Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11108
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:46 am

So Mahomes is the QB1 in Dynasty by most. While most would estimate a regression based on his numbers from last year, a few more things have now come into the equation. The loss of Kareem Hunt, and no sure fire RB1. The impending loss of Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce quietly had off season surgery on his ankle.

What are we projecting for this offense with all of this, and where do we see Mahomes numbers?

I say 4500 and 38/15 if Hill is gone.

Where ar you at?
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 23-5

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Carson, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, Sproles
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Ian Thomas, Clay

ItsHandsomeDave
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 11, 2015 1:11 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby ItsHandsomeDave » Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:56 am

7500 yards, 65 tds and 19 supermodels

RotateThatFish
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 201
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby RotateThatFish » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am

Those numbers are reasonable and without knowing the exact figures off hand, he’d still be in the mix for QB1 next year.

Knowing KC ‘should’ address the defence this year; they could look to the offence again next year following a shake up of Hill / Williams this season and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Team 1: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 3Flex

QB: Watson, Cousins, Rosen, Brissett, Teddy
RB: Gurley, Conner, Ingram, Sanders, White, Murray, M.Davis
WR: Hopkins, Julio, DJ Moore, Boyd, Chark
TE: Vance, Cook
Picks: 2020: 2, 3, 4

Team 2: 12 Team, 0.5PPR, Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1RB/WR

QB: Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, Tannehill
RB: J. Howard, J. Williams, G. Edwards
WR: Adams, Evans, Juju, Kupp, Ridley, Gallup, Slayton
TE: Goedert, Herndon, I. Smith
Picks: 2020: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

Team 3: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, 6pt TDs, +1 for 40yd TDs [All], Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, Brees, Dalton
RB: R.Freeman, Ekeler, L. Miller, Hines
WR: Thomas, Fuller, Pettis, Shepard, Crowder, Stills, Chark, Sanu
TE: Kelce, Hooper, Fant
Picks: 2020: 1, 2, 2

User avatar
Jason3123
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3004
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jason3123 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:18 am

I think it’s more than likely he never reaches 50 TD’s again. Fully anticipate a drawback in 2019 but even a massive regression would still leave him as a top 5 QB so it’s all good.

User avatar
Valhalla
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4346
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:45 am

RotateThatFish wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am
...and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Notably higher than most anyone else.

I think Mayfield is in the discussion to possibly put up the best year this year, though. Comparing the two:
Mahomes 36.25 attempts per game at a 66% completion rate with 8.8 yards per attempt, 3.125 TDs per game.
Mayfield 36 attempts per game at a 63.8% completion rate with 7.7 yards per attempt, 2 TDs per game.

Two big differences: 8.8 vs 7.7 is pretty big, and so is the touchdown rate. Those things put Mahomes over the top of everyone else.
But...consider Mayfield was throwing to Landry Callaway and Njoku as his top options and played part of the season in a limiting Jackson offense.
Mahomes was throwing to Hill Kelce and Watkins playing in an offensive system (mostly the presence of Tyreek) that helped Alex Smith look excellent downfield. Smith has a long, established career average 6.9 (probably ~6.7 without Hill) that spiked to 8 ypa with Hill and Kelce.

Now consider...that script may be entirely flipped with recent developments.

Mayfield gets Beckham, Mahomes loses Hill. That’s a very big value switch for both players, as you should expect Beckham to raise Mayfield’s Y/A and the potential loss of Hill to lower Mahomes’.

Huh
Starter
Starter
Posts: 520
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:03 am

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Huh » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:50 am

One trait that Mahomes and baker share is that they push it down field whenever possible. I can’t tell you how many times I thought they overthrew an open guy only to hit a different reciever 15 yards further down field. That’s something arodg does. It’s a trait that all the greats share.

User avatar
dynastyninja
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2921
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:17 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dynastyninja » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am

Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.

User avatar
Valhalla
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4346
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:05 am

dynastyninja wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am
Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
I dunno...he had arguably the greatest statistical college season of all time following that up by arguably the greatest rookie statistical season of all time. I don’t think he’s just another hyped 2nd year qb.

Cameron Giles
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8716
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:25 am

So if he regresses this year, then he bounces back the next

User avatar
dm1129
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1277
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:10 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby dm1129 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:23 am

If Tyreek is gone, it is significant for Mahomes. I am a huge believer in Mahomes, however Tyreek Hill was the perfect WR for him to have. There simply is no one in the league with Hill's unique abilities. Because of this, there is a synergy between Mahomes and Hill. Both are excellent alone, but together they are great. Defenses were panicked by Mahomes as the season progressed and tried almost anything to confuse him and nothing worked, so I do not see him slumping because defenses 'figured him out'. He has shown a great ability to process reads very quickly. Even on plays where a defense was able to disguise what they were doing, Mahomes' escapability and arm allowed him to still make plays. If Tyreek is gone, then Mahomes' stats next year will likely suffer. On the plus side for fantasy, Mahomes had nearly 100 fewer pass attempts than Big Ben. There is room for Mahomes to have more pass attempts while not being as exceptionally efficient with those attempts because of the possible loss of Hill. Long-term, I think he will have multiple 5k yard seasons and very possibly 50+ tds seasons. It is a new era in terms of passing rules, and Mahomes is special.

Sidenote: Baker is outstanding and further proof we are in a new era of passing in the NFL.

User avatar
Valhalla
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4346
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:26 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Valhalla » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:39 am

dm1129 wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:23 am
...we are in a new era of passing in the NFL.
Agreed.

The QBs coming in over the last few years and into the future grew up in qb training camps, going to sports performance clinics, getting personal qb coaches, and basically are just better trained/practiced from the start than even high level guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger likely ever were. They are arriving more prepared. Also, more coaches are opening things up more than ever before.

honcho55
Captain
Captain
Posts: 831
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:45 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby honcho55 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:46 am

Sucks, I was one of the guys banging the table saying he would not necessarily regress. But with Hunt and possibly Hill gone, it seems inevitable. He’s still my dynasty QB1 but it’s not so far separated from Watson/mayfield/Wilson/luck anymore.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -4 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. Roster 15, 2 IR. keep 10 every year (must keep one each pos) *transitioning to more keepers/full dyno over a couple years

QB: Wilson, Carr
RB: E Elliot, D Henry, M Ingram, R Armstead, M Brown, R Mostert
WR. O. Beckham, J Smith-Schuster, M Thomas, P Williams
TE. T Kelce, D Goedert

2020 picks: three 1sts, three 3rds
(Project 1 top 3, one early-mid, one mid-late)
2021: two 1sts, three 2s, 3, two 4s
2022: three 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, 5th

RotateThatFish
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 201
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby RotateThatFish » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:09 am

Valhalla wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:45 am
RotateThatFish wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:21 am
...and Mahomes has shown his ceiling to be notably higher than anyone else.
Notably higher than most anyone else.

I think Mayfield is in the discussion to possibly put up the best year this year, though. Comparing the two:
Mahomes 36.25 attempts per game at a 66% completion rate with 8.8 yards per attempt, 3.125 TDs per game.
Mayfield 36 attempts per game at a 63.8% completion rate with 7.7 yards per attempt, 2 TDs per game.

Two big differences: 8.8 vs 7.7 is pretty big, and so is the touchdown rate. Those things put Mahomes over the top of everyone else.
But...consider Mayfield was throwing to Landry Callaway and Njoku as his top options and played part of the season in a limiting Jackson offense.
Mahomes was throwing to Hill Kelce and Watkins playing in an offensive system (mostly the presence of Tyreek) that helped Alex Smith look excellent downfield. Smith has a long, established career average 6.9 (probably ~6.7 without Hill) that spiked to 8 ypa with Hill and Kelce.

Now consider...that script may be entirely flipped with recent developments.

Mayfield gets Beckham, Mahomes loses Hill. That’s a very big value switch for both players, as you should expect Beckham to raise Mayfield’s Y/A and the potential loss of Hill to lower Mahomes’.
Great points and I agree there’s every chance Mayfield has the better year. However, his ceiling is still theoretical whereas Mahomes has shown he can throw 5000 yards and 50 TDs. He may not do it again, particularly with the issues in his supporting cast, but it might be possible in the future.
Team 1: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 3Flex

QB: Watson, Cousins, Rosen, Brissett, Teddy
RB: Gurley, Conner, Ingram, Sanders, White, Murray, M.Davis
WR: Hopkins, Julio, DJ Moore, Boyd, Chark
TE: Vance, Cook
Picks: 2020: 2, 3, 4

Team 2: 12 Team, 0.5PPR, Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1RB/WR

QB: Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, Tannehill
RB: J. Howard, J. Williams, G. Edwards
WR: Adams, Evans, Juju, Kupp, Ridley, Gallup, Slayton
TE: Goedert, Herndon, I. Smith
Picks: 2020: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4

Team 3: 12 Team, PPR, TE Premium, 6pt TDs, +1 for 40yd TDs [All], Superflex. Year 1.
QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex

QB: Mahomes, Wilson, Stafford, Brees, Dalton
RB: R.Freeman, Ekeler, L. Miller, Hines
WR: Thomas, Fuller, Pettis, Shepard, Crowder, Stills, Chark, Sanu
TE: Kelce, Hooper, Fant
Picks: 2020: 1, 2, 2

Jigga94
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6022
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:55 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:25 am
So if he regresses this year, then he bounces back the next
This. I wouldn't say he hits 5000 and 50 every year, no way... but to say he never his 1st full year numbers EVER again is a bit naive
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck (IR)
RB: Sony, D. Freeman, Penny, Ballage, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, Julio, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Parris, Hamilton, Preston (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2020: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Cam (IR)
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Penny, Hunt, J. Samuels, J. Jackson
WR: D.J. Moore, Mike Will, Hollywood, C. Davis, MVS, Deebo, Diontae, KeeSean, AB, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki
2020: 1, 2, 2
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

Ice
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1952
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Patrick Mahomes: Natural regression

Postby Ice » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:10 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:55 am
Mayfield strikes me as a massively overrated young QB who is good but gets a huge bump because he's only a sophomore. It seems to happen every year a rookie QB does well.

Don't tell him I said that, though. He might use my opinion as much-needed motivation.
Based on What?


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bjd5211, Lumps, nathanq42, PTW32, StripesOfKC and 11 guests