to regress from last years totals, but 35+ TDs and 4,500+ yards is a realistic expectation for him every year, and he is on track to easily reach those numbers like you said. Those numbers are about what the average #1 overall QB puts up in scoring every year when you take the Brady/Peyton/Mahomes mega years out.
Yes definitely. The people who were saying 55 + TDs were just absolutely insane and idk where they got that logic from? But he will def stay in the 35+ 4,500+ range for a long time. I also think many thought he would be just fine without Hill, when he was not. I hate Hill but the guy can play and needs to be taken into account for Mahomes production.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am

The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.

This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Weknownothing86 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:20 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.

This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
I can make an argument that injuries are a natural part of the game of football, so yes it is natural.
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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:32 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.

This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
You could argue his situation last year was unnatural if you really want to go down this road.

NFL Network brought up a good point with Mahomes - it's fine for fantasy but not so much in real life. On short downs like 3rd & 4 he is constantly looking for the big play over the first down - seems like that shootout / college football mentality. When it works out it's fine, but sometimes you should just be getting that first down.
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:12 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:14 am
The dude has been playing on a bum ankle for a few weeks, and his O-line is in tatters.

This isn't a "natural" regression. It's UNnatural.
It's definitely been a factor, the bigger factor the last 2 weeks has been time of possession, he can't put up numbers if he doesn't have the ball.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby doublesticks » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:20 am

I think something missing in this argument is his lack of scrambling to pick up a 1st down or to keep a play alive...remember last year all of the highlights of him throwing off the run? Well, right now, he can't run like that.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:27 am

doublesticks wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:20 am
I think something missing in this argument is his lack of scrambling to pick up a 1st down or to keep a play alive...remember last year all of the highlights of him throwing off the run? Well, right now, he can't run like that.
He's still an excellent QB and fantasy performer without his legs, it's just a temporary set back.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby doublesticks » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:18 am

oh I know, he is a stud, but the time of possession is getting flipped because his legs kept MANY drives alive last year.

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ArrylT » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:10 pm

It is a shame that their bye week is Week XII - you definitely do not want to risk making that ankle injury worse. Regardless I think he should be fine long term - just too bad that the regression whether natural, unnatural, supernatural or whatnot is likely - would have been fun to see him repeat 50 tds back to back since it would obviously be a NFL 1st.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:44 am

ArrylT wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:10 pm
It is a shame that their bye week is Week XII - you definitely do not want to risk making that ankle injury worse. Regardless I think he should be fine long term - just too bad that the regression whether natural, unnatural, supernatural or whatnot is likely - would have been fun to see him repeat 50 tds back to back since it would obviously be a NFL 1st.
It does suck for him and owners. Although owners aren't too hurt by this and I still would easily put money that he is the 1st QB to hit 50 TD twice
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ballage, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Hamilton, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2020: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Penny, Hunt, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Deebo, Diontae, KeeSean, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1, 2, 2
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Weknownothing86 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:33 am

And this is why you dont bet on a guy getting 50 TDs again. There are way too many variables and injury is one of them. The Brady 2008 injury comes to mind. On paper he was set up to have another great season of possibly 50 plus Tds, then in one play Brady is out for the season. Wasnt himself due partially to recovering from the ACL in 2009, then Moss is gone in 2010 and there goes any hope of 50 Tds.

Mahomes doesnt have an ACL obviously but will most likely miss a few weeks. Missing a few weeks gives him no shot at 50 TDs and who knows if he has the offensive talent around him to throw 50 Tds again next season or any season after that? I hope Mahomes recovers and can be 100 percent, he is a great player and he can go on to have a great career but the whole 50 TD thing again was ridiculous. I dont think he ever does it again in his career. 35+ sure, but not 50, just way too many variables need to go your way for that to happen. I was stunned at the amount of people here and in real life who thought he could do it again.
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